Wednesday, March 11, 2009

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Malaysia's Feb palm oil stocks down 15 pct-MPOB

KUALA LUMPUR, March 11 - Malaysian crude palm oil stocks in February fell 14.7 percent to 1,561,151 tonnes from a revised 1,829,357 tonnes in January, official crop agency Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said on Wednesday.

Palm oil output was down 10.7 percent in February from the previous month while exports dropped 7.2 percent, the MPOB data showed.

RTRS-Malaysia palm to fall 10 pct on slow demand -Fry

KUALA LUMPUR, March 11 - Malaysian crude palm oil prices will probably drop at least 10 percent in the next 6 months as a worsening global recession reduces food and fuel consumption, senior analyst James Fry said on Wednesday.

"If crude oil stays at these kinds of levels, just below $45, I would see a fall of over 10 percent," Fry told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry seminar. "If crude oil goes down, then the price will fall more." Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures edged lower on Wednesday, with the benchmark May contract down 2 ringgit to 1,993 ringgit per tonne.

Asian palm oil exports set to rise again-Oil World

HAMBURG, March 10- Palm oil exports by key producer Malaysia and its rival Indonesia are set to rise again this season as the global food industry becomes more dependent on palm oil, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Malaysia's October 2008/September 2009 palm oil exports are likely to rise to 15.83 million tonnes from 15.04 million tonnes in the same 2007/08 period, it estimates.

Indonesia's 2008/09 exports are forecast to rise to 15.63 million tonnes from 14.10 million tonnes.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 10 - U.S. stocks posted their best day in four months on Tuesday after Citigroup said it was profitable in the first two months of 2009.

Major indexes jumped off 12-year lows in heavy trading after a key lawmaker said he expected the reinstatement of a rule that makes it harder to bet that a stock will fall.

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 379.44 points, or 5.80 percent, to 6,926.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 43.07 points, or 6.37 percent, to 719.60. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 89.64 points, or 7.07 percent, to 1,358.28.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 10 - U.S. crude futures were lower in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after inventory data from the industry group American Petroleum Institute showed domestic crude stocks fell last week, but gasoline supplies rose, countering forecasts in a Reuters poll.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT), April crude was down $1.49, or 3.17 percent, at $45.58 a barrel. It earlier settled down $1.36, or 2.89 percent, at $45.71, trading from $45.33 to $48.32.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March up 8 cents at $8.89 a bushel. Strength in equities rally soybeans in addition to firm cash markets.

CBOT - SOYOIL
- March up 0.21 cent at 30.72 cents per lb. Spillover support from gains in soy and crude oil.

FCPO - JAKARTA, March 10 - Malaysian crude palm oil rose 2.8 percent to their highest close in three weeks on Tuesday, on the back of strong exports and higher soybean prices, although some late selling took prices off their best, traders said.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange climbed 55 ringgit, or 2.8 percent, to 1,995 ringgit ($541) per tonne, coming off an intra-day high of 2,010 ringgit.

REGINOAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 10 - Singapore shares gained nearly 2 percent on Tuesday as beaten bank shares recovered some of their recent losses, while other Southeast Asian markets were mixed, reflecting concern over the global financial crisis.

Singapore's Straits Times Index closed up 1.98 percent, recouping part of a 5.3 percent loss in the past three sessions, with Southeast Asia's biggest bank, DBS Group, which fell to a 10-year low on Monday, up 4.7 percent.

Thai stocks climbed 1.5 percent, Indonesia was up 1.1 percent and Vietnam shares rose for a second day, adding 1.6 percent.

However, Malaysia ended 0.35 percent lower and the Philippine index fell for a third day, down 0.92 percent at its lowest since March 4.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended generally higher on strong export and supportive external vege oil market

Palm oil futures ended generally higher on strong export and supportive external vege oil market. Steady overnight NYMEX crude oil coupled with the release of strong export data for the period of 1-10 Mar by private cargo surveyor ITS (an increase of 11.2%) prior to market open sent Benchmark May09 to gap up RM40 higher at 1980 during opening bell. FCPO prices had then rose steadily through out the rest of the day until it hit intra day high of 2010 in the second session, despite the second private cargo surveyor SGS reported a mere increase of 1.2% of export data. The emerged of some profit taking activities in late trading saw Benchmark May09 to ease off slightly and settle RM55 higher at 1995. Supportive external factors had also helped lifting the CPO market sentiment. Both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm edged up higher for more than 2%. Traders were also anticipating some good comments from the top industry analyst in tomorrow’s long awaited Price Outlook Conference. World renown vegetable oil speaker Mr. Dorab Mistry in a sideline interview said Malaysian end stocks may draw down to 1.5 million tones also had added the market sentiment.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

