Friday, December 4, 2009

NYMEX Crude Daily: Weaker


Market violated the physiological support at USD75.00 and tested the low at USD72.39 (low on 27/11/2009)had dampened the overall market momentum. Thus, market may move sideways to lower in near term. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at USD78.00-79.00. While, underline support will be pegged at USD72.39.

FCPO Daily: Consolidation is likely to continue


Consolidation is likely to continue as prices continue to cap in between 2400 to 2500 levels. Hence, Upside resistance and downside support maintain at 2521 and 2428-2419 levels respectively.

FKLI Daily: Struggling


Market is still struggling to survive above the physiological support at 1250 levels. Thus, market may continue its correction mode in near term. While to the upside, resistance is pegged at 1286.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Malaysia palm futures to fall in December - Mielke

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures and soybean futures are set to fall in December as they are overvalued, but may rise again in the following six months as the world replenishes oilseed and vegetable oil stocks, leading analyst Thomas Mielke said on Thursday.
"We think in December prices will go down also on fund selling but prices will be higher in January-June under the lead of sun oil," Mielke, chief executive of German oilseed analyst Oil World, told Reuters on the sidelines the three-day Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook 2010 on the resort island of Bali.

Breaking News-RTRS-RPT-UPDATE 1-INTERVIEW-Mistry:Palm output growth to slow in 2010

NUSA DUA, Indonesia Dec 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's largest palm oil producers, may experience slower output growth next year due to the resurgent El Nino weather condition, a top industry analyst said on Wednesday.
Drier weather from El Nino may hit yields, leading to tight palm oil supplies just as U.S. and South American soyoil from a record soy harvest enter markets from May, said Dorab Mistry, head of vegetable oils trading with Godrej International.
"El Nino is still very much a factor. We should watch out for the likely change in the weather from mid-December onwards," Mistry told Reuters on the sidelines of the three-day meeting -- Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook 2010 -- on Indonesia's resort island of Bali.

Breaking News-RTRS-Indonesia to build three palm oil ports to end delays

NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Indonesia plans to build three new ports for shipping palm oil to handle rising output in the world's top producer, a minister said on Wednesday amid trade complaints about port congestion delaying shipments.
Hatta Rajasa, coordinating minister for economic affairs, said the ports would be integrated into planned palm oil clusters in the province of North Sumatra, East Kalimantan and the country's top palm oil growing province of Riau.
Details on the planned ports should be ready within the first 100 days of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's new term in office that started in late October, Rajasa told a media briefing at the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook 2010.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq rose on Wednesday as strong online holiday sales boosted shares of retailers, including Amazon.com , and relieved some concerns about the consumer.

The Dow edged lower as falling oil prices prompted investors to sell energy shares, while the Standard & Poor's index finished flat.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> declined 18.90 points, or 0.18 percent, to end at 10,452.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> inched up just 0.38 of a point, or 0.03 percent, to finish at 1,109.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 9.22 points, or 0.42 percent, to close at 2,185.03.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 2 percent lower on Wednesday, stemming a two-day advance, as government data showed domestic crude inventories rose far more than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude settled down $1.77, or 2.26 percent, at $76.60 a barrel, trading from $76.22 to $78.59.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 25-1/2 cents at $10.34 per bushel. Profit-taking after the rally to three-month high early on Tuesday weighing on soybean futures, with additional pressure from firm dollar, weak crude oil and commercial hedge selling.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December down 0.83 at 39.75 cents per lb, January down 0.81 at 40.11. Pressure from weak soybeans and lower crude oil.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures were steady on Wednesday as traders waited for top analysts at an Indonesian industry conference to forecast the direction of the market.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended down 6 ringgit at 2,489 ringgit ($737.9).

Traded volumes shot up to 13,568 lots of 25 tonnes each, from the usual 10,000 lots, as dealers were switching to the March contract, which will become the benchmark contract in less than two weeks.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets were
mostly higher on Wednesday, extending gains as concern about Dubai's debt woes eased, but Thailand fell after a court lifted the suspension of only some plants at a huge industrial estate.

