Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures recouped some of its earlier losses on late covering to end off low.

Palm oil futures recouped some of its earlier losses on late covering to end off low. Benchmark May09 initially opened RM50 lower at 1845, tracking overnight CBOT soy oil’s heave loss. It managed to climb to 1879 only, failed to cover its yesterday’s left over gap, and then fell again to intra day low at 1842 before lunch break. Local CPO market seems to remain supportive above 1800 level as there were no signs of aggressive selling activity despite the extremely bearish external factors, especially with Dalian palm trading at limit down prices through out the whole day, while eCBOT also edged lower. Benchmark May09 began to hover between 1842-1870 level through out the afternoon session, before some late covering activities emerged and pushed CPO prices to intra day high of 1887, before it finally settled RM20 lower at 1875.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Feb 17 - The accelerating global economic downturn unnerved world markets on Tuesday, sending U.S. stocks to their lowest point since November's bear market lows and driving the price of gold to a seven-month high.

Deepening concerns about worldwide economic growth and the global banking system, in particular, sent investors scurrying to the relative safety of gold and government debt.

The Dow Jones industrial average closedddown 297.81 points, or 3.79 percent, at 7,552.60. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 37.67 points, or 4.56 percent, at 789.17. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 63.70 points, or 4.15 percent, at 1,470.66.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, Feb 17 - U.S. crude futures tumbled on Tuesday, ceding most of Friday's gains as demand worries amid a recession-hit economy again weighed on oil prices.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crudesettled down $2.58, or 6.88 percent, at $34.93 a barrel, trading from $34.45 to $38.49. The March crude contract's lifetime low is $33.55. The contract expires on Friday.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March down 52-1/2 cents at $9.03 a bushel. Hit by falling stock markets and crude oil and gains in the dollar. Forecasts for Argentina to see more rain late this week also bearish.

CBOT - SOYOIL - March down 1.85 cents at 31.15 cents per lb. Pressured by lower crude oil, falling stock markets and declines in soy futures.

FCPO - JAKARTA, Feb 17 - Malaysian crude palm futures dropped for the second day in a row on Tuesday, to finish at a one-week low amid concerns over weaker exports, traders said.

"I think the market is expecting the end stocks this month could rebuild above the January figure because of slow exports, unless production drop sharply," a trader at a Malaysian commodities brokerage said.

The benchmark May contract fell 27 ringgit, or 1.4 percent, to 1,895 ringgit ($521) per tonne, the lowest level since February 10.

REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, Feb 17 - Southeast Asian stock markets slumped on Tuesday as dismal Japanese growth data and concern about the financial sector fanned worries about the global economy.

Singapore's Straits Times Index extended recent falls to close down 2.55 percent after hitting its lowest level since Nov. 24. It was also weighed down by a record slump in Singapore's non-oil exports in January.

Thailand fell nearly 2 percent, while Indonesia dropped 1.8 percent, ending a three-day winning streak.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended below 1900 level after a choppy trading in range bound mode.

CPO futures ended below 1900 level after a choppy trading in range bound mode. Market sentiment had remained uncertain with easier tone through out the day as traders were cautiously awaiting for fresh leads. This caused Benchmark May09 to hover between 1935-1895 level after it opened RM13 lower at 1909, tracking the eCBOT and Dalian palm that edged down through out the day. CPO prices were seen struggling to hold at 1900 level and was tested several times. Nevertheless, the last wave of selling activity in late trading sent Benchmark May09 to hit intra day low at 1892 before it finally settled RM27 lower at 1895.

Trader's Highlight

FCPO-JAKARTA, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm futures retreated from a five-week high to finish 3.6 percent lower on Monday as news of weak exports sparked profit-taking, traders said.

The day also saw trading briefly suspended due to a technical glitch.