RTRS:Malaysia to spend billions more in new budget

KUALA LUMPUR, March 10 - Malaysia's government is to announce it will spend billions of dollars to help prop up the economy when it sets out new spending measures on Tuesday, a source familiar with the government's plans said.

The source told Reuters that Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak would set out spending worth "much, much more than the 10 billion (ringgit) we announced last week" but did not provide a precise figure.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 9 - U.S. stocks fell in choppy trade and the Nasdaq slid to a fresh 6 and 1/2-year low on Monday as shares of the biggest drugmakers fell after Merck's proposed a $41 billion takeover of Schering-Plough.

Large mergers and acquisitions are generally viewed as a show of support for equity valuations. But analysts said with major indexes trading around 12-year lows, evidence of thawing credit markets and economic recovery is needed to bring investors back into the market.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 79.89 points, or 1.21 percent, to 6,547.05. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 6.85 points, or 1.00 percent, to 676.53. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 25.21 points, or 1.95 percent, to 1,268.64.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 9 - U.S. crude futures ended higher for the second session in a row on Monday, amid jitters following a Chinese-U.S. naval incident, supportive technicals and expectations OPEC may lower output targets again.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled up $1.55, or 3.41 percent, at $47.07 a barrel, trading from $44.97 to $48.83.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March up 2 cents at $8.81 a bushel. Strong U.S. and South American cash markets amid tight soy stocks and slow farmer selling supporting futures, with front month taking the lead. March/May spread firm. Midwest basis bids firm early Monday along with soy CIF values at the U.S. Gulf.

CBOT - SOYOIL - March up 0.25 cent at 30.51 cents per lb, Support from gains in soybeans and crude oil.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
- BANGKOK, March 9 - Singapore shares fell for a third session on Monday, ending at the lowest in nearly six years as banks DBS Group and UOB dropped, while battered bank and energy shares helped pull the Thai market down 2 percent.

Singapore's benchmark stock index closed down 3.7 percent at its lowest since July 2003, with Southeast Asia's largest lender, DBS Group , sliding 6.5 percent and United Overseas Bank off 7 percent.

Friday, March 6, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures rallied strongly on pre-weekend covering.

Palm oil futures rallied strongly on pre-weekend covering. Benchmark May09 had been well supported in the early trade and hovered between 1905-1895 level through out the morning session after it opened almost unchanged at 1902. As Monday market will be closed for Muslim religious holiday, short covering activities began to emerge ahead of long weekend saw CPO prices started to gain momentum in the afternoon session. Benchmark May09 rallied strongly to the high of 1955 before it finally settled RM34 higher at 1940. While traders were waiting for some fresh news from the upcoming Price Outlook Conference on next week, the release of statements made by Thomas Mielke had also helped to boost the buying sentiment in CPO market. Mr. Mielke had said that Asian palm output growth will be slowed and German power producer were seen buying more palm oil for electricity generation.

RTRS:Asian palm output growth slows as yields taper off

KUALA LUMPUR, March 6 (Reuters) - Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's top palm producers, will see only a small rise in output this year due to tree stress after months of good harvests and less fertiliser usage, a top industry analyst said on Thursday.
Indonesian output of the tropical oil was expected to rise 7.9 percent to 20.6 million tonnes while Malaysian production was seen rising slightly to 17.9-18 million tonnes, said Thomas Mielke, head of German oilseeds research group Oil World.
The Malaysian forecast is higher than the 17.6 million tonnes Mielke forecast in November, and up from the 17.7 million tonnes produced in 2008.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 5 - U.S. stocks slid on Thursday with the Dow and S&P falling to 12-year lows as General Motors' warning of possible bankruptcy and concerns about the
banking system's fate reinforced investors' reluctance to take on risk.

