Thursday, April 16, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday amid numerous signs the recession could be abating and data from American Express signaled the ability of some consumers to pay their bills is stabilizing.

The rally was spurred by positive comments from some major banks and hopes that the economy was showing signs of stabilization, but those hopes were dented by Tuesday's
unexpected drop in retail sales.

After a choppy session, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 109.44 points, or 1.38 percent, to 8,029.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 10.56 points, or 1.25 percent, to 852.06. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added
1.08 points, or 0.07 percent, to 1,626.80.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Wednesday, pressured by data showing domestic crude stocks rose last week to their highest in nearly 19 years.
Losses were sharply pared, however, as Wall Street rose on better-than-expected U.S. manufacturing data, and that helped crude recover from the day's lows.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled down 16 cents, or 0.32 percent, at $49.25 a barrel, trading from $48.91 to $50.79.

CBOT-CHICAGO, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. soybeans climbed for a fifth straight session on Wednesday and hit a fresh three-month high as China, the world's largest soy importer, keeps buying soy.

There was talk the Brazilian soybean export market was on fire and export sources said Brazil sold six soybean cargoes with four destined for China and two headed for Taiwan.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures fell 1.1 percent on Wednesday, easing from an 8-month high notched earlier in the session as some investors booked profits on a rally fuelled by speculation of a drawdown in stocks.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 55 ringgit to 2,540 ringgit ($703.4) per tonne, a level unseen since Sept. 3. The contract settled down 26 ringgit at 2,459 ringgit.

Other traded months fell between 22 and 41 ringgit except the front-month which rose 20 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume doubled to 21,681 lots of 25 tonnes each from the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Elsewhere in the region, Singapore's Straits Times Index
<.FTSTI> finished 0.47 percent higher, driven by property shares.

The Kuala Lumpur Composite <.KLSE> inched 0.31 percent higher. The region's smaller markets fell. Philippines <.PSI> lost
0.72 percent while Vietnam shares <.VNI> dropped 2.24 percent.

DJI Daily: Conlidation phase likely to extend


Nothing much changes on the immediate technical landscape as market remains holding around 8000 mark. Thus,consolidation phase is likely to extend in near term. Resistance and support maintain at 8100-8200 and 7700 level respectively.

KLSE Daily: Upward momentum remains intact


Upward momentum remains intact. As for now, we continue to look for the resistance at 961-965. Meanwhile, downside support is maintain at 936 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Inching up


Another fresh high for the year at 967.5. Thus, we are now looking for the immediate resistance at 970 followed by 980-990. To the downside, support is pegged at 942.5-940 followed by 931-928 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: TOP at 2540?


Market gave up all its early gain after hitting the day high at 2540 to end lower. A long upper shadow candle printed after the recent strong rallied may indicate that market is entering to a correction mode in near term. Thus, we are now looking for the upside resistance at 2540 followed by 2600. To the downside, support is pegged at 2400-2385 followed by 2315-2300.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Trader's Comment: The “bull” finally got defeated as CPO prices posted its first loss after previous 4 days winning streak.

The “bull” finally got defeated as CPO prices posted its first loss after previous 4 days winning streak. Benchmark Jun09 surrendered its earlier gains amid profit taking activities. It initially bounced back from intra day low of 2440 and immediately broke above 2500 level on the back of 1-15 April export data released by private cargo surveyor ITS who reported an increase of 3.7%. However, prices began to ease off from its intra day high of 2540 in the second session after second private cargo surveyor SGS showed a lower than expected export figure when it stated a decrease of 1.56%. Benchmark Jun09 slid to 2442 before it finally ended RM26 lower at 2459. The pressure from profit taking activities had undermined the CPO market despite supportive external market. eCBOT soy oil had been inching higher today and Dalian palm traded close to limit up price.

Breaking News-RTRS-India's March veg oil imports up 27.5 pct y/y-trade

NEW DELHI, April 15 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in March rose 27.5 percent from a year earlier to 641,141 tonnes, a leading trade body said on Wednesday.
Imports in the oil year from November were at 3.6 million tonnes, up from from 2.3 million tonnes in the year-ago period, data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed.

