Friday, June 22, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks posted the worst day in three weeks on Thursday on mounting evidence that slowing manufacturing growth worldwide threatened corporate profits.

Shares of energy and materials companies led declines as commodity prices fell. U.S. crude futures slipped below $80 a barrel for the first time since October and the S&P energy sector index <.GSPE> lost 4 percent. Investors said weak overseas demand was responsible for the decline in those industries.

Stocks' slide was accelerated by a bearish call from Goldman Sachs, which recommended clients build short positions in the broad S&P 500 index on expectations of more economic weakness. [ID:nL1E8HLESN]

"We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1,285," (roughly 5 percent below current levels), Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Business activity across the euro zone shrank for a fifth straight month in June and Chinese manufacturing contracted, while weaker overseas demand slowed growth by U.S. factories. [ID:nL1E8HL9AU]

"While we've seen only two of many regional manufacturing surveys for June, there is a clear deterioration taking place, with only the degree being the broad issue," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 251.35 points, or 1.96 percent, at 12,573.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 30.19 points, or 2.23 percent, at 1,325.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 71.36 points, or 2.44 percent, at 2,859.09.

"The market was extremely overbought coming into this week, and the news gave it an excuse to sell off," said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James Financial in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Softening data globally lifted hopes of central bank action to support the economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday it would extend one monetary stimulus program and said it was ready to do more to help economic growth if necessary.

After the bell, Moody's Investors Service cut the credit ratings of 15 of the world's biggest banks in a highly anticipated move that was part of a broad review of major financial institutions. [ID:nL1E8HCCPK]

Among the moves, Moody's cut JPMorgan Chase & Co's long-term senior debt to A2 from Aa3 and assigned it a negative outlook negative. It also cut Morgan Stanley's long-term senior unsecured debt to Baa1 from A2 and also assigned it a negative outlook.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures slumped nearly 4 percent on Thursday to end at an eight-month low as dreary economic data from China, the United States and the euro zone and abundant crude oil supply extended the week's sell-off.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell by the close of pit trading, halting a three-day rally in the front contract, as profit-taking and concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth overshadowed worries about dry weather threatening U.S. crop prospects.

* Stocks on major markets fell and crude oil prices slumped $2 a barrel after data showed Chinese, European and U.S. manufacturing activity slowing further, a day after the Federal Reserve extended its monetary stimulus program. [MKTS/GLOB]

* Nearby July soybeans traded higher at times on expectations of fresh export demand for old-crop U.S. soybeans and spillover support from soymeal futures, which rose on strong export sales.

* USDA reported export sales of U.S. soymeal in the latest week at 282,000 tonnes, well above trade expectations for 50,000 to 150,000 tonnes.

* USDA reported weekly sales of U.S. soybeans at 608,000 tonnes, below a range of trade estimates for 700,000 to 900,000 tonnes. Top buyer China accounted for 434,000 tonnes for 2012/13 delivery, but canceled 83,100 tonnes for 2011/12 delivery. [ID:nIGB21404A]

* USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soyoil at 20,400 tonnes, above trade expectations for 5,000 to 15,000 tonnes.

* Cropcast, a private weather service, lowered its U.S. 2012 soybean crop yield estimate to 42.4 bushels per acre, from its previous forecast of 44.1 and USDA's outlook of 43.9. [ID:nL1E8HLB3G]

* Traders eyeing moderate open interest the $14.40 and $14.50 strikes in soybeans ahead of July options expiration at 1:15 p.m. CDT (1815 GMT) on Friday.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged lower on Thursday as traders booked profits from rallies earlier in the week, while sentiment also turned cautious on weak economic data and disappointing stimulus measures by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Palm oil prices hit a three-week high after the midday break on concerns that dry weather in the United States could tighten global oilseeds supply, but the gain could not be sustained as bleak data showing a slowdown in Chinese and European factory activity took centrestage. [ID:nL3E8HL0Z9][ID:nL5E8HKER8]

The move by the Fed to extend its programme of selling short-term securities and buying longer-dated ones disappointed investors who had hoped for a third round of quantitative easing, weighing on financial markets across the board. [ID:nL1E8HKEKN]

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange slipped 1.4 percent to close at 3,000 ringgit ($945) per tonne. Prices went as high as 3,062 ringgit, a level unseen since June 1.

Traded volumes stood at 36,568 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots as activities picked up after the midday break.

Palm oil prices are however on track for a more than 5 percent gain this week, after three straight weeks of losses.

"The Greek election brought in some funds buying," said a trader with a domestic commodities brokerage in Malaysia, referring to gains in palm oil earlier this week on optimism stemming from the victory of pro-bailout parties in Greece.

"However the surge also brought in demand destruction and palm olein prices above $990 saw very few takers."

Rising exports confirmed stronger demand for the tropical oil on last-minute buying ahead of the Muslim fasting month thatstarts in late July.

Malaysian palm oil exports grew 15 percent to above 990,000 tonnes in the first 20 days of the month, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

Adding to the supportive factors for palm oil was the dry weather in the United States as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said unfavourable weather had damaged soybean crop quality.

A lower soybean crop to be crushed into soybean oil could shift more demand to the cheaper refined palm oil.

REGIONAL EQUITY- June 21 (Reuters) - All Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Thursday, mostly led by commodities shares, on renewed global growth concerns after Chinese factory activity shrank for the eighth straight month.

Though the U.S. central bank extended its programme of selling short-term securities and buying longer-dated ones as expected, it did not signal a more aggressive third round of quantitative easing, further disappointing some investors. [ID:nL1E8HKEKN]

A survey of private sector activity in China compiled by HSBC showed its giant factory sector had shrunk for an eighth straight month in June on weaker demand for exports.

Thailand <.SETI> fell 1.2 percent led by energy shares, Singapore <.FTSTI> ended 0.9 percent weaker, dragged down by a 5.4 percent fall in commodities firm Olam International Ltd , and the Philippines <.PSI> closed 0.7 percent down.

Indonesia <.JKSE> lost 1.2 percent, though it saw $2.5 million of foreign inflow, while Malaysia <.KLSE> edged down 0.2 percent despite enjoying $31.99 million of net foreign buying on Thursday.

"The market was following the rest of the region with shares related to oil and coal coming down," said Harry Su, head of research at Jakarta-based brokerage Bahana Securities, referring to Indonesian market.

"We have been downgrading the prices of coal-related shares and that might have knock-on effect on the other shares as well."

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - Major stock indexes ended a choppy trading session flat to slightly lower on Wednesday w hile Treasuries trimmed losses after the Federal Reserve extended monetary stimulus to keep the U.S. economic recovery from stalling.

