Thursday, October 22, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday, hurt by a late sell-off in financial shares after an influential bank analyst recommended selling Wells Fargo shares and a wider-than-expected loss from Boeing disappointed investors.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 92.12 points, or 0.92 percent, to end at 9,949.36. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 9.66 points, or 0.89 percent, to 1,081.40. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shed 12.74 points, or 0.59 percent, to 2,150.73.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended on Wednesday above $81 a barrel, the highest in a year, lifted by government data showing an unexpectedly large drawdown in gasoline stockpiles last week.

Crude inventories rose less than expected while distillate supplies fell, though less than forecast, weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed, and both proved price supportive, traders said.

The dollar touched a one-month low against sterling while the euro broke above $1.50 for the first time in 14 months as expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain very low weighed on the greenback.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, new front month December crude settled up $2.25, or 2.84 percent, at $81.37 a barrel, the highest close since Oct. 9, 2008's $86.59. It traded from $77.64 to $82, the highest since the $84.83 intraday high on Oct. 14, 2008.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November up 265 cents at $10.087-1/2 a bushel. Rallies past $10 to highest since Sept. 3 as dollar collapses and crude oil rallies. Stronger U.S. cash markets also supportive as exporters scramble to meet sales commitments amid a slow harvest.

U.S. Census Bureau to issue monthly crush data on Thursday. Analysts expect Census to report a September crush near 113.6 million bushels.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December up 1.09 cents at 38.56 cents a lb. Falling dollar, rise in soybeans and crude oil spurs speculative buying.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures dropped 0.6 percent on Wednesday, extending a retreat from a five-week peak hit on Monday, pressured by a slide in crude oil price, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange settled down 12 ringgit at 2,168 ringgit ($642.37) a tonne. Overall volume was 18,028 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks took a hit
on Wednesday after declines on Wall Street, led by losses in blue-chips such as Singapore banking heavyweight DBS Group and Indonesia's Bumi Resources .

Singapore's benchmark stock index <.FTSTI> dropped 0.7 percent, Thailand <.SETI> eased 1.3 percent and Indonesia <.JKSE> dropped about one percent, extending Tuesday's falls, to a one-week closing low.

Malaysia <.KLSE> reversed course from a 16-month high hit in early trade to close down 0.45 percent, snapping a three-day rising steak, while the Philippines <.PSI> pulled back from a near two-week high earlier in the day, falling 0.86 percent.

Among losers in Malaysia, top lender Maybank Bhd dropped 1.15 percent, while gaming group Genting Bhd fell 0.52 percent.

Malaysia's number two lender, CIMB Bank , closed unchanged after rising as much as 1.74 percent, cheered by a positive profit outlook at its Thai unit. [ID:nBKK429856] But top lender Maybank Bhd lost 1.15 percent.

CBOT Soyoil Daily: Still more upside room to come


A wonderful breakout from the overhead resistance at USD39.00 had strengthen further the market upward momentum. Market looks may challenge the next overhead resistance at USD40.00 to 40.77 (highest for the year. As now, downside support is pegged at USD37.00.

NYMEX Crude Daily: Likely to challenge USD85


Bulls won the battle and violated the immediate upside resistance at USD80.00 convincingly. Looks it may want to challenge the next upside projection at USD85.00 in near term. To the downside, support remains at USD75.00

FCPO Daily: Consolidating


Nothing much changes as prices stuck with its minimal movement. Thus, market may consolidate in near term in the range of 2240 to 2100. Violation of either one may provide more clearer direction to the market.

FKLI Daily: Uptrend remains intact


Uptrend remains intact despite prices retreat after hit the fresh high at 1273.5. A healthy correction is needed in order for a sustainable rally in near term. Thus, we maintain our upside projection at 1280 followed by 1300. Downside support is maintain at 1260-1250.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks retreated from 12-month highs on Tuesday as disappointing housing and inflation data prompted investors to book recent gains despite strong results from bellwethers including Apple and Caterpillar.

But the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average dropped 50.71 points, or 0.50 percent, to end at 10,041.48. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 6.85 points, or 0.62 percent, to 1,091.06. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shed
12.85 points, or 0.59 percent, to close at 2,163.47.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - New front-month December crude futures extended losses in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after industry inventory data showed that domestic crude oil stockpiles rose more than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 5:05 p.m. EDT (2105 GMT), December crude was down $1.31, or 1.64 percent, at $78.64 a barrel. It had settled earlier at $79.12, down 84 cents, or 1.05 percent, trading $78.32 to $80.40.