The previous session's rally proved fleeting as worries about the financial system's health hit bank stocks again and investors focused on the possibility that troubles in the finance arm of widely held General Electric could lead to a debt rating downgrade for the entire company.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 281.40 points, or 4.09 percent, to 6,594.44. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 30.32 points, or 4.25 percent, to 682.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 54.15 points, or 4.00 percent, to 1,299.59.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 5 - U.S. crude futures ended almost 4 percent lower on Thursday as Wall Street losses mounted, raising fresh concerns about oil demand in a slowing economy a day after a nearly 9 percent rally.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled down $1.77, or 3.9 percent, at $43.61 a barrel, trading from $42.86, breaking support at $43.50, to a high of $45.70.

CBOT - SOYBEANS
- March down 13 cents at $8.62-1/2 a bushel. Firm dollar, lower crude oil and drop in U.S. stock market lending pressure in addition to a low soy number in USDA's weekly export sales report. Market on edge amid ongoing conflict between Argentine government and farmers.

CBOT - SOYOIL - March down 0.30 cent at 30.44 cents a pound. Lower crude oil and drop in U.S. stocks leading to weakness in soyoil futures.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 5 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures traded slightly higher on Thursday as investors waited for more leads, beyond taking positions on strong crude oil and the higher U.S. soybean complex.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 4 ringgit at 1,906 ringgit ($511.5) per tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 5 - Singapore stocks fell 1.7 percent on Thursday, weighed down by losses in index heavyweight DBS Group and other bank shares, and other Southeast Asian markets ended off their highs after early optimism faded.

Singapore's benchmark index turned lower after a 1 percent rise on Wednesday, with the region's biggest bank, DBS , extending its fall for a fifth day, down 2.1 percent, and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp dropping 3 percent.

Elsewhere, Malaysia's index gained 0.27 percent, the Thai index inched down 0.18 percent and Indonesia's drifted 0.1 percent lower.

Trader's Comment: Market ended in a positive territory after trading in a mix tone.

Market ended in a positive territory after trading in a mix tone. Benchmark May09 rallied to hit intra day high at 1923 in the early trading after opened almost unchanged at 1904, tracking the overnight positive closed of CBOT soy complex and the strong rally in NYMEX crude oil. However, CPO prices then eased off to intra day low of 1890 due to lack of follow through buying activities and thereafter hovering in that range for the rest of the day until it finally settled RM4 higher at 1906. Steady underlying physical prices had underpinned CPO market today. Generally, the overall market was still remained in the broad range between 1800-1950 level. Players were still cautiously awaiting for new direction ahead of the upcoming Price Outlook Conference which will be held in Kuala Lumpur next week (10-12 Mar).

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Trader's Comment: CPO futures recouped its previous losses and rallied strongly to end above 1900 level.

CPO futures recouped its previous losses and rallied strongly to end above 1900 level. Benchmark May09 was well supported and had been hovering between the tight range of 1870-1860 level through out the morning session. It hit intra day low at 1856 but immediately bounced back again and closed at 1864 before lunchtime. News released by Reuters poll stating that palm oil stocks may fall 8.6% to 1.67 million tones (16 month low) had succeeded in gaining back the confidence of traders as they previously were in fear of facing higher end stock level. Furthermore, the bullish sentiment in external market also helped to boost more buying activities in CPO market. Both eCBOT soy oil and Dalian palm had rose steadily, while regional equity market also recovered from yesterday’s heavy losses. Benchmark May09 started to gain momentum after second session resumed and rallied strongly until it finally settled RM47 higher at 1902 after it hit intra day high of 1910.

RTRS:Informa raises Argentine soy forecast

CHICAGO, March 4 - Analytical firm Informa Economics raised its forecast for Argentina's 2008/09 soybean crop to 44.5 million tonnes, from 43.75 million, to reflect increased plantings, trade sources said on Wednesday.

In contrast, Informa cut its Brazilian soy estimate to 57.5 million tonnes, from its previous estimate for 58.5 million, due to lower-than-expected yields in the soy state of Parana.

Informa officials had no comment on the numbers.
USDA is currently estimating the Argentine soy crop at 43.80 million tonnes and Brazilian soy output at 57 million.

Drought to cut Argentine corn 36 pct, soy 10 pct

BUENOS AIRES, March 4 - Lack of rain will cut Argentina's 2008/09 soy output 10 percent from the previous season to 41.7 million tonnes, according to a special report from the Rosario Grains Exchange on Wednesday.

