Friday, April 3, 2009
Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended marginally higher after a choppy trading day.
Palm oil futures ended marginally higher after a choppy trading day. The battle between sellers who were taking the opportunity to book their previous day’s profit and buyers who were still willing to jump on board expecting the bullish trend to continue, saw Benchmark Jun09 to hover within a range of 2185-2125 level through out the day before it finally settled RM6 higher at 2165. Generally, the overall market was still fundamentally sound and technically supportive. Fundamentally, with the expectation of flat March09 production reasonable export figures reported by private cargo surveyors, traders were now expecting palm oil March09 inventories to reduce to around 1.4 million tones. Technically, the ability of CPO price to maintain above 2100 level today after yesterday’s rally may further enhanced the strength of the near term bull in CPO market.
Trader's Highlight
DJI - NEW YORK, April 2 - U.S stocks rallied for a third day on Thursday as more data pointed to a stabilizing economy and changes to an accounting rule were seen as shoring up the volatile financial sector in the short term.
World leaders at the G20 summit on London also boosted markets when they announced an additional trillion dollars to support the International Monetary Fund and boost flagging trade.
The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 216.48 points, or 2.79 percent, to 7,978.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 23.30 points, or 2.87 percent, to 834.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index leaped 51.03 points, or 3.29 percent, to 1,602.63.
NYMEX - NEW YORK, April 2 - U.S. crude oil futures settled on Thursday with the biggest one-day percentage gain in three weeks as Wall Street rallied on optimism that steps agreed to by world leaders at the G20 meeting in London would restore global economic growth.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled up $4.25, or 8.78 percent, at $52.64 a barrel, trading from $48.45 to $52.87. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain since crude ended up 11.1 percent on March 12.
CBOT - SOYBEANS - May up 25 cents at $9.77 per bushel.
Big gains for U.S. stock market, strong crude oil and weak dollar combining to boost soybean futures markets.
CBOT - SOYOIL - May up 1.60 cents per lb at 35.10 cents per lb.
Strong rally for crude oil and stock market dominating trade on Thursday in addition to short-covering.
FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, April 2 - Asian vegetable oil markets gained on Thursday, bolstered by mounting expectations that a summit of G20 leaders would issue measures to stimulate growth, spurring food demand amid supply squeeze fears.
Malaysian crude palm oil futures jumped 5.1 percent to a fresh 6-month peak while U.S. soyoil for May delivery jumped 2.4 percent and Dalian Commodity Exchange soyoil futures edged higher.
The benchmark June contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 105 ringgit to 2,175 Malaysian ringgit ($602.5) per tonne, a level unseen since Sept 29, 2008, before settling at 2,159 ringgit, up 4.3 percent.
REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, April 2 - Southeast Asian stocks posted healthy gains on Thursday as investors snapped up blue chips like Singapore's CapitaLand, Malaysia's CIMB and Indonesia's Bank Rakyat as hopes for a U.S. economic recovery grew.
Singapore jumped 6 percent to close near a three-month high as investors piled into property shares following better-than-expected U.S. home sales data, which raised hopes the economic downturn there was moderating.
In Malaysia, the Kuala Lumpur composite index built on gains from Wednesday, adding 2.4 percent to close at its highest since Feb. 17, while the Indonesian benchmark index added 2.6 percent to end at its highest since Oct. 15.
World leaders at the G20 summit on London also boosted markets when they announced an additional trillion dollars to support the International Monetary Fund and boost flagging trade.
The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 216.48 points, or 2.79 percent, to 7,978.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 23.30 points, or 2.87 percent, to 834.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index leaped 51.03 points, or 3.29 percent, to 1,602.63.
NYMEX - NEW YORK, April 2 - U.S. crude oil futures settled on Thursday with the biggest one-day percentage gain in three weeks as Wall Street rallied on optimism that steps agreed to by world leaders at the G20 meeting in London would restore global economic growth.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled up $4.25, or 8.78 percent, at $52.64 a barrel, trading from $48.45 to $52.87. It was the biggest one-day percentage gain since crude ended up 11.1 percent on March 12.
CBOT - SOYBEANS - May up 25 cents at $9.77 per bushel.
Big gains for U.S. stock market, strong crude oil and weak dollar combining to boost soybean futures markets.
