Tuesday, April 10, 2012

RTRS- SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN CROP LOSSES EYED

For soybeans, the ongoing effects of drought in South America remain at the fore. Analysts expect USDA to cut its soybean production estimates for Brazil, Argentina and possibly Paraguay.

As a consequence, the trade also expects USDA to lower its forecast of U.S. 2011/12 soybean ending stocks because the crop losses in South America should steer more export demand to the United States.

USDA in March pegged Brazil's soybean harvest at 68.5 million tonnes, but a report released Wednesday from USDA's attache in Brazil estimated the crop at 66 million tonnes. Attache reports are not official data but can signal moves the USDA might make in its next official forecasts.


The average Brazil soy crop estimate among 14 analysts surveyed by Reuters was 67.1 million tonnes.

USDA currently forecasts Brazil will be the world's biggest soybean exporter in the 2011/12 marketing year, with the United States and Argentina taking the No. 2 and 3 slots.

"There are no bean offers (for export) out of Argentina -- none for any slot. In Brazil, there are still offers, but they have sold so much into the export market that the crusher is getting concerned about the supplies left over," said Roy Huckabay with the Linn Group, a Chicago brokerage.

Along with increased U.S. exports, some analysts expect USDA to raise its estimate of the 2011/12 domestic soybean crush, currently forecast at 1.615 billion bushels. Soy crushers process soybeans into soyoil, which is used in foods and biodiesel fuel, and soymeal, used in livestock feed.

Bill Nelson of Doane Agricultural Services in St. Louis said a larger-than-expected U.S. crush figure reported by the National Oilseed Processors Association in mid-March laid the foundation for larger crush forecasts.

"It's indicative of stronger demand," he said of the monthly soy crush, which NOPA reported at 136.35 million bushels versus trade expectations for 134.5 million.

However, Nelson said soymeal prices have rallied sharply since the NOPA report and could hurt demand down the road.

RTRS- US corn stocks seen dropping to 16-year low

April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. corn supplies are expected to fall to a fresh 16-year low before the fall harvest, said analysts polled by Reuters, signaling there will be razor-thin supplies this year that could stoke food inflation and hurt margins for food companies.

Analysts expect USDA next week to cut ending stocks by 10 percent from its March estimate due to increased demand for feed and ethanol in the wake of a severe drought reducing supplies in South America.

Prices for corn will have to rise in order to dampen demand and preserve enough supplies to be held over into the next crop year in the United States, analysts said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) should confirm that scenario in its supply and demand report due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT (1230 GMT) on Tuesday.

An average of analysts' estimates pegged corn ending stocks at 721 million bushels, a 16-year low and down 80 million bushels from the government forecast in March. Analysts also predict U.S. soybean ending stocks to shrink to 246 million bushels, down 29 million bushels or 10.5 percent from USDA's March forecast of 275 million.

RTRS- Brazil soy crop sales, harvest - Celeres

SAO PAULO, April 9 (Reuters) - Sales of Brazil's 2011/12 soybean crop rose to 70 percent of the total expected production of 67.9 million tonnes, up from 68 percent a week earlier, analysts at Celeres said on Monday.

The harvest is winding down across the main center-west and southern soy belts, where rain has been less than optimal this year and will keep the world's No. 2 soybean producer from
surpassing last year's record harvest of 75.3 million tonnes.

Celeres said the harvest had reached 82 percent of the crop area by April 5, up from 76 percent in the week prior. Last year at this time, 77 percent of the crop had been collected. The No.
1 soybean state, Mato Grosso, has been finished harvesting for weeks.

No. 2 soy state Parana is nearly finished the harvest with 97 percent of its soybean brought in. No. 4 soy state Goias also recently finished with the harvest.

This week No. 3 soybean state Rio Grande do Sul is due to get rain that could slow the harvest. The water will be much too late to help the crop, which is 43 percent harvested. The state has been very dry since November and has lost a large share of its productive potential, which reached a record 11.6 million tonnes last season.

Brazil is the world's second-largest soybean producer after the United States and is expected to surpass it to become the largest exporter of the oilseed this year for the first time since 2005/06.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - The Dow and the S&P 500 extended losses to a fourth day on Monday, as investors took their cues from last week's disappointing jobs report, which raised fresh concerns about the U.S. economy's recovery.

Despite Monday's declines, the Dow industrials and the S&P 500 ended above their session lows. But trading has been choppy in recent weeks, with a series of gains interrupted by a few days of losses.

Banks and industrials led the S&P 500's slide, with the S&P financial sector index <.GSPF> and the S&P industrial sector index <.GSPI> each down 1.6 percent. The two sectors are closely tied to the prospects for economic growth.