Corn production in the South American country will be down 36 percent in the 2008/09 season to 14 million tonnes, the report said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 4 - U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday, ending a five-day losing streak, as another Chinese stimulus package boosted commodity prices and encouraged
investors to jump into energy and natural resource shares.

News that China will increase spending on infrastructure and manufacturing drove oil and metals prices higher, helping to underpin the market after it hit a 12-year low a day earlier. Data also suggested China's economy is recovering.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 149.82 points, or 2.23 percent, to 6,875.84. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 16.54 points, or 2.38 percent, to 712.87. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped 32.73 points, or 2.48 percent, to 1,353.74.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 4 - U.S. crude futures ended nearly 9 percent higher on Friday, rallying on government data showing a surprise drawdown in domestic crude supplies last week and not the increase forecast by analysts.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled up $3.73, or 8.96 percent, at $45.38 a barrel, the highest since the $45.73 settlement on Jan. 26. It traded from $41.04 to 45.76, the highest since Jan. 27's $47.49.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March up 12-1/2 cents at $8.75-1/2 a bushel. Following stock market and crude oil with tight cash soy markets lending support. No deliveries on the March contract and a conflict between Argentine government and farmers supportive.

CBOT - SOYOIL
- March up 0.55 cent at 30.74 cents per lb. Lifted by higher crude oil, Dow, uncertainty about Argentine exports given farmer-government conflict.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 4 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose 2.53 percent Wednesday, in line with soybean oil and supported by an expected drop in stocks for February.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 47 ringgit at 1,902 ringgit ($512.7) per tonne, reaching a low of 1,856 ringgit and a high of 1,910 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
- BANGKOK, March 4 - Most Southeast Asian stock markets gained on Wednesday, with Singapore bouncing from four-month lows, led by gains in CapitaLand and SingTel, while battered financial shares recovered in Thailand and Indonesia.

Optimism about the Chinese government's efforts to support its economy lifted sentiment in most Asian stock markets, with good buying interest seen in Singaporean firms whose business stands to benefit in China.

Singapore's index climbed 1.04 percent, with top developer CapitaLand surging 5.4 percent and top telecoms firm Singapore Telecommunications rising 3.2 percent.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

RTRS-POLL-Malaysia's palm stocks seen sliding to 16-mth low

KUALA LUMPUR, March 4 - Malaysia's February palm oil stocks probably tumbled 8.6 percent to 1.67 million tonnes, their lowest in 16 months, as output slowed further on floods in key growing regions, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

The stock level is at its lowest since October 2007 and the pace of the fall appeared to gain some momentum as shipments of the vegetable oil fell 10.7 percent to 1.2 million tonnes, moderating from a sharp drop recorded in January, according to a
median estimate of five plantation houses.

"Production in Sabah and Sarawak (state) could have fallen by 15 percent because the heavy rains caused massive floods," said one poll contributor.

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 3 - U.S. stocks fell in volatile trading on Tuesday, with the S&P ending below 700 for the first time since October 1996 as persistent uncertainty about the amount of money needed to shore up the financial system
overshadowed a hunt for bargains.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 37.27 points, or 0.55 percent, to 6,726.02. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 4.49 points, or 0.64 percent, to 696.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 1.84 points, or 0.14 percent, to 1,321.01.


NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 3 - U.S. crude futures kept gains of more than $1 Tuesday in post-settlement trading, after the American Petroleum Institute said that domestic crude stocks dropped slightly last week due to lower imports.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, at 4:50 p.m. EST (2150 GMT), April crude was up $1.26, or 3.14 percent, at $41.41 a barrel. It earlier settled up $1.50, or 3.74 percent, at $41.65, seesawing between $39.44 and $42.07.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March up 14-1/2 cents at $8.63 a bushel. Nearby spread firms as prospects for export demand for nearby U.S. soy remain strong given uncertainty over exports out of Argentina.

CBOT - SOYOIL
- March up 0.09 cent at 30.19 cents a pound. Following rally in soybeans. Gains in crude oil also support.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 3 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended down 0.9 percent on Tuesday on soft soyoil but with a weaker ringgit and speculation over stocks data supporting.

