Thursday, April 23, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - The Dow and S&P fell on Wednesday after Morgan Stanley revived concerns about the banking sector and the wider economy after it posted its second straight quarterly loss and slashed its dividend.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 82.99 points, or 1.04 percent, to 7,886.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 6.53 points, or 0.77 percent, to 843.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 2.27 points, or 0.14 percent, to 1,646.12.

NYMEX-
NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, taking a cue from Wall Street, which gained on positive corporate outlooks and as energy traders shrugged off government data showing a larger-than-expected build in domestic crude stocks last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, front-month June crude settled up 30 cents, or 0.62 percent, at $48.85 a barrel, trading from trading from $47.70 to $49.09.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 8 cents at $10.46 a bushel.

Old-crop contracts boosted by strong Chinese buying of U.S. soy and disappointing Argentine soy harvest. New-crop contracts, with November down 7 cents at $9.24, on prospects for U.S. soybean acres to increase at the expense of corn.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered estimate of Argentina's 2009 soy crop to 36.2 million tonnes, down from previous estimate for 37 million.

U.S. Census Bureau to issue monthly crush data on Thursday.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- May down 0.04 cent at 36.09 cents per lb. Down in choppy trade but underpinned by strength in old-crop soybeans.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, April 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 1.6 percent on Wednesday to the highest close in a week, rebounding from falls a day earlier as worries about tight global vegetable oil supplies re-surfaced, traders said.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 40 ringgit to 2,475 ringgit ($679.39), the highest closing level since April 14.

Other traded months rose between 21 and 237 ringgit.<0#KPO:> Overall volume was more than double the usual level at 21,098 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 22 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday, as investors sold banking shares led by Singapore's DBS Group and Thailand's Bangkok Bank on fears of more pain in the U.S. banking sector.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> led the decline with a 2.3 percent fall, while Thailand <.SETI> dipped 1.2 percent and Indonesian shares <.JKSE> ended 0.8 percent lower. The Malaysian index <.KLSE> gained 0.2 percent while Vietnam
<.VNI> added 2.9 percent.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures hovering at higher level today on the back of some supportive external factors.

CPO futures hovering at higher level today on the back of some supportive external factors. The strong close of overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy oil saw Benchmark July09 opened RM18 higher at 2453 and thereafter hovering between 2463-2439 level on the remaining morning session. Prices turned slightly weaker during second session opening as it suddenly slid to intra day low of 2423. However, it was quick to bounce back again and continue trading in the earlier range. Some late covering sent Benchmark to intra day high pf 2481 before it finally settled RM40 higher at 2475. The positive external market had provided steady support to CPO market. eCBOT soy oil extended overnight’s gains to inched higher today while Dalian palm also rose steadily. On the other side, Oilworld had also forecasted Argentina’s 2009 soybean harvest to reduce by 3 million tones due to dry weather. Meanwhile, there was news that Russia may halve their palm oil import to 420k tones this year as they had doubled their import tariff from June.

FCPO Daily: in consolidation mode


Market likely to extend its consolidation mode to move in sideways manner. Thus, we maintain the upside resistance at 2540. To the downside, support is remains at 2315-2300 followed by 2280-2250.

FKLI Daily: show little tiredness mode


Profit taking activities were evident after hitting a fresh new high at 980. Market looks little tiring with the recent sharp rise. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 980-985. While, downside support is pegged at 955-950.

KLSE Daily: maintain upward posture


Market maintained its upward posture as resistance at 969-970 was tested. As for now, we are looking for upside resistance 980-985. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 968-966 followed by 957-953.

DJI Daily: losing ground


Market continue to lose ground after fail to sustain at 8000 mark. We continue to look for the resistance at 8100-8200. While, downside support is pegged at 7700 followed by 7500-7400 level.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Oilseeds, oils vulnerable to price fall-Oil World

HAMBURG, April 21 - Global oilseed, edible oil and oil meal prices are susceptible to price falls following their recent strength, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
In the near term, the sector will face selling by investment funds and speculators, it said.

India soyoil futures edge up; Malaysian palm weighs

MUMBAI, April 21 - Indian soyoil futures erased early losses and edged up on Tuesday afternoon on expectations of a supply squeeze after an expected fall in soybean output in Argentina, a leading producer and exporter, analysts said. However, weak Malaysian palm oil weighed on the markets.