The latest jobs figures added to a series of weaker-than-expected indicators, which have taken the edge off a strong multi-month rally.

In addition to the U.S. jobs figures released last week, China's surprisingly soft producer prices data sparked concerns about waning demand in the world's second-largest economy. The country's March PPI data reinforced expectations that a cooling economy has eclipsed inflation as the Chinese government's biggest near-term worry.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 130.55 points, or 1.00 percent, to end at 12,929.59. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 15.88 points, or 1.14 percent, to 1,382.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 33.42 points, or 1.08 percent, to close at 3,047.08.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended lower on long liquidation and profit-taking after the market set a seven-month high and ahead of a monthly U.S. government crop report, traders said.

* Soyoil gained against soymeal on oil/meal spreads.

* Spot soybeans reached $14.46-3/4 a bushel in Globex-only trade overnight, the highest spot soybean price on continuous charts since Aug. 31, 2011.

* CFTC data released Friday showed large speculators held a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans of 206,437 contracts as of April 3, leaving the market open to bouts of
long liquidation. ID:nEMS10XE9J]

* Also, open interest in CBOT soybean futures hit a record-high 779,856 contracts as of Thursday.

* Soy market underpinned by concerns about a shrinking South American soybean harvest and worries that U.S. farmers might not plant enough soybeans this spring to meet global demand.

* Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect USDA in supply/demand reports on Tuesday to lower its forecast of U.S. 2011/12 soybean ending stocks, as well as its estimates of the 2011/12 soy
harvests in Brazil and Argentina. [ID:nL2E8F4A2E]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures eased on Monday, as market players booked profits from a 13-month high hit earlier in the day, with losses capped by expectations of lower stocks due to a shift in demand to palm oil from soyoil, where supply is tightening.

Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue the widely watched stocks data for March on Tuesday. [PALM/POLL]

Palm oil jumped almost 5 percent last week on improved demand following a damaging drought in soy-exporting South America and U.S. data showing farmers will plant less soy this
season, setting the stage for prices to fall back from an overbought position this week, traders said.

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.8 percent lower at 3,575 ringgit ($1,165) per tonne after going as high as 3,623 ringgit, a level not seen since March 8 last year.

Traded volumes stood at 24,548 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will also release Malaysian palm oil exports data for the first 10 days of April on Tuesday. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

REGIONAL EQUITY- April 9 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian markets fell on Monday as concerns over a sharp slowdown in U.S. jobs growth reduced investor appetite for risky assets in the region with Singapore falling to a one-month low in light trading volume.

Singapore <.FTSTI> fell 0.9 percent to hit its lowest since March 7, Indonesia <.JKSE> lost 0.3 percent led by financials with a $9.3 million outflow and Malaysia <.KLSE> ended 0.5 percent weaker to its lowest since March 29.

Bucking the trend, Vietnam <.VNI> closed 0.7 percent firmer. Stock markets in Thailand <.SETI> and the Philippines <.PSI> were closed for a holiday.

Monday, April 9, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures closed lower on Friday in brief, holiday-thinned trading after a much weaker-than-expected report on U.S. job growth for March.

Trading volumes were light because of the Good Friday holiday and market closings in Europe. S&P 500 futures fell 1.2 percent, suggesting a weak open on Monday as the cash market is closed Friday.

U.S. payrolls grew by 120,000 in March, worse than the forecasted gain of 203,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dipped to 8.2 percent, down from 8.3 percent in February. [ID:nL2E8F5338]

The weak payrolls report could renew hopes for more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve. This week's release of minutes from its March meeting suggested less of an appetite for more stimulus despite committee members expressing worries about the sluggish pace of U.S. growth.

U.S. equities have rallied sharply in recent months, gaining nearly 30 percent since early October to push the S&P 500 near four-year highs. The market has stalled in the last few weeks as investors question the swiftness of the gains and whether economic data is strong enough to warrant higher stock prices.


S&P 500 futures fell 16.20 points to 1374. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1 percent, or 31.25 points, to 2722.75 in thin trading. Dow futures dropped 137 points, or 1.1 percent, to 12,841.


FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 6 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a near 13-month high on Friday, as traders continued to bet on strong demand ahead of key industry data due next week.

Palm oil recorded its best weekly performance since December with an almost 5.0 percent gain in response to a damaging South American drought and U.S. data showing farmers will plant less
soy, shifting demand for the tropical oil.

