Thursday, November 29, 2012

Trader's highlight


DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday after comments from House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, on a possible compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" turned the market around.

The S&P 500 rebounded from a 1 percent decline, gaining more than 20 points from its low after Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said he was optimistic that a budget deal to avoid big spending cuts and tax hikes can be worked out. President Barack Obama added to the good feelings, saying he hoped to get a deal done in the next four weeks.

"The fiscal cliff is dominating the discussion, and short term, we’re a little bit too optimistic on it being fixed right away," said John Manley, chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in New York.

The market has been swinging for weeks now on headlines from Washington, with Wednesday's gyrations once again highlighting the importance that Wall Street is giving to finding a solution to avoid the series of tax increases and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy into recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 106.98 points, or 0.83 percent, to 12,985.11 at the close. The S&P 500 gained 10.99 points, or 0.79 percent, to 1,409.93. The Nasdaq Composite added 23.99 points, or 0.81 percent, to close at 2,991.78.

The S&P 500 bounced off a strong support area near 1,385 that includes both its 200- and 14-day moving averages. It closed above 1,400 for the third session in four - an optimistic sign for stock bulls.

NYMEX Crude Oil- NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell a third straight session on Wednesday as concerns about fuel demand outweighed optimism about a potential deal to resolve the U.S. budget crisis.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.2 percent,stalling a three-day rally as traders booked profits after the spot January contract reached a 2-1/2 week high.

* USDA confirmed sales of 290,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery    in 2012/13. 

·   Concerns about excessive rains delaying soybean planting in Argentina underpinned the market. John Dee, meteorologist for Global Weather Monitoring, said rain was likely Thursday and Friday and again through much of next week.

·      Crop weather in Brazil was mostly satisfactory, but some  southern areas could use more rain, Dee said.

·           Logistical jams and transportation delays anticipated in Brazil early next year will likely slow the flow of a record soybean crop to buyers around the world who are counting on  South America to fill the gap left by drought in the United States.

·          Rabobank said in an annual outlook that it expected CBOT soybean prices to average $14.75 a bushel in the first quarter of calendar year 2013 before sliding almost 12 percent to $13 in the fourth quarter.

·          Cash basis offers for soymeal softened at a few locationsn in the interior U.S. Midwest as recent gains in CBOT futures chilled demand from livestock and poultry producers.

·          Trade expects USDA's weekly export sales report on Thursday to show sales of U.S. soybeans at 500,000 to 750,000 tonnes, soymeal sales at 150,000 to 250,000 and soyoil sales at 100,000 to 200,000 tonnes.

·          January soybeans face technical resistance at their 200-day moving average of $14.59. The contract's nine-day relative strength index stood at 51 after the close, in neutral technical territory.


FCPO - SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures eased on Wednesday, dropping for a second straight session on concerns that U.S. fiscal woes could hamper global economic growth and commodity demand.

Prices touched their highest in almost a week on Tuesday as a Greek debt deal provided brief comfort for investors, but lack of progress in U.S. budget talks and speculation that Malaysian palm oil inventories could hit a record high this month kept prices in a tight range.

"The market looks like it's expected to just stay rangebound this week," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities trading house. "But for the longer term, sentiment has improved, compared to a month ago."

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.7 percent to close at 2,394 ringgit ($784) per tonne. Prices traded in a range of 2,383 to 2,417 ringgit. Total traded volumes stood at 31,818 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

The European Commission has made public a decision taken last week to allow palm oil producers under the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil scheme to qualify for biofuel subsidies, a move that could spur more European demand for the tropical oil.

The most-active May 2013 soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.4 percent lower.

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Philippine index closed at a record high on Wednesday amid good buying interest in large caps, following stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP growth, while Indonesia fell for a second session as market players cashed in on recent gainers.

In Manila, the index rose 0.9 percent to 5,633.72, scaling a record for the fourth session. The Philippine economy grew a faster-than-expected 7.1 percent in the September quarter, reflecting strong domestic demand and government spending.

"The Philippines is having a fantastic year despite strong global headwinds. Most nations in Asia saw a tough third quarter while the Philippines had the fastest GDP expansion since 2010," HSBC said in a report.

"This is largely due to the fact that policy makers took timely measures to counterbalance an anticipated slowdown of demand from China and the Eurozone as well as the resilient nature of the services-oriented economy," it said

In a choppy session, Jakarta's Composite Index ended down 0.8 percent at its lowest close in more than three weeks, led by a 5 percent fall in PT Astra International Tbk 

 

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

RTRS - EU Commission backs controversial sustainable palm oil scheme


BRUSSELS, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The European Commission has approved a scheme that would certify as sustainable transport fuel made from palm oil, condemned by environmental groups as one of the most damaging sources of biodiesel.

The Commission made public on Tuesday a decision taken last week to endorse the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil scheme, which means the palm oil producers it licenses can qualify for subsidies.

"Palm oil is driving deforestation, wildlife loss, community conflicts, and accelerating climate change. Instead of greenwashing palm oil, the EU should outright ban its use as a biofuel," said Robbie Blake, biofuels campaigner at Friends of the Earth Europe.

Concern that some biofuels create more problems than they solve led to a major policy shift in September when the EU executive announced a proposal to limit how much biodiesel and bioethanol could be made from food crops.