CBOT - SOYOIL - May up 1.60 cents per lb at 35.10 cents per lb.
Strong rally for crude oil and stock market dominating trade on Thursday in addition to short-covering.
FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, April 2 - Asian vegetable oil markets gained on Thursday, bolstered by mounting expectations that a summit of G20 leaders would issue measures to stimulate growth, spurring food demand amid supply squeeze fears.
Malaysian crude palm oil futures jumped 5.1 percent to a fresh 6-month peak while U.S. soyoil for May delivery jumped 2.4 percent and Dalian Commodity Exchange soyoil futures edged higher.
The benchmark June contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 105 ringgit to 2,175 Malaysian ringgit ($602.5) per tonne, a level unseen since Sept 29, 2008, before settling at 2,159 ringgit, up 4.3 percent.
REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, April 2 - Southeast Asian stocks posted healthy gains on Thursday as investors snapped up blue chips like Singapore's CapitaLand, Malaysia's CIMB and Indonesia's Bank Rakyat as hopes for a U.S. economic recovery grew.
Singapore jumped 6 percent to close near a three-month high as investors piled into property shares following better-than-expected U.S. home sales data, which raised hopes the economic downturn there was moderating.
In Malaysia, the Kuala Lumpur composite index built on gains from Wednesday, adding 2.4 percent to close at its highest since Feb. 17, while the Indonesian benchmark index added 2.6 percent to end at its highest since Oct. 15.
DJI Daily: Holding ground
Market managed to hold its ground despite 8000 mark tested in intra-day basis but not on closing. We are now looking the upside resistance at 8100-8200. Downside support adjusted to 7500-7400
KLSE Daily: Bull won the battle
Bull has proved won the battle to stay above 900 mark with a long white candle printed. Market looks may continue to move up with upside resistance is stood at 910-925. While, downside support is pegged at 890-884 (gap left over on 2/4/2009).
FKLI Daily: Strong rebound
Market rebounded strongly ended above 900 mark had definitely brighten up the immediate daily technical landscape. Bull looks may continue its upward move with upside resistance at 920-930. to the downside, support is pegged at 888-883 (gap left over on 2/4/2009).
FCPO Daily: Rallied for third days in a row
Resistance at 2100-2150 has been violated completely with a long white candle printed. This had cheered up the immediate daily technical outlook. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 2200-2250. To the downside, support is pegged at 2060-2050.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Trader's Comment: CPO futures continued its yesterday’s rally and ended sharply higher across the board.
CPO futures continued its yesterday’s rally and ended sharply higher across the board. The break out of the ascending triangle yesterday had attracted both aggressive short covering and speculative buying. This sent Benchmark Jun09 to hit the high at 2175 in the afternoon session before it settled RM89 higher at 2159. Daily volume remained heavy with 26,826 contracts changed hands. Global commodity market had been very supportive since the early trading. eCBOT soy oil rose more than 2% while Dalian palm ended higher. Asian time NYMEX crude oil also rebounded sharply from overnight’s losses to above $50 level again. On the other side, the strong regional equity market had also contributed a lot to the bullish sentiment in our local CPO market.
Breaking News-(BN) ECB May Cut Key Rate to 1% as Pressure for New Tools Mounts
ECB May Cut Key Rate to 1% as Pressure for New Tools Mounts
2009-04-01 23:00:00.0 GMT
By Simone Meier and Gabi Thesing
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank may cut its key interest rate to a record low of 1 percent today, increasing pressure on policy makers to use new tools to fight the worst recession in more than 60 years.
ECB officials meeting in Frankfurt will lower the benchmark rate by half a percentage point, according to 49 of 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Such a reduction would probably mark the end of the ECB’s current round of rate reductions, a separate survey shows.
The ECB will announce its decision at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt as leaders from the Group of 20 nations meet in London to discuss ways to rescue the global economy. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is scheduled to brief reporters on the G-20 talks about two hours later.
2009-04-01 23:00:00.0 GMT
By Simone Meier and Gabi Thesing
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank may cut its key interest rate to a record low of 1 percent today, increasing pressure on policy makers to use new tools to fight the worst recession in more than 60 years.