The benchmark May contract fell 72 ringgit or 3.6 percent to 1,922 ringgit ($532) per tonne, after going as high as 2,017 ringgit, the highest since Jan. 7.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday as fears of a worsening global recession continued to stifle demand for equities, dragging down financial shares such as Singapore's DBS and Thailand's Bangkok Bank.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> led the losers, falling 1.3 percent after posting a 1.2 percent gain last Friday, with banking and commodity blue chips leading decliners.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE>, the best performers in the region so far this year, ended 0.3 percent lower, while the Philippines <.PSI> eased 0.2 percent and Vietnam <.VNI> dropped 0.8 percent, at one stage hitting its lowest since October 2005. Thai stocks <.SETI>, however, bucked the trend to rise 0.2 percent and Indonesian shares <.JKSE> gained 0.24 percent.

KLSE Daily: Steady


Market remains steady and moving in tight range. We look for the resistance at 910-920. Downside support is at 895-890.

FKLI Daily: Struggling above 900 mark


Market continue to hold ground above 900 mark. We now looking for the upside at 920-925. Support is at 885-880.

FCPO Daily: Tough resistance at 2058


Market surrendered all its earlier gain after failed to sustain above 2000 mark. Upside resistance at 2058 looks tough to test. Thus, market may retreat after the recent rebound. We are now looking for the downside support at 1907-1900 followed by 1860-1850.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures surrendered its earlier gains on weaker export figures.

Palm oil futures surrendered its earlier gains on weaker export figures. Benchmark May09 fell to 1971 after it opened almost unchanged, following the release of export data last Saturday by private cargo surveyor, ITS which reported a decline of nearly 12%. Initially it was still well supported as it rebounded again to a new recent high at 2017 before trading on BMD halted by midday on technical problem. Nevertheless, market sentiment in the afternoon session immediately changed when another private cargo surveyor SGS released its export data which also reported a lower by 13%. Benchmark May09 was unable to hold and immediately fell to the low of 1932. It then bounced back to hover between 1948-1968, before another wave of late selling activity emerged which hammered the prices down to 1920 and settled RM72 lower at 1922. There was no trading in eCBOT today as US markets are closed on Monday for the President’s Day.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Argentine farm groups say postpone strike

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Argentine farms groups said on Thursday they postponed a planned strike against government agricultural policies and appealed to President Cristina Fernandez to hold talks aimed at ending the standoff.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Hopes for the implementation of government stimulus packages rekindled some global appetite for risk on Friday, encouraging investors to move out of safe-haven government bonds and gold, although Wall Street slipped on renewed banking sector fears.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> finished down 82.35 points, or 1.04 percent, at 7,850.41, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 8.35 points, or 1.0 percent, at 826.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 7.35 points, or 0.48 percent, at 1,534.36.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended up more than 10 percent on Friday, on hopes that passage of a U.S. economic stimulus package expected to be completed later in the day will help halt an oil demand slowdown.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled up $3.53, or 10.39 percent, at $37.51 a barrel, trading from $33.81 to $38.25. For the week, the contract was down $2.66, or 6.62 percent.

NYMEX April crude ended at $41.97, down 20 cents, or 0.47 percent, its premium over March crude shrinking to $4.46, from $8.19 at the close on Thursday.

NYMEX will be closed on Monday for the U.S. Presidents Day holiday and will reopen on Tuesday. Electronic trading on CME Globex and NYMEX Clearport are unaffected and will run on the
normal schedule.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 13 cents to $9.55-1/2 a bushel.

Turned lower as rain forecast for Argentine triggering sales. Also bearish was Argentine farmers postponing strike against the government -- a move that could have impacted exports.

National Oilseed Processors Association to issue January crush data on Tuesday.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March up 0.17 cent to 33.00 cents a lb. Firm, gaining on soymeal after palm oil rallies.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm futures jumped as much as 3.7 percent to hit 5-week highs on Friday as investors took positions on fears drought conditions may worsen in rival soyoil-producing Argentina.