"The USDA report was the main driver. So far palm oil exports have also been holding up quite well, and the next official data on the 10th (of April) will be another key," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.

"Market players are still worried about stocks, and hopefully demand has grown strong enough to offset any increase in stocks."

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 1.3 percent higher at 3,604 ringgit ($1,165) per tonne after going as high as 3,607 ringgit, a level not seen since March 9 last year.

Traded volumes were thin at 18,810 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots, as most financial markets were closed for the Good Friday holiday.

Friday, April 6, 2012

RTRS-Tugboats free grains ship blocking Argentine river

BUENOS AIRES, April 5 (Reuters) - Tugboats in Argentina's main grains export route managed on Thursday to dislodge a boat that ran aground three days ago, delaying at least 85 ships, a shipping industry group said.

The stranded vessel was preventing ships from leaving or entering the country's grains export hub, the port of Rosario. Argentina is one of the world's biggest suppliers of grains and harvesting is underway.


The Samjohn Liberty, being used by Louis Dreyfus to ship 48,000 tonnes of soymeal to Poland, ran aground on Monday about 150 kilometers (93 miles) from Rosario and tugboats were dispatched to help dislodge it.[ID:nL2E8F49D2]

Guillermo Wade, an official at the CAPyM shipping chamber, said traffic on the Parana River should soon be able to resume normal activity.

Port traffic picks up at this time of year as soy and corn harvesting gather speed in the South American country, although drought damage means soy and corn production look set to fall this season.

Earlier this year, a stranded boat disrupted shipping for almost two weeks before it could be freed. [ID:nL2E8CU6QX]

RTRS-US corn stocks seen dropping to 16-year low

April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. corn supplies are expected to fall to a fresh 16-year low before the fall harvest, said analysts polled by Reuters, signaling there will be razor-thin supplies this year that could stoke food inflation and hurt margins for food companies.

Analysts expect USDA next week to cut ending stocks by 10 percent from its March estimate due to increased demand for feed and ethanol in the wake of a severe drought reducing supplies in South America.

Prices for corn will have to rise in order to dampen demand and preserve enough supplies to be held over into the next crop year in the United States, analysts said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) should confirm that scenario in its supply and demand report due out at 7:30 a.m. CDT (1230 GMT) on Tuesday.

An average of analysts' estimates pegged corn ending stocks at 721 million bushels, a 16-year low and down 80 million bushels from the government forecast in March.

Analysts also predict U.S. soybean ending stocks to shrink to 246 million bushels, down 29 million bushels or 10.5 percent from USDA's March forecast of 275 million.

RTRS-Brazil 11/12 soybean output down on drought

April 4 (Reuters) - Following are selected highlights from a report issued by a U.S. Department of Agriculture attache in Brazil:

"Post estimates drought-reduced soybean production in 2011/12 at 66 million tonnes on 25 million hectares and exports at 29 million tonnes. The La Nina weather phenomenon brought a significant drought to southern Brazil resulting in an 11 percent reduction in 2011/12 crop from earlier estimates of 75 million tonnes.


Post forecasts 2012/13 soybean production at a record 77 million tonnes on an increased total area of 26 million hectares. Domestic demand for soybean oil is forecast to increase by 250,000-280,000 tonnes in 2013, should the Government of Brazil increase the biodiesel blend mandate to 7 percent from 5 percent."

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - The euro hit a three-week low against the dollar and bonds edged higher on Thursday as Spain's debt burden fueled worries of further problems for euro zone economies and curbed appetite for riskier assets.Global stocks dipped, while energy and gold prices climbed.

A poor Spanish bond auction on Wednesday added to worries the impact of the European Central Bank's one trillion euro injection of cheap three-year funds into the banking system may be coming to an abrupt halt.

Spanish 10-year government bond yields rose as high as 5.86 percent on Thursday, dragging Italian rates in their wake as investors fled to the relative safety of German and U.S. debt.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 14.61 points, or 0.11 percent, at 13,060.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 0.88points, or 0.06 percent, at 1,398.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 12.41 points, or 0.40 percent, at 3,080.50.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Thursday after two straight days of losses as data showing a drop in U.S. jobless claims combined with uncertainty about supply disruptions to prompt short-covering ahead of a long
holiday weekend.

Data showing initial jobless benefits claims fell to the lowest level in nearly four years last week arrived a day ahead of the closely watched U.S. March nonfarm payrolls report, expected to show a gain of 203,000 jobs, including a rise in
private payrolls. [ID:nL2E8F51OP] [ID:nL2E8F3COO]

The West's tightening sanctions hampering Iran's oil exports and the uncertainty ahead of talks on Tehran's disputed nuclear program expected to be held at midmonth also helped support crude prices.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude rose $1.84, or 1.81 percent, to settle at $103.31 a barrel, having traded from $101.37 to $103.40.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher on Thursday on concerns about the size of South America's soy harvest and positioning ahead of a three-day U.S. holiday weekend, traders said.