ECB officials meeting in Frankfurt will lower the benchmark rate by half a percentage point, according to 49 of 55 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Such a reduction would probably mark the end of the ECB’s current round of rate reductions, a separate survey shows.
The ECB will announce its decision at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt as leaders from the Group of 20 nations meet in London to discuss ways to rescue the global economy. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown is scheduled to brief reporters on the G-20 talks about two hours later.
Trader's Highlight
DJI-NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday as factory and home sales data raised hopes the economic downturn is moderating, sparking a broad advance.
The data was enough to counter a report that showed U.S. private-sector job losses accelerated in March to 742,000, heightening concerns ahead of the government's monthly payroll numbers on Friday.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 152.68 points, or 2.01 percent, to 7,761.60. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 13.21 points, or 1.66 percent, to 811.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 23.01 points, or 1.51 percent, to 1,551.60.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended down more than a dollar on Wednesday, wiping out Tuesday's gains, after government data showed crude stocks rose more than forecast while gasoline supplies jumped against expectations for a drop.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled down $1.27, or 2.56 percent, at $48.39 a barrel, trading from $47.26 to $48.96.
CBOT-SOYBEANS - May unchanged at $9.52 a bushel; new-crop November unchanged at $8.92.
Turns mixed as grains see a double-digit decline. Soy seeing lingering support from USDA's March 31 planting intentions report that forecast U.S. 2009 soy seedings 3.6 million acres below trade expectations. Estimated corn plantings were more than trade estimated at 85 million acres, compared to average trade estimate for 84.4 million.
CBOT-SOYOIL - May down 0.12 cent at 33.50 cents per lb. Slips as crude, soybeans fall.
FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 1 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures settled up 3.5 percent at its highest close in more than six months on Wednesday as investors rushed to cover positions on fears of an imminent global vegetable oil supply squeeze.
The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 70 ringgit at 2,070 Malaysian ringgit, a level unseen since Sept. 30 last year. Other traded months rose between 31 and 75 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume more than doubled to 26,304 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared with the normal 10,000 lots.
REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 1 (Reuters) - Stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia
rose more than 1 percent while Singapore eked out a slim gain on Wednesday as investors bought bank shares, with hopes for a global economic revival stirring appetite for risk in the region.
Malaysia <.KLSE> -- Southeast Asia's worst-performing market in March -- ended up 1.3 percent, with top bank Maybank surging 5.2 percent. CIMB rose 2.2 percent.
Singapore <.FTSTI> inched up 0.13 percent, losing most of its 1.6 percent rise in morning trade, with United Overseas Bank up 0.8 percent and the biggest lender, DBS Group , unchanged after rising nearly 2 percent earlier.
Citi Investment Research said it was negative on all Singapore banks due to its bearish view on Singapore's economy and it expected the benchmark stock index could head to the 1,500 level, from 1702.26 on Wednesday.
The data was enough to counter a report that showed U.S. private-sector job losses accelerated in March to 742,000, heightening concerns ahead of the government's monthly payroll numbers on Friday.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 152.68 points, or 2.01 percent, to 7,761.60. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 13.21 points, or 1.66 percent, to 811.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 23.01 points, or 1.51 percent, to 1,551.60.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended down more than a dollar on Wednesday, wiping out Tuesday's gains, after government data showed crude stocks rose more than forecast while gasoline supplies jumped against expectations for a drop.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude
CBOT-SOYBEANS - May
Turns mixed as grains see a double-digit decline. Soy seeing lingering support from USDA's March 31 planting intentions report that forecast U.S. 2009 soy seedings 3.6 million acres below trade expectations. Estimated corn plantings were more than trade estimated at 85 million acres, compared to average trade estimate for 84.4 million.
CBOT-SOYOIL - May
FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 1 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures settled up 3.5 percent at its highest close in more than six months on Wednesday as investors rushed to cover positions on fears of an imminent global vegetable oil supply squeeze.
The benchmark June contract
REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 1 (Reuters) - Stocks in Malaysia and Indonesia
rose more than 1 percent while Singapore eked out a slim gain on Wednesday as investors bought bank shares, with hopes for a global economic revival stirring appetite for risk in the region.