Last month, it announced new rules to encourage a shift away from first-generation biofuels, blamed for stoking food price inflation, forcing forest clearance and draining of peat land. The aim is to move towards a second generation of fuels made from waste or algae, for instance.

The Commission's own research has shown palm oil has the highest emissions of any biofuel when so-called ILUC factors - the indirect land use change caused by using it for fuel - are considered.

"Emissions from peat conversion have a larger impact on the overall emissions attributed to oil crops, particularly for palm oil, than for bioethanol crops," a Commission document released in October said.

The roundtable is an association of hundreds of palm oil growers, processors, traders and distributors, as well as some non-governmental organisations working in palm-oil producing nations, such as Indonesia and Malaysia.

Commission spokeswoman Marlene Holzner said the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil scheme had been judged "suitable."

She added that the EU's Renewable Energy Directive already prohibits the destruction of forests to grow palm oil or other biofuel crops.

RTRS - Soybeans undervalued, not reflecting high crop risk- Oil World


HAMBURG, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Soybean prices are too low and do not reflect the possible risk to tight global supplies if the critical South American soybean harvest in early 2013 suffers weather damage, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“In our opinion the prices of soybeans and other oilseeds are currently undervalued considering the production risks in South America and the unusually small world stocks available at the beginning of 2013,” Oil World said.

“Soybean stocks will be depleted to a multi-year low of 49 million tonnes at the beginning of 2013 when the South American crop starts moving. They are down 21 million tonnes from a year ago and leave hardly any cushion for crop damage.”

Soybean prices hit record highs in September as drought ravaged the U.S. crop, but fell back to pre-drought levels in mid-November as the U.S. harvest turned out larger than expected and looming big South American crops may relieve world supplies in early 2013. 

Unfavourable sowing weather in key exporters Argentina and Brazil led Oil World to cut its forecasts of 2013 soybean harvests in both countries but a large increase is still expected on the year. (Full Story)
Low stocks and short U.S, supplies will mean the world will urgently need big South American soybean exports in early 2013, it said.

“At the moment the market is optimistic in its estimates of soybean yields and production in South America,” Oil World said. “But the biggest problems are to be seen in the possibly too low pace of soybean disposals caused by the bottlenecks in the domestic transport and export facilities in Brazil and Argentina.”

As the United States is forecast to export over 80 percent of its available soybean export supplies by February 2013 and with soybean stocks sharply reduced, the monthly volumes to be shipped out of South America will have to be record volumes from March 2013, it said.

Brazil’s soybean stocks on Jan. 1, 2013, as its new harvest starts will have fallen to 1.0 million tonnes from 5.4 million tonnes in January 2012, Oil World estimates.

Argentina’s soybean stocks on Mar. 1, 2013, as its later harvest approaches will fall 2.3 million tonnes from 3.6 million tonnes a year previously, it forecast.

RTRS - Argentine soy prices get boost from CBOT gains


BUENOS AIRES, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Argentina's closing soy prices and trends on Tuesday:
  • Soy prices in the main grains port of Rosario rose to between 1,910 pesos and 1,950 pesos ($396/$404) per tonne, mirroring gains in the benchmark Chicago futures market, traders said. Trade was scant because supplies are low.
  • Prices closed at 1,900 pesos per tonne in the previous session.
  • Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose 1.7 percent on Tuesday, their biggest daily gain in a month, on technical buying and fears that South American production might fall short of initial expectations, traders said.
  • Rains that swept through Argentina last week replenished moisture levels for young corn and soy plants in the main crop belt, but other areas remain under water despite some drier weather, a meteorologist said on Tuesday.
  • In Rosario, soy for delivery in May 2013, which is quoted in U.S. dollars, closed up $5 to end at $315 per tonne.
  • In the port of Quequen, soy traded at 1,700 pesos per tonne.

Trader's highlight


DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slid on Tuesday in a choppy session, losing ground in the last hour before the close after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid expressed disappointment that there has been "little progress" in dealing with the "fiscal cliff."

The market was flat for most of the session but fell sharply after Reid's comments, a signal that investors remain skittish about the wrangling in Washington. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, rose on Reid's words. 

Higher dividend and capital gains taxes are part of the negotiations in Washington and may rise even if a deal is crafted.

The S&P 500's modest losses on Tuesday marked its worst day in eight sessions - indicating traders are unwilling to sell aggressively as a deal probably would trigger a rally. The benchmark S&P 500 once again closed below 1,400, a key psychological level that it had reclaimed last week as it rose nearly 4 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 89.24 points, or 0.69 percent, to 12,878.13 at the close. The S&P 500 dropped 7.35 points, or 0.52 percent, to finish at 1,398.94. The Nasdaq Composite lost 8.99 points, or 0.30 percent, to end at 2,967.79.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell 56 cents to $87.18 a barrel on Tuesday on concerns about the progress of key U.S. budget talks.

CBOT Soybean - Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose 1.7 percent, their biggest daily gain in a month, on technical buying and fears that South American production might fall short of initial expectations, traders said.

·     Strength in soyoil lends support. Most-active CBOT January soyoil hit a three-week high on recent export demand for  U.S. soyoil and short-covering by funds, who hold a massive netshort position in the commodity.