Singapore's benchmark stock index <.FTSTI> rose 0.9 percent, building on Tuesday's 1.4 percent gain, while Indonesia <.JKSE> rose 0.8 pecent to its highest in a week and Malaysia <.KLSE> inched up 0.4 percent.

Gains in Singapore were buoyed by banks, with DBS Group Holdings , Southeast Asia's top lender, climbing 1.3 percent and United Overseas Bank 1.7 percent higher.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said that its counterparty credit ratings on DBS Bank Ltd. were not affected by the bank's announcement of its credit exposure to Dubai.

Malaysian shares rose for the second day, supported by top lender Maybank , up 0.3 percent, and smaller Public Bank Bhd , up 0.7 percent, after the central bank chief said Malaysian banks had limited exposure to Dubai.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-Palm oil is vulnerable to price fall - Oil World

HAMBURG, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices are vulnerable to a price fall in coming weeks but any setback would be limited by a seasonal production fall which could again reduce current large stocks, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
"We see the potential for a setback in palm oil prices within the next four weeks," Oil World said. "Following the recent noticeable appreciation, we consider palm oil prices to be overvalued and vulnerable to a temporary setback."

Breaking News-RTRS-Soybean price could fall on fund sales- Oil World

HAMBURG, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Soybean prices could fall in the coming weeks despite high U.S. exports if investment funds take profits after recent price rises, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
"Futures prices of soybeans are vulnerable to a setback in the near term," it said. "After the pronounced strength during the past three to four weeks, soybean prices may decline if funds liquidate some of their long positions and lock in profits."

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The Dow Jones industrial average climbed to its highest close in 14 months on Tuesday as a weak dollar boosted natural resource companies' shares and economic data reinforced hopes for a sustainable recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> shot up 126.74 points, or 1.23 percent, to end at 10,471.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 13.23 points, or 1.21 percent, to 1,108.86. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> advanced 31.21 points, or 1.46 percent, to close at 2,175.81.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures pared gains in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after industry data showed that domestic crude stocks rose much more than expected last week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration will issue its own data on Wednesday, at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 5 p.m. EST (2200 GMT), January crude was up 55 cents, or 0.71 percent, at $77.83 a barrel. It earlier settled up $1.09, or 1.41 percent, at $78.37, trading from $77.01 to $79.04.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 1 cent at $10.59-1/2 a bushel. Pressured late by profit-taking after expected big fund buying didn't show up during early day gains to three-month high.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December up 0.39 cent at 40.58 cents per lb, January up 0.34 at 40.92. Support from strong crude oil market.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended 0.9 percent higher on Tuesday on investors taking up positions ahead of a price outlook conference this week for the vegetable oil.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 23 ringgit at 2,495 ringgit ($737.1) after spending much of the session in negative territory.

The three-day Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook 2010 at the resort island of Bali will start on Wednesday and feature analysts Dorab Mistry, Thomas Mielke and James Fry, who will give their views on the industry for next year.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended higher on Tuesday, with Thai stocks <.SETI> leading the gains, cheered by news there would be an early court ruling in a case involving the country's biggest industrial estate.

Analysts said easing concerns over Dubai's debt woes helped sentiment across the region, together with a comment from the International Monetary Fund's Asia-Pacific representative about Asian banks' limited exposure.

Singapore's stock index <.FTSTI> rose 1.42 percent, recovering from a fall to a two-week low a day earlier, while Malaysia's market <.KLSE> rose 0.6 percent, snapping a three-day losing streak, and Indonesia <.JKSE> gained 1.52 percent.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Monday, helping the Dow post its fifth straight monthly gain, on hopes that possible fallout from Dubai's debt woes will be contained.

Shortly before the market closed, Dubai's largest company said its planned restructuring of some units involved $26 billion in debt, easing some concerns about the size of Dubai's financial problems.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 34.92 points, or 0.34 percent, to end at 10,344.84. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 4.14 points, or 0.38 percent, at 1,095.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 6.16 points, or 0.29 percent, at 2,144.60.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than a dollar higher on Monday, rebounding from Friday's heavy losses as a weak dollar attracted buyers and geopolitical risk premium related to Iran also raised jitters, traders and analysts said.

