Monday, August 11, 2008

KLSE supported at 1120

Looks like 1120 pretty supported after tested few times yet manage to defend. We continue to look for the gap left over 1116-1112.5 (gap left over on end-July, 2008). Resistance remained at 1140-1150.

Can you see the bottom in FCPO hourly?

I can't see it yet. We now look for the immediate support at 2520-2600. For upside, immediate resistance at 2728-2779 (gap left over this morning).

FKLI hourly broke the upper band of triangle

FKLI hourly broke the upper band of the triangle and triggered the buy stop at 1125. Looks market defended well at 1106.5-1108.0 after last week tested few times but yet to break. For upside, we look for the resistance at 1143-1143.5.

USD/MYR broke the overhead resistance at 3.280

USD/MYR broke the overhead resistance at 3.280 easily and appears in the up-swing mode, likely to challenge the overhead resistance at 3.35-3.36 level.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks soared on Friday rounding out their best week in more than three months, as oil plunged below $115 a barrel, easing inflation concerns and improving prospects for business and consumer spending.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 302.89 points, or 2.65 percent, to 11,734.32, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> jumped 30.25 points, or 2.39 percent, to 1,296.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 58.37 points, or 2.48 percent, to 2,414.10.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures closed nearly $5 lower on Friday as the dollar rallied on concerns about slowing European and Asian economies, feeding worries about lower oil demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude settled down $4.82, or 4.02 percent, at $115.20 a barrel, after trading between $114.90 and $120.08. The settlement was the lowest since May 1's $112.52 and the day's low was the lowest since crude hit $111.78 on May 2.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - August down 44 cents at $11.99 per bushel;new-crop November down 58-1/2 at $11.80-1/2.

Nearly ideal crop weather in the U.S., rallying dollar and falling crude oil to weigh on market. Traders hesitant to hold a position in the market before weekend and Aug. 12 USDA crop report.

Ahead of Aug. 12 crop report, the average analyst estimate for 2008 U.S. soy production seen at 3.001 bln bushels, basically unchanged from USDA's July forecast for 3.0 bln. U.S. soy 2008/09 ending stocks seen at 141 mln bushels vs USDA forecast of 140 mln bushels.

SOYOIL - August down 1.70 cents at 50.39 cents per lb.Pressed by weakness in crude, palm oil.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Aug 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures tumbled more than 2 percent on Friday as faltering crude oil dimmed prospects for vegetable oil-based biofuels, heightening concerns about slowing demand, dealers said.

The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 66 ringgit down, or 2.32 percent, at 2,779 ringgit ($842) a tonne on Friday.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Aug 8 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian markets fell on Friday.

Singapore <.FTSTI> and Malaysia <.KLSE> edged 0.9 percent lower, while Jakarta <.JKSE> dipped 0.1 percent.But the Philippines <.PSI> and Vietnam <.VNI> bucked the trend to rise 0.3 and 1.2 percent respectively.

DJI Weekly: Soared to close in best week for more than three months

DJI soared to close in best week for more than three months with a long white candle. We continue to look for the resistance and support at 11924.19 and 11125-11157 level respectively in near term.

Friday, August 8, 2008

Trader's Comment:CPO futures surrendered all early gains to end broadly lower

CPO futures surrendered all early gains to end broadly lower due to lack of followthrough buying and pre-weekend position squaring and also ahead of official July08 supply and demand data scheduled to be released on Monday (11/08/2008) by MPOB. Price was slammed down to 2767 in late afternoon session before it settled RM66 lower at 2779.

FCPO Weekly: FCPO dived into deep blue sea

FCPO prices continue to dive into deep blue sea with no sign of recovery. We now look for the 1st support at 2680-2700 followed by 2523-2530. For upside, resistance is at 3030-3045.

FKLI Weekly: Market remained in bearish atmosphere

After the last week of long upper shadow candle, market has failed to hold well and re-enter to the downtrend zone with a long black candle. Consolidation phase may take place in near term. We continue to look for the support at 1083.5-1086.5. While, resistance is at 1187 followed by 1200.

