Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled to the lowest level in two months on Tuesday as new questions emerged over Europe's ability to fend off a deeper crisis in the debt-stricken region.

The S&P 500 fell through April lows, which traders had seen as technical support, and hit bottoms from early March. The move was part of broad run to safety. Yields on German debt hit a record low while oil fell for a fifth straight day.[MKTS/GLOB]

"For the past six weeks or so, what's been really holding us is the earnings. Now that big earnings are out, the focus is back to Europe, at least in the short-term," said Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service & Associates Inc in Exton, Pennsylvania.

"A break below the recent trading range suggest that if we get a pullback, we could go below our 200-day moving average of about 1,275 which is down about 8-10 percent from here."

Elections in France and Greece appeared to herald a new era of opposition to government austerity and added to concern about economic growth in the United States and China.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 136.16 points, or 1.05 percent, at 12,872.37. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 13.15 points, or 0.96 percent, at 1,356.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 28.40 points, or 0.96 percent, at 2,929.36.

Market losses mirrored trading in Europe where the FTSEurofirst <.FTEU3> closed down 1.7 percent. French and UK stocks as measured by the CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 turned negative for the year.

Leftist leader Alexis Tsipras began efforts to form a Greek government by renouncing the terms of an international bailout and threatening to nationalize banks. [ID:nL5E8G80YO]

Meanwhile, the threat of a Franco-German split over policies to tackle the region's debt crisis loomed after anti-austerity Socialist Francois Hollande was elected French president. [ID:nL5E8G7EA3]

"This is dragging the situation out even longer and makes it less likely that the progress that has already been made will continue," said Mark Foster, who helps manage $500 million at Kirr Marbach & Co in Columbus, Indiana.

While Foster said the weakness has created some bargains, "a lot of major U.S. companies have a lot of exposure to Europe and we may continue seeing that weakness show up here."

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell for the fifth straight day on Tuesday as Europe's political and economic troubles deepened on post-election uncertainty in Greece and worries about growing U.S. stockpiles persisted, both raising more concerns about oil demand.

Front-month U.S., crude ended at its lowest level since February and posted its biggest five-day loss since October, with no respite in sight as euro zone debt troubles continue and U.S. weekly inventory data was forecast to show the sixth straight week of increases in crude oil stockpiles.

Greece sank deeper into crisis when the Leftist candidate for prime minister set conditions for a new coalition which the biggest party said would destroy the country. [ID:nL5E8G80YO]

Adding to Greece's troubles, The European Central Bank will not renegotiate the nation's bailout package and there are no alternatives to sticking with it if it wants to stay in the euro zone, ECB Executive Boarde member Joerg Asmussesn was quoted as saying. [ID:nL5E8G7DE2]

In post-settlement trading, U.S. crude extended losses after the industry group American Petroleum Institute said that domestic crude stocks jumped 7.8 million barrels in the week to May 4, nearly four times the forecast for a 2.0 million increase in a Reuters poll of analysts. [API/S] [EIA/S]

Distillate stocks fell 2.7 million barrels, countering the forecast for a 100,000 barrel rise and gasoline stocks plunged 5.0 million barrels, leaving in the dust expectations for a 100,000 barrel decline.

Refinery utilization rose 1.1 percentage points, the API said, far more than the forecast for a 0.3 percentage point increase.

Traders await the weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, considered more comprehensive than the API's, on Wednesday morning for a further guidance of fundamentals.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June delivery settled at $97.01 a barrel, falling 93 cents, or 0.95 percent, the lowest front-month settlement since Feb. 6.

* In five days, front-month crude tumbled $9.15, or 8.62 percent, the biggest five-day loss for U.S. front-month crude since Oct. 4, 2011, when prices fell 10.4 percent, according to Reuters data.

* Oil production from non-OPEC nations will average 52.6 million barrels per day this year, 100,000 bpd lower from the DOE's previous forecast. U.S. oil production will average 6.2 million bpd this year, 500,000 bpd higher from last year, the DOE also said. [ID:nL1E8G89LI]

* Tankers carrying Alaska North Slope oil to the U.S. West Coast are returning with some crude still on board because refinery shutdowns have cut demand, a BP Plc spokesman said. [ID:nL1E8G86E3]

* Iran is accepting payments in yuan for some of the crude oil it supplies to China, the Iranian ambassador the United Arab Emirates said. [ID:nL5E8G84OM]

* India's crude oil imports from Iran declined by about 34 percent in April compared with March, deeper than expected and the first sign of New Delhi implementing cuts in supplies from the sanctions-hit Islamic republic. [ID:nD8E8ET01O]

* Sudan's crude oil production at the Heglig oilfield will increase to 80,0000 barrels per day, from a current capacity of about 55,0000 bpd, and exploration deals for six blocks will be signed soon as it moves to make up for a big loss in oil exports, its oil minister said. [ID: nL5E8G8BAI]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a second straight session on fund long liquidation, with spillover weakness from U.S. crude oil futures and equity markets adding pressure, traders said.