·    Some traders cited support from talk that China might step  up soybean purchases in the coming weeks.  

·     Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were steady to higher, supported by good demand from  exporters and concerns that low water on the Mississippi River  would restrict shipping in the coming weeks, traders said.

·    Market lifted by concerns about threats to South American soy prospects. Excessive rain in Argentina is delaying planting of corn and soybeans, and although crop weather in Brazil is mostly satisfactory, traders are monitoring pockets of dryness in the south.    

·      Soybean prices are too low and do not reflect the possible  risk to tight global supplies if the critical South American soybean harvest in early 2013 suffers weather damage - oilseeds analysts Oil World.

·      South Korea's Major Feedmill Group bought 110,000 tonnes  of soymeal likely to be sourced from South America in a tender for up to 165,000 tonnes, European traders said.


FCPO - SINGAPORE, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged down on Tuesday, as traders booked profits from a near one-week high after Greece's international lenders agreed on a financial aid deal that boosted market optimism.

On the domestic front, investors are watching Malaysian palm oil output to gauge whether stocks will reach another record high, especially after the latest cargo surveyor data pointed to weaker export demand.

"Demand is tepid, with rumours that India may import on domestic shortfall. Speculators are also seen pushing up futures amid optimism that output in the fourth quarter will avert the looming 'supply cliff'," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.9 percent to close at 2,410 ringgit ($792) per tonne, but off the day's high of 2,458 ringgit, a level last seen on Nov. 21.

Total traded volumes stood at 35,938 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

The market, however, expects weaker palm oil prices to stimulate demand for price-sensitive markets such as India and Pakistan in the next few weeks. 

Palm oil stocks in China could hit one million tonnes by year-end, up from 790,000 tonnes last week, fed by surging imports and stagnant domestic demand, the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre said on its website 

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Philippine shares posted small gains to hit a record close for the third session on Tuesday, while Singapore and Thailand edged slightly higher amid good buying interest in large cap telecoms and banks seen as market laggards.

The Philippine index finished at 5,586.45, topping Monday's all-time closing high of 5,579.42. Singapore's Straits Times Index and Thai SET index both rose to a near three-week high, up 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

Among weak spots, Malaysia fell for a fifth session, ending down 0.6 percent at a five-month low, while Indonesia lost 0.9 percent after Monday's 0.6 percent gain that sent the index to a record finish of 4,375.17.








Tuesday, November 27, 2012

RTRS - Monthly palm oil exports from Indonesia gain 3 pct m/m in Oct


JAKARTA, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Palm oil exports from Indonesia, the world's top producer, rose 3 percent to 1.424 million tonnes in October compared to the previous month, industry data showed on Monday.

This year, palm oil output in the archipelago is expected to be between 23 million and 25 million tonnes, with around 18 million tonnes exported.

Indonesia's top customers for the edible oil include India, China and Europe.

In January-October, exports to India totalled 4.648 million tonnes, China 2.400 million tonnes and the European Union 3.217 million tonnes.

Trader's highlight


DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street slipped on Monday, pulling back from last week's gains, as retailers fell on concerns about heavy discounts at the start of the U.S. holiday shopping season and the overhang of the "fiscal cliff" kept investors wary of making big bets.

The White House threw cold water on a proposal of avoiding the looming "fiscal cliff" of spending cuts and tax highs by limiting tax deductions and loopholes, instead of allowing tax rates to rise for the richest Americans.

In the other major worry for the market, euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund made their third attempt in as many weeks to agree on releasing emergency aid for Greece, with policymakers saying a write-down of Greek debt is off the table for now.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell 54 cents to settle at $87.74 a barrel on Monday, pressured by concerns about Greek debt talks and U.S. budget negotiations.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a second straight session, with front-month January reaching a two-week high on concerns about South American crop weather and fresh sales of U.S. soyoil, traders said.

·         Soybean market pared gains after USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 45.498 million bushels, below trade estimates for 60 million to 64 million.

·         Concern about surplus moisture in crop areas of central Argentina lent support. The region was dry over the weekend but has struggled to dry out after rains last week, and another storm system is expected late on Wednesday into Friday.

·         Rains should return to Brazil's main center-west soy belt this week, local meteorologist Somar said, but dry pockets in the southern states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul will likely leave the No. 2 and No. 3 soybean-producing states drier than normal in November.

·         Soybean planting progress in Brazil rose 10 percentage points to 74 percent of the expected total last week. But planting is still behind the 80 percent sowed by this time last year - analyst Celeres.

·         Forward sales of the Brazilian 2012/13 soybean crop by farmers reached 50 percent last week, up from 49 percent a week earlier and up from the five-year average of 27 percent - Celeres.

·         Worries about likely shipping problems due to low water on the Mississippi River have created a two-tiered cash market for soybeans at the U.S. Gulf, with strong demand for supplies sourced down river from Cairo, Illinois. Buyers were bidding a 5- to 7-cent premium for southern beans.  

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Monday on expectations stocks might grow at a slower pace, with the market also focusing on Greek financial aid deal set to be signed later in the day that may cheer markets.

Cargo surveyor data showed Malaysian exports declined at a much slower pace, easing pressure on stockbuild and supporting palm oil prices that have fallen 23 percent so far this year on roiling financial markets.