They cited fears over Iran's announcement on Sunday that it planned to build 10 uranium enrichment plants and news late on Monday that Iran had restructured its naval forces for operations in the Persian Gulf in the event of a conflict.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude settled up $1.23, or 1.62 percent, at $77.28 a barrel, trading from $75.13 to $78. For the month, front-month crude rose 28 cents, or 0.36 percent.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January up 7-1/2 cents at $10.60-1/2 per bushel. Rallied to session highs on month-end buying and dollar weakness. But export inspections data disappoints.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December up 0.09 cent at 40.19 cents per lb; January up 0.06 at 40.58 cents. Choppy, turning firm as soybeans and crude oil advance.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged lower as financial markets looked for signs that Dubai's debt problems might slow the global economic recovery.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 10 ringgit down at 2,472 ringgit ($730.7) a tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Monday, with gains led by top financial counters after the United Arab Emirates' pledge of support for its banks, lifting Thailand's Bangkok Bank and Indonesia's Bank Mandiri from multi-week lows.

Regional stocks and currencies rose as the panic surrounding the Dubai debt problems subsided and investors realised local exposure to Dubai was limited, analysts said. Some felt the reaction to the whole saga had probably been overdone.

In Singapore, the index <.FTSTI> shed 1.1 percent to its lowest in more than two weeks, dragged down by a loss of nearly 3 percent in DBS Group , which has some exposure to the Middle East, while City Developments , which has a joint venture with Dubai World in Singapore, dropped 1.4 percent.

Elsewhere in the region, Malaysia <.KLSE> fell 0.9 percent after trade resumed on Monday following a holiday last Friday. Markets in the Philippines <.PSI> were shut for a holiday.

FCPO Daily: Surviving


Market is still surviving at above 2400 levels as prices manage to bounce back to close off the day high. Thus, market may enter into consolidation zone in near term. Upside resistance will be looking at 2521. While, downside support remains at 2428-2419 (gap left over on 23/11/2009).

FKLI Daily: Losing ground


Market is losing ground after fully covered the downside gap at 1262.5-1258. Break of the physiological support at 1250 levels may provide more room to bias downside potential. While to the upside, resistance is pegged at 1270-1275 followed by 1286.

Monday, November 30, 2009

Trader's Highlights

DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 27 - U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent in a truncated session on Friday as a possible debt default by a Dubai state-owned conglomerate led to fresh concerns about the global financial system.

The sell-off was broad, with selling concentrated mainly in the financial and commodity-linked sectors as investors trimmed positions in areas of the market most sensitive to economic uncertainty.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 154.48 points, or 1.48 percent, to end at 10,309.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 19.14 points, or 1.72 percent, to 1,091.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 37.61 points, or 1.73 percent, to 2,138.44.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Nov 27 - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Friday amid concerns about a possible default at a Dubai state-owned conglomerate that lifted the dollar and also pressured equity markets. Dubai said on Wednesday two of its flagship firms planned to delay repayment on debt as a step toward restructuring the Dubai World conglomerate.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude fell $1.91, or 2.45 percent, to settle at $76.05 a barrel. Friday's intraday low was $72.39, the weakest since dropping to $70.62 on Oct. 9. Friday's high trade was $77.94.

SOYBEANS
- January down 1-1/2 cents at $10.53 per bushel. Market came off day's lows as corn rallied. Initial pressure stemmed from strength in U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. products less competitive and prompts large investors to sell commodities as a hedge against inflation.

SOYOIL
- December down 0.47 cent at 40.10 cents per lb. Pressured by weaker crude oil and meal/oil spreading.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 26 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended flat on Thursday, easing from a 15-week high hit earlier in the session on some profit-taking after crude oil weakened in late Asian trade.

Palm oil climbed to its highest since Aug. 13 after top Asian buyers such as China and India bought more palm oil since the vegetable oil's discount to rival soyoil has widened to $130-$150 a tonne versus $100 generally.

Prospects of heavy rain cutting into production also lifted the market, which has risen 6.7 percent since Nov. 16.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 39 ringgit to 2,521 ringgit ($746.5) before ending unchanged when profit taking settled in.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
- BANGKOK, Nov 27 - Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Friday as concern about a debt crisis in Dubai fuelled selling in banks and big caps such as Indonesia's Bank Mandiri, Thailand's Italian-Thai and the Philippines' Metropolitan Bank.

