Monday, October 6, 2008
Trader's Comment: CPO futures tumble further to hit 10% limit down and limit extended to 15%
CPO futures tumble further to hit 10% limit down and limit extended to 15%. Speculative selling and hedge selling activities emerged on potential of piling up stocks and e-CBOT soyoil prices was trading at about 220 to 240 points down. While, NYMEX crude oil prices also tumbled to crack below USD 90.00 per barrel and trading around USD 89.50 per barrel in Asian time zone. Asian regional stocks market also in sliding mood which saw Hang Seng Index down by 800 plus points Tokyo N225 seen 465 points lower while Singapore FTS tumble 128 points. All this had painted a kind of gloomy sentiment. In local front players are concern over demand as year end approaching and resulting end stocks to build up. At close, benchmark Dec08 settled RM180 lower at 1820 after trading between 1880 to 1775.
FKLI Daily: fail to hold ground
Market tumbled with double digit losses after prices failed to hold ground. Market is likely to continue downward move and eyeing the support at 961.0 followed by 930-935. Immediate upside resistance is at 1005-1009 (gap left over today.
KLSE Daily: bearish remain intact
KLSE fall to close below 1000 physiological support level had dampened further the already weak technical landscape. We continue to look for the support at 963.29. While upside resistance is at 1020-1025.
Breaking News-RTRS-Indian veg oil traders to default on deals
NEW DELHI, Oct 6 - Indian vegetable oil traders are expected to renege on more import deals due to a sharp drop in Malaysian prices, a plunge which could force the government to reimpose an import tax on crude palm oil, trade officials said.
Breaking News-RTRS-Analysis-Palm oil rebound not in sight; stocks, demand drag
By Niluksi Koswanage and Naveen Thukral
KUALA LUMPUR/SINGAPORE, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Ballooning vegetable oil stocks and fast-declining interest from funds in volatile commodities may hold off a recovery in palm oil prices until next year despite its fall to a level much lower than rival soyoil.
Palm oil's discount to soy oil has more than doubled to $450 a tonne in just six months as palm has lost half its value since hitting a historic high in March, triggering market talk that palm might have gone too low too soon and would bounce back.
But analysts said rising output in Malaysia and Indonesia and bumper crops in China and India would boost supplies and reduce export demand. And with a worsening financial crisis, funds are fleeing assets that have seen wide price swings recently.
KUALA LUMPUR/SINGAPORE, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Ballooning vegetable oil stocks and fast-declining interest from funds in volatile commodities may hold off a recovery in palm oil prices until next year despite its fall to a level much lower than rival soyoil.
Palm oil's discount to soy oil has more than doubled to $450 a tonne in just six months as palm has lost half its value since hitting a historic high in March, triggering market talk that palm might have gone too low too soon and would bounce back.
But analysts said rising output in Malaysia and Indonesia and bumper crops in China and India would boost supplies and reduce export demand. And with a worsening financial crisis, funds are fleeing assets that have seen wide price swings recently.
Trader's Highlight
DJI-NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Investors cut into a global stock market rally on Friday after the U.S. House of Representatives approved a $700 billion financial rescue plan, taking profits in a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" move.
Uncertainty still dominated market psychology after the bill passed and U.S. President George W. Bush swiftly signed it into law. The Dow Jones industrial average had its worst week since July 2002 while the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes recorded their worst weeks since September 2001.
The House passed the bill by a vote of 263-171 and President Bush quickly signed it, ending two weeks of haggling in Congress that roiled and captivated global markets.
In the U.S. stock market, benchmark indexes fell. The Dow industrials <.DJI> lost 157.47 points, or 1.50 percent, at 10,325.38. At its peak, the Dow was up 313 points. For the week the index lost 818 points, or 7.35 percent.
The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> fell 15.05 points, or 1.35 percent, at 1,099.23. For the week, the index dropped 9.38 percent, or 113.78 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 29.33 points, or 1.48 percent, at 1,947.39. For the week the Nasdaq lost 10.81 percent, or 235.95 points, its worst week since Sept. 2001.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower for the third straight day on Friday, with analysts saying that even with the House of Representatives' passage of a $700 billion bailout bill for the U.S. financial sector, long-term prospects for oil demand are still in question.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude settled down 9 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $93.88 a barrel, trading from $91.30 to $96.03.
CBOT-SOYBEANS - November down 12 cents to $9.92 per bushel, January down 12-1/4 at $10.08-1/2.
Fell to a fresh 11-month low in the spot month on a late flurry of commodity fund selling, reversing an early rally.
Harvest pressure also weighed. Funds liquidating long positions amid concerns that a global credit squeeze and economic slowdown could limit demand for commodities.