"If exports maintain their two percent drop for the full month, it means that although inventory levels are poised to go higher, it may be growing at a slower rate than expected," said Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Alan Lim.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said palm oil exports in Nov. 1-25 fell 1.8 percent to 1,276,792 tonnes from a month ago, showing slight improvement from a 3.3 percent drop in the first twenty days of this month. Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a similar 1.9 percent drop for the same period.

The market expects weaker palm oil prices in October and November to stimulate demand from price-sensitive countries such as India and Pakistan, translating to higher exports in the weeks to come.

Financial markets across the world were generally optimistic about a euro zone finance ministers meeting on Monday which is pushing for international lenders to release emergency aid and stem the region's debt crisis. 

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The Philippine index hit a record close for the second straight session while Indonesian stocks ended at an all-time high on Monday, led by large caps, but trading volume was relatively moderate as investors awaited an aid deal for Greece.

The Philippine index closed at 5,579.42, above its record finish of 5,552.34 on Friday with shares in Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co (PLDT) among those actively traded, were up 0.4 percent.

Jakarta's Composite Index produced a fourth straight gain to closed at 4,375.17. Shares in PT Astra International Tbk a leading motorcycle dealer and a proxy of Indonesia's consumer sector, gained 1.3 percent.

Bucking the trend, Malaysia fell for a fourth session, ending down 0.4 percent at 1,607.88, its lowest close since June 18, with telecoms shares among decliners. The Malaysian bourse said foreign investors sold shares worth 137.5 million ringgit ($44.95 million).

Monday, November 26, 2012

RTRS- Indonesia keeps Dec crude palm oil, cocoa export taxes unchanged

JAKARTA, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will keep its export tax for crude palm oil unchanged at 9 percent for December, and leave its tax on cocoa bean exports unchanged at 5 percent, a trade ministry official said on Monday.

The government will also keep the export tax for RBD palm olein unchanged at 3 percent for December.

RTRS- HSBC China flash PMI at 13-month high as growth quickens

BEIJING, Nov 22 (Reuters) - China's vast manufacturing sector saw expansion accelerate in November for the first time in 13 months, preliminary results from a factory survey showed, a sign that the pace of economic growth has revived after seven consecutive quarters of slowdown.

The China HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 in November, the latest indicator of recovery in the real economy after data showing solid credit growth, firmer exports and rising industrial output in the previous month.

A sub-index measuring output rose to 51.3, also the highest since October 2011.

"This reflects that conditions for smaller firms, especially exporters, are looking up," said Li Wei, a Shanghai-based economist for Standard Chartered. "The consensus in the market is already for a small, gradual improvement."

An uptick in key economic activity indicators in October, following encouraging signs in September, cemented the view of many analysts and investors that a rebound in the world's second largest economy gathered momentum as it entered the fourth quarter, thanks to a raft of pro-growth policies rolled out by the government over recent months.
China is currently shuffling its senior officials after the seven top leaders of the ruling Communist Party were selected at a congress last week. The new appointments should end months of uncertainty in the highest ranks, although economic policy is not expected to change abruptly in the near-term.
Even before the congress, the central bank had moved to ease liquidity by pumping short-term cash into money markets rather than resorting to the interest rate cuts or reduction in banks' required reserve ratios that many investors had expected.



STEADY THROUGH YEAR-END

This month's PMI reading above 50 is likely to be seen as a turning point by the market, particularly if it is born out by the final reading due on Dec. 1 and by official indicators.

Asian shares .MIAPJ0000PUS extended gains slightly after the data to stand up nearly 1 percent on the day and the Australian dollar AUD=D4, sensitive to demand from the biggest customer for Australia's resources, rose as far as $1.04.

"This confirms that the economic recovery continues to gain momentum towards the year-end," Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at index sponsor HSBC, said in a statement accompanying the data.

"However, it is still the early stage of recovery and global economic growth remains fragile. This calls for a continuation of policy easing to strengthen the recovery."

With a one-month exception in October 2011, the HSBC PMI -- which largely reflects the private manufacturing sector -- has remained stubbornly below the 50-point level separating accelerating from slowing growth since June 2011.

Unlike the patchy results seen in previous months, in November almost all the sub-indices in the HSBC survey concurred in showing an improving economy.

The one exception was a fall in the sub-index measuring output prices, demonstrating that manufacturers are still struggling with overcapacity and relatively weak domestic demand.

That could also reflect the weight in the survey of exporting firms, which have less ability to raise sales prices, said Standard Chartered's Li.

Indeed, China's exporters are increasingly squeezed by rising domestic costs and competition from new international suppliers, Zhou Haijiang, head of Chinese textile exporter Hodo Group, told reporters this month.

"Not only Western countries manufacture industrial goods, but also a lot of developing countries including former socialist countries who now have market economies are all exporting, thus creating a global surplus that cannot be changed," Zhou said.

"Because of this it is hard to raise sales prices, everyone is selling and it is hard for manufactured goods prices to rise. In some cases prices have even fallen."

Analysts expect no further cuts to interest rates this year or next after back-to-back cuts in June and July, and only one more 50 basis point cut to banks' required reserve ratios (RRR) in 2012 after three since late 2011 that have freed an estimated 1.2 trillion yuan for new lending.
Chinese banks are on course to make new loans worth more than 8.5 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in 2012, expansionary versus the 7.5 trillion of new loans extended in 2011 and above the 8 trillion yuan that sources told Reuters back in February was the target for 2012.