Benchmark April contract settled up 67 ringgit at 1,995 ringgit ($552.3) per tonne, after going as high as 2,000 ringgit, a level unseen since Jan. 7.

Other traded contracts gained between 25 and 130 ringgit <0#KPO:>. Overall volume shot up to 15,176 lots of 25 tonnes each from the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock
markets turned higher on Friday, led by financials and property shares such as UOB and Capitaland, with the Thai market also helped by demand for energy blue chips.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> rose 1.2 percent, Indonesia <.JKSE> climbed about 1 percent, Thailand <.SETI> added 1.2 percent and Malaysia <.KLSE>, the best performer in the region so far this year, was up 1.7 percent.

DJI Weekly: Tight range trading likely to continue


Market likely to continue its range trading in near term. We are now looking for the resistance and support at 8300-8400 and 7449 level respectively.

KLSE Weekly: Sideways to bias upside potential


Market violated the 900 mark and stayed firm. Looks market may continue to move sideways to bias upside potential with upside resistance is now looking at 920-925 followed by 936. Downside support is pegged at 874-868.

FKLI Weekly: 900 mark manage to hold?


Market tried hard to sustain above the 900 mark. Immediate technical outlook looks little improving following another week of good closing. However, market need to gather more effort in order to continue survive above 900 mark. For now, we look at the resistance at 925-927 followed by 937. while, downside support is at 875-870.

FCPO Weekly: Holding firm with bias upside potential


Market tested the 2000 mark after violated the resistance at 1998 had strengthened further the technical landscape. Market looks may want to continue challenge the upside target at 2058 in near term. For downside, support is pegged at 1740-1720.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Trader's Comment: The return of BULL

The “bull” fiercely returned again as it touched 2000 level amid previous short sellers aggressively covered their position after got caught on squeeze. Benchmark Apr09 opened RM9 higher at 1937 and rallied all the way up through out the day, tracking the improving external factors as eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm rose steadily after bouncing back from their overnight losses. The plan to protest by Argentine farmers and coupled with some weather concern had also prompted traders to speculate on the CPO prices. Technical buying also helped to push the market after 1900 level was defended well during the last couple of trading days. Benchmark Apr09 hit the intra day high at 2000 before it finally settled RM67 higher at 1995.

Breaking News-RTRS-Argentine farm groups to meet, map out protests

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers, locked in a long-running dispute with the government over farm policies, will meet Thursday to finalize plans for fresh protests that are not expected to affect soy exports.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks staged a late rally to close mostly higher on Thursday after Reuters reported the Obama administration was working on a program to subsidize mortgage payments for troubled homeowners.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher while the Dow industrials retraced losses to close slightly lower as investors starved for good news bet the government had taken a big step toward stabilizing the housing market.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> shed 6.77 points, or 0.09 percent, to end at 7,932.76. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 1.45 points, or 0.17 percent, to 835.19. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 11.21 points, or 0.73 percent, to 1,541.71.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell for the fifth straight session on Thursday, sliding to the lowest settlement in nearly two months as oil demand worries persisted a day after government data showed U.S. crude
supplies rose sharply last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled down $1.96, or 5.45 percent, at $33.98 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Dec. 19's $33.87. It traded from $33.55 -- a new contract low and lowest since Jan. 20's $32.70 -- to $36.25.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - March down 9-1/2 cents at $9.68-1/2 a bushel.

Improved crop weather this week in Argentina, firm dollar, lower crude oil and falling stock market adds pressure with market underpinned by big U.S. soy exports.

USDA baseline report pegged 2009 soy acres 74.0 million, down from 75.7 million last year. Soy production for 2009 forecast 3.110 billion bushels, up from 2.959 billion.

Drier and hotter weather expected to increase stress on Argentine crops over the next 5-7 days especially in areas that did not receive rainfall this week.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March down 0.35 cent at 32.83 cents a pound. Falling crude oil weighs on soyoil prices.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm futures were mostly little changed on Thursday as fears of weakening demand in coming weeks pared earlier gains from falling domestic inventories.

