Monday, September 22, 2008

DJI Weekly: bottom out?


Market reversed up from the fresh year low to end higher. More support confirmation is needed in order to change the current bearish atmosphere. Support and resistance is at 10459 and 11924-11939 level respectively.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Uncertainty about the workings of the government's $700 billion bank bailout drove U.S. stock index futures and bond futures lower Sunday evening as Asian markets got ready to start the week.

The dollar weakened against the yen on concerns that government borrowing will exacerbate the U.S. budget deficit as it needs to issue more debt to finance its rescue plan to buy bad mortgages from financial institutions.

Negotiations between Congress and U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson ratcheted up over the weekend after the administration and U.S. congressional leaders began swapping proposals.

On Friday the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 368.75 points, or 3.35 percent, at 11,388.44. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> advanced 48.57 points, or 4.03 percent, to 1,255.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shot up 74.80 points, or 3.40 percent, to 2,273.90.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 6 percent higher on Friday, rising for the third day in a row, on hopes that a comprehensive U.S. government plan can help stabilize battered financial markets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October crude settled up $6.67, or 6.81 percent, at $104.55 per barrel, trading from $97.39 to $105.25.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November up 27-1/2 cents at $11.43-1/2 per bushel, January up 29-1/2 at $11.59-1/4.

Rallying on rebound in stock market after U.S. government bailout of financial sector. Soy market seen as oversold and due for a bounce. Improved U.S. crop weather hangs over market.

SOYOIL
- October up 2.48 cents at 46.92 cents per lb.Following soybeans and crude oil higher.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures jumped 3.6 percent on Friday as crude oil prices went through the key $100-a-barrel level, traders said.

The benchmark December contract rose as much as 78 ringgit to 2,263 ringgit ($654) before settling at 2,259 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks leapt on Friday as investors turned positive on hopes of a long-term cure for global market turmoil, with financials such as Singapore's DBS and Bangkok Bank driving gains.

Indonesia <.JKSE> jumped 5.8 percent to its highest in a week. Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 3.4 percent but failed to recoup the week's losses, giving up about 2 percent this week. The Philippine index <.PSI> and Vietnam <.VNI> both swelled 4.7 percent, though Vietnam is still down over 52 percent since the year started.

Trader's Comment:Pre-weekend covering and technical play led CPO futures to end generally higher.

Pre-weekend covering and technical play led CPO futures to end generally higher. Technical players were buying and locking at the gap between 2180 to 2240 which left over on 16th Sept 08 to be filled. Sentiment also changed from neutral to supportive after yesterday's strong performance. Market just needed some correction since the slump in this week was a bit too sharp. It dived from early of the week high at 2341 to 2020 yesterday. Steady NYMEX crude oil prices trading in Asian time zone also provided some speculative buying element. Earlier, prices were trading in negative territory due to market talks that 1-20 Sept08 export will be lower by 8% down from same period in August08's figures at 904,645 tonnes (ITS). However, market was rather steady in the afternoon session trading steady crude oil also some commercial buying interest at the underlying cash market. Late aggressive covering activities push prices to cover technical gap and hit intra-day high at 2263 before it settled RM74 higher at 2259.

Friday, September 19, 2008

FCPO: Gap to be covered?


A strong finish after prices attempt to challenge the psychological support at 2000. It touched 2020 and bounce strongly to finish at the intra-day high and cover partial gap between 2180 to 2240 which leftover on 16/9/2008. Market may want to try to fill it up given the good performance of yesterday’s finish.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 18 -Wall Street had its best day in six years on Thursday as news the government is considering a more comprehensive solution to the financial crisis than the current piecemeal approach spurred a furious late rally.