RTRS-GRAINS-US soybeans up on China buying. Argentine woes

CHICAGO, April 21 - U.S. soybean futures rose on Tuesday as China kept buying the oilseed and reports persisted of low yields in Argentina's harvest.
"There is momentum from continued Chinese buying and they keep lowering the Argentine crop," said Mario Balletto, analyst for Citigroup.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, April 21 - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner indicated most banks have sufficient reserves to protect against possible losses, sparking a rebound in bank shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 127.83 points, or 1.63 percent, to 7,969.56. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 17.69 points, or 2.13 percent, to 850.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 35.64 points, or 2.22 percent, at 1,643.85.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, April 21 - U.S. crude oil futures settled higher on Tuesday, lifted by a bounce on Wall Street and amid volatility associated with the expiration of the May crude contract at the close.

Crude rose after falling more than $2 earlier as uncertainty about a quick economic recovery and bank stability that pressured global equities pushed oil lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude expired and settled up 63 cents, or 1.37 percent, at $46.51 a barrel, trading from $43.83 to $47.20.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - May up 19-1/2 cents at $10.38 per bushel.
Continued active buying of soy by China and low soy yields in the South American harvest supporting soy futures in addition to support from a short-covering bounce after the sharp decline of futures on Monday.

CBOT - SOYOIL
- May up 0.68 cent at 36.13 cents per lb.
Following soybeans and short-covering after the sharp decline of prices on Monday.

FCPO - JAKARTA, April 21 - Malaysian palm futures closed slightly lower on Tuesday, recouping most of the early losses thanks to late buying on concerns about tight supplies, traders said.

The market came under pressure in early trade as the crude oil price, which normally has an influence on palm oil prices, had fallen 9 percent the previous day.
Traders said the palm oil market was holding up well by late afternoon on short-covering.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 11 ringgit, or 0.5 percent, to 2,435 ringgit ($668.59), after dropping as low as 2,377 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
- BANGKOK, April 21 - Southeast Asian stock markets were generally weak on Tuesday, hurt by renewed worries about the health of the U.S. financial system, but Singapore and Thailand recovered a little to end in positive territory.

A big increase in troubled loans at the largest U.S. bank, Bank of America, raised concern about the pace of any economic recovery, snapping a recent rally in equities worldwide.

Indonesia's main index, which rose 11.5 percent last week, fell nearly 2 percent, while Malaysia snapped a five-day winning streak, ending down 0.18 percent.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures managed to minimized its losses as it recouped most of the losses on late covering.

CPO futures managed to minimized its losses as it recouped most of the losses on late covering. The overnight tumble in NYMEX crude oil prices and the sharp losses in CBOT soy oil saw Benchmark July09 gap down RM56 to open at 2390. Market sentiment remained uncertain as prices then began to hover between 2420-2385 level through out most of the sessions. Although Dalian palm had been trading at limit down prices the whole trading day and eCBOT soy oil inched lower, the concerns on supply tightness had limit the effect of weak external factors. Traders were confident that stock levels were still at relatively low level. The emerged of intra day short covering activities in late trading sent Benchmark July09 to bounced back again and hit intra day high at 2442 before it finally settled RM11 lower at 2435.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures surrendered some of its gains to end marginally higher after a volatile trading day.

CPO futures surrendered some of its gains to end marginally higher after a volatile trading day. Benchmark July09 was initially well supported as it bounced back from the low of 2393 and surged to intra day high at 2501 following the released of 1-20 April export data by private cargo surveyor ITS who reported and increased of 4.2%. However, market became more choppy after the second private cargo surveyor SGS reported an increase of merely 0.8% of the same period export data. It climbed to 2495 after opened lower in second session, but retreated to 2439 again and finally settled RM11 higher at 2446. Market sentiment had been uncertain especially after both private cargo surveyors released the export data that is within market expectations. External factors were also weak as Dalian palm edged slightly higher after giving up its earlier gains while eCBOT soy oil edged lower today.