Analysts said investors had expected the U.S. central bank to extend its bond-buying program - dubbed "Operation Twist" - but noted some were disappointed that it stopped short of more aggressive measures to boost growth in the face of slower U.S. hiring and a festering European debt crisis. [ID:nL1E8HJKSF]

In Operation Twist, which was to end this month, the Fed sells short-term debt it holds to buy longer-term bonds in hopes of lowering long-term borrowing costs.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that policymakers were ready and able to do more if needed, but offered few specifics.

"The most dovish investors were looking for something a little more concrete about the path to more easing, but so far, Bernanke has sounded non-committal," Standard Chartered currency strategist Mike Moran said. "He's leaving the door ajar, but that's still a slight disappointment for some."

John Canally, investment strategist and economist at LPL Financial, said "there were a lot of guys out there with the finger on the 'sell' button unless they saw balance-sheet expansion."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dipped 12.94 points, or 0.10 percent, to 12,824.39 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> edged down 2.29 points, or 0.17 percent, to 1,355.69. But the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> inched up 0.69 of a point, or 0.02 percent, to 2,930.45.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended nearly 3 percent lower on Wednesday as domestic crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week while the Federal Reserve's extension of a program to stimulate the economy disappointed investors.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher for
a third straight day on Wednesday on tightening U.S. supplies and worries about dry weather threatening the yield potential of the 2012 crop, traders said.

* Most-active November soybeans hit an intraday high of $13.95-3/4 per bushel, approaching its contract high at $14.00, a key resistance level.

* Spot July supported by sales of old-crop U.S. soybeans announced Tuesday, a reminder that U.S. soy remains competitive on the world market following crop losses in South America.

* Rain in southern Brazil is causing delays at the country's largest agricultural commodities ports, Santos and Paranagua, where more than 250 vessels are waiting to unload or load fertilizers, grains, sugar and other cargoes. [ID:nL1E8HK0FI]

* Dry weather is expected to keep stress on U.S. Midwest corn and soy crops for at least the next two weeks. "There's not much change in the forecasts, still not much rain for the next couple of weeks in the dry areas such as Indiana and southern Illinois," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

* Karst said plentiful rains fell in the north and northwest Midwest in the last day but the central and southeast remained too dry. Temperatures will be a little cooler beginning mid-week, with highs in the 80s Fahrenheit rather than the 90s.

* The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved the Chicago Board of Trade's plan to extend open-outcry grain trading by 45 minutes a day until 2 p.m. CDT, starting Monday. [ID:nL1E8HK8Q9]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures hit their highest in almost three weeks on Wednesday, as investors bet on higher demand for palm oil after hot and dry U.S. weather threatened to curb the soy crop available for crushing into edible oil.

Market players were also optimistic ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later in the day, hoping for a new round of monetary stimulus that could boost global growth and commodity demand. [MKTS/GLOB]

A 15-percent jump in Malaysian palm oil exports for the June 1-20 period from a month ago confirmed a shift of orders to the tropical oil and last-minute buying ahead of the Muslim month of fasting called Ramadan that starts in late July.

Palm oil prices crossed above the 3,000-ringgit mark for the first time since June 11, signalling traders were less cautious after the Greece elections helped ease concerns over the euro zone debt crisis.

"Demand is expected to grow as we are moving into the Ramadan month," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"There's an understanding that the earlier selldown was due to the uncertainty in Europe. The crisis is still there but it's not as bad compared to before the Greece elections."

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange jumped 3.2 percent to close at 3,041 ringgit ($964) per tonne, after going as high as 3,058 ringgit, a level unseen since June 1.

Traded volumes stood at 52,086 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than double the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil will test resistance at 3,024 ringgit, a break above which will open the way towards 3,140 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL3E8HK1YG]

Malaysian palm oil exports grew to 991,917 tonnes in the first 20 days of the month, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. [PALM/ITS]

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance also reported a 15 percent increase in exports to 996,662 tonnes for the same period. [PALM/SGS]

Dry weather in the United States is in focus as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said unfavourable weather had damaged soybean crop quality.

A lower soybean crop could lead to a smaller supply of soybean oil, shifting demand to the cheaper refined palm oil.

REGIONAL EQUITY- June 20 (Reuters) - All Southeast Asian stock markets gained on Wednesday for a third straight day as hopes for new monetary stimulus by major central banks and the U.S. Federal Reserve helped boost investor appetite for risky assets.

Investors hope that Europe's worsening debt crisis and faltering global growth will prompt a new round of monetary stimulus. [ID:nL1E8HJKSF]

"Everybody is hopeful of major central banks will be looking for coordinated effort," to avert faltering global growth amid the lingering euro zone debt crisis," said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB, based in Singapore.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.6 percent in heavy trading volume to 1,604.39 points, near its record high of 1,609.33 hit on April 3. There was a net foreign inflow of $12.07 million.

Indonesia <.JKSE>, the region's worst performing stock market this year, rose 1.6 percent to a four-week high even though there was net foreign selling of $7.7 million. The Philippines <.PSI> gained 1.3 percent to its highest since May 11 while Singapore <.FTSTI> added 0.5 percent to hit a five-week high.

Thailand <.SETI> edged up 0.01 percent to its highest since May 17 and Vietnam <.VNI> added 0.4 percent.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

RTRS-Oil World sees falling U.S. soybean inventories

HAMBURG, June 19 (Reuters) - Strong export demand is set to sharply reduce U.S. soybean inventories up to August while South American stocks are already being cut, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Oil World has cut its forecast of U.S. Aug. 31 soybean inventories to 4.2 million tonnes from 4.6 million tonnes the analyst estimated in May and down from 5.85 million tonnes of U.S. stocks on Aug. 31, 2011.

"The global demand is now increasingly switching to the U.S., cutting U.S. stocks to bare minimum levels as of end-Aug. 2012," Oil World said. "The forthcoming huge increase in U.S. exports of soybeans and meal may become a logistical nightmare in the next 6-7 months."

Oil World forecasts that U.S. soybean exports will rise by almost 40 percent in coming months as global demand moves to the U.S. after poor soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina. [ID:nL5E8H4D99]

"Considerably smaller South American supplies and larger than expected world import requirements raised the demand for U.S. soybeans and products in May," Oil World said. "This trend is going to accelerate from June onward, resulting in significant year-on-year increases in U.S. soybean disposals."

Meanwhile, South American soybean stocks are also being run down, it said.

In South America, this year's poor crop coupled with strong export demand has cut soybean inventories sharply, Oil World estimates.

June 1 soybean stocks in the five main regional exporters Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay fell to 72.36 million tonnes from 96.09 million tonnes on June 1, 2011, it estimates. Record Chinese purchases contributed to the fall, it said.

Argentina's June 1 soybean stocks fell to 31.34 million tonnes from 40.32 million tonnes on June 1, 2011, it estimates. Brazil's stocks fell to 36.72 million tonnes from 48.90 million, it said.