* July soymeal fell more than 2 percent, its biggest decline in three months, while July soyoil fell 0.5 percent.

* Funds held a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans as of May 1, the latest weekly U.S. CFTC data showed, leaving the market vulnerable to periodic long liquidation, particularly ahead of USDA's May 10 supply/demand report.

* Traders unwinding long soy/short corn spreads as well as long old crop/short new crop soybean bull-spreads.

* Market still under pressure from last week's key reversal to the downside in most-active July soybeans .

* China sold 68,328 tonnes of soy from state reserves at a regular auction on Tuesday, the largest volume since late 2010, as lower state prices prompted crushers to stock up on the oilseed. [ID:nL4E8G816A]

* USDA confirmed sales of 225,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, including 60,000 for delivery in 2011/12 and 165,000 for 2012/13. USDA also confirmed sales of 40,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown destinations for 2012/13. [ID:nW1E8EM018]

* Oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop to 41.0 million tonnes, down 1.5 million from its previous forecast because of drought damage. [ID:nL5E8G85U2]

* Taiwan's BSPA bought a total of 120,000 tonnes Brazilian soybeans in two tenders, European traders said. [ID:nL5E8G862F]

* Favorable U.S. crop weather adds pressure. USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 24 percent planted, up from 12 percent a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 11 percent. [US/SOY]

* Workers at leading grains export ports in Argentina will go on strike on Thursday and blockade soy-crushing plants unless their minimum wage is hiked to reflect brisk inflation, a union spokesman said. [ID:nL1E8G8A4I]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Tuesday, as investors fretted over the growing uncertainty in the euro zone after key elections and the weak U.S. economic data that cast doubts over the state of global economy.

Elections in France and Greece that produced changes in the political scene that may endanger austerity measures in the euro zone and disappointing U.S. jobs data pushed prices to a low at 3,311 ringgit on Monday, a level last seen on March 12.

Palm oil market pulled back before the midday break but bearish sentiment eventually dominated the market, paring gains this year to 5.5 percent.

"Cloudy outlook on formation of new governements in Europe still haunts market sentiment," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"This selloff towards the end is likely to be shortlived as bullish expectation is growing on the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) and USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) planting report due Thursday."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.3 percent to close at 3,351 ringgit ($1,097) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 32,797 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil will end its rebound in a resistance zone of 3,388-3,412 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL4E8G82KP]

But palm oil fundamentals look healthy as cargo surveyor data showed a strong export growth in April, which could have pushed palm oil stocks to a one-year low.

Market consensus showed that April stocks should continue to stay below the psychological 2-million-tonne mark, a Reuters median survey showed on Monday. [ID:nL4E8G79FP]

But some traders said that prices will likely not go up on expectation of lower stocks as it has already been priced in.

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks on Thursday.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 8 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets rose moderately on Tuesday as investors selectively bought into blue-chip firms, including Thai consumer and telecoms stocks after their strong quarterly results, bu t commodities-related shares fell along with the weak oil market.

Uncertainty over the implications of the Greek and French elections for Europe's efforts to resolve its debt crisis weighed on sentiment in the region, pushing the main Thai SET index <.SETI> and the Philippine index <.PSI> to a one-week low at one point.

Thai stocks edged up 0.3 percent to 1,231.04 on Tuesday while Philippine shares rose 0.24 percent to 5,242.06 on the session.

The region saw mixed fund flows, with Malaysian bourse taking in 35.78 million ringgit ($11.7 million) of foreign inflows while Indonesia posted $30 million of foreign outflows, according to Thomson Reuters and stock exchange data.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - Investors brushed off Europe's election results, as the S&P 500 rebounded from early losses to end nearly unchanged on Monday, despite the uncertainty surrounding the euro zone's ability to tackle its debt crisis.

U.S. financial stocks, normally highly sensitive to events that could unsettle the euro zone's fiscal stability, were not only the biggest gainers, but had the heaviest volume.
"One positive thing we are seeing out of the elections and we are hearing from the ECB chairman is a focus on growth and that austerity measures alone are not going to get them out of this crisis," said Sean Lynch, global investment strategist for Wells Fargo Private Bank in Omaha, Nebraska.

"So if there are more growth-oriented measures, that could help the banking system and could be a positive for the economy as well."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> slipped 29.74 points, or 0.23 percent, to 13,008.53 at the close. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> inched up just 0.48 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,369.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 1.42 points, or 0.05 percent, to 2,957.76.

The election results from Europe initially roiled futures markets on Sunday night, but markets were able to rebound. Greeks voted to cast out ruling parties in elections on Sunday, dealing a blow to the fragile political consensus that has kept Europe's currency bloc intact through more than two years of crisis.

In France, Socialist Francois Hollande won the presidency over incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy, raising pressure on Germany to pursue a more growth-oriented approach to the regional crisis. [ID:nL5E8G69GS]

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged lower on Monday in choppy trading after European election results revived worries about the region's debt woes and contracting economy.