Open interest in CBOT soybeans dropped by 5,130 contracts during Thursday's sell-off.
Informa Economics pegged U.S. 2008 soybean crop at 3.001 billion bushels, yield at 40.9 bushels per acre; USDA currently at 2.934 billion.
SOYOIL - October down 0.71 cent to 42.00 cents per lb.Turned down as soybeans eased and crude oil retreated. Continued heavy deliveries pressure front-month October.
FCPO-JAKARTA, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures finished down more than 4 percent on Friday amid concerns over rising stocks, although had cut part of their early losses after an uptick in crude prices, traders said.
The benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, finished down 90 ringgit, or 4.31 percent, to 2,000 ringgit ($577) a tonne, having hit a low of 1,934 ringgit a tonne in early trade.
REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian markets
fell to fresh multi-year lows on Friday on uncertainty over the
U.S. rescue bill
Singapore <.FTSTI> fell 2.8 percent to a fresh 33-month close, to lose 4.6 percent this week, while Thai stocks <.SETI> are down 1.3 percent. Vietnam <.VNI> fell 1.8 percent on Friday, bringing the week's losses to 6.4 percent, while the Philippine index <.PSI> dropped 1.8 percent. Malaysia <.KLSE> outperformed the region to
edge 0.3 percent down this week.
Uncertainty still dominated market psychology after the bill passed and U.S. President George W. Bush swiftly signed it into law. The Dow Jones industrial average had its worst week since July 2002 while the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes recorded their worst weeks since September 2001.
The House passed the bill by a vote of 263-171 and President Bush quickly signed it, ending two weeks of haggling in Congress that roiled and captivated global markets.
In the U.S. stock market, benchmark indexes fell. The Dow industrials <.DJI> lost 157.47 points, or 1.50 percent, at 10,325.38. At its peak, the Dow was up 313 points. For the week the index lost 818 points, or 7.35 percent.
The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> fell 15.05 points, or 1.35 percent, at 1,099.23. For the week, the index dropped 9.38 percent, or 113.78 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 29.33 points, or 1.48 percent, at 1,947.39. For the week the Nasdaq lost 10.81 percent, or 235.95 points, its worst week since Sept. 2001.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower for the third straight day on Friday, with analysts saying that even with the House of Representatives' passage of a $700 billion bailout bill for the U.S. financial sector, long-term prospects for oil demand are still in question.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude
CBOT-SOYBEANS - November
Fell to a fresh 11-month low in the spot month on a late flurry of commodity fund selling, reversing an early rally.
Harvest pressure also weighed. Funds liquidating long positions amid concerns that a global credit squeeze and economic slowdown could limit demand for commodities.
Open interest in CBOT soybeans dropped by 5,130 contracts during Thursday's sell-off.
Informa Economics pegged U.S. 2008 soybean crop at 3.001 billion bushels, yield at 40.9 bushels per acre; USDA currently at 2.934 billion.
SOYOIL - October
FCPO-JAKARTA, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures finished down more than 4 percent on Friday amid concerns over rising stocks, although had cut part of their early losses after an uptick in crude prices, traders said.
The benchmark December contract
REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian markets
fell to fresh multi-year lows on Friday on uncertainty over the
U.S. rescue bill
Singapore <.FTSTI> fell 2.8 percent to a fresh 33-month close, to lose 4.6 percent this week, while Thai stocks <.SETI> are down 1.3 percent. Vietnam <.VNI> fell 1.8 percent on Friday, bringing the week's losses to 6.4 percent, while the Philippine index <.PSI> dropped 1.8 percent. Malaysia <.KLSE> outperformed the region to
edge 0.3 percent down this week.
DJI Weekly: remain dark
DJI had its worst week since July 2002. We continue to look for the immediate support at 10175-10156. For upside, resistance remained at 11334-11344.
Friday, October 3, 2008
FCPO Weekly: close with long black candle
FCPO printed a long black candle had weakened further the already weak technical landscape. We now looks for the underline support at 1820-1860. While, upside resistance is at 2300-2315
Trader's Comment: CPO futures tumbled further and hit another fresh year low
Weakening crude oil coupled with substantial losses in rival soyoil prices in CBOT led CPO futures to tumble further and hit another fresh year low but weekend short-covering activities managed to lift the prices to finish off low. Earlier, benchmark price was slammed down to hit 1934 which tracking losses in overnight NYMEX crude oil and soyoil in CBOT. Weakening demand after the festive session also weighed on prices. However, short-covering activities ahead of weekend sent prices rebounding in last hour of trading and settled RM90 lower at 2000. Total daily volumes stood at 14,614 transacted.