RTRS-Latin America soybean sowings to expand -Oil World

HAMBURG, June 19 (Reuters) - Argentine and Brazilian farmers are likely to expand soybean plantings at the expense of grains for their 2013 crop because of higher profits from the oilseed, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

"Farmers in South America are getting more enthusiastic about expanding soybean cultivation, taking advantage of the comparatively lower production costs in relation to grains and favourable price prospects," Oil World said.

"Many of them have already started marketing their 2013 crops seven to nine months ahead of harvest in an effort to benefit from the current attractive prices."

The United States is the world's largest soybean producer followed by Brazil and Argentina, but Argentina is the largest soymeal and soyoil exporter.

Argentine farmers are likely to plant 19.60 million hectares of soybeans for the 2012/13 crop for harvesting in early 2013, up from 18.53 million being harvested in 2012, Oil World estimated.

Argentine farmers are likely to reduce 2012/13 wheat plantings to 3.60 million hectares from 4.63 million this season, but also raise 2012/13 corn sowings to 5.10 million hectares from 4.96 million, it said.

"Under favourable weather conditions, the Argentine soybean crop could reach a record 54.5 to 55.5 million tonnes in 2013," Oil World said.

Oil World repeated its forecast that Argentina's 2012 soybean crop will fall to or slightly below 40 million tonnes. [ID:nL5E8GT5RI] The Argentine government estimates 41.5 million tonnes. [ID:nL1E8HFIW0]

Brazilian farmers are likely to plant 26.40 million hectares of soybeans for harvesting in 2013, up from 25.04 million hectares harvested this year, Oil World said.

Brazil's farmers are likely to plant 14.40 million hectares of corn for the 2013 crop, down from 15.12 million hectares harvested this year, it said.

This year's Brazilian winter corn harvest is set to reach a record size, leading to a build-up of burdensome stocks despite high exports to China, and so reducing the attraction of the grain to farmers, it said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday on hopes that the Federal Reserve will agree to extend stimulus measures as the economy struggles to recover and the euro zone's debt crisis gets worse.

The S&P 500 has gained 7.2 percent from a five-month intraday low reached on June 4. On Tuesday, the benchmark index closed above its 50-day moving average of 1,346.90 for the first time in seven weeks. But the sharp gains leave the market vulnerable if the outcome of Wednesday's Fed meeting doesn't meet market expectations.

"People are anticipating some type of response from the Fed tomorrow, and are buying or covering shorts in anticipation of that," said Paul Zemsky, head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management in New York. "There's a risk the market gets disappointed."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 95.51 points, or 0.75 percent, to 12,837.33 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> advanced 13.20 points, or 0.98 percent, to 1,357.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 34.43 points, or 1.19 percent, to close at 2,929.76.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rebounded on Tuesday as investors bet that Federal Reserve policymakers, who are holding a two-day meeting, will agree to provide further stimulus to the sluggish economy and that inventory data will show a drawdown in crude stocks.

Hopes that Greece will shortly form a coalition government and renegotiate its bailout package with lenders added to positive sentiment.

News that Iran hoped for a new round of talks with world powers over its nuclear program after its latest negotiations were deadlocked had helped pull prices lower, traders said.

Euro zone worries persisted after a German government official said that there was no discussion at the G20 summit in Mexico this week about using Europe's rescue funds to buy up the bonds of stricken members of the euro zone.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for July delivery settled at $84.03 a barrel, up 76 cents, or 0.91 percent, after trading between $82.28 and $84.41.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged to a one-month high on Tuesday on fresh export business and worries about stressful crop weather threatening yields in the U.S. Midwest, traders said.

Front-month soybeans were up 3.7 percent by the end of pit trading at 1:15 p.m. CDT (1815 GMT), the biggest daily rise in eight months. The contract reached an intraday peak of $14.51-1/2 per bushel, the highest spot soy price since May 10.

November soybeans "gapped" higher on the open -- the contract's low was above the previous day's high -- in a bullish show of strength in the market, analysts said.

Additional support was from declining crop ratings. USDA said 56 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition as of Sunday, a drop from 60 percent the previous week.

Private analyst Oil World cut its forecast of U.S. Aug. 31 soybean inventories to 4.2 million tonnes, from 4.6 million in May, and down from 5.85 million on Aug. 31, 2011. The firm cited strong export demand due to poor crops in Brazil and Argentina.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on Tuesday on expectations of increased demand due to concerns that dry U.S. weather could damage the soybean crop, tightening global edible oil supply.

A victory by pro-bailout parties in the Greek polls over the weekend had sent palm oil futures to close just below the 2,900-ringgit mark on Monday.

But as optimism has faded in broader financial markets, dry weather has come into focus as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said unfavourable weather had damaged soybean crop quality.

"Prices should remain positive with the Greeks behind us. Dry weather in the U.S. Midwest also supports a bullish stance," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark September palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 1.7 percent to close at 2,948 ringgit ($934) per tonne, after rising as high as 2,959 ringgit.

Traded volumes stood at 39,877 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- June 19 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets gained on Tuesday with Malaysia hitting a two-month high, but renewed concerns over the euro zone trimmed volumes.

Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 0.8 percent with a $13.28 million in foreign inflows, while Singapore <.FTSTI> and Thailand <.SETI> added 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent respectively, while the Philippines <.PSI> rose 0.6 percent.

Optimism over a possible solution to Greece's debt crisis eroded as concerns over Spain's borrowing cost hit investor appetite for risky assets.

"Markets are still likely to remain choppy for a while," said Chang Chiou Yi, a regional strategist at CIMB-GK Research. Indonesia <.JKSE> ended 0.5 percent firmer despite $5.2 million net in foreign selling.

"I think the policy risk concerns on Indonesia is overplayed," she said. "The market is domestically driven with solid earnings growth and should hold up well. Even in global growth weakness, the Indonesian market has its own demand support."

Monday, June 18, 2012

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Informa raises U.S. corn, soy plantings estimates

CHICAGO, June 15 (Reuters) - Private analytical firm Informa Economics raised its estimate of U.S. 2012 corn plantings to 96.759 million acres (39.2 million hectares), from its previous forecast of 96.124 million, trade sources said Friday.

Informa's latest figure is above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's March 30 corn plantings forecast of 95.9 million acres, which, if confirmed, would represent the most U.S. acres seeded to corn since 1937.

Informa also raised its U.S. 2012 soybean plantings estimate to 75.959 million acres, from 75.822 million in its last estimate, issued May 4.

The firm's latest soybean estimate is 2 million acres higher than USDA's March forecast of 73.9 million acres.

Informa left its estimate for seedings of U.S. spring wheat (other than durum wheat) at 13.476 million acres, unchanged from its May forecast. Informa projected U.S. 2012 all-wheat plantings at 57.6 million acres, also unchanged from its May forecast.