Total social financing aggregate, a broad measure of liquidity in the economy, weakened to 1.29 trillion yuan in October, down from 1.65 trillion yuan in September, but still remained on track to hit a record 14 trillion yuan this year.

China also opened many previously-closed sectors to private investment with a view to funding new infrastructure projects and supporting economic growth without piling on more debt that local governments can ill-afford.

Although analysts expect fourth quarter GDP growth to outpace the 7.4 percent seen in the third quarter, full-year expansion for 2012 is expected to be the slowest in 13 years.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose for a fifth day during a holiday-shortened, thinly traded session on Friday as investors picked up recently beaten-down shares of large technology companies.

Market participants were also encouraged by signs of progress in talks about releasing aid to debt-saddled Greece and piled into U.S. retail shares as Black Friday got the holiday shopping season under way.

U.S. stock market trading ended early and was closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Volume was the lightest of the year, though the session was abbreviated. Shares of big-cap technology companies climbed as investors took advantage of the day's upward momentum to add to positions, helping the S&P 500 rack up its second best week of 2012.

"Anyone that was on the sidelines waiting for a pullback like the one we just had in some of the tech names, they're looking for any glimpse of strong price action for 'permission' to enter into those (stocks)," said Todd Salamone, director of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio

Microsoft MSFT.O helped lift the Nasdaq, gaining 2.8 percent to $27.70, while Apple Inc AAPL.O rose 1.7 percent to $571.50.

From mid-September to mid-November, the S&P tech sector .GSPT shed about 13 percent as the broader market also dropped.

Research in Motion RIMM.O surged on optimism about its soon-to-be-launched BlackBerry 10 devices that will vie against Apple's AAPL.O iPhone and Android-based smartphones. RIM was up 13.6 percent at $11.66.
Greece said the International Monetary Fund had relaxed its debt-cutting target for the country, suggesting lenders were closer to a deal for a vital aid tranche to be paid. But other sources involved in the talks cautioned the funding gap was far bigger than Greece has suggested.

 
Euro zone finance ministers, the IMF and European Central Bank (ECB) failed earlier this week to agree on how to shrivel the country's debt to a sustainable level and will have a third attempt at resolving the issue on Monday.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 172.79 points, or 1.35 percent, to 13,009.68. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX rose 18.12 points, or 1.30 percent, to 1,409.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC climbed 40.30 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,966.85.

The S&P 500 broke a two-week losing streak to rise 3.6 percent. Stocks had tumbled earlier in the month on worries about the impact of tax and spending changes set to take effect from January, but hopes that politicians will reach a deal to avert the so-called fiscal cliff helped the market recoup some of those declines this week.

The Dow and S&P 500 both closed above key technical levels for the first time since Nov 6, which could provide additional support. The Dow ended above 13,000, while the S&P broke above 1,400.

The Dow rose 3.3 percent for the week, while the Nasdaq jumped 4 percent. The Nasdaq had ended lower for the previous six weeks in a row.

Volume was about 2.8 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of over 6 billion.

Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 2,407 to 469 on the New York Stock Exchange. On the Nasdaq, advancers had the lead, with 1,775 stocks gaining and 548 shares declining.

The retail sector rose as investors looked for signs of how much consumers are spending as stores lured shoppers with Black Friday deals and discounts.

Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, kicks off the U.S. Christmas shopping season for retailers and is often the busiest shopping day of the year. The National Retail Federation expects sales during the holiday season to grow 4.1 percent this year compared with last year's 5.6 percent increase.

If the traffic and sales numbers look strong early on, "it usually gives a sense that the season will be in line with expectations," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.

"The way that could work against a stronger retail season is if there's no follow-through, there could be discounting on the part of retailers."

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Nov 23 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures settled up 90 cents at $88.28 a barrel on Friday, lifted by fresh protests in Egypt and optimism about talks on releasing aid to Greece.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose in a holiday-shortened session, lifted by a weaker U.S. dollar and bullish economic data in China, the world's top soy buyer, traders said.
* CBOT December options expired at the close.

* Optimism about a deal to help Greece, hopes that U.S. lawmakers can agree on a solution to avoid a fiscal crisis, and data showing an improving global economic outlook have pressured the dollar and driven a rally in riskier asset markets, including commodities, this week.

* For the week, CBOT soybeans Sc1 settled up 2.7 percent, rebounding after three straight weekly losses that drove the market to a five-month low.
• China's manufacturing sector saw expansion accelerate in November for the first time in 13 months, preliminary data showed Thursday, a sign that the pace of economic growth in the world's biggest soy buyer has revived after seven consecutive quarters of slowdown.
• On a bearish note, China's soybean imports will grow at their slowest pace in six years this marketing year as sluggish demand and poor crushing margins dent Chinese purchases, a Reuters poll showed.
• Spot basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast mostly held steady early Friday amid a lack of selling by farmers, traders said.
• Traders continue to watch the Mississippi River amid concerns that low water levels could slow shipping. The U.S. Coast Guard has said it did not expect a river closure between St. Louis and Cairo, Illinois, but that restrictions on drafts and tow sizes were likely at some point.
• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 543,600 tonnes, within a range of trade estimates for 400,000 to 650,000 tonnes.
• USDA pegged weekly U.S. soymeal sales at 197,800 tonnes, slightly below a range of trade estimates for 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes.
• USDA reported weekly U.S. soyoil sales at 124,000 tonnes, well above a range of trade estimates for 50,000 to 70,000 tonnes.
• USDA through its daily reporting system on Friday confirmed sales of 20,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery.