Breaking News-RTRS-NOPA March soybean crush pegged at 137.7 mln bu

CHICAGO, April 13 (Reuters) - National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush data to be issued Tuesday morning should show a March U.S. soybean crush near 137.7 million bushels, analysts said on Monday.
Trade estimates ranged from 137.0 million to 138.5 million bushels and compare with NOPA's February soy crush figure of 128.7 million.
Analysts expected NOPA to raise its soyoil stocks figure by 40 to 100 million lbs from its February stocks figure of 2.501 billion lbs.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World cuts Argentina's 2009 soy crop forecast

HAMBURG, April 14 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2009 soybean crop is likely to fall to about 40 million tonnes from 46.7 million tonnes in 2008 but the outlook in Brazil is improving, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
On April 7 Oil World had estimated Argentina's crop this year at 40-41 million tonnes.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as a surprising drop in retail sales dented hopes the recession was abating and financial shares slid on fears that Goldman Sachs' share offering could prompt others to follow suit.

"There is fear that other banks wanting to pay back government funds may want to raise cash by issuing shares," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Ohio-based Schaeffer's Investment Research.

The gloomy news on retail shows that "maybe the economy hasn't turned around as the last 5-week bounce suggested."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 137.63 points, or 1.71 percent, to 7,920.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 17.23 points, or 2.01 percent, to 841.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 27.59 points, or 1.67 percent, to 1,625.72.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell further in post-settlement trade on Tuesday, but stuck to the day's range, after industry data showed that crude inventories rose much higher than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:50 p.m. EDT (2050 GMT), May crude was down 89 cents, or 1.78 percent, at $49.16 a barrel. It had settled 64 cents, or 1.28 percent, lower at $48.41, trading from $48.85 to $51.12.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 14-1/2 cents at $10.36 a bushel.

Rallies to three-month top. Market technically strong and supported by good Chinese demand for U.S. soy, which is seen drawing down American stocks to a five-year low.

Oil World cuts Argentina's 2009 soy crop forecast.

National Oilseed Processors Association reported U.S. March soy crush at 137.257 million bushels, slightly below average estimate for 137.7 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May up 0.89 cent at 36.95 cents per lb.

Supported by the strength in Asian vegoil markets. Strong soybean market also supportive.

NOPA said U.S. March soyoil stocks 2.593 billion lbs., above February 2.501 billion. Analysts expected stocks to increase by 40-100 million lbs.

FCPO-JAKARTA, April 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures jumped 6.4 precent to a new high in nearly eight months on Tuesday amid market talk that key data, due to be released tomorrow, will show strong exports in the first 15 days of April, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 150 ringgit to 2,485 ringgit ($693.17) per tonne, the highest closing level since September 4.

Other traded months rose between 65 and 179 ringgit, except for the March 2010 contract, which fell 20 ringgit. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was heavy at 23,790 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than double the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index <.KLSE> gained 1.3
percent, and Singapore's benchmark Index <.FTSTI> rose 1.1 percent, helped by a 7 percent gain in property firm Capitaland .

Philippine shares <.PSI> edged down 0.3 percent, but Vietnam stocks <.VNI> gained 2.1 percent. Thai markets <.SETI> were closed for a holiday.

DJI Daily: Enter to consolidation phase


Market again failed to defend at 8000 mark. Thus, market may due for consolidation in near term. To the upside, immediate resistance remains at 8100-8200. Downside support is pegged at 7700.

KLSE Daily: Continue to gain ground


Sharp rise with a double digit gain had strengthened further the immediate technical landscape. As for now, we continue to look for the resistance at 960. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 936 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Another fresh year high


Market surpass the resistance 960 and close at fresh year high. Overall technical landscape remains in bullish tone. We are now looking for the immediate upside resistance at 965-970. To the downside, support is maintain at 931-928 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: Where is the TOP?