Responding to the week's gut-wrenching upheaval of the financial system, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has been shopping around a proposal to congressional lawmakers that would create an entity to deal with the billions of dollars of bad debt still clogging the financial system, a congressional aide said.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 410.03 points, or 3.86 percent, to 11,019.69, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 50.12 points, or 4.33 percent, to 1,206.51.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 16 - U.S. crude oil futures ended nearly 5 percent lower on Tuesday, down for the second day in a row, as investors continued to seek safer havens amid continued turmoil in global financial markets that's seen further
undermining fuel demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October crude settled down $4.56, or 4.76 percent, at $91.15 a barrel, the lowest since Feb. 8, after trading from $90.51, also the lowest since that date, to $94.32.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November down 23 cents at $11.16 per bushel, January down 23-1/2 at $11.29-3/4.

Retreating as crude oil turns lower and financial sector turmoil sparks long liquidation. Macroeconomic worries keeping fundamental supply/demand concerns on the sidelines.

SOYOIL - October up 0.47 cent at 44.44 cents per lb. Fund buying lifted prices as Malaysian palm ended up overnight.

PALM-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 18 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures surged 7.1 percent on Thursday after nearly breaking a key resistance level, once cash and futures trade picked up on strength in crude oil markets, traders said.

The strong gains snapped three straight days of declines, which were earlier prompted by a flight of funds from risky assets and news of defaults and deferments from top Asian counsumers.

The benchmark December contract settled up as much as 145 ringgit to 2,185 ringgit ($631) after swinging from a low of 2,020 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Sept 18 - Major Southeast Asian markets recovered strongly from sharp falls on Thursday as fears that more U.S. banks may go under subsided and European stocks gained, though most still ended the day in negative territory.

European equities turned higher, halting a global equity selloff, after leading central banks unveiled concerted action to ease acute money market stress.

Banks and plantation stocks led gainers in a technical rebound and as palm
oil prices rose in tandem with crude oil.

Singapore fell by over 4 percent to nearly touch 2,300, before rebounding to close flat when banks turned higher and planters soared.

Indonesia dropped by over 3 percent but regained on banks and resources to close 1 percent higher, while Thailand managed to trim losses to 0.8 percent after falling over 5 percent to a 5-year low in early trade.

Malaysia lost 1.1 percent, while the Philippine index and Vietnam, which closed earlier, gave up 4.3 and 4.1 percent respectively.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures reversed from earlier losses to end sharply higher across the board on short-covering and steady crude oil prices

CPO futures reversed from earlier losses to end sharply higher across the board on short-covering and steady crude oil prices. Commercial buying interest at the underlying cash market also underpinned the market. Recovery in regional equities market helped a little to neutralize the earlier bearish sentiment and provided some support to the palm market. Benchmark Dec08 price slides to 2020 in the early part of the session. Bargain hunting buying and short-covering activities emerged at the lower end saw prices stabilizing between 2050 to 2080 before another wave of covering interest charge in. This sent prices rebound further to settle at intra-day high at 2185, up RM145 from yesterday's closed.

Breaking News-RTRS-China defaults on at least 100,000 tonnes of RBD palm olein after price falls-traders

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 18 - Chinese buyers have defaulted on at least 100,000 tonnes of RBD palm olein after prices of the vegetable oil fell nearly 15 percent this week, Malaysian and Singaporean traders said on Thursday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 17 - U.S. stocks tumbled to a three-year low on Wednesday as the U.S. rescue of insurer AIG failed to calm a crisis of confidence in global markets and banks were scared to lend to each other.

The Dow fell almost 450 points and the Nasdaq fell nearly 5 percent in its worst day since the aftermath of the Sept. 11 attacks in 2001 as rattled investors worried about who could be the next victim of the global credit crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 449.36 points, or 4.06 percent, to 10,609.66, its lowest level since November 2005. It was the blue-chip Dow average's biggest percentage drop since Monday, when it fell 504.48 points, or 4.42 percent, the most since the aftermath of 9/11.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 17 - U.S. crude oil futures rebounded by more than $6 on Wednesday as the dollar dipped against the euro and after traders reassessed inventory data showing large drawdowns in crude and gasoline supplies.

Earlier, crude futures traded off early highs and gasoline fell, despite the bullish weekly government data.