• Argentine soy-crushing workers ended a brief strike in three of four soy-processing plants in the Rosario port area on Friday while negotiations with export company Bunge continued, a union official said.
• Brazilian grain industry association Abiove raised its estimate for the already harvested 2011/12 soybean crop to 67.7 million tonnes, from 66.8 million previously, which it said will mean an additional 800,000 tonnes of soybeans for export.

FCPO-SINGAPORE, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a fourth straight session on Friday and posted a third weekly loss in four, as investors remained concerned over slowing demand for the edible oil as prospects for global economic growth remained dim.

Investors were also cautious ahead of a European meeting on Monday, when international lenders would gather for a second time to reach a deal to release emergency aid for Greece.
Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer, exported less of the edible oil for the first 20 days of the month compared to October, fuelling concerns over its inventories that have hovered near record high levels.

"The market is still worried about exports, which slowed down due to the slew of holidays last week," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The question everybody is asking now is whether end stocks will be lower or slightly higher. I think it should be going down with lower production."

The benchmark February contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.7 percent to close at 2,395 ringgit ($783) per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 32,946 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Technicals showed a bearish target at 2,321 ringgit remains intact for palm oil based on a Fibonacci retracement analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

 
For the week, futures lost 1.4 percent on worries that the U.S. budget crisis, and the euro zone's ongoing financial woes, could weigh on demand.

Malaysian shipments of the tropical oil fell 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent for the Nov. 1-20 period from a month ago, cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance said respectively.
Traders are hoping the annual price outlook conference, organised by the Indonesia Palm Oil Association on next Thursday and Friday, would provide more perspective.

In related markets, Brent crude slipped towards $110 a barrel on Friday as weak data from Europe raised concerns about global demand and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip eased supply concerns, offsetting positive manufacturing data from China.

 
In other vegetable oil markets, the most active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.2 percent higher. The U.S. financial markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

REGIONAL EQUITY- Nov 23 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian stock markets edged up on Friday, with Philippines rising to a record close, helped by optimism over the global economy and progress in Greece aid talks, while solid manufacturing surveys in the United States and China lifted sentiment.

The Philippines .PSI, the region's best performer this year, gained 0.7 percent to a record closing high of 5,552.34, led by banks. The index rose 2.1 percent this week.

Indonesia .JKSE gained 0.3 percent, led by banking shares, to its highest close since Nov. 14 with a foreign inflow of $30 million.

Thailand .SETI edged up 0.2 percent, helped by energy shares, while Singapore .FTSTI gained for a fifth straight session to end 0.1 percent higher.

Bucking the trend, Malaysia .KLSE ended down 0.3 percent, witnessing a net foreign selling of $12.56 million. Vietnam .VNI lost 0.4 percent on bad debt and economic woes.

Friday, November 23, 2012

Trader's highlight


NYMEX - SEOUL, Nov 22 (Reuters) - U.S. crude extended gains on Thursday ahead of a U.S. holiday, buoyed by a weaker dollar and a surprise drop in U.S. crude oil stocks, while a ceasefire in the oil-producing Middle East capped prices as it eased concerns about supply.

FUNDAMENTALS
  • U.S. crude oil futures had climbed 31 cents to $87.69 a barrel by 0005 GMT, after settling up 63 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $87.38 a barrel on Wednesday.
  • Brent crude futures settled up $1.03, or 0.9 percent, at $110.86 a barrel previously.
  • Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday that total U.S. crude oil inventories fell 1.47 million barrels in the week to Nov. 16 to 374.47 million barrels, after analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a build of 900,000 barrels.
  • A ceasefire between Israel and Gaza's Hamas rulers took hold on Thursday after eight days of conflict, although deep mistrust on both sides cast doubt on how long the Egyptian-sponsored deal can last.
Even after the ceasefire came into force late on Wednesday, a dozen rockets from the Gaza Strip landed in Israel, all in open areas, a police spokesman said. In Gaza, witnesses reported an explosion shortly after the truce took effect at 1900 GMT, but there were no casualties and the cause was unclear. 
  • Six world powers agreed on Wednesday to seek renewed talks with Iran as fast as possible, reflecting a heightened sense of urgency to resolve a long rift over Tehran's disputed nuclear activity and avert the threat of war.
  • NATO ambassadors met on Wednesday to consider a Turkish request for the deployment of Patriot missiles near its border with Syria as the conflict in its southern neighbour deepens.
  • U.S. manufacturing grew in November at its quickest pace in five months, with a rise in domestic demand hinting that factories could provide a boost to economic growth in the fourth quarter.
FCPO - SINGAPORE, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell on Thursday, slipping for a third straight day, as slowing exports continued to weigh and investors stayed cautious ahead of a bailout deal for Greece that could boost sentiment.