Earlier, November crude expired and settled down 52 cents, or 0.65 percent, at $79.09. It traded from $78.05 to $80.05, the highest since the $84.83 intraday peak on Oct. 14, 2008.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November down 13-3/4 cents at $9.82-1/2 a bushel. Profit taking after the big gains on Monday weighs. Firm dollar and weak stock market also add to bearish tone as did devaluation of Brazilian real, which makes Brazil's beans more competitive on the world market.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December down 0.12 cent per lb at 37.47. Profit-taking after Monday's gains.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged down 0.8 percent on Tuesday, reversing early gains, amid renewed concerns over demand after cargo surveyors announced weak exports in the first 20 days of the month, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange settled down 17 ringgit, or 0.8 percent, to 2,180 ringgit ($648.42) a tonne, coming off an intraday high of 2,216. Overall volume was 14,692 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Thai stocks fell almost one percent on Tuesday, hit by late selling in energy shares, while Indonesia snapped a five-day winning streak with financial stocks and Bumi Resources leading the way.

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> edged down 0.02 percent, Malaysia's index <.KLSE> gained 0.3 percent, still hovering at more than 16-month highs, the Philippines <.PSI> gained 0.5 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> climbed 1.6 percent.

In the city-state, Singapore Telecom fell 0.63 percent and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp dropped 1.2 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, palm plantation firm IOI Corp was up 1.5 percent and financial firm AMMB Holding rose 3.03 percent. RHB Capital dropped 4.2 percent after its plan to buy a stake in Indonesia's Bank Mestika Dharma.

FCPO Daily: Hovering at 2,100 levels


Upward move has been slowing down a little following prices facing some tough resistance at 2200 levels. Thus, market may move in sideways in near term. As for now, we maintain the immediate downside support at 2140-2130 followed by 2108-2085 (unfilled gap left over since 12/10/2009). To the upside, resistance is pegged at 2217-2240.

FKLI Daily: Rally likely to continue


Another record high was seen after market violated 1270 immediate resistance levels. Thus, rally will likely to continue in near term with the next upside projection is looking at 1280 followed by 1300. Downside support is pegged at 1260-1250.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Breaking News-RPT-China expects delayed soy cargoes, talk of washout

BEIJING, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Chinese trading houses are believed to have washed out two or three U.S. soy cargoes for January shipment last week and switched to domestic soy due to subsidies expected to be offered by Beijing, a source with a major trading house said on Monday.
Persistent rains in the United States have delayed the soy harvest and the loading of cargoes due to arrive in China in November, which will further tighten soymeal supplies already tight because of low imports in October, traders said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose to fresh 12-month highs on Monday as optimistic investors rode a wave of solid quarterly earnings, which continued after the session's close when Apple Inc's shares jumped on its results.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> added 96.28 points, or 0.96 percent, to end at 10,092.19. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 10.23 points, or 0.94 percent, to 1,097.91. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 19.52 points, or 0.91 percent, to 2,176.32.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures gained for the eighth consecutive day on Monday, finishing at yet another one-year high as a weakened dollar supported investment flows and technical resistance gave way at $79 a barrel.

The dollar hovered near a 14-month low against the euro as investors bet the Federal Reserve will hold U.S. interest rates near zero well into next year.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude , which is expiring on Tuesday, settled $1.08 higher, or 1.38 percent, at $79.61 a barrel, the highest since the $81.19 close Oct. 13, 2008. It traded from $78.05 to $79.69, highest intraday since prices hit $84.83 on Oct. 14, 20008.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- November up 18-3/4 cents at $9.96-1/4 a bushel. U.S. harvest delays supportive, along with weaker dollar. Rains to move back into Midwest grain belt mid-week, adding to harvest delays. Strong export inspections support.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December up 0.65 cent per lb at 37.59 cents per lb. Support from gains in soybeans.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 0.9 percent on Monday but came off a five-week intraday high after talk in late trade that the October 1-20 exports were smaller than earlier expected, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange settled up 19 ringgit to 2,197 ringgit ($651.35) a tonne, after going as high as 2,217 early, a level not seen since Sept. 10. Overall volume was 16,357 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock
markets gained on Monday, with Malaysia climbing to its highest in more than 16 months while Thailand outpaced regional peers as investors piled into energy and banking shares.

Malaysia's index <.KLSE> gained 0.4 percent, coming off an early high to close at its highest since May 30, 2008, led by a 2.5 percent rise in gaming group Genting and 1.5 percent gain in finance firm CIMB Group .

Singapore's index <.FTSTI> inched up 0.13 percent, led by telecoms firm Singapore Telecommunication which was up 2.3 percent while banking shares were mixed ahead of earnings announcements later this month.

CBOT Soyoil Daily: More upside potential to come


Market close at day high at USD38.00 had beautified the immediate daily technical outlook to bias more upside potential. Market looks may want to challenge the overhead resistance at USD39.00. Downside support is pegged at USD37.00.