October crude settled up $6.01, or 6.59 percent, at $97.16 a barrel, trading from $91.36 to $97.45.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November up 15 cents at $11.39 per bushel,January up 14 at $11.53-1/4.

Support from rally in crude oil as dollar falls and on a recovery from the sharp price break on Tuesday. Gains limited by worries about the financial sector which raised more concerns about liquidation. Improved U.S. crop weather and weak world vegoil markets add pressure.

SOYOIL - October up 0.37 at 43.97 cents per lb.

Gains in crude oil as dollar falls boosted soyoil. But weak global vegoils markets add pressure; Malaysian palm oil futures fell 3.8 percent and soyoil futures on China's Dalian exchange also declined.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures tumbled 3.8 percent to hit a 17-½ month low on Wednesday as Asian consumers started to defer vegetable oil deliveries, traders said.

In recent few weeks, vegetable oils have been besieged by bumper harvests, slowing global demand, weaker oil markets and now a flight of funds from risky assets as giant financial firms teeter on the verge of bankruptcy.

The benchmark December palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange fell as much as 81 ringgit to stand at 2,039 ringgit ($591), a level unseen since March 29, 2007.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-SINGAPORE, Sept 17 - Most Southeast Asian stock
markets fell on Wednesday, surrendering early gains as the rescue of insurance giant AIG failed to revive investor confidence, with Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore closing at fresh multi-year lows.

Skittish investors fear the last-minute U.S. government rescue of AIG, made to stave off bankruptcy for the firm, only highlights the enormous strains the global financial system is under.

The Singapore benchmark Straits Times index reversed early gains and fell 1.7 percent to close at a fresh two-year low.

Malaysia gave up 0.9 percent, weighed down by lender Maybank, which dropped nearly 7 percent after regulators gave the green light to its $2.7 billion bid to control Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII), a deal viewed by many investors as too expensive.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

FCPO: physiological support at 2000 managed to defend?


Market violated the support at 2062 and sank to fresh year low again. We are watching closely on the physiological support at 2000. The next support will be followed by 1827 (low since Dec, 2006). For upside, resistance remained at 2180-2240 (gap left over on 16th Sept, 2008).

Trader's Comment: CPO futures slump further after it failed to defend 2080 to 2100 level

CPO futures slump further after it failed to defend 2080 to 2100 level. Earlier, prices were trading between the narrow ranges of 2105 to 2145 in choppy manner throughout most of the session. Tracking a recovery in NYMEX crude oil price which is up about USD2.00 to USD3.00 during Asian time zone. However, prices begin to slide and loss more ground after it failed to defend yesterday’s low around 2077-2080 level in late trading hour. Then, it dived to hit 2039 before it settled RM80 lower at 2040 with total daily volume at 18,106 contracts changed hands. Market sentiment remains weak and destination market also quiet.

Breaking News-RTRS-India's soybean outputseen at record 12 million tonnes

NEW DELHI, Sept 17 (Reuters) - India is expected to produce a record 12 million tonnes of soybeans in 2008, helping it export an all-time high 6 million tonnes of soymeal in the crop year from October, a top industry official said.

Breaking News-RTRS-India seeks to defer 25,000 tonnes of palm oil

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Indian palm oil buyers have asked Malaysian and Indonesian suppliers this week to defer 25,000 tonnes of crude palm oil meant for September delivery to October and November, Indian traders said on Wednesday.

FCPO: is searching for support


Market gave up early gains to end in negative territory by midday break. We continue to look for the immediate support at 2062 followed by 1827 (low since Dec, 2006). While, resistance is at 2180-2240 (gap left over on 16th Sept, 2008).

FKLI: fail to rebound


Market failed to rebound and violated the 1000 mark again. We continue eyeing the next support at 970-960 level. While, immediate resistance is at 1036-1038.