International lenders will meet again next Monday after they failed for the second week to reach a deal to release emergency aid for Greece, but major lender Germany signalled that significant divisions remain.

"The price outlook for crude palm oil has deteriorated. With the cargo surveyors’ export data for the first 20 days of November showing a decline of about 3 percent, we see a higher possibility now of November’s inventory level to register another record high," Alan Lim Seong Chun, research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a note on Thursday.

Regional Equities - Nov 22 (Reuters) - Singapore stocks rose to a more than one-week high on Thursday, led by banks as solid manufacturing surveys in the United States and China allayed concerns about the global slowdown, while other markets ended mixed, weighed down by worries over debt problems in Greece.

Indonesia added 0.4 percent with $15.03 million foreign inflow, while Thailand finished 0.2 percent firmer on heavy volume.

Malaysia which witnessed a foreign outflow of $15.19 million, fell 0.3 percent and Vietnam edged down 0.2 percent, both on thin volumes.


Thursday, November 22, 2012

RTRS - China confirms to stockpile domestic corn, soy at higher prices


BEIJING, Nov 21 (Reuters) - China confirmed on Wednesday that it would stockpile corn and soybeans grown domestically at higher prices than last year to help farmers' incomes.
The government will pay 4,600 yuan ($740) per tonne of soy and 2,100-2,140 yuan per tonne of corn to farmers in northeastern provinces, the country's major corn area, the State Administration of Grain said.

Those prices are around 15 percent higher than offered last year, a source who had seen government documents on the step told Reuters in mid-November. 

The stockpiling programme will end on April 30 next year, said the bureau, which requires state warehouses to accept as much as farmers can sell.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday after a ceasefire was declared to end the flare-up in violence between Israel and the Palestinians, though the lack of a deal to release emergency aid for Greece limited the market's advance.

Investors also remained anxious about the mandatory tax increases and spending cuts that would go into effect in the new year if a deal is not reached to prevent it - known as the "fiscal cliff" - though policymakers are not expected to get back to negotiations until after Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday.

Greece's international lenders failed again to reach a deal to release emergency aid to the debt-saddled country. Lenders will try again next Monday, but Germany signaled that significant divisions remain.

A truce between Israel and Hamas gave stocks some support around midday after Egypt announced a ceasefire will come into effect later in the day. 

Other data showed manufacturing picked up at its quickest pace in five months in November, while consumer sentiment improved only slightly.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures rose 63 cents to settle at $87.38 a barrel on Wednesday, as late-day short-covering ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday offset earlier relief over a ceasefire that ended eight days of fighting in the Gaza strip.

CBOT Soybean - Nov 21 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell on Wednesday, on technical selling and profit-taking ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday, traders said.
*The slide came after two sessions of gains as prices rebounded from last week's five-month low.
  • CBOT soyoil bucked the weak trend in the complex and closed higher for a third day, buoyed by export demand for U.S. soyoil and short-covering. Funds hold a large net short position in soyoil.
  • USDA confirmed sales of 56,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to unknown destinations and another 20,000 tonnes to China for 2012/13 delivery. 
  • USDA also confirmed sales of 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2012/13 delivery.
  • Customs data from top global soy buyer China showed it imported 4.03 million tonnes of soy in October, up 5.8 percent from a year earlier. Year-to-date soy imports were up 16.6 percent from a year ago. 
  • China confirmed that it would stockpile corn and soybeans grown domestically at higher prices than last year to help farmers' incomes. The stockpiling program will end on April 30 next year.
  • Trade expects USDA's export sales report on Friday to show sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 400,000 to 650,000 tonnes.
  • Rain will reach dry soybean farms in southern Brazil by the weekend and persist into next week, weather forecaster Somar said. The moisture should kick-start germination of the newly-seeded crop after a short dry spell.
FCPO - SINGAPORE, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures eased on Wednesday, inching down for a second straight session as lacklustre export data fuelled traders' concerns over a slowdown in demand.

Malaysian palm exports for Nov. 1-20 fell 3.3 percent to 1.02 million tonnes from a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Tuesday. Another surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a drop of 3.8 percent in shipments for the same period. 

Although Chinese demand continued to grow on festival buying ahead of the Lunar New Year and as buyers stocked up before stricter quality measures take effect in 2013, palm oil prices were weighed down by much weaker Malaysian shipments to Europe and India. 

"The market is fundamentally bearish and prices will further correct before positive sentiment enters the market," said a trader with a Malaysian commodities brokerage.

Regional Equities - Nov 21 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian stock markets closed firmer-to-flat on Wednesday, weighed down by uncertainty over a bailout deal for Greece and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke highlighting the dangers of a fiscal crisis.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

RTRS - U.S. to win more China soyoil sales on tight supplies - Oil World

HAMBURG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The United States is likely to win more soyoil sales to China in the final weeks of 2012 as supplies from South America sell out after poor soybean crops earlier this year, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

In October, Brazil exported a hefty 91,000 tonnes of soyoil to China, Argentina exported 110,000 tonnes and the United States lagged behind with an estimated 76,000 tonnes, Oil World said.

“But a slowdown (in Brazilian and Argentine sales) is likely to occur in November and December due to declining production and export supplies of the two South American countries,” Oil World said.