USDA projects U.S. all-wheat plantings at 55.9 million acres.

Informa officials had no comment on the figures, but the firm said in a note to clients that its estimates were based on a survey conducted in late May and early June, along with an evaluation of planting developments in the first half of June.

The firm noted that planting got off to an unusually early start across the U.S. Corn Belt and progressed quickly, with few interruptions.

"The rapid corn planting is believed to be a feature in the corn acreage being up 600-plus thousand acres from Informa's May estimate as planting momentum added corn acreage versus earlier expectations," the note said.

RTRS-Brazil grain industry raises '11/'12 soy estimate

SAO PAULO, June 14 (Reuters) - Brazil's grain industry association Abiove said on Thursday it estimates the 2011/12 soybean crop that finished harvest in May at 66.2 million tonnes, up slightly from the 65.9 million tonnes forecast in April.

Brazil harvested a record 75.2 million tonnes of soybeans in the previous crop. Drought over the grain belt cut the current crop's potential by about 10 million tonnes.

The association said it expects exports of soybeans to reach 30 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous forecast. Brazil exported a record 33.8 million tonnes from the 2010/11 crop.

Abiove does not explain why it adjusts its estimates, which are based on a survey of associated crushing plants.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Friday to close a second straight week of gains on hopes of collective action from global central banks if Sunday's election in Greece triggers market turmoil.

The news helped offset the latest round of weak U.S. economic data, which pointed to sluggish domestic growth. But traders were cautious and safe-haven U.S. bond prices also rose on Friday.

Materials <.GSPM>, energy <.GSPE> and financial <.GSPF> shares led the market's gains, with each of the three S&P 500 sector indexes up 1 percent or more. Officials of the Group of 20 leading nations told
Reuters on Thursday that central banks of major economies would take steps to stabilize markets and prevent a credit squeeze, if necessary.
The news spurred sharp gains late in Thursday's session. Later reports of the European Central Bank hinting at an interest-rate cut and Britain's pledge to flood banks with cash sparked further bullishness.

"It pokes a hole in the balloon of bad news after more bad news," said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer of Philadelphia Trust Co.

"None of the (U.S.) economic data we saw today were impressive. The gains seem to be based more on hope and less on the economic reports."

For the week, the Dow industrials gained 1.7 percent, the S&P 500 added 1.3 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.5 percent. Despite the stock market's gains, the safe-haven U.S. Treasury 10-year note shot up 18/32 in price, with the yield at 1.579 percent.

On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 115.26 points, or 0.91 percent, to 12,767.17 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 13.74 points, or 1.03 percent, to 1,342.84. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> rose 36.47 points, or 1.29 percent, to end at 2,872.80.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended little changed on thin volume Friday as investors awaited crucial elections in Greece this weekend, although hopes were up that central banks would counteract any negative results from the poll.

Economic worries also prompted investors to limit exposure, after data showed weak U.S. manufacturing activity in May and a survey revealed that consumer confidence fell in early June to a six-month low.

The slowing U.S. recovery and a deepening debt crisis in Europe have increased the odds of a further easing of monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve, although economists are divided on whether the central bank will act when it meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

After OPEC decided on Wednesday to hold its output target steady at 30 million barrels per day for the second half of the year, Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said members will reduce currently higher-than-ceiling production and that effects should be seen in July.

Analysts were skeptical, however, as any reduction would mostly come from Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for July delivery ended up a second day and settled at $84.03 a barrel, rising 12 cents, or 0.14 percent. For the week, it edged down 7 cents, following a 1 percent gain in the week to June 8.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Nearby soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third day by the close of pit trading as traders liquidated long positions to guard against adverse market reaction to the weekend election in Greece.

Front-month soybeans unofficially ended the week down 3.5 percent, the third decline in the past four weeks.

Back months, including new-crop November , ended higher on worries about warmer weather in the U.S. Midwest.

However, light showers are expected this weekend in dry areas of the southern Midwest, which will ease stress on the crop.

USDA confirmed sales of 382,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans, mostly to China, and cancellation of 147,000 tonnes of soybeans to China for delivery this year. The new purchases included 262,000 tonnes to China for delivery in 2012/13 and 120,000 tonnes to unknown destinations for 2011/12.

Informa Economics raised its U.S. 2012 soybean plantings estimate to 76.0 million acres, from 75.8 million previously, traders said. The firm's figure was more than 2 million acres above USDA's last forecast of 73.9 million acres.

Brazil's grain industry association Abiove on Thursday raised its estimate of the country's 2011/12 soybean crop to 66.2 million tonnes, up slightly from 65.9 million forecast in April.
CBOT soyoil ended higher as meal/oil spreads unwound.

Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly higher, driven by rising exports and stronger global markets, although gains were limited by jitters ahead of the Greek election this weekend.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed slightly higher on Friday, driven by rising exports and stronger global markets, although gains were limited by jitters ahead of the Greek polls set for this weekend.

Investors took comfort in the news that major central banks were preparing to take steps to stabilise financial markets, providing support for palm oil prices.
A jump in Malaysian palm oil exports for June 1-15 also suggested that demand remained resilient, but palm oil chalked up a weekly loss of 4.2 percent as the global economic uncertainty outweighed supportive fundamentals.

The market's a bit higher today, but it didn't go up by much. Traders are staying on the sidelines waiting for this weekend to see how the Greece election is going to turn out," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained just 0.1 percent to close at 2,848 ringgit ($902) per tonne. Prices earlier touched 2,839 ringgit, a level unseen since Oct. 20, 2011.

Traded volumes stood at 24,632 lots of 25 tonnes each, a tad lower than the usual 25,000 lots, on investor caution.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, June 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Friday, posting gains on the week, as a rebound in global oil prices boosted energy shares.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ended the day 1.3 percent higher, reversing two straight days of lossses, as investors regained some confidence from plans by major central banks to limit potential fallout following this Sunday's Greek elections.

For the week, the Straits Times Index rose 2.7 percent, after five weeks of losses.
Thailand's key SET index <.SETI> climbed 1.1 percent as market investors bought recently beaten down large caps, including refiners.

The SET index gained 3.4 percent on the week, making it Southeast Asia's best performer.

Friday, June 15, 2012

RTRS- India's refined palm oil imports surge in May

NEW DELHI, June 14 (Reuters) - India's refined palm oil imports surged 70 percent in May as worries about a hike in duties receded, prices fell and demand picked up ahead of the Ramadan festival in July, a top trade body said on Thursday.

India is the world's No. 1 importer of vegetable oils, covering about half its annual demand of 15 million to 16 million tonnes through imports. Much of its palm oil comes from Indonesia, which is promoting a move to refined oil to support its refiners.