Socialist Francois Hollande's victory in France's presidential election signaled a push back against German-led austerity policies. [ID:nL5E8G6A7] [ID:nL5E8G7DE2]

Greece's election created uncertainty over whether formation of a new government is possible and a first attempt failed on Monday. [ID:nL5E8G707V]

Crude prices posted a fourth straight lower settlement, but crude bounced after slumping intraday to multimonth lows that prompted buying by bargain hunters.

Europe's latest turmoil was judged not to be an immediate threat to the economies of China and India, the key sources of oil demand growth.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell 55 cents, or 0.56 percent, to settle at $97.94 a barrel, having dropped to $95.34, the lowest intraday price since Dec. 20. Monday's intraday peak was $98.24.
* Greece might run out of cash by end-June if it does not have a government in place to negotiate a next aid tranche with the EU and the IMF and projected state revenues fall short, three finance ministry officials told Reuters on Monday. [ID:nL5E8G7D89]

* Raising OPEC's output target is not on the exporting group's agenda for now but probably will be, Algerian Energy and Mines Minister Youcef Yousfi said. OPEC is scheduled to meet next on June 14 in Vienna. [ID:nL5E8G71MM]

CBOT SOYBEAN-May 7 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell on Monday, joining a commodities sell-off after Greek and French election results undermined confidence in Europe's plans to tackle its debt crisis, traders said.

* Weekend rains across much of the U.S. Midwest crop belt added pressure, bolstering prospects for bin-busting corn and soybean crops this autumn.

* Ahead of USDA's weekly crop progress report due out later on Monday, a Reuters poll of analysts projected U.S. soybean planting progress at 22 percent complete, ahead of the typical pace for this time of year. [ID:nL1E8G77Y6]

* USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 9.992 million bushels, below trade expectations for 14 million to 18 million.

* USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2011/12. [ID:nL1E8G745M]

* Brazil grain analyst Celeres cut its forecast for the country's 2011/12 soybean crop to 64.95 million tonnes, from its early April estimate of 67.9 million. [ID:nL1E8G7FC7]

* Farmers in Argentina's Buenos Aires province will halt grains and livestock sales for four days starting Thursday to protest a planned tax hike, but exports should not be affected, an agricultural leader said. [ID:nL1E8G7FLC]

* Large speculators added to their net long position in CBOT soybeans in the week ended May 1, raising it to a fresh record high, according to CFTC's supplemental report. [ID:nL1E8G4LD4]

* CBOT reported 13 deliveries against May soybeans, no soymeal deliveries and 947 soyoil deliveries.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended higher on last-minute buying on Monday, reversing losses from an 8-week low as election results in Greece and France threatened to undermine austerity measures aimed at preventing the euro zone debt crisis from spreading.

French voters ousted incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in a presidential election on Sunday while the first Greek election since the euro zone debt crisis threatened to put the country's bailout programme at risk. [ID:nL5E8G6A7][ID:nL5E8G600O]

But concerns of the market being oversold after hitting a low at 3,311 ringgit -- a level last seen on March 12 -- prompted traders to go bargain hunting after the midday break.

"Looking at the overall scenario, the market has potentially penciled in all the possible bearish sentiments, so we anticipate a recovery in prices soon," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched up 0.1 percent to close at 3,360 ringgit ($1,101) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 23,092 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil will fall to 3,253 ringgit per tonne based on technical analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao, adding that the contract may hover around 3,325 ringgit on Monday and plunge to 3,253 ringgit on Tuesday. [ID:nL4E8G749J]

Yet palm oil fundamentals look healthy as the latest export data showed that shipments jumped by almost 10 percent, signalling robust demand for the edible oil from Asia.

Market players have shifted their focus to Malaysian exports for the first 10 days of May, in which an improvement could boost demand outlook for the edible oil. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

High exports last month could have pushed palm oil stocks to a one-year low despite the higher production growth, a Reuters median survey showed on Monday.[ID:nL4E8G79FP]

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks on Thursday.

REGIONAL EQUITY- May 4 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday with Singapore's sharemarket losing more than 2 percent as risk averse investors sent regional benchmark indices lower following elections in Europe and weak U.S. jobs data that signalled a tepid recovery.

Singapore's Straits Times index <.FTSTI> fell 2.2 percent, to its lowest level in a month and tracking a similar drop for the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan <.MIAPJ0000PUS>.

Heavyweights CapitaLand Ltd fell 5.4 percent while shipping firm Neptune Orient Lines shed 4 percent.

Indonesia's Jakarta Composite <.JKSE> slipped 1.4 percent, retreating further from the record high it hit last Thursday.

Vietnamese stocks were outperformers on the day, rising 2.1 percent, helped by foreign buying after the government announced measures late last week to support domestic companies, including a cap on lending rates. [ID:nL4E8G79DQ]

Monday, May 7, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended its worst week this year with a sharp selloff on Friday after a slowdown in job creation in the world's top economy raised the biggest question mark yet about the prospects for U.S. growth.

