Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as Hewlett-Packard's upbeat results trumped growing fears of a deepening global recession in a day of volatile trade, but much of Wall Street finished lower and oil prices fell.

Wall Street traded much of the day lower but surged in a late rally, spurred by the forecast-beating results and outlook from HP , the world's largest maker of personal computers.

But investor doubts about the fate of billions of dollars in government aid sought by General Motors Corp and the other beleaguered U.S. automakers fueled caution.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 151.17 points, or 1.83 percent, at 8,424.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 8.37 points, or 0.98 percent, at 859.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 1.22 points, or 0.08 percent, at 1,483.27.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended at the lowest level in nearly 22 months on Tuesday, moving in lock-step with Wall Street, where U.S. stocks lost ground on deepening economic worries.

Crude notched gains earlier as equities rose and amid talk from OPEC about another output cut, which helped crude oil bounce from another near 22-month low.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down 56 cents, or 1.02 percent, at $54.39, the lowest settlement since prices ended at $54.01 on Jan. 29, 2007.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 4-1/2 cents at $9.02. Profit-taking from Monday's gains and a firm dollar weighing on soy. Crude oil turning lower added pressure as did a sag in stock markets.

SOYOIL - December down 0.04 cent at 32.28 cents per lb. Pressured by drop in soy and lower crude oil market.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures held modestly firmer on Tuesday but fears that export growth may not keep up with ballooning stockpiles continued to grip the market.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 1 ringgit ringgit at 1,436 ringgit ($396) per tonne.

Other traded months on Bursa Malaysia <0#KPO:> traded between marginal declines and gains. Trading volume stood at 11,206 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell to near three-week lows on Tuesday amid fears of an intensifying global downturn

Southeast Asian stocks elsewhere tracked weaker sentiment in Asian stocks after Citigroup cut 52,000 jobs and downbeat policymaker comments reflected worsening economic conditions.

Thailand's benchmark stock index <.SETI> fell 3.0 percent to its lowest since Nov 13. Malaysia <.KLSE>, Southeast Asia's best performer this year, edged down 0.11 percent, reversing a small gain posted on Monday, as Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak said the country was open to taking additional measures to boost the economy.

The Philippines' stock market dropped 3.42 percent to its lowest since Oct 30, with the country's biggest mall developer, SM Prime Holdings , 5.7 percent lower after announcing a plan to boost capital spending 66 percent next year.

CPO futures ended mix after recovered from its earlier losses.

CPO futures ended mix after recovered from its earlier losses. Benchmark Feb09 open almost unchanged at 1437, as Asian time NYMEX crude oil halted its fall from overnight losses to trade above $55 a barrel on Tuesday. Nevertheless, CPO prices unable to sustain and immediately fell following US eCBOT soy complex and Dalian palm inching lower. Benchmark Feb09 hit the psychological support level at 1400, which is also the intra day low. In the later part of afternoon session, some short-covering activities began to emerge and sent CPO prices to bounce back. It hit the intra day high of 1446 before it settled RM1 higher from yesterday’s settlement price at 1436.

FCPO Daily: maintain sideways posture


Market has been traded in tight range and moving sideways. We maintain the support at 1331 while resistance is at 1563-1571.

DJI Daily: to trade in range


Range trading extended. Resistance and support maintain at 9794-9653 and 7882-7965 level respectively.

FKLI Daily: uncertain


Market direction remains uncertain following prices traded in yo-yo manner. We continue to look for the support at 863 followed by 803.5 Upside resistance remains at 895.5-910 followed by 927.

KLSE Daily: remains sideway


Market remains sideways with support at 868-867 and resistance is at 905-913 (gap left over since 5/11/2008).

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Breaking News-INFORMA ECONOMICS SEES 2009 U.S. CORN PLANTINGS AT 86.8 MILLION ACRES, SOYBEANS AT 77.2 MLN -TRADERS

CHICAGO, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Analytical firm Informa Economics estimated U.S. corn plantings for 2009 at 86.8 million acres and soybeans at 77.2 million, trade sources said on Friday.
The firm's projections compare with 85.9 million corn acres planted in the spring of 2008 and 75.9 million soybean acres, based on USDA's latest estimates.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Malaysia mulls new rule on palm oil millers