KLSE: struggling around 1000 mark


Market tested 1000.41 in afternoon before closing at 1002.99. Market momentum remained under pressure. We continue to look for the physiological support at 1000 followed by 970. For upside, resistance pegged at 1016-1026 (gap left over on 16th Sept, 2008).

Breaking News-RTRS-AIG expects to repay $85billion loan in full, remain "substantial" market participant

Sept 16 (Reuters) - American International Group Inc's board of directors, in a statement on the announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve of an $85 billion secured revolving credit facility
* Says expects proceeds of asset sales to be sufficient to repay loan in full
* says "policyholders of its companies around the world can rest assured that AIG's commitments will continue to be honored"
* Says expects its businesses to continue as "substantial participants" in their respective markets

Breaking News-RTRS-Federal Reserve on Tuesday regarding insurer American International Group Inc :

The Federal Reserve Board on Tuesday, with the full support of the Treasury Department, authorized the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to lend up to $85 billion to the American International Group (AIG) under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The secured loan has terms and conditions designed to protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers.

Breaking News-RTRS-Middle East, China Buyers Default On Palm Oil Buys

KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Buyers in China and the Middle East have defaulted
on the purchases of more than 100,000 metric tons of palm oil after the latest
slump in prices, trade executives said Tuesday.
"Importers in the Middle East have reneged on a contract for September
shipment of around 30,000 tons of palm oil," said a Jakarta-based trading
executive.
He said the shipment was for volumes purchased by a few buyers but for
delivery in a single cargo.
There have also been defaults by buyers in China during the last few days, to
the extent of at least 50,000 tons, he added.
Traders said there are many other such instances, but details weren't
immediately available.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rebounded on Tuesday, clawing back a day after their biggest drop in seven years on growing optimism that U.S. authorities may finance a rescue of insurer American International Group .

But hopes for a rescue that would serve to calm global financial markets roiled by a streak of Wall Street disasters, including the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, faded after the closing bell sending stock index futures lower.

AIG shares fell 48 percent after the bell after Bloomberg reported that the United States was considering conservatorship as an option for the insurer, while the New York Times said AIG had hired a bankruptcy law firm.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 141.51 points, or 1.30 percent, to close at 11,059.02, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 20.90 points, or 1.75 percent, to 1,213.60. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 27.99 points, or 1.28 percent, at 2,207.90.

The Federal Reserve held its key benchmark U.S. interest rate steady on Tuesday, opting for the time being to soothe rattled financial markets with central bank lending facilities rather than rate cuts.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended nearly 5 percent lower on Tuesday, down for the second day in a row, as investors continued to seek safer havens amid continued turmoil in global financial markets that's seen further
undermining fuel demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October crude settled down $4.56, or 4.76 percent, at $91.15 a barrel, the lowest since Feb. 8, after trading from $90.51, also the lowest since that date, to $94.32.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- November down 55 cents at $11.24 a bushel.Pressured by worsening global financial crisis leading to spillover selling in soy complex and other commodities.Weakening crude oil weighs.

SOYOIL - October down 2.48 cents at 43.60 cents per lb.Front two contracts fell the 2.50-cent limit on pressure from falling crude oil and deepening global financial crisis.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR (Dow Jones)--Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives
exchange ended 5.7% lower Tuesday, after falling to their lowest level in more
than 17 months, as investors took leads from the weakness in crude oil.

The new benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended
MYR129 lower, at MYR2,120 a metric ton, off an intraday low of MYR2,077/ton, on
short covering.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Thai stocks fell to a 20-month
low on Tuesday, leading losses in Southeast Asia, as financial upheavals on Wall Street sent shockwaves through global and Asian stock markets.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gave up 1.9 percent as slumping crude oil prices hit palm oil plantation stocks, while the Philippines <.PSI> sank 4.5 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> slipped 4.4 percent.

DJI: rebound and recover after tested the recent low at 10827


Market rebound and recover after tested the recent low at 10827. However, the overall technical landscape remained bearish. We look for the support at 10680-10660 and resistance remained at 11440-11490.