FKLI Weekly: defending at 1000 mark
FKLI looks defended well at 1000 physiological support with printed a long lower shadow candle. Thus, we continue to look for the support at 961-968. For upside, resistance remained at 1045-1050.
KLSE Weekly: Bear still dominated
KLSE remained in bearish territory. We look for the underline support at 970-963 while upside resistance is at 1040.
NYMEX Crude: in downtrend mode
NYMEX crude oil in downtrend mode as selling pressure emerged after it rebound. Looks like want to challenge the recent low at 90.50 (underline support) followed by stronger support between 84.00 to 85.00 levels.
CBOT Soyoil: in sliding mood
CBOT soyoil prices continue its sliding mood. It rebounded in two occasion but failed to sustain. Chart wise,remained in negative outlook and looks targeting 38.00 to 39.00 region.
Comex Gold: sideways with little bias upside
COMEX Gold prices slide to the low at 739.00 on 11/9/08 but managed to bounce back handsomely to hit 919 on 29/9/08, it then in correction mood and retrace to 829.30, about 50% of retracement from 739 to 919. Market likely to trade in range bound in near term with little upside bias. Immediate support put at 800-810. Overhead resistance at 910-920.
FCPO Hourly: bottomless
Market created another new low at 1938 by midday break. We currently look for the resistance at 2020-2072 (gap left over this morning). Support is pegged at 1910-1900.
FKLI Hourly: seeking for direction
Market looks may continue in consolidation phase and seeking for a clearer direction. Immediate support and resistance is at 983 and 1025 level respectively.
Trader's Highlight
DJI-NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slid on Thursday as tight credit markets and bleak economic data forced investors to focus on the rocky road still ahead for the U.S. economy even if Congress passes a $700 billion rescue package this week.
The Dow shed more than 3 percent while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 4 percent as Wall Street worried the economy may slide into recession, further cutting into corporate profits.
Data showing the number of people filing for unemployment benefits hit a seven-year high painted a troubling picture, as did a report showing a steep drop in factory orders in August.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 348.22 points, or 3.22 percent, to 10,482.85, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 46.78 points, or 4.03 percent, to 1,114.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 92.68 points, or 4.48 percent, to 1,976.72.
CBOT-SOYBEANS - November down 49 cents to $10.04 per bushel, January down 49-3/4 to $10.20-3/4.
Spot month dipped below $10 for the first time in 11 months, dragged down by a drop in crude oil and gold plus strength in the U.S. dollar.
Argentine farmers to strike on Friday, halting grains and livestock sales for six days to protest government farm policy.
FC Stone cut its U.S. soybean crop forecast to 2.889 billion bushels, yield at 39.4 bushels per acre; below its September estimate of 3.003 billion bushels.
CBOT-SOYOIL - October down 1.49 cents to 42.71 cents per lb.
Following soybeans and crude oil. Continued heavy Census reports August U.S. soyoil stocks at 2.599 billion lbs, compared with 2.784 billion in July.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures dropped more than 4 percent on Thursday as concerns lingered about demand falling in a slowing economy and as the dollar continued to rise against the euro.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude settled down $4.56, or 4.63 percent, at $93.97 a barrel, trading from $93.65 to $100.37.
The Dow shed more than 3 percent while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped 4 percent as Wall Street worried the economy may slide into recession, further cutting into corporate profits.
Data showing the number of people filing for unemployment benefits hit a seven-year high painted a troubling picture, as did a report showing a steep drop in factory orders in August.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 348.22 points, or 3.22 percent, to 10,482.85, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 46.78 points, or 4.03 percent, to 1,114.28. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 92.68 points, or 4.48 percent, to 1,976.72.
CBOT-SOYBEANS - November
Spot month dipped below $10 for the first time in 11 months, dragged down by a drop in crude oil and gold plus strength in the U.S. dollar.
Argentine farmers to strike on Friday, halting grains and livestock sales for six days to protest government farm policy.
FC Stone cut its U.S. soybean crop forecast to 2.889 billion bushels, yield at 39.4 bushels per acre; below its September estimate of 3.003 billion bushels.
CBOT-SOYOIL - October
Following soybeans and crude oil. Continued heavy Census reports August U.S. soyoil stocks at 2.599 billion lbs, compared with 2.784 billion in July.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures dropped more than 4 percent on Thursday as concerns lingered about demand falling in a slowing economy and as the dollar continued to rise against the euro.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude
DJI Daily: failed to recover
DJI failed to recover after the biggest daily's point drop in history. We continue to look for the immediate support and resistance at 10371-10365 and 10918-10928 level respectively.
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