Employers reduced hiring for the third straight month, adding 115,000 workers in April, well below forecasts of 170,000. Traders' expectations had fallen during the week, but the softer jobs number missed even more pessimistic forecasts.

"When we entered the second quarter, we thought it would be a consolidation/correction quarter for the market simply because it was overbought, over-believed, and we saw economies were not improving, and that is still the case," said Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist of Robert W. Baird & Co in Nashville.

Investors were also cautious ahead of elections in France and Greece over the weekend as European policymakers struggle to bring an end to their debt crisis and people rebel against the strain of austerity measures. [ID:nL5E8FNASP] [ID:nL5E8G40O9]

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 168.32 points, or 1.27 percent, to 13,038.27 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 22.47 points, or 1.61 percent, to 1,369.10. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> fell 67.96 points, or 2.25 percent, to 2,956.34.

The selloff came on the highest volume in two weeks. Around 7.02 billion shares were traded on the NYSE, the Nasdaq and the NYSE Amex, above the daily average of 6.76 billion. On the NYSE, decliners outnumbered advancers by a ratio of 3 to 1. On the Nasdaq, four stocks fell for every one that rose.
 
With this week's retreat, much of the S&P 500's gains fromthe move off the April closing low at 1,358.59 have been erased. The market has found support around that level in the past, but a breach there could take it back to 1,340.

Also dampening the mood on Friday, surveys showed the euro zone's economy worsened markedly in April and suggested a recession may be deeper than previously thought. The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> slid 1.7 percent to close at 1,027.15. [.EU][ID:nL4E8G4567]

"People were too optimistic about Europe. They felt the recession was going to be shallow and short, and I felt it would be deep and long, and that is still my posture," Bittles said.

Russian shares plunged 4 percent, wiping out this year's gains in the benchmark MICEX index, as demand for risk assets waned and oil prices hit the rouble currency.

The Russian stock market is the only one of the BRICs countries to be in the red for the year. With this week's retreat, much of the S&P 500's gains from

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell nearly 4 percent on Friday as data showing weakening job growth in the United States added to concerns about slowing economic activity.

U.S. employers cut back on hiring in April and more people stopped looking for work, adding to worries about slowing economic growth. [ID:nL1E8G43V1]

Employers added 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Labor Department said, well below economists' expectations. The unemployment rate ticked down by a tenth of a point to a three-year low of 8.1 percent, but only because a drop in the number of people hunting for jobs shrank the labor force.

Confusion of upcoming margin changes at the CME Group's New York Mercantile Exchange and technical selling after U.S. crude fell back under $100 a barrel and Brent crude fell below its 200-day moving average also helped pressure oil prices, analysts and brokers said.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell $4.05, or 3.95 percent, to settle at $98.49 a barrel, after trading from $97.51 to $102.72.

* For the week, NYMEX crude fell $6.44, or 6.1 percent, the biggest weekly percentage loss since the week to Sept. 23, when prices fell 9 percent.

CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher Friday on export demand and spillover support from corn that helped the market shake off early weakness tied to sharp declines in U.S. crude oil, traders said.

* Soymeal posted the biggest gains in the soy complex, with most-active July meal rising $6.20 a ton, or 1.5 percent, to end unofficially at $432.60 a ton. July meal gained more than $3 against December on spreads.

* Soyoil fell on meal/oil spreading and spillover weakness from U.S. crude oil futures, which fell more than 4 percent and dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-February.

* Spot soybean futures unofficially ended the week down 1.5 percent, halting a five-week rally.

* U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed sales of 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery. [ID:nL1E8G43AT]

* Informa Economics projected U.S. 2012 soybean plantings at 75.822 million acres, up from its previous forecast of 74.2 million.

* Informa predicted a jump in South American soybean production in the next crop year, projecting the 2012/13 Brazilian soy crop at 80.5 million tonnes and the 2012/13 Argentine soy crop at 60 million tonnes.

* Canadian stocks of canola fell to a four-year low at 4.7 million tonnes by March 31, according to a Reuters poll of 13 traders and analysts ahead of Monday's Statistics Canada stocks report. [ID:nL1E8FUEOE]

* CME Group was granted a 90-day reprieve from imposing new rules that will hike margins for some exchange members by as much as a third. Traders said the postponement was supportive to grain and oilseed markets. [ID:nL1E8G414O]

* Wet weather will slow corn and soybean seedings in the U.S. Midwest for the next couple of days, followed by drier and cooler but not cold weather. "The forecast looks good for crops in general. There will be rain in most of the Midwest the next three to four days, then drier for the rest of next week," said John Dee, meteorologist for Global Weather Monitoring.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Friday, touching a six-week low at 3,335 ringgit, the steepest weekly loss since November, as investors remain worried about the health of the global economy.