“Therefore China has shifted to U.S. origin, resulting in a sharp increase in U.S. soyoil exports to China in Oct./Dec. 2012.”

China has been increasing its overall soyoil imports from all countries since mid-2012 as domestic demand continues to rise, it said.

China is likely to import 1.7 million tonnes of soyoil in Jan./Dec. 2012, up 0.57 million tonnes on 2011 and a three-year high, Oil World forecast.

RTRS - Oil World cuts Argentine and Brazilian soybean crop forecasts

HAMBURG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday it has cut its forecasts of 2013 soybean harvests in Argentina and Brazil by a combined 3 million tonnes because of unfavourable weather disrupting sowings in both countries.

Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 54.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 56.0 million tonnes it forecast in October but still up from 40.5 million tonnes Argentina harvested in early 2012.

Oil World forecasts Brazil will harvest 81.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 82.0 million tonnes forecast in October but also still up from 66.8 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early 2012.

Soybean prices hit record highs in September as drought ravaged the U.S. crop, but slumped to five-month lows on Friday as the U.S. harvest turned out larger than expected and big South American output may relieve world supplies in early 2013. 

But some parts of Brazil are too dry to enable soybean sowings while some Argentine plantings have been disrupted by repeated rain, Oil World said.

“So far the market has shown little response to the significant planting delays in Argentina, apparently trusting in the ability of Argentine farmers to accomplish plantings and produce a large crop even under detrimental conditions," it said.

Oil World stressed that global soybean stocks are declining and The United States can satisfy a somewhat larger share of global soybean demand than anticipated two months ago because its crop is larger than feared, Oil World said.

“However, the recent pace of U.S. soybean exports and crushings also exceeded expectations and will result in a severe depletion of U.S. soybean stocks by early 2013,” it said. “It may thus be a risky policy to bet on strong price pressure from large South American crops already today.”

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - World shares rebounded and oil prices fell on Tuesday on news of a possible Egyptian-brokered cease-fire in the Gaza conflict, but comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about the potential impact of the U.S. "fiscal cliff" rattled investors, causing Wall Street to close flat.

World equity markets turned positive after a Hamas official said a cease-fire was expected to start at midnight, although Israel later said there was still no deal to end a week of fighting around the Gaza Strip. 

Wall Street moved in and out of negative territory, pulled lower by comments from Bernanke, who said the U.S. economy faced a series of "headwinds." He cited damage to the U.S. housing sector and mortgage markets, and a sharp tightening in credit.

In comments before the Economic Club of New York, Bernanke said the Fed does not have the tools to offset a potential recession if politicians fail to strike a deal to prevent a fiscal shortfall of some $600 billion.

Growing speculation that euro zone finance ministers will agree to release aid to debt-laden Greece reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as German bonds and bolstered the appetite for European equities.
Moody's announcement late on Monday of a cut in France's credit rating initially sent European shares lower.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell 2.8 percent on Tuesday on signs that an imminent ceasefire would end a week of rocket attacks and air strikes between Palestinians and Israelis.

CBOT Soybean - Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose 1.3 percent, their biggest daily gain in a month, on short-covering ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and after a private analyst cut its projections of the South American soy harvest, traders said.
  • Oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecasts of 2012/2013 Argentine soybean production to 54 million tonnes, from 56 million previously, and Brazilian soy production to 81 million tonnes, from 82 million previously. Oil World said parts of Brazil are too dry while some Argentine plantings have been disrupted by repeated rain.
  • The United States is likely to win more soyoil sales to China in the final weeks of 2012 as supplies from South America sell out after poor soybean crops earlier this year - Oil World. 
  • USDA said private exporters reported the sale of 20,000 tonnes of optional-origin soybean oil to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery - correcting an announcement from Monday that said the sale was for U.S.-origin soybean oil.
  • Spot basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were mostly steady, underpinned by concerns that low water on the mid-Mississippi River could restrict barge movement as soon as next month.
  • Brazilian forward sales of soybeans from the 2012/13 crop stalled in the last week as CBOT prices sagged, with sales unchanged at 49 percent of the expected harvest - analyst Celeres.
FCPO - SINGAPORE, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Tuesday, as investors booked profits after the contract hit a more than two week high earlier in the day and as export demand continued to show signs of slowing.

The world's No.2 palm producer exported 1.02 million tonnes of palm products for Nov. 1-20, down 3.3 percent from 1.06 million tonnes a month ago, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Tuesday. 

"Market participants are also anxious as they wait for the outcome of the European financial meeting," he added, referring to a gathering later on Tuesday where euro zone finance ministers are expected to give a tentative go-ahead for the disbursement of 44 billion euros in emergency loans to Greece.

Singapore commodities trader Olam International Ltd defended its accounting practices after attacks by short-seller Muddy Waters which media reports said questioned the way it keeps its books, sending its shares tumbling as much as 11 percent in heavy volume.

Regional Equities - Nov 20 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian stock markets closed higher on Tuesday, with the Philippines hitting a record high on hopes that the U.S. Congress reaches a compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" that threatens to derail the world's largest economy.

Optimism over averting the U.S. fiscal crisis was, however, capped by renewed concerns over the euro zone debt crisis after a credit rating agency stripped France of its top-notch rating.