India's imports of refined palm oil surged to 165,426 tonnes in May from 97,547 tonnes in April, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said, higher than average expectations in a Reuters poll but within forecast ranges. [ID:nL3E8HA05C]

India's refined oil imports have been on a generally rising trend since October 2011, when Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, altered taxes to make its refined palm oil more attractive than the crude variety.

"The current duty structure favours more exports of refined oil from Indonesia than crude oil," B. V. Mehta, executive director of SEA, told Reuters.

Indian refiners' calls on the government for retaliatory action, after the Indonesian move reined in domestic refining and put many plants in India on the verge of closure, have so far proved fruitless because food inflation is high. [ID:nL4E8E51LY]

Expectations the government would hike import taxes in its March budget or soon after deterred buyers of imported refined palm oil in March and April.

In the first seven months of the current year from November, India's refined palm oil imports rose to 1.1 million tonnes, a jump of 98 percent from the year-ago period.

Mehta said refined palm oil imports would continue to be higher than the average 2011 monthly levels of 90,000-100,000 tonnes if the government does not restrict purchases by raising the import duty.

Cheaper prices also encouraged buying in May, with imported refined palm oil $106 per tonne cheaper than in April, the trade data showed.

Total vegetable oil imports in May fell 3.1 percent to 896,921 tonnes due to a decline in the purchase of soft oils such as soyoil and sunflower oils after stocks were built up in April.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, June 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Thursday after news major central banks are preparing coordinated action if the results of Greek elections this weekend generate turmoil in financial markets.

Based on the latest available data, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was up 156.51 points, or 1.25 percent, at 12,652.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 14.27 points, or 1.09 percent, at 1,329.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 17.72 points, or 0.63 percent, at 2,836.33.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, June 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Thursday as OPEC agreed to keep its current production ceiling steady and oil moved even higher in post-settlement trading on news that central banks are preparing to respond to any turmoil resulting from Greece's upcoming election.

OPEC left oil output limits on hold, hoping that top producer Saudi Arabia scales back its production after its recent unilateral increase in output. [ID:nL5E8HE6GW]

Several members in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries called on Saudi to cut back to bring collective supply down to the 30 million barrels per day (bpd) limit. Extra Saudi production is largely responsible for lifting actual OPEC output to 31.6 million bpd.

Oil prices extended gains in post-settlement trading on news that central banks from major economies are ready to take steps to stabilize financial markets by providing liquidity and preventing a credit squeeze if the outcome of Greek elections on Sunday causes tumultuous trading. [ID:nL1E8HEEK]

The news also sent U.S. stocks and the euro higher.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude rose $1.29, or 1.56 percent, to settle at $83.91 a barrel, trading as low as $82.27 and reaching $84.42 in post-settlement trading.

* India is seeking extra oil supplies from OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Algeria.[ID:nL3E8HE6DF]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a second day on corn/soybean spreading and long liquidation tied to economic uncertainty, especially in top soy buyer China, traders said.

* Traders hold a near-record-large long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market vulnerable to bouts of long liquidation.

* Open interest in spot July soybeans was above 176,000 contracts with just over two weeks left before first notice day for deliveries on June 29.

* Soyoil posted the biggest losses in the soy complex, pressured by macroeconomic worries that also dragged down European and Asian vegoil markets. Malaysian palm oil futures slumped to their lowest level of 2012. [ID:nL3E8HE2UA]

* Market expecting updated acreage figures Friday from Informa Economics. Informa in May forecast U.S. soybean seedings at 75.8 million acres, nearly 2 million more than USDA'S March planting intentions figure.

* The market fell despite larger-than-expected weekly soy export sales. USDA reported sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.005 million tonnes, above trade estimates for 500,000 to 750,000 tonnes.

* USDA reported weekly U.S. soymeal sales at 141,400 tonnes, near the high end of expectations for 75,000 to 150,000 tonnes. USDA pegged weekly soyoil sales at 7,300 tonnes, within a range of trade estimates for 5,000 to 15,000 tonnes.

* Market also bucked bullish monthly soy crushing data. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported the U.S. soybean crush for May at 138.266 million bushels, up from 131.708 million in April and above the average trade estimate of 135.1 million.

* NOPA showed U.S. May soyoil stocks at 2.312 billion lbs, down from 2.385 billion in April and in line with trade expectations.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, June 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slumped to their lowest in 2012 on Thursday as the euro zone debt crisis and sluggish U.S. growth triggered a flight of capital from riskier assets.

Investors were waiting for fresh trading cues from the results of an Italian debt auction and U.S. jobs data later in the day, as well as Greek polls this weekend that could precipitate the country's exit from the bloc. Uncertainty about the global economy pushed Asian shares down on Thursday. [MKTS/GLOB]
"On the weekend ahead we are going to see the Greek election and market participants are staying away from the market for the time being," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"Fundamentals remain quite encouraging, we have a higher demand and lower stocks. But fundamentals are not taking the front seat as macroeconomic factors are still dominating at the moment."

Benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 3.5 percent to close at 2,846 ringgit ($893) per tonne, the lowest level this year. Futures have lost more than 10 percent this year.

Prices also dropped below the 2,900-ringgit mark for the first time this year. The market hit a low of 2,838 ringgit earlier in the session, a level unseen since Oct. 20, 2011.

Traded volumes were high, at 37,755 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots, as investors rushed to liquidate their positions.

Fundamentals were supportive, with Malaysian palm oil stocks hitting a 13-month low in May, a sign that strong demand was eating into stocks. [ID:nK7E8EU00L]

Malaysian palm oil exports were lacklustre for June 1-10, but traders expect shipments to pick up as India and Pakistan restock ahead of the Muslim fasting month starting in mid-July.

Cargo surveyors will report export numbers for the first half of the month on Friday. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

Lower soybean ending stocks reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday also suggested tighter supply and could provide support for palm oil prices.

REGIONA EQUITY- BANGKOK, June 14 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets fell along with other world markets on Thursday, led by losses in commodity-linked shares that came under selling pressure amid global price weakness.

News that Spain's 10-year bond yields hit a euro-era record of 7 percent on Wednesday kept investors cautious about the debt situation in Europe, brokers in the region said.

Among underperformers, Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> fell 1.8 percent to 3,791.62, its lowest close since June 6, and the Philippine index <.PSI> ended down 1.7 percent, reversing two sessions of gains.

Indonesia's biggest coal miner Bumi Resources Tbk plunged 8.9 percent, and Philippine Aboitiz Power Corp shed 3.1 percent.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended lower on Wednesday as fears ahead of the weekend elections in Greece finally drove down a market that had been treading water through most of the day. 

Up to 800 million euros ($1 billion) have been pulled out of Greek banks daily ahead of the cliffhanger election on Sunday, which many fear will result in Greece leaving the euro zone. If that happens, investors fear other peripheral nations may also have to exit.  