Global investors are keeping a close watch on U.S. jobs data, due to be released at 1230 GMT, to help them gauge the outlook for the global economy and commodity demand. [ID:nL1E8G1E9I]

"Fundamental strengths are being ignored. This is a technical speculative sell down. Besides, uncertainties surrounding elections in Europe over the weekend dampened any huge position holding," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.6 percent to close at 3,358 ringgit ($1,115) per tonne. The contract ended the week with a 4.2 percent loss, its worst performance since November 2011.

"Price corrections are taking place here but I see it as healthy because the market has been going up too fast. It will probably be over soon as demand is still strong. If next week's

MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) and exports data continue to be supportive, the market will rebound pretty quickly," said another trader with a local commodites brokerage in Malaysia.

Traded volumes stood at 31,440 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil will fall to 3,325 ringgit per tonne, a break below which will open the way towards 3,253 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao based on technical analysis. [ID:nL4E8G412S]

On the fundamentals side, palm oil demand remains healthy as indicated by cargo surveyor data. April exports jumped by 9.4 and 10.4 percent from a month ago, according to Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

Demand from major importers China, India and Europe picked up, helping to push up shipments of the edible oil.

Traders are now watching output numbers in No.2 producer Malaysia for more clues on April palm oil stock levels. Higher demand and a lower output will eat into palm oil stocks, which fell below 2 million tonnes in March, and push up palm oil prices.

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks next week.

Oil slipped under $116 per barrel on Friday, ahead of a U.S. payrolls report, and was poised for its steepest weekly fall since December due to concerns over the health of the global economy and easing fears over supply disruption. [O/R]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 4 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Friday, with Thailand led down by index heavyweight energy shares such as PTT Pcl , amid concerns over the health of the global economy and caution ahead of a U.S. payrolls report.

The Philippine index <.PSI> inched down 0.05 percent at 5,297.55, slightly coming off a record closing high of 5,300.41 on Thursday.

Bucking the trend, Malaysia's main index <.KLSE> extended its gain for a fourth session, ending up 0.5 percent at 1,591.04 on Friday. The Malaysian bourse said foreign investors bought shares for 118 million ringgit ($38.92 million) on the day.

Friday, May 4, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as economic data sent mixed signals on the recovery a day before the April payrolls report, while shares of Green Mountain plunged after poor results.

Slower-than-expected growth in the dominant U.S. services sector drove the day's trading. The retail sector dragged the market lower after several chains, including Target Corp and Gap Inc , fell after missing April sales estimates. Market expectations for Friday's non-farm payrolls report have fallen this week. Traders now suspect the economy added 125,000 to 150,000 jobs in April, below a Reuters consensus forecast of 170,000. One trader said there had even been some talk of a number below 100,000.

Ryan Larson, head of equity trading at RBC Capital Management, said muted reactions to recent signs of economic weakness suggest some investors are counting on more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve if the data gets worse.

"You are going back to 'bad numbers are good numbers'," he said, referring to the latest change in Wall Street's perception of discouraging data. "The market will believe that (Fed Chairman) Bernanke & Co will have to step in."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 61.98 points, or 0.47 percent, to 13,206.59 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 10.74 points, or 0.77 percent, to 1,391.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 35.55 points, or 1.16 percent, to 3,024.30.

Initial jobless claims posted their biggest weekly drop since May 2011 and countered Wednesday's weaker report on private-sector hiring. [ID:nOAT3GE83T]

The Institute for Supply Management's report on Thursday showed the pace of growth in the large U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in April, with drops in both new orders and employment. That was in contrast to the ISM's report on Tuesday, which showed U.S. manufacturing activity picked up in April.[ID:nL1E8G34DG]

"This is a continuation of the volatility and fits and starts we've seen in economic data, and that's causing investors to take a wait-and-see attitude before tomorrow," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive of Horizon Investment Services LLC in Hammond, Indiana.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell for a second straight day on Thursday, tumbling more than 2 percent on data indicating slowing economic growth and on increased OPEC production that the group's secretary general said is intended to curb high prices.

Friday's closely watched U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report is forecast to show the economy added 170,000 jobs. That would be a rebound from the addition of a meager 120,000 jobs in March. [ID:nL1E8G1MO3]

OPEC's secretary general said the group is working hard to bring down oil prices and is pumping much more than its official target even as exports from cartel-member Iran dwindle. [ID:nL5E8G358A]

Higher crude production from Saudi Arabia and data showing U.S. crude inventories have risen six straight weeks have helped pull crude futures back from 2012 peaks reached in the first quarter.
* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell $2.68, or 2.55 percent, to settle at $102.54 a barrel, the biggest one-day percentage loss since Dec. 14, 2011. The $102.36 intraday low was a penny below the 100-day moving average (MA). Crude peaked on Thursday at $105.42.