U.S. soybean futures rose only half a percent on Tuesday, after falling 3 percent in the previous session, as a deteriorating global economy hit stock markets and crude oil prices.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange went as low as 31 ringgit to 1,840 ringgit ($496.3) per tonne, a level unseen since Feb. 23. The contract then settled down 16 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 3 - Singapore's stock market hit a four-month low on Tuesday, and Malaysia and Thailand also fell, dragged down by further broad losses in Southeast Asian bank shares including DBS Group, Bumiputra-Commerce and Bangkok Bank.

Malaysia's index fell 0.9 percent to its lowest since Dec. 26, with lender CIMB off 0.8 percent. Public Bank fell 1.2 percent and Maybank shed 2 percent.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended lower after a choppy range trading.

Palm oil futures ended lower after a choppy range trading. The concerns of deepening economic crisis and mix tone in other vege oil market had further enhanced the uncertainty in CPO market. Soy oil edged higher in Asian time trading while Dalian palm ended with losses. Regional equity market had continued to fall following the previous session in Wall Street tumbled to a new 12 year low (closed below 7000). Despite the Ringgit getting weaker, the gloomy sentiment in CPO market saw Benchmark May09 to hovered between 1860-1840 level in a choppy manner through out the day. It hit intra day high at 1866 on late trading but eased off to settle RM16 lower at 1855.

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 2 - U.S. stocks slid to 12-year lows on Monday as a record $61.7 billion loss for AIG and another government bailout for the insurer heightened concerns about the extent of the damage to the financial system.

The Dow Jones industrial average slid 299.64 points, or 4.24 percent, to 6,763.29. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 34.27 points, or 4.66 percent, to 700.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 54.99 points, or 3.99 percent, to 1,322.85.

NYMEX - NEW YORK, March 2 - U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 10 percent on Monday, as persistent concerns the deepening economic and financial crisis pushed global equities lower and pulled commodities broadly lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude settled $4.61 lower, or 10.3 percent, at $40.15 a barrel, trading from $39.84 to $44.49.

CBOT - SOYBEANS - March down 26 cents at $8.48-1/2 a bushel. Falling stock market, declining crude oil and firm dollar pressured soybean futures. News China shifting soy buying to South America and away from the U.S. also weighed on soy.

CBOT - SOYOIL - March down 0.75 cent at 30.10 cents a pound. Declining crude oil, lower stock markets and firm dollar weigh on soyoil.

FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 2 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell 1.3 percent on Monday, extending last week's losses as weaker export data sparked some selling late in the session.

The price of the tropical oil -- used in various products from soap to biodiesel -- briefly broke the major resistance level of 2,000 ringgit two weeks ago, but failed to hold above it on demand concerns.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 24 ringgit to 1,871 Malaysian ringgit ($502.6).

REGIONAL EQUITIES - BANGKOK, March 2 - Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday due to growing concern about the global banking system, with Singapore at a four-month low as UOB extended losses after poor results and Maybank among the losers in Malaysia.

Singapore's Straits Times Index closed down 3.9 percent, with United Overseas Bank , the second-largest lender, dropping 7.4 percent after brokers cut their price
targets for the bank following last week's results. The index fell 4.4 percent at one stage to 1,524.28, its lowest since Oct. 28.

Malaysia's benchmark stock index lost 1.6 percent to its lowest since Feb. 5, with Maybank off 2.8 percent at 4.96 ringgit after the top lender announced a larger-than-expected rights issue for $1.62 billion on Friday.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures ended lower on late sell-off after it failed to sustain.

CPO futures ended lower on late sell-off after it failed to sustain. Benchmark May09 open RM14 lower at 1881 following the fall of overnight CBOT soy oil and NYMEX crude oil. It was initially well supported and climbed to intra day high at 1904 before it losing its momentum as it hovered between 1900-1885 level through out most of the sessions. The release of end Feb export data by both private cargo surveyors did not help much in providing further support to the CPO market. Traders began to raise their doubt on the possibility of lower end stock level after ITS and SGS reported a decline of 8.2% and 12.4% respectively. Benchmark may09 finally loosed its ground and encountered some liquidation activities in late trading to settled RM24 lower at 1871 after it hit intra day low of 1868. Gloomy regional equity market also provided some negative sentiment to BMD.