NYMEX Crude Daily: Likely to move higher in near term


Market violated the immediate resistance at USD78.00 and looks likely to move higher in near term. As for now, we are looking for the immediate upside resistance at USD80.00 followed by USD85.00. While, downside support is pegged at USD75.00

FCPO Daily: Immediate daily technical outlook strengthen further


Market strengthen further its upward momentum despite prices shy away at 2,200 levels. Market looks may continue to challenge the upside resistance at 2,200 to 2,240 followed by the next resistance at 2,280-2,299 (gap left over on 2/9/2009). Downside support is adjusted to 2140-2130 followed by 2108-2100 (unfilled gap left over since 11/10/2009)

Monday, October 19, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-US analyst sees larger S.American soy, corn crops

CHICAGO, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Helped by good early rains and improving economics, South American soybean acreage and production should rise in 2009/10, a respected U.S. analyst said Thursday.
Dr. Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean and Corn Advisor, projected 2009/10 South American soybean production at 125.0 million tonnes, up more than 30 percent from 95.8 million in 2008/09.
Cordonnier estimated Brazil's 2009/10 soybean crop at 62.5 million tonnes, above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's current estimate of 62.0 million.
For Argentina, Cordonnier estimated soybean output at 53.0 million tonnes, up sharply from 32.0 million in 2008/09 and above USDA's 2009/10 figure of 52.50 million tonnes.

Breaking News-RTRS-China purchases of South American soy to stay robust -survey

BEIJING, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Chinese companies are likely to maintain their strong interest in South American soybeans for shipment after April, although some crushers in the north may switch to domestic crops, according to an official survey.
"Domestic soybeans are available from October and some crushers in the north would focus their purchases on domestic crops and cut demand for imports," said the National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - World stocks fell and the euro retreated against the U.S. dollar on Friday as weak results from General Electric Co and Bank of America Corp dimmed confidence in a profit-driven economic recovery.

GE, the biggest U.S. conglomerate, reported a 42-percent drop in profit and Bank of America posted a quarterly loss, leading investors to rein in risk appetites whetted by strong JPMorgan Chase & Co results earlier in the week.

U.S. indexes dropped. The Dow industrials <.DJI> fell 67.03 points, or 0.67 percent, to 9,995.91. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> declined 8.88 points, or 0.81 percent, to 1,087.68, and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 16.49 points, or 0.76 percent, to 2,156.80.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures extended gains to a seventh straight session on Friday and closed at the highest level in a year, lifted by a late rally in gasoline futures and higher prices for heating oil.

The day's gains appeared to be a follow-through of Thursday's buying that was sparked by government data showing surprise drawdowns in gasoline and distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude settled up 95 cents, or 1.22 percent, at $78.53 a barrel, the highest close since Oct. 14, 2008's $78.63. It
traded from $76.82 to $78.67, the highest intraday since $79.17 was hit on Oct. 15, 2008. For the week, the contract gained $6.76, or 9.42 percent.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November down 5-1/2 cents at $9.77-1/2 a bushel. Better harvest weather for a few days weighing on soy futures but forecasts for wet and cool weather by mid-week underpinning the market.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December up 0.16 cent at 36.94. Choppy trade with early week rally in crude oil lending support.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures jumped 3.2 percent on Friday, bouncing from one-week lows hit the previous day after crude oil rose to another one-year high above $78 a barrel.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange settled up 67 ringgit to 2,178 ringgit ($646.1).

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended on Friday mixed, with Singapore's index heavyweights surrendering recent gains while Thailand climbed more than three percent in a rebound from a two-day selloff. Elsewhere, Singapore <.FTSTI> ended down 0.2 percent, after a 1.64 percent rise over the past two days which pushed the market to a 13-month high.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.8 percent with Public Bank up 0.4 percent as broker TA raised its recommendation on the bank to buy from sell, citing an improved outlook following better-than-expected results.

Bursa Malaysia rose 0.5 percent after reporting higher third quarter net profit and forecast good outlook for the remainder of the year.

FCPO Weekly: Surviving at above 2,100 levels


Not much improvement as market is still surviving at above 2,100 levels. Thus, market may move in sideways manner unless it manage to break out from the upside resistance at 2,200 to 2,240. Downside support is maintain at 2108-2100 (unfilled gap left over since 11/10/2009)

DJI Weekly: May want to challenge 10,300 levels.


Market looks may continue its fighting spirit to challenge the next resistance at 10,300 levels. While, downside support is pegged at 9,400 levels.

FKLI Weekly: Upward posture maintaining well


Market non-stop hitting new fresh high had kept the upward momentum in a very good posture. Thus, we continue to look for the immediate upside target at 1270-1280 followed by 1300 in near term. Downside support is pegged at 1200-1210.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures reversed yesterday losses to end generally higher on stronger external factors.

CPO futures reversed yesterday losses to end generally higher on stronger external factors. A good recovery in overnight CBOT soyoil coupled with strong rally in NYMEX crude oil futures which up more than USD2 traded above USD77.00 a barrel. This had provided speculative buying sentiment. Asian time zone trading also in positive tone. This also had further boost the bull’s confident. New benchmark Jan10 was trading steadily thought out the day and surged to settle RM 67 higher at 2178 after trading in the range between 2138-2178 with total daily volume stood at 21,218 contracts changed hands. About 50% of the trades were switches mostly between Dec09 versus Jan10.