* The five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council put pressure on Iran to allay international concern about its nuclear program, and said they expected talks with Tehran to lead to concrete steps toward a negotiated solution. [ID:nL5E8G39E0]

* The UAE's oil pipeline for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz is complete and exports are expected to start within three months, UAE Oil Minister Mohammed al-Hamli said. [ID:nL5E8G3FNB]

* Seaborne oil exports from OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will fall by 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the four weeks to May 19, UK consultancy Oil Movements said in its latest weekly estimate. [ID:nL5E8G3HSN]

* Crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, oil hub rose by 1 million barrels from April 27 to May 1 to hit a fresh record, according to a report by industry data provider Genscape. [ID:nL1E8G3EAV]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures fell 0.8 percent, hitting a one-week low on long liquidation and bearish chart signals, traders said.

* Nearby contracts posted the biggest losses as traders unwound long old crop/short new crop spreads.

* Most-active July soybeans posted a chart reversal on Wednesday, setting a contract high but closing below the previous day's low, a factor that prompted follow-through selling on Thursday.

* Commodity funds hold a record net long in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market open to bouts of long liquidation.

* Soyoil futures felt additional pressure from 2.5 percent decline in U.S. crude oil futures.

* Market underpinned by tightening global soy supplies. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange lowered its forecast of Argentina's 2011/12 soybean harvest to 41 million tonnes, from 43 million previously. [ID:nE6E7N6058]

* CIF soybean basis bids at the U.S. Gulf were mostly steady to firm, underpinned by good export demand from China which bought more new-crop supplies overnight, traders said.

* Deliveries on CBOT May soybeans totaled 40 contracts; no deliveries on May soymeal and 1,462 contracts delivered on May soyoil.

* USDA's weekly export sales report showed net export sales of U.S. soybeans last week at 1,732,000 tonnes, above estimates for 1,000,000 to 1,500,000 tonnes. [ID:nIGB03ED70]

* USDA confirmed sales of 232,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13. [ID:nC3E7N602M]

* Some Chinese soy crushers could turn to cheaper government stockpiles as Chicago Board of Trade prices soar and supplies from South America dwindle, traders in Beijing said. [ID:nL4E8G34JK]

* CME Group said it would delay an expansion in electronic trading hours for grains by one week, starting with trading date May 21. [ID:nL4E8G37SJ]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures extended losses to a six-week low on Thursday, as disappointing economic data from the United States and Europe cast doubts on global economic recovery and commodity demand.

Palm oil futures ended at 3,370 ringgit, a level last seen on March 23, as investors reacted to a slew of data that signalled stagnant hiring and weak manufacturing activity. [ID:nL1E8G1KLS][ID:nL5E8G223R]

"It's very much the global sentiment. Fundamentally palm oil is still bullish because supply is still facing issues. The tree stress is already confirmed, so the next catalyst will be the Malaysian Palm Oil Board numbers," said Alan Lim, research analyst with Kenanga Investment Bank in Kuala Lumpur.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 2.4 percent lower at 3,370 ringgit ($1,111) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 33,591 lots of 25 tonnes each, way higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Traders are now looking at production numbers for clues on market movement as strong exports in April failed to lift the market. Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks next week.

Lower output will further eat into palm oil stocks, which fell below 2 million tonnes in March.

Demand for the edible oil seems to be healthy as indicated by cargo surveyor data. April exports jumped by 9.4 and 10.4 percent from a month ago, according to Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

On the technicals front, a bearish target for palm oil at 3,397 ringgit has been revised lower to 3,370 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL4E8G315X]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 3 (Reuters) - Philippine stocks hit an all-time high on Thursday spurred by optimism over the economy and strong earnings outlook of a consumer conglomerate.

But markets elsewhere in Southeast Asia posted modest gains because of concerns over the strength of global growth.

The Philippine main index <.PSI> ended up 1.37 percent at 5,300.41. Shares in food-to-property firm Alliance Global Group Inc were among actively traded, gaining 3.1 percent.

"I think the market optimism was about the first quarter GDP growth which market is expecting the figure to be higher than consensus," said a Manila-based trader.

"Consumer conglomerate earnings are standing out and there's a good buying interest in the sector today," he said.

According to Thomson Reuters data, the Manila bourse had steady foreign inflows so far this week, taking in $230 million on Wednesday when the main stock index also finished at a record closing high.

Thursday, May 3, 2012

RTRS- SocGen ups 2012 soybean price forecast

May 2 (Reuters) - Societe Generale on Wednesday lifted its 2012 soybean price forecasts saying the continued declines in South American production have rapidly depleted both the U.S. and global soybean inventories.

The French bank raised its average 2012 soybean price forecast to $14 per bushel from $12.50 a bushel.

"We continue to expect soybean prices to peak in Q2-12, assuming normal weather during the US growing season this summer," SocGen said in a research note to clients.

Given the precariously tight soybean inventories, the bank said it expects the recent price action to continue until more clarity is gained on the state of the U.S. crop.

RTRS- Top U.S. grain group concerned about expanded CBOT hours

CHICAGO, May 2 (Reuters) - Longer trading sessions at the benchmark Chicago grain futures markets will raise costs for U.S. grain merchants and could put some at a competitive disadvantage, the nation's largest grain group said on Wednesday in response the CME Group's plan for 22 hours of trading.