The euro zone's cloudy future has made investors inclined to quickly reverse positions. On Wednesday, they pounded shares in financial, energy and materials sectors into the close.  

Volume surged after three weak sessions. About 7.1 billion share trade on the NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq, slightly above the 20-day moving average. 

There's a "lack of details or specifics coming out of Europe, and that creates more of a vicious cycle," said Larry Peruzzi, senior equity trader at Cabrera Capital Markets Inc in Boston. "The euro has been a concern every single day." 

Also weighing on sentiment, the government reported U.S. retail sales fell in May to their worst level in two years, the latest data to point to sluggish U.S. growth after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report in May sparked widespread fears of a slowdown. The S&P Retail Index <.RLX> lost 1.5 percent. 

There was a defensive tilt to trading for much of the day as gains in sectors such as healthcare and telecoms managed for a time to offset declines in cyclical areas. Shares in telecom provider AT&T hit a 52-week high at $35.06, before closing unchanged at $34.98. The telecom sector <.GSPL> ticked up 0.1 percent. 

Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co were a standout, rising 1.6 percent as the bank's chief executive, Jamie Dimon, defended the portfolio behind JPMorgan's recent multibillion-dollar trading loss, telling lawmakers it was a genuine hedge that would make the firm a lot of money if a credit crisis hit. 

In the overall market, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 77.42 points, or 0.62 percent, at 12,496.38. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 9.30 points, or 0.70 percent, at 1,314.88. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 24.46 points, or 0.86 percent, at 2,818.61.  

The S&P 500 had moved more than 1 percent in opposite directions on the previous two trading days, which were largely dictated by the events in the euro zone. 

On Tuesday the index bounced after falling toward the 1,300 level, a psychological milestone that some traders are using to trade against as index levels assume more importance given the lack of a clear outlook.  

Investors have pushed Spain's 10-year borrowing costs to their highest level since the launch of the euro in 1999, adding to uncertainty over the plan to bail out the country's struggling banks. 
    
An influential government adviser in China was quoted as saying the country's economic growth could fall below 7 percent in the second quarter if weak activity persists in June. 

Investors have been looking to China's relatively robust expansion to pick up the slack from Europe, especially demand for commodities. 

NYMEX - NEWYORK, June 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Wednesday ahead of an OPEC policy meeting expected to leave the group's production target unchanged, while weak economic data added to the bearish sentiment. 

Saudi Arabia came under pressure from fellow OPEC producers to cut oil output to prevent a further slide in crude prices a day ahead of the group's Thursday policy meeting in Vienna.

After Saudi Arabia initially floated a proposal to lift OPEC's output target, Riyadh quickly dropped the idea and the 12-member producer group looks set to leave its production ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day.     

U.S. data showed retail sales fell for a second straight month in May and wholesale prices dropped the most in three years. The reports were expected to boost chances of further action by the Federal Reserve to shore up the flagging recovery.


U.S. crude inventories fell 191,000 barrels to 384.44 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a weekly report, a smaller drop than expected.
  
Gasoline stocks fell 1.72 million barrels and distillate stocks fell 63,000 barrels, the EIA said. 

Crude stocks were expected to be down 1.4 million barrels, a Reuters survey of analysts showed. Gasoline stocks were expected to be up 1.1 million barrels and distillate stocks up 1.3 million barrels.  

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell nearly 2 percent by the end of pit trading on long liquidation tied to improving U.S. weather forecasts and on concerns about the global economy, traders said. 

* Front-month July soybeans fell to the lowest level in a week, and soymeal lost ground to soyoil as meal/oil spreads unwound. 

* Slower-than-expected economic expansion in China, the world's largest importer of soybeans, lent further pressure to the soy market. 

* Weather patterns have shifted to a wetter scenario, though they are still short of perfect. Light rain is expected late this week in northwest portions of the U.S. Midwest but dry weather is likely elsewhere, agricultural meteorologists said. 

* Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly U.S. soybean crush report on Thursday to show the May crush at 135.1 million bushels, up from NOPA's April figure of 131.708 million.

* CBOT reported the number of soybean contracts registered for delivery fell by two contracts late Tuesday, leaving a total of eight contracts registered. Soybean registrations have fallen from more than 600 contracts in late May, a reflection of firming cash markets.  

FCPO SINGAPORE, June 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Wednesday, as concerns that the euro zone debt crisis could slow growth offset demand chasing tighter stocks. 

Uncertainty over Europe's debt crisis comes as investors focus on the Greek elections on June 17 that could lead to the nation's exit from the currency bloc. 

But analysts remained upbeat on lower stocks in No.2 producer Malaysian and crude palm oil's discount of above $160 per tonne to competing soybean oil, a tad higher than a 5-year average level of $158 per tonne. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture made a slight downward revision in its outlook for soybean ending stocks for both old- and new-crop marketing years, providing support for palm oil prices. 

"In addition, supply shortage due to the tree stress effect (in Malaysia) and monetary easing policy from China should continue to support crude palm oil prices," Alan Lim, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in reference to weak production growth.      

Benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.5 percent to close at 2,950 ringgit ($930) per tonne. 

Traded volumes picked up from just 4,331 lots before the midday break to 18,627 lots of 25 tonnes each, but still lower than the usual 25,000 lots. 

Local fundamentals were strong with Malaysian palm oil stocks hitting a 13-month low in May, signalling strong demand was eating into stocks.

Although cargo surveyors have reported lacklustre exports for June 1-10, traders expect shipments to pick up in the later in the month as India and Pakistan do last minute buying ahead of the Muslim fasting month starting in mid-July.      

Brent crude oil held firm on Wednesday, with investors awaiting the outcome of the meeting this week of the producer group OPEC, while gains were capped by worries about Europe's debt crisis and prospects for oil demand.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July  delivery gained 0.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most active Jan 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian commodity exchange closed 0.2 percent lower.  



Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks took their cues from Europe's troubled debt markets on Tuesday, staging a comeback rally to end up more than 1 percent as Spanish bond yields came off euro-era record highs. 

Trading has been choppy this week as investors struggle for clarity over whether the $125 billion bailout for Spanish banks agreed over the weekend will be effective and have turned to bond yields as a thermometer for risk aversion. 

Economically sensitive sectors that had sold off recently were the strongest performers, suggesting investors saw value in beaten down shares, while traders looked for an oversold bounce as the S&P 500 slipped back toward 1,300. 

"We are just being held hostage by all the news flow," said Frank Lesh, a futures analyst and broker at FuturePath Trading LLC in Chicago. "I don't think anyone has a handle on this." 

"Right now everyone has got a pretty short-term trading mentality," he said. "You have to be ready to abandon your thoughts and change your mind at a moment's notice."    

Economically sensitive shares that rise and fall as fears ebb and flow were the biggest gainers. Materials, financial and industrial shares were up over 1.5 percent. 