* U.S. grain markets will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

* Strong weekly U.S. export sales added support. USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1,112,900 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), above a range of trade estimates for 600,000 to 850,000 tonnes.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures were barely changed at the close of trading on Thursday, after gaining more than 3 percent in the last three sessions, as demand hopes stemming from worries about tighter soybean supply
continued to support prices.

Palm oil touched a near 13-month high in the previous session on expectations that global oilseed supply will tighten after a U.S. Department of Agriculture planting report showed farmers will plant less soybeans in coming months.

"The market is trading in a very tight range after a strong rally. On the local front, market players are looking out for April export numbers next week," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 1 ringgit higher at 3,558 ringgit ($1,161) per tonne. Prices touched a high of 3,574 ringgit on Wednesday, a level not seen since March 9 last year. Traded volumes were light at 20,806 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 5 (Reuters) - Stocks in Thailand and Malaysia retreated in light trade on Thursday amid profit-taking in big caps like as banks, but bargain hunting in beaten-down growth stocks lifted Indonesia.

Thailand's benchmark SET index <.SETI> ended down 1.3 percent at 1,182.41, falling at one point to 1,177.83, the lowest since March 16. The Thai market is shut on Friday and Monday for a holiday and trading will resume on Tuesday.

Singapore's main share index <.FTSTI> was nearly flat while Malaysia's main index <.KLSE> edged down 0.36 percent ahead of three day weekend, both reopening on Monday.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell for a second day on Wednesday as investors contemplated a world without monetary stimulus and a poorly received bond auction in Spain suggested the effects of Europe's funding operations were
waning.

Selling was broad as indexes tracking nine of the 10 S&P 500 sectors ended lower, with financial, materials and technology shares the worst performers. The S&P's financial index fell 1.6 percent. Shares of Morgan Stanley , often sensitive to concerns over Europe, dropped 3.5 percent to $18.69.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 124.80 points, or 0.95 percent, at 13,074.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 14.42 points, or 1.02 percent, at 1,398.96. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 45.48 points, or 1.46 percent, at 3,068.09.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell a second straight session on Wednesday, dropping more than 2 percent after a government report showed crude oil inventories last week rose much more sharply than expected in the United
States.

Concerns about downside risks to the euro zone economic outlook expressed by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pressured the euro to its lowest level against the dollar in three weeks, adding to the pressure on oil.

A stronger dollar can pressure dollar-denominated oil by making it more expensive for consumers using other currencies.

Wednesday's push lower came after the previous day's losses on indications from the U.S. Federal Reserve that the central bank was less inclined to implement any more monetary stimulus.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude fell $2.54, or 2.44 percent, to settle at $101.47 a barrel, a penny below the 100-day moving average, and having
traded from $101.08 to $104.12.

CBOT SOYBEANS- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher
after a back-and-forth session, lifted by concerns about shrinking crops in South America, traders said.

Trading was choppy, with soybeans falling at times on profit-taking after the market hit a seven-month high on Tuesday. Front-month May traded lower for most of the last 10 minutes of the session but rallied near the closing bell.

Informa Economics lowered its forecast of Brazil's soybean crop to 66.5 million tonnes, from 68 million previously, and cut its Argentine soy crop forecast to 45 million tonnes, from 47.5 million previously.

A firmer dollar hung over the market. Minutes from the latest U.S. Federal Reserve meeting published Tuesday suggested further monetary stimulus action was unlikely, a factor that lifted the dollar and made risky assets such as commodities less
attractive.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures climbed to an almost 13-month high on Wednesday, as traders continued to bet on a brighter demand outlook for palm oil following expectations of a smaller soybean crop in coming
months.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a much-anticipated report on Friday that farmers would plant less soybean than expected, indicating global oilseed supply will tighten further and helping palm oil cross the psychological
3,500 ringgit mark.

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.7 percent to close at 3,557 ringgit ($1,161) per tonne. Prices went to 3,574 ringgit, a level not seen since March 9 last year.

Traded volumes stood at around 20,989 lots of 25 tonnes each, lighter than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 4 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks retreated on Wednesday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested dwindling chances for more policy stimulus, dampening the prospect of more inflows to the region, while
losses in mining stocks pulled down Indonesia.

Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE>, which closed at a record high on Tuesday, dropped 1.9 percent, with the Jakarta Mining Index <.JKMING> falling 1.7 percent after the government unveiled plans to impose export taxes on coal and base metals.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

RTRS-UPDATE 2-Informa sees higher US corn, soy acreage than USDA

CHICAGO, April 3 (Reuters) - Informa Economics Chief Executive Officer Bruce Scherr said on Tuesday that the firm has raised its forecast of U.S. 2012 corn plantings to 96.4 million acres, from 95.5 million in its previous estimate released March 9.

Speaking at a conference in Chicago, Scherr also said Informa lowered its forecast of U.S. 2012 soybean plantings to 74.2 million acres, from 75.1 million previously.

The firm's acreage figures for both crops are above the latest numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which last week projected U.S. 2012 plantings of corn at 95.9 million acres and soybeans at 73.9 million acres.

If realized, USDA's corn projection would mark the most U.S. acres planted to corn in 75 years. Given favorable weather this spring and summer, the crop could help replenish U.S. corn inventories that are expected to drop to a 16-year low this summer.

Farmers had responded to more favorable projected returns for corn during the winter months by earmarking more acres for the crop. Although soybean prices have rallied in recent weeks, soybean prices need to rally to a larger premium over corn to entice producers to switch to planting the oilseed, Scherr said.

"We were running our calculations early on with a $120 premium for (the return on) corn over soy per acre. We're now down to maybe no advantage for corn, but it doesn't lend for putting in more bean acres," he said on the sidelines of the State of Agribusiness conference.

"It's going to have to go the other way and we haven't seen it happen yet. In fact, the market action right after the USDA report (on March 30) didn't give that much more of an advantage to beans when it was all said and done," he said.

The ratio of new-crop November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade over new-crop December corn , which traders normally monitor to gauge the acreage battle, widened to 2.51-to-1 after the report and peaked at a high of 2.54-to-1 this week before pulling back.

Planting is off to a good start. USDA reported that 3 percent of the U.S. corn crop had been seeded as of Sunday, matching the fastest pace on record, as farmers took advantage of unusually warm weather in March to get a jump on field work.

Soybeans are typically planted after corn.

RTRS--BRAZIL'S 2011/12 SOY CROP SEEN AT 65.2 MLN T VS 67.1 MLN T MARCH VIEW - AGROCONSULT

SAO PAULO, April 3 (Reuters) - Drought over Brazil shrunk the world's second-largest soybean crop to an estimated 65.2 million tonnes this 2011/12 season, down from 67.1 million tonnes forecast in March, local crop analysts Agroconsult said on Tuesday.

Brazil put out a record harvest of 75.3 million tonnes of soybeans last season. Strong exports of the 2010/11 crop late last year will likely allow Brazil to displace the United States as the largest exporter of the world's most important source of protein.

RTRS-South American soy crop outlook worsens- Oil World

HAMBURG, April 3 (Reuters) - Soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil have suffered from more poor weather and harvest forecasts for the two countries may have to be cut by a combined 2-3 million tonnes, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

"New reports have been received confirming additional crop losses, further eroding the potential South American export supplies of soybeans and products," Oil World said.

"The South American supply situation could really become serious and exports of soybeans and products may be forced to decline significantly in Sept. 2012/Jan. 2013."

There are new indications that drought in parts of Argentina has created irreversible soybean crop damage, it said.

On March 20 Oil World had reduced its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop by 0.5 million tonnes to 46.5 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million in 2011.

The United States is the world's largest soybean producer followed by Brazil with Argentina in third place.

"We may be forced to shave 1.0 to 1.5 million tonnes off our Argentine soybean crop estimate," Oil World said.

On March 20 Oil World also cut its forecast of Brazil's 2012 soybean crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 66.5 million tonnes compared with 75.3 million tonnes in 2011 because of drought and crop fungus.

Oil World said there is a risk it may have to cut the Brazilian estimate by a further 1.0-1.5 million tonnes because of low yields achieved so far in Brazil's harvest after drought.

U.S. soybean prices touched new six-month highs on March 26 on expectations drought damage to South American soybean harvests would transfer global import demand to the United States and rose again on Friday following U.S. planting estimates

"The additional (South American) supply reductions are likely to keep soybean prices well supported and probably trigger an renewed upturn in coming weeks," Oil World said.

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Argentine soy, corn output seen lower - Rosario

BUENOS AIRES, April 3 (Reuters) - Argentina's biggest grains exchange slashed its forecast for 2011/12 soy production to 43.1 million tonnes on Tuesday as the extent of drought damage becomes clearer, especially in northern provinces.