The CME Group on Tuesday said beginning May 14 it will expand grain futures trading to 22-hour sessions, a move it said would give users near round-the-clock access to the markets. The move also would compete directly with the InterContinentalExchange , which will launch competing grain contracts.

The National Grain and Feed Association said there was "significant concern" about the market being open when the U.S. Agriculture Department releases its crop reports.

"In particular, accessing those reports is not generally a quick and simple process," the NGFA said in a statement. "There may be competitive advantages for firms or individuals who are able to access and process report information earlier than others."

A NGFA spokesman was not immediately available to comment on what types of traders would have the advantage on report days, which typically attract the heaviest trading volume and produce the wildest price swings.

The CME's move to 22 hours of trading came shortly after ICE said it will list look-alike wheat, corn and soy contracts that trade on a 22-hour basis.

NGFA, which has thousands of members from grain facilities, food processors, biofuel makers and exporters, also said it would be asking the CME for more details about its plans for price settlement and other matters.

CME has said it will move to a blended settlement procedure, using prices from both pit and electronic trading, beginning in June. The exchange initially planned a transition to the new settlements for both grains and livestock futures in March and April but that plan was met with strong opposition from floor traders.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow edged lower on Wednesday as data showed that private sector hiring fell far more than expected in April, sparking concerns that Friday's U.S. jobs report will also disappoint investors.

Private employers added 119,000 jobs in April, well short of the 177,000 expected, the ADP report showed. That sparked market rumors that Friday's payrolls data will show the economy added just 125,000 to 150,000 jobs last month, well below a Reuters consensus forecast of 170,000.[ID:nL1E8G22DM]

"If fewer and fewer people are participating in this recovery it suggests underlying weakness that we have to address, and so far policymakers' answers have been 'easy credit' - I think we need to go beyond that," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.

The report came on the heels of more glum news from Europe. Euro zone factory activity contracted again last month, with the purchasing managers index, seen as a measure of how the economy will fare, falling to its lowest level since June 2009. [ID:nL5E8G223R]

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 10.75 points, or 0.08 percent, to 13,268.57. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 3.52 points, or 0.25 percent, to 1,402.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 9.41 points, or 0.31 percent, to 3,059.85.

The Dow on Tuesday hit a four-year high on strong manufacturing data, while the S&P 500 has struggled to make a meaningful rise above the 1,400 resistance level. Still, the S&P is up more than 11 percent for the year.

Adding to the negative tone on Wednesday, new orders for U.S. factory goods in March recorded their biggest decline in three years, even though they slightly topped forecasts. [ID:nCAT2GE847]

"What the market needs is a sign that the economy is not getting worse. Yes, the growth is slow, but it's still there," said Ralph Edwards, director of derivatives sales and trading at ITG in New York.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Wednesday, pressured by data showing rising crude oil inventories and by weak economic data from the United States and Europe that reinforced concerns about demand for petroleum in a global economic slowdown.

U.S. crude inventories rose a sixth straight week, to the highest level since 1990, adding 2.84 million barrels in the week to April 27, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. [EIA/S]

Expectations in a Reuters survey of analysts was for a rise of 2.5 million barrels.

More pressure on oil was provided by a government report showing new orders for U.S. factory goods in March recorded their biggest decline in three years. The Commerce Department said orders for manufactured goods dropped 1.5 percent after a revised lower 1.1 percent rise in February. [ID:nCAT2GE847]

Oil received pressure early from news that the euro zone's manufacturing sector slipped further into decline last month as a downturn appears to be taking root among core members France and Germany, a survey showed.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell 94 cents, or 0.89 percent, to $105.22 a barrel, the 50-day moving average for front-month crude, having traded from $104.91 to $106.05.

* Iran said it would seek an end to sanctions over its nuclear activities at talks with big powers later this month and it sought to turn the tables on its Western foes by accusing France of helping Israel develop "inhumane nuclear weapons." [ID:nL5E8G29P4]

* Saudi Arabia repeated on Wednesday that it would not tolerate threats to the Gulf Arab states' sovereignty, the latest warning to Iran after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to an island claimed by both Tehran and the United Arab Emirates. [ID:nL5E8G2H29]

* An oil products tanker collided with a floating offshore drilling rig as it headed inbound in the Aransas Pass Channel near Corpus Christi on the Texas Gulf Coast, the U.S. Coast Guard said. [ID:nL1E8G2KV9]

* Russian oil production edged down 0.3 percent to 10.33 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, to its lowest this year, after Gazprom trimmed output due to a refinery maintenance closure, energy ministry data showed. [ID:nL5E8G20Z1]

CBOT SOYBEAN- May 2 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday on technical selling including long liquidation and pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, traders said.

* Most-active July soybeans fell nearly 1.3 percent, the biggest drop in six weeks, and fell below Monday's low in the final minute of trade.

* Funds hold a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market open to periodic bouts of long liquidation.

* Continued soybean deliveries weigh on nearby contracts, pressuring old crop/new crop spreads. CBOT reported 576 deliveries against the May contract.