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Malaysia may introduce a regulation to force palm oil millers to buy from oil palm smallholders, Commodities Minister Peter Chin said on Monday.
Inventories of the vegetable oil rose to a record 2.09 million tonnes in October, resulting in millers running at near full capacity and making them reluctant to buy palm fruits from smallholders, which account for 40 percent of the country's total annual production.
"The trouble is we have a peak fruiting season, most of the mills are running at full capacity. My sympathies are with the smallholders," Peter Chin told an industry seminar. "I am looking at regulations to compel millers to buy these fruits."
Chin later told reporters he had directed industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to investigate millers who refused to buy palm fruits.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks and oil prices fell on Monday after Japan became the latest major economy to slide into recession and Citigroup said it would cut 15 percent of its work force, the latest signs of a worldwide slowdown.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed down 223.73 points, or 2.63 percent, at 8,273.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 22.54 points, or 2.58 percent, at 850.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 34.80 points, or 2.29 percent, at 1,482.05.

Citigroup , the U.S. bank with the largest worldwide reach, reminded investors of the financial industry's woes with news it would cut 52,000 jobs, on a day the battered auto industry took center stage.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than $2 lower in volatile trading on Monday on bleak economic news in the United States and abroad and amid volatile trading before options on December crude expired at the close.

The hijacking of a Saudi oil tanker and a slumping dollar earlier supported a surge to near $59.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled at $54.95 a barrel, down $2.09, or 3.66 percent, trading from $54.72 to $58.98.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January up 10-1/2 cents at $9.06-1/2.

Concerns about dryness in crop production areas in Argentina and smaller-than-expected private forecast for U.S. 2009 soy acreage supportive. Retreating crude oil, disappointment with a weekend meeting of G20 leaders and falling stock market limiting gains.

Analytical firm Informa Economics estimated 2009 U.S. soy acres at 77.2 million, compared to 75.9 million planted in 2008 but below trade estimates -traders.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December down 0.28 cent at 32.32 cents per lb. Losing ground to meal amid meal/oil spreading.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed down 1.7 percent on Monday as crude oil dropped to near its lowest in almost two years, raising concerns over the viability of biodiesel demand amid a deepening global recession.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 25 ringgit ($6.96) to 1,435 ringgit per tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets drifted lower on Monday as fears of a global economic recession and a gloomy export outlook pushed financials and blue chips lower.

Market sentiment weakened after data showing a recession in Japan and Hong Kong, while fund outflows from the region looked set to continue, analysts said.

In Kuala Lumpur, the main index edged up 0.27 percent. Thai shares bucked the market trend, with the main Thai index <.SETI> up nearly 1 percent as local buying pushed shares in big cap energy stocks up.

Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> dropped 2.17 percent to its lowest since Oct. 31, despite marginally better-than-expected third quarter GDP data.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ended down 0.54 percent, with financial firm DBS Group sliding 2.3 percent and Singapore Exchange 2.35 percent lower.

DJI Daily: Range bound mode to continue


Nothing much changes on the immediate daily technical outlook as market remains its range trading. Resistance and support maintain at 9794-9653 and 7882-7965 level respectively.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures extended yesterday’s losses as crude oil fell further

Palm oil futures extended yesterday’s losses as crude oil fell further. Benchmark jan09 initially open flat at 1460 and merely hit the day high of 1465. It immediately slid down as Asian time NYMEX crude oil traded more than $1 lower at below $56, continuing the fall from overnight losses. Both private cargo surveyor, ITS and SGS had posted a bullish export data which saw the figures increased 11.3% and 18.1% respectively. Benchmark Jan09 hit the intra day low of 1413 in the afternoon session, and then followed a slight rebound to 1442. Nevertheless, it finally settled at 1435 due to lack of follow through buying interest. Other commodity market traded in a mix sentiment, where US eCBOT edged higher while Dalian commodity exchange traded mix.

FCPO Daily: tight range


Market remains capped in lower range trading with its tight movement. We maintain the support at 1331 while resistance is at 1563-1571.

FKLI Daily: stay firm above 863


Market looks firm following 863 immediate support protected well. Looks may continue to holding ground with upside resistance at 895.5-910 followed by 927.

KLSE Daily: good defend


Market defended well and manage to bounce back from negative to end in positive territory. Looks support at 868-867 was pretty strong. Upside resistance is at 905-913 (gap left over since 5/11/2008).

