Thursday, November 13, 2008

KLSE Daily: remains weak


Market momentum remains weak. We continue to look for the upside at 889-890. Downside support remained at 868-867 followed by 850-848.

FKLI Daily: more room to downside potential


Market broke out from the triangle to end with double digit losses. However, we can see a good defend at 862.5-863.5. As for now, immediate resistance is at 875.5-877 followed by 881-883.

FCPO Daily: end of consolidation phase


It's the end of consolidation phase following 1500 mark failed to defend. Looks market may continue its downside move in near term. We now look at the resistance at 1496-1505 (gap left over today) followed by 1545-1565. For downside, support is pegged at 1391-1358 followed by 1331.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended RM59 lower after recovered some of its earlier losses

Palm oil futures ended RM59 lower after recovered some of its earlier more than 5 % losses. Benchmark Jan09 initially open RM56 lower at 1483 following overnight NYMEX crude oil which settled more than $3 lower, coupled with lower CBOT soy complex. CPO then immediately tumbled down to hit intra day low of 1435 during the afternoon session, as NYMEX crude oil trade below $55 a barrel (which is also a 22-month low) at Asian time zone. ECBOT and Dalian palm also follow suit. Nevertheless, CPO prices encountered strong short covering activities in the later part of 2nd session. Benchmark Jan09 rebounded sharply but failed to reach today’s left over gap. It hit the intra day high at 1496 before it settled at 1480, as traders began to speculate on the decision of OPEC members to cut output by year-end.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-China think-tank cuts '08 soy output estimate

BEIJING, Nov 12 (Reuters) - A Chinese grain think-tank revised downward its forecast for the country's 2008 soybean output by 1 million tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes due to lower yields in the country's largest soybean area.
The projection was still 30 percent higher than last year's output, according to the report by the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC).

Breraking News-RTRS-Australia seeks permanent ban on naked short selling

CANBERRA, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Australia proposes to permanently ban naked short selling of stocks in response to the global financial crisis, and will pass laws for more disclosure for covered short selling, Corporate Law Minister Nick Sherry said on Thursday.
Sherry said the government would also propose increasing regulation and supervision of ratings agencies.
The proposals will go before parliament today for debate.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks plunged on Wednesday after a shift in how the U.S. government will use its $700 billion bailout fund fed uncertainty and oil prices slid to 21-month lows on fears of a deep global recession.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he was backing away from buying troubled mortgage assets and would focus on the capital needs of both banks and non-bank financial institutions.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed down 411.30 points, or 4.73 percent, at 8,282.66. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 46.65 points, or 5.19 percent, at 852.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 81.69 points, or 5.17 percent, at 1,499.21.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures tumbled on Wednesday amid a bleak demand forecast from the government and as Wall Street skidded again, along with other major equities markets, on deepening economic worries.

A stronger dollar also pressured oil. More indications that OPEC is considering another output cut, if oil prices keep falling, failed to stem the day's slide.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down $3.17, or 5.34 percent, at $56.16 a barrel, the lowest since prices ended at $54.01 on Jan. 29, 2007. It traded from $55.94 to $59.50, but in post-settlement trade the
day's low extended to $55.62, the lowest since prices hit $53.82 on Jan. 30, 2007.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- November down 22-3/4 cents at $8.85-1/4 per bushel; January down 21 at $8.95.

Following weak crude oil, with mounting worries that a global recession may trim demand for soy.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December down 1.15 cents at 32.58 cents per lb. Pressured by weak crude oil, declines in soybeans.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed nearly 3 percent lower on Wednesday after recouping some early losses on short-covering, traders said.

The early sell-off was sparked by crude oil's extended losses after settling below $60 for the first time in 20 months on Tuesday on demand worries, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 47 ringgit, or 2.96 percent, to 1,539 ringgit ($429) per tonne. The contract hit a low of 1,505 ringgit per tonne earlier.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks dropped on
Wednesday, with financials such as DBS Group pulling Singapore down for a second day and energy shares like PTT and Banpu helping to send the Thai market to its lowest in over a week.

Malaysia's index <.KLSE> slid 0.48 percent, the second day of falls, Jakarta shares <.JKSE> lost 0.74 percent and Vietnam shares <.VNI> ended 2.67 percent lower at a two-week low. But Philippine shares <.PSI> eked out a 0.03 percent gain.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended lower after trading in a roller-coaster manner

CPO futures ended lower after trading in a roller-coaster manner, as crude oil fell below $60. Benchmark Jan09 initially open RM44 lower at 1542, tracking overnight NYMEX crude oil, which settled below $60 a barrel since March 2007, and also a lower CBOT amid stronger dollar and weakening equities. CPO prices then bounced back and hit intra day high at 1563, but failed in its attempt to close yesterday’s left over gap. It then fell to the day low of 1505. During the early 2nd session, some covering activities emerged at the lower end, and sent prices rebounded to 1551. Later it hovered mostly between 1545-1515 before it settled at 1539, down RM 47. Market sentiment remained weak due to crude oil trading below $60, and also easier underlying cash market.

DJI Daily: downtrend resume


A clearer direction had seen after DJI breakout from the triangle formation. Looks downtrend likely to continue in near term. Resistance and support remained at 9794-9653 and 8143-7882 level respectively.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

FCPO Daily: stuck in range 1500-1700


Market is directionless and stuck in the range of 1500 to 1700 level.

FKLI Daily: struggle to survive


Market continue to move inside the triangle. we maintains the resistance at 927-931 level and immediate support at 863.5-862.5 followed by 843-839.