Boeing Co led the Dow, climbing 3.5 percent, helped by an upgrade by Sanford C. Bernstein, which said it saw a better outlook for the company's new Dreamliner plane. 

For the week so far, the S&P is close to flat, reflecting the uncertainty in the market. 

For the day the Dow Jones industrial average gained 162.57 points, or 1.31 percent, to 12,573.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 15.25 points, or 1.17 percent, to 1,324.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 33.34 points,or 1.19 percent, to 2,843.07. 

NYMEX - NEWYORK, June 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures traded little changed in positive territory on Tuesday after industry data showed domestic oil inventories rose last week, against forecasts that they fell. 

Earlier, crude futures settled up for the first time in four sessions, rebounding from an eight-month low as traders geared for the release of weekly industry and government petroleum inventory reports. 

Bargain-hunting helped lift prices, but volume was slightly below the 30-day average as oil markets awaited an OPEC policy meeting on Thursday in Vienna. 

The American Petroleum Institute said that for the week to June 8, domestic crude stocks rose by 1.6 million barrels due to higher imports, against the forecast for a 1.4-million-barrel decline in a Reuters poll of analysts.

Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point fell by 344,000 barrels.  

Gasoline stocks fell by 878,000 barrels against the forecast for a 1.1-million-barrel increase while distillate stocks rose by 519,000 barrels, far less than the forecast for a 1.3-million-barrel build.  

Refinery utilization rose 0.7 percentage point, to 88.7 percent of capacity. The forecast was for a decline by 0.1 percentage point. 

CBOT SOYBEAN - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were up 0.8 percent at the end of pit trade after the U.S. Department of Agriculture cut its forecast of U.S. soy inventories, traders said. 

* Nearby July soy posted its biggest gain after USDA slashed its forecast of the 2011/12 old-crop U.S. soybean carryout to 175 million bushels, down 35 million from the May estimate and below the average trade expectation of 189 million.

* USDA also lowered its forecast of 2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks by 5 million bushels to 140 million, slightly below the average trade estimate of 143 million. 

* Nearby soybeans hit an intraday high of $14.49-1/4 per bushel, the highest spot soybean price since the May 17 peak of $14.50. 

* Contract highs set in soymeal, including the spot July and December contracts. Nearby soymeal reached $439.90 per ton, the highest spot soymeal price in nearly four years. 

* Gains in deferred soybeans limited by spillover weakness from corn and improved weather forecasts for the U.S. Midwest, with more rainfall expected over the next two weeks than previously predicted. 

* Argentine farmers planned to end a week-long sales strike on Tuesday night. The freeze was called last week by growers angry about profit-cutting agricultural policies and a recent tax hike in Buenos Aires province.

* Soybean prices seen remaining firm for the rest of 2012 because of high U.S. exports, but could be pressured by larger South American crops in 2013 - oilseeds analysts Oil World.

* Global soymeal output and demand is likely to rise in 2012/2013, stimulating a 2 million tonne increase in global soymeal exports - Oil World.

FCPO SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Tuesday, as renewed fears over the euro zone debt crisis weighed on investor sentiment and the broader financial markets, although losses were limited by lower palm oil stocks. 

Palm oil, along with other commodities such as crude oil and soybean oil, gained on Monday on news that euro zone finance ministers approved a $125 billion rescue package for struggling Spanish banks. 

But investors feared that the bailout would not be sufficient to solve the crisis and the focus has now shifted to the Greek elections on June 17 that could lead to the nation's exit from the currency bloc. 

"A key factor contributing to the price downtrend is the renewed euro zone debt crisis and uncertain global economic outlook, which have dampened sentiments as well as raising the prospect of lower demand for commodities, including vegetable oils," said Malaysia's Affin Investment Bank in a research note. 

Benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.8 percent to close at 2,965 ringgit ($933) per tonne. 

Traded volumes stood at 26,461 lots of 25 tonnes each, just slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots. 

Malaysian palm oil stocks were at a 13-month low in May, and that has helped cut some losses. 

Malaysian palm oil exports for the first 10 days of June fell 6.6 percent, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, going against market expectations of a stronger demand ahead of the Muslim fasting month starting in mid-July. 

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a slight 1.8 percent increase for exports for the same period.
   
Traders are eyeing a supply-demand report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) due later in the day that could show tighter soybean supply and lend support to palm oil. 

Industry players are also watching for any volatility in price movement as this is the first time that the report will be released during active Chicago futures trading hours.

On the technicals front, palm oil is biased to fall below 2,925 ringgit per tonne, as the rebound from its June 4 low has completed, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Crude oil futures fell below $98 a barrel on Tuesday, extending losses due to fears that the euro zone debt crisis will worsen and hurt the global economy, threatening growth in oil demand. 

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for July delivery gained 0.3 percent in late Asian trade while the most active Jan 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian commodity exchange closed 0.3 percent lower.     

REGIONAL EQUITY, BANGKOK - June 12 (Reuters) - Stocks in Singapore and Thailand closed higher on Tuesday while other Southeast Asian stocks drifted lower as players remained cautious of a possible Greek exit from the euro zone and doubts over the Spanish bank bailout plan. 

Singapore's Straits Times Index ended up 0.3 percent at 2,797.08, with commodities firm Olam International Ltd rising 2 percent after a share buyback plan which signals management confidence in the company's outlook. 

The Thai SET index edged up 0.4 percent at 1,162.93 amid late bargain hunting which helped send shares in PTT Pcl 1.6 percent higher. 

Stocks in Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam fell 0.15 percent, 0.35 percent and 1 percent, respectively. The Philippines market was shut on Tuesday and will reopen on Wednesday.  

     

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, June 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday as Europe's aid package for Spanish banks did little to alleviate investor concerns about the euro zone's finances and a slowdown in the wider global economy. 

The equity market bounced in early trading, but the rally was quickly snuffed out by sellers and a sharp decline accelerated into the market's close. 

Spanish bond yields rose as a bailout of up to $125 billion  for the country's struggling banks failed to quell concerns that Madrid may be locked out of funding markets and forced to seek external help. 

"They're borrowing more money, not doing anything about growth," Paul Zemsky, head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management in New York, said. "Today we're not worried about Spain's banking system falling off a cliff, but other than that, nothing has changed." 

The New York-traded stock of Spanish lender Banco Santander fell 3.1 percent to $5.92. Weakness in Europe's financial sector was mirrored in the United States where the S&P financial index fell 1.9 percent and was the weakest performing sector. 
   
Shares of Morgan Stanley , which has recently been a barometer of concerns about Europe due to perceptions of the investment bank's exposure to the region, fell 2.5 percent to $13.37.    