Benchmark April contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 3 Malaysian ringgit to 1,928 Malaysian ringgit ($534.2) after going as high as 1,945 ringgit.

Other traded contracts mostly fell marginally, although the Sept. contract edged higher <0#KPO:>. Overall volume stood at 10,276 lots of 25 tonnes.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Feb 12 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Thursday as investors offloaded financials such as Singapore's United Overseas Bank and Malaysia's Bumiputra as the latest U.S. moves to tackle the financial crisis left investors cold.

Singapore led the regional losses, with the Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closing down 2.15 percent, erasing recent gains.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> also fell for a second day, down 0.3 percent, with Sime Darby Bhd losing 1.7 percent.

FCPO Daily: 1900 mark defended


1900 mark continue to provide support and looks market may extend its tight range trading again. We are now looking the upside resistance at 1967-1969 followed by 1981-1998. Downside support is pegged at 1900-1880 followed by 1860-1850.

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended mix to easier on a range trading day.

Palm oil futures ended mix to easier on a range trading day. Benchmark Apr09 had been hovering between day high 1945 and day low 1907 through out the day, before it finally settled RM3 higher at 1928. Fourth contract month (May09) settled RM5 lower at 1915 after trading within 1935 to 1900. Market sentiment was mix as eCBOT soy complex edged higher in the earlier trade but surrendered its gains again in the last hour of trading, while Dalian palm extended its yesterday’s losses. Trading was rather quiet with overall volume declined to only 10,276 contracts changed hands as traders were cautiously waiting for any fresh leads. Market may want to consolidate after the recent rally. The fall of overnight NYMEX crude oil and CBOT soy oil had resulted in Benchmark Apr09 to open RM10 lower at 1915.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose in a choppy session on Wednesday after lawmakers reached a compromise deal on a $789 billion stimulus package that is seen as crucial to reviving the recession-hit economy.

Stocks had see-sawed during the day, hurt by falling crude oil prices and declines in technology shares before finally holding gains on the stimulus package.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 50.65 points, or 0.64 percent, to 7,939.53. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> climbed 6.58 points, or 0.80 percent, to 833.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 5.77 points, or 0.38
percent, to 1,530.50. 04:28 12Feb09 RTRS-NYMEX-Crude ends lower on big build, demand view

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures tumbled more than 4 percent on Wednesday, weighed down by a large increase in domestic crude stocks last week and a gloomy oil demand forecast from the International Energy Agency.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, March crude settled down $1.61, or 4.29 percent, at $35.94 a barrel, trading from $35.65, a new contract low, to $38.47. The day's low was the lowest since prices hit $32.70 on Jan. 20.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- March down 16 cents to $9.78 a bushel.

Better-than-expected rains in drought-stricken Argentina at mid-week weighed on soybean futures.

Argentine soy production may be higher than expected due to recent rainfall.

CBOT-SOYOIL - March down 0.46 cent at 33.18 cents a pound. Following soy with late drop in crude oil also pressuring.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm futures fell 2.2 percent on Wednesday, easing off one-month highs, as investors booked profits on the previous day's rally with inventory data meeting trade expectations.

The benchmark April contract settled down 44 ringgit at 1,925 ringgit ($533.8), easing from 1,969 ringgit notched the day before, a level unseen since Jan. 12.

Other traded contracts fell between 6 and 44 ringgit while the Sep 2009 contract was unchanged <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was 17,768 lots of 25 tonnes each compared with the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Feb 11 (Reuters)-Asian stocks were pulled down by financials and energy shares, with scepticism rife about the new plan from Washington. Analysts said regional equities would take their direction from
developments in the Chinese economy and U.S. stock markets.

Elsewhere, the Malaysian index <.KLSE> lost 0.7 percent, with Malayan Banking down 2.2 percent and lender CIMB down 1.8 percent.