Rosario grains exchange said acute damage to crops in Tucuman, Salta, Chaco and Santiago del Estero had led it to cut its previous forecast for production of 44.5 million tonnes.


"The reductions as a result of dryness are very significant in those areas," the exchange said in a report.


Argentina, the world's No. 3 soy supplier and the top exporter of soybean oil and meal, was hit by dry weather during sensitive crop development stages in December and January.


While rains have brought relief to many growing areas since then, damage in the worst-hit regions has dimmed overall harvest prospects, Rosario's report said, estimating the average yield at 2.3 tonnes per hectare.


It also lowered its outlook for 2011/12 corn production a shade to 19.7 million tonnes from 19.8 million tonnes previously. Average yields were estimated at 5.5 tonnes per hectare.


Argentina is the world's second-biggest corn provider after the United States and farmers had initially hoped for a record crop this season until the dry spell struck.

Trader's Highlight

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - World stocks fell and gold prices dropped 2 percent o n Tuesday as minutes from the latest U.S. central bank meeting showed policymakers may be less willing to launch further economic stimulus.

The dollar rose 1 percent against the yen, while safe-haven bonds slid. Federal Reserve policymakers, in their March meeting minutes, noted recent signs of slightly stronger growth but remained cautious about a broad pick-up in U.S. economic activity.

Still, the minutes suggested the appetite for another dose of stimulus via quantitative easing, so-called QE3, has eased.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 64.94 points, or 0.49 percent, to end at 13,199.55. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 5.66 points, or 0.40 percent, at 1,413.38, retreating from a four-year high.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Tuesday as worries about lackluster demand and fading prospects for more monetary stimulus from the U.S. central bank countered concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Federal Reserve policymakers appear less inclined to implement any more monetary stimulus as the U.S. economy gradually improves, according to minutes for the central bank's March meeting.

Oil prices also felt pressure from news that, according to industry sources, Saudi Arabia is likely to maintain high oil production in the event consumer countries release strategic oil reserves.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude fell $1.22, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $104.01 a barrel, having traded from $103.59 to $105.18.

CBOT SOYBEANS- Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell, on a
profit-taking setback after the spot contract earlier hit a seven-month high, traders said.

CBOT soybeans had increased 4.8 percent in the previous two sessions.

Soymeal followed soybeans lower on profit-taking and some reports of a softening cash soymeal basis in the U.S. Midwest following a pickup in farmer soybean sales in recent days.

Informa Economics CEO Bruce Scherr said the firm lowered its forecast of U.S. 2012 soybean seedings to 74.2 million acres, from 75.1 million previously. But the figure was above USDA's current 2012 forecast of 73.9 million. [ID:nL2E8F386T]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures touched their highest in more than a year on Tuesday, riding on the back of a smaller soybean crop and recovering palm oil exports, but ended the day almost flat, as traders scrambled to lock in profit.

Prices touched a high of 3,566 ringgit, a level unseen since March 9 last year, driving traders to book profit, and erasing gains after the midday break.

"Today the market volume's a bit light, at around 20,000 lots," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "There's a bit of profit-taking going on after palm oil broke a new high."

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange eased 1 ringgit to close at 3,532 ringgit ($1,160) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at around 20,406 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 3 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks finished mostly higher on Tuesday and both Indonesia and Malaysia hit all-time closing highs as further signs of economic recovery in the United States bolstered sentiment in the region.

Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> climbed 1.2 percent to a record high of 4,215.44, led by a 39 percent gain in PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk , also the most actively traded stock on the bourse.

Shares in Indonesia's sixth-biggest lender surged after a $7.2 billion takeover bid by Singapore's DBS Group.

DBS shares, the most actively traded on Singapore's bourse, fell 2.8 percent, dragging the city-state's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> 0.04 percent lower and erasing early gains.

Monday, April 2, 2012

RTRS-US corn stocks plummet, supply squeeze tighter

US corn stocks down 38 pct from Dec 2011 March 1 stocks 2 pct smaller than expected Soybean stocks up 10 pct from year ago Soy stocks 1 pct smaller than trade expected

WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn stockpile is down 8 percent from a year ago, the government said on Friday, with consumption running faster than traders expected.

The corn stockpile is forecast to shrink to 801 million bushels by the end of this marketing year on Aug 31, for the smallest tally in 16 years. The new government report pointed to a bare-bones supply when the fall harvest begins.