KLSE Daily: range trading


Consolidation phase looks may extended in near term. We continue to look for the upside at 905-913,gap left over since 5th Nov, 2008. Downside support remained at 868-867 followed by 850-848.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysia to announce new measures to aid economy

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Malaysia's Minister for International Trade Muhyiddin Yassin, one of three men competing to become the country's deputy prime minister, is set out new measures to boost investment to help offset slower growth.
"He is going to announce the details on Friday, especially on incentives, how to attract more investment, how to tackle the global economic situation and how to cushion the impact (of the worldwide financial crisis)," Muhyiddin's spokesman said on Wednesday.

Trader's Comment: Malaysia palm oil futures fell as crude oil weaken amid worry of slowing global demand.

Malaysia palm oil futures fell as crude oil weaken amid worry of slowing global demand. Benchmark Jan09 open RM39 lower at 1587, tracking NYMEX crude oil that fell again to challenge $60 level during Asian time zone. It hit the day low of 1571 and then bounce back and hit the day high of 1610 by mid-day, following the recovering in regional equity market. However, this “bull” was not strong enough during afternoon session. Coupled with the fell of eCBOT and Dalian palm, CPO prices immediately gap down and resumed lower in the 2nd session and remained weak for the rest of the day. The subsequent collapse of regional equity market as the worries of company earnings began to get worse world wide, also spilled over to CPO prices. Statement issued by well-known analyst Dorab Mistry, which stated that CPO futures could slide to RM1200 if crude oil declines to $50 a barrel, had also provided more selling pressure to the already weak sentiment. Benchmark Jan09 slide down to 1574 before it settled at 1586.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 2-China soy imports in Oct lower, but to pick up

BEIJING, Nov 11 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soybean buyer, saw soybean imports nearly halve in October from the previous month, but shipments should bounce back in November.
Traders attributed the low October imports partly to advanced customs clearance by some buyers to enjoy a lower tariff rate of 1 percent that expired at the end of September.
"Imports remain more attractive than domestic soybeans, we see arrivals back to normal this month with imports at more than 3 million tonnes also for December," said one industry analyst with a government think-tank.

Breaking News-RTRS-More soyoil to go for biodiesel output - Oil World

HAMBURG, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Biodiesel production could account for as much as 25 percent of total soyoil consumption in the U.S., Argentina, Brazil and European Union in 2008/09, oilseeds analyst Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
"This development is limiting soy oil export supplies on the world market already today and has contributed to wide price premiums over palm oil," the Hamburg-based group said.
The four regions in 2007/08 are forecast to have raised soyoil usage for biodiesel by 800,000 tonnes on the year to 3.5-3.6 million tonnes, or 22 percent of their total soy oil consumption, it said.

Breaking News-RTRS-INTERVIEW-Malaysia's palm refinery capacity seen flat on crisis

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Palm oil refinery capacity in Malaysia, the No 2. producer of the vegetable oil, is likely to remain flat at 19.2 million tonnes next year as some refiners tread cautiously in a constricted global credit market after years of expansion, a top industry body said on Tuesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-Indonesian 2008 palm oil output up sharply - Oil World

HAMBURG, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output in 2008 is likely to rise by 2.0 million tonnes from 2007 to 19.33 million, increasing the country's exports and stocks, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.

Breaking News-RTRS-First "sustainable" palm oil on way to Rotterdam

ROTTERDAM, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The first shipment of palm oil which is certified as "sustainable" by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) is due to reach Rotterdam next week, as critics still question whether the label is justified.
Under fire for its role in rainforest and wildlife destruction, the palm oil industry established the RSPO in 2004 to develop a certification system and this first shipment is a milestone, industry leaders said on Tuesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as faltering demand at aluminum maker Alcoa and a dismal outlook from Tyco International showed the global economic slowdown is deepening.

Selling was widespread, with commodity-related shares tumbling as resources ranging from oil to silver were stung by fears that the economic gloom will curb demand and as the U.S. dollar firmed.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 176.58 points, or 1.99 percent, to 8,693.96, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 20.26 points, or 2.20 percent, to 898.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> slid 35.84 points, or 2.22 percent, to 1,580.90.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures settled on Tuesday below $60 a barrel for the first time since March 2007 as demand concerns deepened amid slumping equities and as the dollar strengthened.

Crude futures fell sharply even after a fresh indication from OPEC of another output cut if prices keep falling and amid signs of slowing demand from China.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down $3.08, or 4.94 percent, at $59.33, the lowest settlement since $56.73 on March 20, 2007. It traded from $58.32, also the lowest since March 20, 2007, to $62.28. On the day's low, prices have fallen $88.95, or 60.4 percent, from the record $147.27 hit on July 11.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- November contract down 32 cents at $9.08 per bushel; January down 32 cents at $9.16.

Declining stock markets amid concerns about China's economy, falling crude oil and a strong dollar combine weigh on soybean futures.

China saw soybean imports nearly halve in October but shipments should bounce back in November. U.S. traders have been reporting rising export demand from China during the past few weeks.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December contract down 1.65 at 33.73 cents per lb. Pressured by weak crude oil, a strong dollar and declining equities markets.

FCPO-
JAKARTA, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell more than 2 percent on Tuesday on weaker crude oil and concern over a build up in supply as demand fades, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 40 ringgit, or 2.52 percent to 1,586 Malaysian ringgit ($443) per tonne on the day after trading as low as 1,571 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, hit by growing fears of a global economic slowdown, with financials and other blue chips such as Singapore's SingTel, Thailand's AIS and Malaysia's IOI Corp posting big declines.

Singapore's Straits Times index <.FTSTI> tumbled 4.1 percent.Thai stocks <.SETI> dropped 3.1 percent, led by a 6.6 percent fall in Advanced Info Service , Malaysia's index <.KLSE> shed 1.07 percent, Indonesia's <.JKSE> lost 0.3 percent and
Vietnam's index <.VNI> fell 3.9 percent to end at a one-week low.