Indonesia's benchmark stock index dropped 2.8 percent to its lowest in more than two weeks, Thailand's index lost 0.8 percent to its lowest since Nov. 4 and the Philippines slid 1.5 percent to a one-week low.

Vietnam rose 1.7 percent, stemming its losses after an interest rate rise and currency devaluation. Stock markets in Singapore and Malaysia were closed for national holidays.

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-US Oct soy crush 163.06 mln bu-Census Bureau

-U.S. OCT SOYBEAN CRUSH 163.06 MLN BUSHELS -- CENSUS BUREAU
-U.S. OCT TOTAL FACTORY/WAREHOUSE SOYOIL STOCKS 2.727 BILLION LBS-- CENSUS
-U.S. OCT SOYMEAL/HULLMEAL STOCKS 444,940 SHORT TONS -- CENSUS BUREAU

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Indonesia keeps Dec palm oil export tax at zero

JAKARTA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Indonesia will keep its palm oil export tax at zero for the fifth consecutive month in December but will raise the crude palm oil (CPO) base export price to $623 a tonne from $595 in November due to a price rise, a trade ministry official said on Wednesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose in light trading volume on Wednesday, supported by data that pointed to stabilization in the labor and housing markets, areas that have fed concerns about a "double dip" recession.

Trading volume was among the lightest of the year one day before the Thanksgiving holiday, with many senior traders absent from trading floors. Even so, the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 edged to fresh 13-month highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 30.69 points, or 0.29 percent, to end at 10,464.40. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 4.98 points, or 0.45 percent, to 1,110.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> advanced 6.87 points, or 0.32 percent, to close at 2,176.05.

U.S. financial markets will be closed on Thursday to mark Thanksgiving. On Friday, trading resumes, but the U.S. stock market will close early at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT).

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose on Wednesday, lifted by the weak dollar after a government oil inventory report showed crude stocks rose last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude rose $1.94, or 2.55 percent, to settle at $77.96 a barrel, trading from $75.50 to $78.04.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January up 8-1/2 cents at $10.54-1/2 a bushel. Market turns higher after early weakness as crude oil prices rally. Strong global demand continues to lend strength to soy, which closed 1 cent below its intraday high.

U.S. Census pegs October soybean crush at 163.06 million bushels, slightly below estimates for 163.7 million bushels.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December up 0.87 cent at 40.57 cents per lb. Rally in crude oil, weak dollar support prices.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil scored 15-week highs on Wednesday, supported by speculation rainy weather will hit output, but ended back from those highs on slowing export growth as reported by cargo surveyors.

Palm oil scaled its highest since Aug.14 earlier in the session. The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 40 ringgit to 2,518 ringgit ($746.9) before settling 3 ringgit higher at 2,481 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Vietnam's stock market hit a
three-month low on Wednesday after the central bank raised interest rates and devalued the currency but Thailand rose nearly 3 percent on relief an anti-government protest was postponed.

Singapore edged higher while other Southeast Asian markets eased slightly. In Singapore, shares in CapitaMalls Asia gained 8.5 percent to S$2.3 on their debut, compared with the initial public offer price of S$2.12.

In Kuala Lumpur, financial firm AMMB Holdings was down 2.4 percent and telecoms firm Maxis was up 1.9 percent.

CBOT Soyoil Daily: Gaining ground


Market recovered with closing at day high at USc41.10. However, more strength is still needed to break out from the recent high at USc41.15 in order for a more sustainable rally. As for now, we continue to look for the immediate upside resistance at USc41.15 followed by USc42.23-USc42.48 (gap left over on 6/10/2009). Immediate downside support is adjusted to USc40.00.

NYMEX Crude Daily: Range trading


Market looks defended well at USD75.00. Thus, market may trade in the range between USD75.00 to USD82.00 in near term. Violation of either one may give a more clearer direction.

FCPO Daily: Likely to challenge 2521 and higher


Market is getting closer to the upside target at 2521 levels. Violation of it may provide more room to further upside potential. Next resistance will be looking at 2580-2600. While, downside support remains at 2428-2419 (gap left over on 23/11/2009).