In a quarterly report, the Agriculture Department said there were 6.009 billion bushels of corn in storage as of March 1, 2 percent less than traders expected. Some 3.6 billion bushels were consumed during the quarter, equal to 30 percent of the 2011 crop.

Traders estimated consumption would be 4 percent smaller than USDA estimated. USDA surveyed 84,500 growers and all 8,900 commercial storage facilities to develop its figures.

Soybean stocks were estimated by USDA at 1.372 billion bushels, up 10 percent from one year ago but 1 percent smaller than traders expected. Some 994 billion bushels were consumed since Dec 1.

Wheat stocks totaled 1.201 billion bushels, according to USDA, down 16 percent from a year ago and 2 percent less than traders expected.

RTRS-US corn plantings reach 75-year high, top expectations

USDA survey estimates 95.9 million acres of corn *Soybean, spring wheat acres seen down from last year

WASHINGTON, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers say they will plant 95.9 million acres of corn this spring to cash in on strong prices, a 75-year high that tops expectations due to surprise reductions in soybean and spring-wheat plantings.

An annual prospective plantings survey by the U.S. Department of Agriculture found farmers will plant record amounts of corn in Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Idaho. Nationally, the plantings outlook is up 4 percent from last year and above analyst expectations for 94.72 million acres.

Soybean plantings are expected to fall 1 percent from last year to 73.9 million acres, increasing concerns about tightening global supplies of the oilseed due to poor harvests in South America. Analysts had expected soy plantings to increase to 75.393 million acres.

"Acreage is expected to shift to corn," the USDA said.

Farmers are focusing on corn because prices remain historically high after reaching a record high last year on strong demand that drained supplies. The increase in plantings should help boost supplies, which are forecast to drop to the lowest level since the mid 1990s by the end of the crop's marketing year in September.

If USDA's forecast is realized, it will be the most corn planted since 1937, when an estimated 97.2 million acres were planted.

UDSA estimates farmers will plant 12 million acres of spring wheat other than durum, with a record low number of acres seeded in South Dakota. That is down 3 percent from last year and below the average trade estimate of 13.313 million acres.

USDA's estimate for total wheat planted area of 55.9 million acres is up 3 percent from 2011 but well below the average analyst estimate of 57.422 million acres.

Growers intend to plant 13.2 million acres of cotton, down 11 percent from last year, and 2.56 million acres of rice, down 5 percent.

The acreage estimates imply a corn harvest of 14.5 billion bushels, a soy harvest of 3.2 billion bushels, wheat harvest of 2.1 billion bushels and cotton harvest of 18 million bales, according to Reuters calculations that assume a normal number of abandoned acres and normal weather and yields.

RTRS-UPDATE 1-China 2011/12 soy imports seen up 8.9 pct y/y -CNGOIC

BEIJING, March 30 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, is expected to import about 57 million tonnes of the oilseed in the year to Sept. 30, up 8.9 percent from the previous year, according to the latest estimate from an official think-tank.

Chinese crushers have increased imports to meet robust demand from the livestock breeding sector as the industry has also expanded crushing capacity this year.

The estimate from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) is higher than a projection for 55 million tonnes by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

"China's imports in the coming months will increase significantly," and crushers will step up purchases of cargoes for July-October delivery following the weakening of Chicago Board of Trade soy prices <0#SOY:>, it said.

So far, crushers have booked only 20 to 30 percent of their normal needs for the period, the center said in a report. See www.grain.gov.cn

U.S. soy prices slipped for the third day in a row, notching their biggest weekly slide in two months, as investors also chose to exit some of their record long holdings in the oilseed in broad-based, risk-off dealings before Friday's U.S. government crop report. [GRA/]

The center expected soy arrivals in May to peak at 5.8 million tonnes, the highest monthly import since June 2010, while imports for March-April would exceed 4 million tonnes.

"We also think the USDA forecast is low. China has expanded its crushing capacity quite a lot this year and the government has increased imports for its state reserves," said a trading manager at a state-owned trading house.

State-owned COFCO Co Ltd maintained its earlier forecast of as much as 58 million tonnes for 2011/12 at a conference this week, in line with an earlier estimate by a company executive.[ID:nL3E7ME09F]

Some Chinese buyers have shifted to importing from the United States for May-July shipments, the peak sales season for the South American crop due to port congestion in Brazil, the world's top soy exporter, traders said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - World stock markets advanced on F riday, posting double-digit gains for the quarter, as economic reports showing U.S. consumer spending and sentiment still on the rise helped buoy stock prices and undercut the desire to hold bonds.

U.S. government debt prices fell, marking the end of a tumultuous first quarter for Treasuries, marked by their worst three-month period since the fourth quarter of 2010.