Malaysia <.KLSE> -- Southeast Asia's worst-performing market in March -- ended up 1.3 percent, with top bank Maybank
Singapore <.FTSTI> inched up 0.13 percent, losing most of its 1.6 percent rise in morning trade, with United Overseas Bank
Citi Investment Research said it was negative on all Singapore banks due to its bearish view on Singapore's economy and it expected the benchmark stock index could head to the 1,500 level, from 1702.26 on Wednesday.
DJI Daily: remains in consolidation phase
Market remains under pressure with tough resistance maintain at 8000. Downside support remains pegged at 7300-7200 level.
KLSE Daily: sideways to bias upside potential
Immediate technical landscape has improved following a double digit gain. Market looks may move sideways to bias upside potential in near term with upside resistance stood 890-900. To the downside, support is pegged at 875-870.
FKLI Daily: Gaining ground
Market has gaining a little ground with support at 870-865 looks provide some cushion. Thus, market may move in sideways manner in near term. To the upside, resistance is looking at 890-895.
FCPO Daily: 2051-2058 violated!
Market violated 2051-2058 and close at day high at 2070 had strengthened further the upside momentum. Bull looks may continue to fight its battle but be aware that correction may come in anytime due to the recent strong rebound. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 2100-2150. To the downside, support is pegged at 2010-2002 (gap left over on 1/4/2009) followed by 1980-1970.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures surged to new recent high on bullish USDA report.
Palm oil futures surged to new recent high on bullish USDA report. Overnight CBOT soy complex rallied strongly on the concern of supply constraints after USDA estimated US farmer would plant 76.0 million acres of soybeans, which was significantly lower than market expectation of 79.1 million acres. Benchmark Jun09 opened RM30 higher at 2030. It initially slid to intra day low of 2010 but then bounced back again and started to hover between 2041-2021 level through out most of the sessions. However, some aggressive short covering activities began to emerge in late trading and saw benchmark Jun09 rallied to settle at intra day high of 2070. Trading volume increased dramatically with total 26,304 contracts changed hands.
Breaking News-RTRS-Palm oil use to rise and stocks to fall- Oil World
HAMBURG, March 31 (Reuters) - Global palm oil consumption will rise above output this season, cutting stocks and moving demand towards other edible oils, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
Global Oct 2008/Sept 2009 palm oil consumption is likely to rise to 44.77 million tonnes, up from 41.22 million tonnes in 2007/08, it forecast. This would be above estimated 2008/09 production of 44.57 million tonnes, also up from 42.36 million tonnes in 2007/08.
Global Oct 2008/Sept 2009 palm oil consumption is likely to rise to 44.77 million tonnes, up from 41.22 million tonnes in 2007/08, it forecast. This would be above estimated 2008/09 production of 44.57 million tonnes, also up from 42.36 million tonnes in 2007/08.
Trader's Highlight
DJI - NEW YORK, March 31 - U.S. stocks climbed on Tuesday, driving the S&P 500 to its best month since October 2002, as investors snapped up top-performing bank and
technology shares as the first quarter came to an end.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 86.90 points, or 1.16 percent, to 7,608.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 10.34 points, or 1.31 percent, to 797.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 26.79 points, or 1.78 percent, to 1,528.59.
NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 31 - U.S. crude oil futures pared gains in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after the American
Petroleum Institute's inventory report showed a larger-than-expected build in domestic crude stocks.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, at 4:50 p.m. EDT (2050 GMT), May crude was up 48 cents at $48.89 a barrel. It had settled up $1.25, or 2.58 percent, at $49.66, after trading $47.77 to $50.00
CBOT - SOYBEANS - May up 47-1/2 at $9.52; new-crop November up 50 at $8.92.
Rallies on USDA's smaller-than-expected U.S. soy plantings forecast of 76.024 million acres, versus average trade estimate for 79.622 million. If realized, forecast would be a record, surpassing the 75.718 million seeded in 2008.
CBOT - SOYOIL - May up 1.58 cents at 33.62 cents per lb. Led higher by soy and weak dollar.
FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 31 - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed 1.5 percent on Tuesday as exports were seen recovering, although expectations of higher U.S soy plantings in a report due later in the day could weigh on global vegetable
oil prices.