Spain's 10-year bond yieldsended higher at 6.5 percent as an early rally in prices quickly evaporated. Some investors were concerned the new debt would put existing bondholders lower in the capital structure, which increases the risk for those holders. 

"This is a realization that Spain, while providing money for its banks, is going to add to its debt-to-GDP ratio, and it's going to potentially subordinate some of the current Spanish sovereign debt, which doesn't make those bondholders happy," said Zemsky. 

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 142.97 points, or 1.14 percent, to 12,411.23. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 16.73 points, or 1.26 percent, to 1,308.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 48.69 points, or 1.70 percent, to 2,809.73.  

Investors fear a crisis in Spain would compound the currency bloc's troubles as June 17 elections loom in Greece, which many think could lead to Greece's exit from the euro zone. 

The worries come at a time when economies the world over are showing signs of slowing. China's inflation, industrial output and retail sales all flagged in May. It was the second straight month of sluggish growth. 

Trading volume was light on the NYSE, Nasdaq and AMEX with 6 billion shares traded, about 14 percent below its 10-day moving average. About four shares fell for every one that rose on NYSE.
 
U.S. companies are finding it more difficult to increase  revenue now than at just about any time since the financial crisis. Firms that make up the S&P 500 are expected to boost sales by just 2.2 percent in the current quarter, according to Thomson Reuters data.

AK Steel Holding Corp tumbled 14 percent to $4.99 after two brokerages cut their ratings on the small cap, including a "sell" rating from Goldman Sachs, which cited a highly leveraged balance sheet and weak steel prices. 

U.S. steelmakers are struggling with weak demand, rising costs and narrowing margins. Production capacity has yet to fully recover from the most recent recession. 

NYMEX - NEWYORK,  June 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures were lower for a third straight session on Monday, and set a new 2012 low in late trading, as an early rally on EU's rescue of Spanish banks faded amid investors raising questions about the aid package and focused on other troubled euro zone nations like Greece.   

Leading oil producer Saudi Arabia called for an increase in OPEC's output target, despite falling oil prices, further adding to bearish sentiment in the oil markets.  

The euro fell against the U.S. dollar and equities ended lower on disappointment over the Spanish aid package, to keep oil futures under pressure. 

Also bearish for crude was news that an outage at a new crude distillation unit at Motiva Enterprises' 600,000 barrels per day refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, -- the nation's largest -- would be offline for at least two months and potentially five months, for repairs, sources familiar with operations said.

Ahead of weekly inventory reports, U.S. crude oil inventories were forecast down 1.5 million barrels last week with analysts citing lower imports in a Reuters poll. 

Distillate stocks were predicted up 1.0 million barrels while gasoline stocks were expected to show a 1.5-million-barrel increase, the poll also showed. 

The American Petroleum Institute will issue its report for the week to Jan. 8 on Tuesday, after the oil markets close. 

That will be followed by the report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due Wednesday morning.

CBOT SOYBEAN - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade were lower at the close of pit trading, pressured by declines in U.S. equities and crude oil after traders digested potential fallout from a euro zone deal to shore up Spain's banks. 

* Yet nearby soybean contracts gained against deferreds on spreads, one day ahead of a monthly government crop report that analysts expected to show smaller U.S. old-crop soy inventories. 

* Nearby July soybeans traded on both sides of unchanged in the final minute before the close of pit trade at 1:15 p.m. CDT (1815 GMT). 

* Analysts expect USDA's monthly supply/demand report on Tuesday to show a smaller forecast of U.S. 2011/12 soybean ending stocks while leaving 2012/13 U.S. soy ending stocks roughly unchanged. 

* CBOT was set to open pit trading at 7:20 a.m. (1220 GMT) on Tuesday, more than two hours earlier than normal, so both the pits and the electronic trading platform will be open when USDA releases its monthly supply/demand report.     
   
* Nearby soybean contracts underpinned by fears of supply disruptions out of South America. Grain trucks entering Argentina's main port of Rosario slowed to a trickle due to a five-day-old sales strike by farmers, but exports were uninterrupted because of dockside reserves.

* USDA's weekly crop progress report later Monday was expected to show the U.S. soybean crop rated 63 percent good to excellent, down 2 percentage points from the previous week, according to a Reuters survey of 12 analysts.

* The U.S. corn and soybean crops are likely to face stress from overall dry conditions for at least the next two weeks, trimming production potential, an agricultural meteorologist said Monday.

* USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 14.215 million bushels, within a range of trade estimates for 13 million to 16 million.   

FCPO SINGAPORE, June 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil rose on Monday on a bigger-than-expected stock draw although gains were curbed by concerns the euro zone debt crisis was far from resolved even after the bloc agreed on a rescue package for Spain's struggling banks. 

The $125-billion bailout calmed some of the fears seen last week that triggered a global sell-off in the financial markets and dragged palm oil to its lowest in the year. 

But investors are now focusing to Greek national polls on June 17 that could put Athens on a path out of the bloc and trigger a deeper crisis over the future of the currency bloc. 

For now, Malaysian palm oil stocks at a 13-month low in May have been holding up the market although some traders said the 4.5 percent drop from a month ago was already priced in. 

Traders are also eyeing a supply-demand report on U.S. and global grains from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) due Tuesday that could show tighter supply and lend support to palm oil. 

"There was a sense that the Malaysian stocks numbers are bullish but the euro zone debt crisis clouds over everything," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur. 

Benchmark August palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.5 percent to close at 2,989 ringgit ($944) per tonne after going as high as 3,028 ringgit. 

Traded volumes stood at 32,538 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots. 

On the technicals front, palm oil faces resistance at 3,038 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Malaysian palm oil exports for the first 10 days of June fell 6.6 percent, said cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, going against traders' expectations of a stronger demand ahead of the Muslim fasting month starting in mid-July.

"This is quite a surprise. But we still expect real demand to come in the later part in June," said a dealer based in Malaysia. 

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a slight 1.8 percent increase for exports in the same period.

REGIONAL EQUITY - BANGKOK, June 11 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly higher on Monday as a bailout for Spanish banks improved sentiment, with Thai stocks leading the way amid a flurry of short covering in large cap shares. 

Thailand's benchmark SET index <.SETI> posted its biggest daily gain in eight months, finishing up 2.8 percent at 1,158.07, led by PTT Pcl , the country's top energy firm and its biggest listed firm by market value. It rose 3.7 percent. 

"There's a strong buying position for short covering today. Foreign investors were quite active and I think the market seems set for a good rebound from this point," said Viwat Techapoonphol, senior strategist at broker Tisco Securities 

Stocks in Singapore <.FTSTI>, Malaysia <.KLSE>, Indonesia <.JKSE> and the Philippines <.PSI> gained 1.8 percent, 0.5 percent, 1.1 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively. 

The Philippine market will be shut for a holiday on Tuesday and will reopen on Wednesday.