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India's Oct veg oil imports jump on prices, duty

NEW DELHI, Nov 14 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in October rose an annual 24 percent to 827,000 tonnes, the largest monthly purchase in 14 years, as low prices and expectation of higher import duties triggered heavy buying, a leading trade body said.
Imports in the oil year to October were at 6.3 million tonnes, up 12.5 percent from 5.6 million tonnes in the previous year, led by a surge in palm oil imports, data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soy, soyoil market stay strong, corn weak-survey

BEIJING, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China's soy and soyoil markets were expected to remain strong in the week ahead, although the outlook for soyoil weakened as supplies grew, while corn remained bearish on weak demand, according to a survey by an official think-tank.
China's imports of soybeans remained robust even after the slide of domestic soy prices, but the price drop left domestic prices higher than imports, according to the survey by the official China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday after a record drop in retail sales last month heightened fears that American consumers' reluctance to spend will push the economy into an even deeper downturn than currently expected.

Retail sales dropped 2.8 percent in October as consumers cut back amid recession fears, a government report showed. Consumer spending is a key driver for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 337.94 points, or 3.82 percent, to 8,497.31, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 38.00 points, or 4.17 percent, to 873.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 79.85 points, or 5.00 percent, to end at 1,516.85.

The looming Nov. 15 deadline for hedge fund redemption calls -- a key date for investors to pull their money out of hedge funds -- added to the selling, analysts said.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended lower in choppy trading on Friday as demand worries persisted amid dismal retail sales data and a stronger dollar.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down $1.20, or 2.06 percent, at $57.04 a barrel, trading from $55.69 to $59.96. Thursday's intraday low of $54.67 was the lowest since $53.82 was hit on Jan. 30, 2007.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November expired down 9 cents at $8.78 a bushel; January up 2 at $8.96.

Led up by strong rally in wheat, but gains limited by weak crude oil, falling stock markets and disappointing weekly export sales.

NOPA reports October soy crush at 143.4 million bushels, above average estimate for 142 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December down 0.21 cent at 32.60 cents per lb.

Pressed by the weakness in crude oil. NOPA reported October soyoil stocks 1.984 billion lbs, versus September 1.988 billion.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed lower on Friday on faltering crude oil, but speculation in the market of stronger export data limited the downside, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 25 ringgit, or 1.69 percent lower, at 1,455 ringgit ($404) per tonne.

Other traded contracts were mostly lower, falling between 3 ringgit and 22 ringgit. The overall volume stood at 9,812 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian stock markets closed slightly higher on Friday but an early rally in Singapore fizzled out due to selling of blue chips such as DBS Group, and pressure on the rupiah capped gains in Indonesia.

Other markets in the region gave up most of their strong early gains because of worries about the global economic slowdown, reflected in easing oil prices, and caution before a meeting of G20 policy makers, analysts said.

Singapore's main stock index <.FTSTI> ended up 0.21 percent, after earlier surging 3.5 percent.

Indonesia <.JKSE> edged up just 0.37 percent as the rupiah stayed under pressure after the authorities' efforts to regulate foreign exchange outflows stoked rather than removed investors'fears the currency was set for a steeper fall.

Thai stocks <.SETI> slid 0.81 percent to 429.97 after rising almost 2 percent in early trade. Malaysian shares <.KLSE> posted a small 0.12 percent rise at the close.

DJI Weekly: remains cap in range


DJI continue to extend its range trading with downside support pegged at 7882-7929. While, upside resistance maintain at 9708-9794.

Market Outlook 2009


Title: Market Outlook 2009
Date: 13th December 2008
Time: 9.30am - 1.00pm
Venue: 11th Floor, Junior Auditorium, Plaza OSK, Jalan Ampang, 50450, Kuala Lumpur
Fees: Free of Charge(Refreshments will be provided)

To participate, kindly make RSVP with Ryan Chua or Ahmad Lokman at 03-27332238 / 03-21615489 or via e-mail at palmdesk@osk.com.my before 28 November 2008. Early registration is highly recommended due to limited seats.

Friday, November 14, 2008

FCPO Weekly: DOWNTREND remains intact


Market remains bearish mode and nothing much changes on the overall technical landscape. Downside support is pegged at 1331. For upside, we look for the immediate resistance at 1723-1736 followed by 1905-1934 (gap left over since 5/10/2008).