Friday, February 13, 2009

Trader's Comment: The return of BULL

The “bull” fiercely returned again as it touched 2000 level amid previous short sellers aggressively covered their position after got caught on squeeze. Benchmark Apr09 opened RM9 higher at 1937 and rallied all the way up through out the day, tracking the improving external factors as eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm rose steadily after bouncing back from their overnight losses. The plan to protest by Argentine farmers and coupled with some weather concern had also prompted traders to speculate on the CPO prices. Technical buying also helped to push the market after 1900 level was defended well during the last couple of trading days. Benchmark Apr09 hit the intra day high at 2000 before it finally settled RM67 higher at 1995.

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine farm groups to meet, map out protests

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers, locked in a long-running dispute with the government over farm policies, will meet Thursday to finalize plans for fresh protests that are not expected to affect soy exports.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks staged a late rally to close mostly higher on Thursday after Reuters reported the Obama administration was working on a program to subsidize mortgage payments for troubled homeowners.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher while the Dow industrials retraced losses to close slightly lower as investors starved for good news bet the government had taken a big step toward stabilizing the housing market.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> shed 6.77 points, or 0.09 percent, to end at 7,932.76. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 1.45 points, or 0.17 percent, to 835.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 11.21 points, or 0.73 percent, to 1,541.71.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell for the fifth straight session on Thursday, sliding to the lowest settlement in nearly two months as oil demand worries persisted a day after government data showed U.S. crude
supplies rose sharply last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled down $1.96, or 5.45 percent, at $33.98 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Dec. 19's $33.87. It traded from $33.55 -- a new contract low and lowest since Jan. 20's $32.70 -- to $36.25.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 9-1/2 cents at $9.68-1/2 a bushel.

Improved crop weather this week in Argentina, firm dollar, lower crude oil and falling stock market adds pressure with market underpinned by big U.S. soy exports.

USDA baseline report pegged 2009 soy acres 74.0 million, down from 75.7 million last year. Soy production for 2009 forecast 3.110 billion bushels, up from 2.959 billion.

Drier and hotter weather expected to increase stress on Argentine crops over the next 5-7 days especially in areas that did not receive rainfall this week.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March down 0.35 cent at 32.83 cents a pound. Falling crude oil weighs on soyoil prices.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm futures were mostly little changed on Thursday as fears of weakening demand in coming weeks pared earlier gains from falling domestic inventories.

Benchmark April contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 3 Malaysian ringgit to 1,928 Malaysian ringgit ($534.2) after going as high as 1,945 ringgit.

Other traded contracts mostly fell marginally, although the Sept. contract edged higher <0#KPO:>. Overall volume stood at 10,276 lots of 25 tonnes.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Thursday as investors offloaded financials such as Singapore's United Overseas Bank and Malaysia's Bumiputra as the latest U.S. moves to tackle the financial crisis left investors cold.

Singapore led the regional losses, with the Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closing down 2.15 percent, erasing recent gains.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> also fell for a second day, down 0.3 percent, with Sime Darby Bhd losing 1.7 percent.

FCPO Daily: 1900 mark defended


1900 mark continue to provide support and looks market may extend its tight range trading again. We are now looking the upside resistance at 1967-1969 followed by 1981-1998. Downside support is pegged at 1900-1880 followed by 1860-1850.