But stocks on Wall Street ended their strongest quarter in more than two years. Investors flocked to consumer-oriented shares after data showed U.S. consumer spending rose by the most in seven months in February and consumer confidence rebounded to its highest in more than a year in March.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 66.22 points, or 0.50 percent, to 13,212.04. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> gained 5.19 points, or 0.37 percent, to 1,408.47. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> dipped 3.79 points, or 0.12 percent, to 3,091.57.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up on Friday on ongoing concerns about Iran and supply disruptions, improved consumer sentiment and a weak dollar, as oil prices posted a 4.2 percent gain in the first quarter.

Crude futures' trading trajectory was choppy and prices jumped late in the session after the Obama administration said there is enough global oil supply to allow countries to cut imports from Iran.

U.S. President Barack Obama was required by law to determine by March 30, and every six months after that, whether the price and supply of non-Iranian oil are sufficient to allow consuming nations to "significantly" cut their purchases from Iran.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude rose 24 cents, or 0.23 percent, to settle at $103.02 a barrel, having traded from $102.78 to $104.15.

CBOT SOYBEANS- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher after U.S. Department of Agriculture's U.S. 2012 soybean plantings figure came in below trade expectations.

Soymeal and soyoil also ended higher.

USDA reported U.S. 2012 planting intentions at 73.902 million acres, below a range of trade estimates for 74 million to 76.7 million.

USDA confirmed sales of 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2012/13.

ICE Canada canola futures surged about 2.4 percent and hit a 13-1/2-month high on Monday following the release of USDA's U.S. planting intentions figures.

Some U.S. analysts noted that the CBOT new-crop soybean/corn ratio has surged in favor of soybeans this month, a factor that could encourage more soybean acres in the coming months.

USDA reported U.S. March 1 soybean stocks at 1.372 billion bushels, roughly in line with the average trade estimate of 1.387 billion.

China, the world's top soy importer, is expected to import about 57 million tonnes of the oilseed in the year to Sept. 30, up 8.9 percent from the previous year, according to the latest estimate from official think-tank CNGOIC. The estimate is higher than USDA's forecast of 55 million tonnes.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, March 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended its losing streak into a third day on Friday, as traders grew cautious ahead of a key U.S. report on soybean plantings and stocks, although healthy demand for the edible oil
curbed losses.

Palm oil futures started the week strongly, going close to 3,500 ringgit on expectations of a shift in demand to the tropical oil as soybean supplies were tight in drought-hit South America.

But some gains were given up later on in the week as market players took profit ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's quarterly inventory report and planting forecast due later in the day.

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.7 percent to close at 3,433 ringgit ($1,121) per tonne. This week the market went as high as 3,497 ringgit, a level unseen since March 10 2011.

Traded volumes stood at 21,018 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- March 30 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets mostly gained on Friday to end the first quarter on a strong note, with Malaysian equities closing at a record high on strong foreign inflows and shares in Indonesia climbing to an eight-month top.

Despite volatility in the markets on concerns over slowing economic growth in China and the United States, the region witnessed strong foreign inflows for the week with Malaysia leading, followed by Indonesia.

Malaysia, the worst performing bourse in the region so far this year with a 4.29 percent return, saw 1,339.97 million ringgit ($436.83 million) in foreign inflows for this week.

Foreign investors in the past have been interested mostly in Malaysia's government securities, but now are turning their attention to equities, said Gerald Ambrose, managing director, at Aberdeen Asset Management in Malaysia.

Friday, March 30, 2012

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Morgan Stanley closes CBOT soy long recommendation

CHICAGO, March 29 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley is ending its recommendation to hold a long position in Chicago Board of Trade November soybean futures due to concerns that an upcoming U.S. Agriculture Department report could send a bearish shock to the market, the investment bank said on Thursday.

"The response to a bearish surprise tomorrow could be much larger than to a bullish one," analyst Hussein Allidina said in a note to clients.

Large speculators recently built a record long position in CBOT soybeans, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, showing that the market is primed for a sell-off if the government report on planting and supplies comes in higher than expected, the note said.

The managed money's large net position also indicates little upside potential in the event of a bullish report.

Morgan Stanley initiated the long recommendation in November 2010, when the November soybean contract was trading at $11.31 a bushel. November soybeans were down 9-1/2 cents a bushel at $13.11 in Thursday afternoon trading.

November soybeans have risen nearly 9 percent so far this year as the market has attempted to buy acres from corn

USDA will release its prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks report on Friday morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT (12340 GMT).