Bull was getting stronger after breaking through the resistance at 2400-2450 convincingly. Market looks is heading to challenge the upside resistance at 2500-2550. Bear in mind that a healthy correction may taking place anytime after the recent sharp rise in order to strengthen the upward momentum. Downside support is adjusted to 2300-2290.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Trader's Comment: The “bull” fiercely claimed back its territory to almost hit 2500 mark

The “bull” fiercely claimed back its territory after the earlier losses as it aggressively pushes CPO prices to above 2400 level and almost hit 2500 mark. Benchmark Jun09 bounced back from intra day low of 2315 during early trade and thereafter began to rally for the rest of the day without looking back. It hit intra day high at 2495 before it finally settled RM150 higher at 2485. Market talk that export data for the first 15 days of April which will be released tomorrow may increase to 620,000 tonnes from 1-15 March at 592,000 tonnes, also enhanced traders’ belief that palm oil stock would drawn down further. The rebound of external market also helped lifted the bullish sentiment in local CPO market. eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm recovered from their earlier losses to edge higher in late Asian time trading. Commercial buying interest at the underlying cash market had also spill over into BMD.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose on Monday as bets that major banks will post reassuring quarterly results fueled a run-up in financials, offsetting uneasiness about the fate of General Motors .

After the bell, Goldman Sachs , surprised investors by posting stronger-than-expected quarterly results a day early, and announced a $5 billion public offering of common equity.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 25.57 points, or 0.32 percent, to 8,057.81. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 2.17 points, or 0.25 percent, to 858.73. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose just 0.77 of a point, or
0.05 percent, to 1,653.31.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended sharply lower on Monday, giving up a big chunk of Thursday's nearly 6 percent rise in reaction to the International Energy Agency's lower 2009 global demand forecast and as Wall Street
slumped.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude settled down $2.19, or 4.19 percent, at $50.05 a barrel, trading from $48.84 to $52.15.

NOPA crush report to be released early on Tuesday.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 14-1/2 cents at $10.21-1/2 per bushel.

Follow-through support from Thursday's bullish USDA supply/demand report showing a shrinking supply of U.S. soy this year as U.S. soy exports remain brisk.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May up 0.64 cent per lb. at 36.06 cents per lb.
Up with soy and gains overnight in Malaysian palm oil futures amid falling stocks and increasing exports.

FCPO-JAKARTA, April 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures rose 1.6 percent on Monday on signs of tighter stocks, but were off intraday peaks after touching a fresh 7-month high as investors locked in profits from a recent rally, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange hit an intraday high of 2,385 ringgit, the strongest since Sept. 23 last year. The contract settled up 36 ringgit to 2,335 ringgit ($654.49) per tonne.

Other traded months rose between 43 and 85 ringgit, except for the May contract, which fell 10 ringgit. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was at 14,825 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters)-The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index <.KLSE> ended flat while Philippine shares <.PSI> fell 1.43 percent. The Thailand Stock Exchange is closed for a three-day holiday due to a festival and
will resume trading on Thursday.

Elsewhere in the region, Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ended 2.64 percent higher and Vietnam's index finished 4.6 percent stronger.

Jakarta stocks rallied to a six-month high on Monday, buoyed by peaceful parliamentary elections that resulted in strong gains for the political party
led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

DJI Daily: Struggling around 8000 mark


Market still struggling at around 8000 mark. We continue to look for the immediate upside resistance at 8100-8200. Downside support is pegged at 7700

KLSE Daily: Upward momentum remains firm


Market almost covered the upside gap left over since 15/10/2008 at 936-946. As for now, we are looking for the resistance at 960. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Fresh year high


Overall technical landscape remains firm and positive following a fresh high for the year. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 960. To the downside, support is pegged at 931-928 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: Bullish remains intact


Bullish mode remains intact following resistance at 2300-2350 was tested. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at 2400-2450. To the downside, support is pegged at 2200-2150.