Prices of palm oil have risen 18 percent in the first quarter of 2009 on higher crude oil prices and lower output, but have failed to remain above the 2,000 ringgit level on lacklustre exports.
The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 30 ringgit at 2,000 ringgit ($548.8) per tonne after going as high as 2,002 ringgit.
REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 31 - Stocks in Singapore and Indonesia rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday, leading major Southeast Asian markets higher, with DBS and Bank Mandiri among big-caps recovering from the latest dismal U.S. auto sector news.
On Monday President Barack Obama ordered General Motors and Chrysler LLC to accelerate their survival efforts and brace for possible bankruptcy, saying neither had done enough to justify the taxpayer money they were seeking.
But Singapore's benchmark index ended up 1.6 percent on Tuesday, recouping some of its 4.2 percent loss on Monday. DBS Group Holdings, Southeast Asia's biggest bank, which fell 4 percent on Monday, climbed nearly 3 percent.
In Kuala Lumpur, the index rose 0.4 percent, with banks outperforming the broader market. Top lender Maybank surged 5.4 percent and Public Bank gained 1.3
percent. State-run oil firm Petronas jumped 5 percent.
technology shares as the first quarter came to an end.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 86.90 points, or 1.16 percent, to 7,608.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 10.34 points, or 1.31 percent, to 797.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 26.79 points, or 1.78 percent, to 1,528.59.
NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 31 - U.S. crude oil futures pared gains in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after the American
Petroleum Institute's inventory report showed a larger-than-expected build in domestic crude stocks.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, at 4:50 p.m. EDT (2050 GMT), May crude was up 48 cents at $48.89 a barrel. It had settled up $1.25, or 2.58 percent, at $49.66, after trading $47.77 to $50.00
CBOT - SOYBEANS - May up 47-1/2 at $9.52; new-crop November up 50 at $8.92.
Rallies on USDA's smaller-than-expected U.S. soy plantings forecast of 76.024 million acres, versus average trade estimate for 79.622 million. If realized, forecast would be a record, surpassing the 75.718 million seeded in 2008.
CBOT - SOYOIL - May up 1.58 cents at 33.62 cents per lb. Led higher by soy and weak dollar.
FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 31 - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed 1.5 percent on Tuesday as exports were seen recovering, although expectations of higher U.S soy plantings in a report due later in the day could weigh on global vegetable
oil prices.
Prices of palm oil have risen 18 percent in the first quarter of 2009 on higher crude oil prices and lower output, but have failed to remain above the 2,000 ringgit level on lacklustre exports.
The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 30 ringgit at 2,000 ringgit ($548.8) per tonne after going as high as 2,002 ringgit.
REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 31 - Stocks in Singapore and Indonesia rose more than 1 percent on Tuesday, leading major Southeast Asian markets higher, with DBS and Bank Mandiri among big-caps recovering from the latest dismal U.S. auto sector news.
On Monday President Barack Obama ordered General Motors and Chrysler LLC to accelerate their survival efforts and brace for possible bankruptcy, saying neither had done enough to justify the taxpayer money they were seeking.
But Singapore's benchmark index ended up 1.6 percent on Tuesday, recouping some of its 4.2 percent loss on Monday. DBS Group Holdings, Southeast Asia's biggest bank, which fell 4 percent on Monday, climbed nearly 3 percent.
In Kuala Lumpur, the index rose 0.4 percent, with banks outperforming the broader market. Top lender Maybank surged 5.4 percent and Public Bank gained 1.3
percent. State-run oil firm Petronas jumped 5 percent.
DJI Daily: in Consolidation phase
Consolidation phase may extended with resistance and support is stood at 8000 and 7300-7200 level respectively.
KLSE Daily: Sideways
Not much improvement with a mild gain. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 890. To the downside, support is pegged at 860-850.
FKLI Daily: Limited upside
Market looks a little tiredness and under pressure to maintain its current posture. Thus, upside gain may limited with tough resistance at 890-895. While, downside support remained at 860-850.
FCPO Daily: 2000 mark defended
Market looks pretty well support as closing off the intra-day high at 2000 mark. Bull looks do not want to give up and may want to challenge again the recent high at 2051-2058. We are expecting a rally in near term market if 2051-2058 manage to break through convincingly. To the downside, support is remained at 1955-1950.
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