Breaking News-RTRS-China looks at Indonesia to boost palm oil stocks

KUALA LUMPUR, April 20 (Reuters) - China, the world's top vegetable oil consumer, is looking to boost its palm oil inventories as stocks have slipped below the usual 400,000 tonne level, traders said on Monday.
China, however, would be buying more palm oil products from Indonesia, the world's top producer as regular supplier Malaysia is facing a supply squeeze.

Breaking News-RTRS-Asian buyers rush for palm oil cargoes as stocks drop

KUALA LUMPUR, April 20 (Reuters) - Buyers are on the hunt for palm oil cargoes, traders and industry officials said on Monday, as fears of a supply squeeze in Malaysia mounts.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India PEC scraps 12,000 T palm oil import tender

NEW DELHI, April 20 (Reuters) - Indian state-run trading firm PEC Ltd on Monday scrapped a tender to import 12,000 tonnes of crude palm oil due to a poor response, government sources said.
"Only one bid was received," a government official, who did not wish to be identified, told Reuters, adding that PEC normally awards a contracts if at least three bidders are in the fray.
A Malaysian firm offered to supply crude palm oil at $680 per tonne at the eastern port of Kakinada, another official said.
Indian traders said the cancellation of the tender may have weakened the market sentiment.
"This could be one of the main reasons for prices closing at a lower level from the day's high," said B.V. Mehta, executive director at the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), a leading trade body.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slid more than 3 percent on Monday after weak results from Bank of America reignited concerns over the state of the banking industry and the economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 289.60 points, or 3.56 percent, to 7,841.73. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> tumbled 37.21 points, or 4.28 percent, to 832.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 64.86 points, or 3.88 percent, to 1,608.21.

Fueling more bank concerns were comments from J.P. Morgan Securities, which said it estimates U.S. banks to incur $400 billion more in losses from the credit crisis and expects there will be a need for more capital for certain institutions.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended nearly 9 percent lower on Monday, pressured by economic concerns that caused a sharp drop on Wall Street and as the U.S. dollar rallied on safe-haven bids.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude , which is expiring on Tuesday, settled down $4,45, or 8.84 percent, at $45.88 a barrel, trading from $45.50, the lowest since $43.62 was hit on March 16, to $50.31.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May down 32-1/2 cents per bushel at $10.18-1/2 per bushel.

Falling stock market, firm dollar and lower crude oil weighs on soy with market underpinned by big China soy buying and declining soy yields in South American harvest.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May down 1.32 cents per lb at 35.45 cents per lb.

Following soybeans as lower crude oil and falling stock market combined with firm dollar pressuring soyoil.

FCPO
-JAKARTA, April 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed slightly firmer on Monday, giving up most of the day's gains, as the market consolidated after last week's supply tightness-inspired rally, traders said.

The benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 11 ringgit, or 0.45 percent, to 2,446 ringgit ($673.83), after going as high as 2,501 ringgit and as low as 2,393 ringgit.

Other traded months rose between 5 and 41 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was heavy at 18,303 lots of 25 tonnes each, nearly doubled the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, April 20 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks ended
mixed on Monday, with Singaporean banks retreating after adverse rating news while commodity-linked shares pushed the Thai market to three-month highs even though investors fled domestic sectors.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.3 percent, Indonesia <.JKSE> rose for a sixth day, up 1.7 percent, the Philippines <.PSI> lost 0.4 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> dropped 4.6 percent.

DJI Daily: Peakish


Market formed a round top following prices losing ground at 8000 mark. Thus, market likely to enter to a correction mode in near term. To the upside, resistance is at 8100-8200. Downside support remains at 7700 followed by 7500-7400 level.

KLSE Daily: Defended well


Immediate daily technical landscape remains positive as prices continue to defend well. As for now, we are looking for the immediate resistance at 969-970. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 953-942 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: toppish


Daily technical landscape looks little toppish. Thus, market may due for correction in near term market. We are now looking for the upside resistance at 974. while, downside support is pegged at 946.5 followed by 931-928.5 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: shows tiredness


Market shows a little tiredness mode after few days of defend at above 2400 mark. Thus, correction mode is likely to extend in near term. We remain the upside resistance at 2540. To the downside, support is pegged at 2315-2300 followed by 2280-2250.