KLSE Weekly: Market reversed some early gains

Market reversed some of it early gains with a long black candle printed on KLSE weekly chart. KLSE was failed to hold after the last week's rebound to the high of 1164.64. Thus, market may due for consolidation in near term. We look at the immediate resistance at 1164.64 followed by 1189.25. Support is pegged at 1090.39-1089.47

FCPO is covering hourly upside gap

FCPO continue its yesterday's mission to cover the hourly upside gap. Market may continue to cover the remaining gap left over at 2864-2890. Support is at 2780-2772 (gap left over on 7th Jul, 2008).

FKLI stuck in a triangle for hourly and waiting for break out

FKLI broke the neckline support, it then hovering and forming a triangle pattern. We still need to watch out closely for a break out in order to have clearer direction. We remained the resistance and support at 1124 and 1106.5-1103.5 level respectively.

Market view: maintain short with buy stop at 1125.

KLSE manage to defend at 1120?

KLSE has been tested few times at 1120 and yet manage to defend. We will see if 1120 violated, market may want to cover the downside gap at 1116.4-1112.6 (gap leftover on end-Jul, 2008). While, Resistance is at 1129-1130 followed by 1138.18.

FKLI momentum weak

Market momentum getting weaker after prices violated the neckline support at 1117 yesterday. Market looks facing resistance at 1124. For downside, support is pegged at 1106.5-1103.5 (remaining gap left over on end-Jul, 2008) followed by 1095-1092.

Market view: maintain short position with buy stop at 1125.

Breaking News-RTRS-POLL-Malaysia July palm reserves seen slipping from record

RTRS-Malaysia's end-July palm oil stocks seen down 2.2pct from June at 1.99 mln tonnes-Reuters POLL.
RTRS-Malaysia's July palm oil output seen up 2.1pct from June-POLL.
RTRS-Malaysia July palm oil export seen up 26.8pct from June-POLL

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled on Thursday after a big loss from insurer American International Group fueled fears of more fallout from the credit crisis and Wal-Mart's cautious sales forecast added to concerns about consumer spending.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slid 224.64 points, or 1.93 percent, to close at 11,431.43, led lower by Wal-Mart and AIG.The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 23.11 points, or 1.79 percent, to 1,266.08, while the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 22.64 points, or 0.95 percent, to 2,355.73.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher on Thursday, stemming three days of losses, as pipeline shutdown in Turkey due to an explosion raised supply worries.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, September crude settled up $1.44, or 1.21 percent, at $120.02 a barrel, trading from $117.91 to $121.78.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose nearly 2 percent on Thursday, lifted by a recovery in crude oil and rival soyoil markets.The benchmark October contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 55 ringgit, or 1.97 percent, at 2,845 ($866.5) ringgit a tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-JAKARTA, Aug 7 (Reuters) Weak commodity prices weighed on plantation shares in Indonesia, where the Indonesia Composite Index <.JKSE> ended up 0.54 percent, and in Malaysia, where the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index <.KLSE> fell 0.36 percent.
Singapore's Straits Times Index <.STI> dropped 1.82 percent, dragged down by shipbuilding and repair company Cosco Corp .

DJI in double top formation

DJI in double top formation following prices failed to sustain at the higher end. Market may move lower in near term. We continue to look for the resistance at 11698. Support is remained at 11210-11221 followed by 11128-11125.

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Trader's comment:Commercial buying interest coupled with stronger e-CBOT lifted the BMD FCPO prices

Commercial covering at the underlying cash market and recovery of overnight losses in CBOT (e-CBOT up 150 points at one stage) provided the excuse for the technically oversold market to due for correction. According to a trader, quite an active destination sales in the last few days as prices had drop substantially where this may have attract the consumer buying interest. 3rd month Oct08 settled RM55 higher at 2845 after trading between 2735 to 2851.

FCPO fully covered upside gap

Market fully covered the upside gap left over on 4th-6th Jul, 2008 at 2803-2820 and surged to close near the day high with printed a long white candle. Looks may target another gap left over on 1st-4th Jul, 2008 at 2897-2935. Downside support is pegged at 2700-2710.

FKLI extended losses in two straight days

Market tested the immediate support at 1110-1109 in intra-day basic but managed to close above it. However, market momentum getting weaker following prices extended losses in two straight days. Hence, the immediate resistance remained at 1143-1146 and immediate support pegged at 1110-1109 followed by 1095-1092.