* The U.S. dollar index <.DXY> rose, indicating less investor appetite for risky assets such as commodities, after weak data on euro zone manufacturing and U.S. private-sector hiring fueled concerns about a global economic slowdown. [MKTS/GLOB]

* Societe Generale lifted its average 2012 soybean price forecast to $14 a bushel, from $12.50, saying the continued declines in South American production have rapidly depleted both the U.S. and global soybean inventories. [ID:nL4E8G29PD]

* USDA confirmed sales of 204,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2012/13 and sales of 30,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to China for delivery in 2011/12. [ID:nW1E8FB03O]

* CME to expand CBOT grain and oilseed trading hours on its electronic Globex platform beginning on May 14. [ID:nWNAB5908]

* Soggy weather for at least the next 10 days in the U.S. Midwest will slow corn and soybean seedings but add valuable moisture to soil. "It looks like pretty narrow window of opportunities for planting for the next 10 days," said Jason Nicholls, meteorologist for AccuWeather.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged lower on Wednesday as expectations of higher production offset strong exports and an uptick in global economic activity.

Strong factory activity data from the United States signalled the world's biggest economy was on a recovery track, although palm investors are looking at other cues in a market that has traded in a tight range for two weeks. [ID:nL4E8G130T]

"Exports were strong but that is not the only factor. When exports were down 15 percent in the middle of April, the market also didn't respond very strongly," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.

"All these things have an impact on futures prices, but people are also looking at the bigger picture."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched down 0.6 percent to close at 3,452 ringgit ($1,140) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 27,369 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

The focus for palm oil has now shifted to production, which is expected to be pick up in April compared to a month ago, traders said.

"We have exports which were up by 10 percent. So since the futures prices are not going up, there is an expectation that production will also be up by a double-digit percentage," said a Singapore-based trader with a commodity house.

Traders earlier feared that export demand for Malaysian oil will be down due to Indonesia's lower export tax for refined palm oil.

Yet April exports jumped by almost 10 percent from a month ago, thanks to strong demand from major food buyers China and India. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]

Malaysia's policy response to Indonesia's favourable tax structure may come after the government lists its plantation assets in a $3 billion IPO, said top industry analyst Dorab Mistry. [ID:nL3E8FR5L3]

Palm oil will fall to 3,397 ringgit per tonne based on technical analysis, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL4E8G21PZ]

Oil eased on Wednesday, as weak economic data in Europe hit the demand outlook, countering more positive figures from China and the United States. [O/R]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 2 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Wednesday, with benchmark indexes in the Philippines and Indonesia rising to all-time highs, as strong

U.S. economic data boosted investor appetite for risky assets, particluarly the region's energy and commodities stocks.

Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> ended at 4,219.3, surpassing its previous record reached on April 3, while the Philippine index <.PSI> finished at 5,228.84.

Thai main SET index <.SETI> marked a new 16-year high, with foreign investors buying shares for a net 628.87 million baht ($20.45 million) on the day, Thai bourse said.

Malaysia also reported foreign inflows Of 210 million ringgit ($69.40 million), stock exchange data showed.

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

RTRS- China set to buy even more U.S. soy -Oil World

HAMBURG, May 1 (Reuters) - China is likely to buy even more U.S.-origin soybeans in the near term because of poor South American crops, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

"Chinese buyers will increasingly shift to U.S.-origin in the coming weeks because South American supplies are becoming tighter," Oil World said.

Chicago soybean futures rose to their highest levels since 2008 last week largely on expectations looming poor soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil will transfer demand to the United States. [ID:nL3E8FP6SJ] [ID:nL3E8FR6PG] Large sales of U.S. soybeans were reported to China on Monday. [ID:nL1E8FU307]

"We expect that insufficient South American supplies will result in a contra-seasonal increase in U.S. soybean exports to China in June/August 2012, the last quarter of this season," Oil World said.

"In our preliminary estimate we expect U.S. soybean exports of at least 2.3 million tonnes to China in June/August 2012 compared with 0.6 million tonnes in the same three months of last year."

The good export outlook means Oil World has cut its forecast of U.S. end-August 2012 soybean stocks to 5.80 million tonnes, down from its March forecast of 6.30 million tonnes and down from 5.85 million tonnes in August 2011.

China's soybean demand is likely to keep increasing in coming months, it said.

"U.S. exports to China will gain momentum and, most likely, reach a new record in Sept./Feb. 2012/13," it said.

RTRS- Indonesia lifts crude palm oil tax to 19.5 pct for May

JAKARTA, April 30 (Reuters) - Top global palm oil producer Indonesia will increase its export tax for crude palm oil ( CPO) to 19.5 percent for May from 18 percent in April due to higher international prices, a trade ministry official said on Monday.

The government will also raise its raise the export tax for RBD palm olein to 10 percent in May, versus 9 percent in April, Deddy Saleh, the director general of foreign trade at the trade ministry, told Reuters.

Indonesia sets its commodity export taxes on a monthly basis.

" CPO export tax for May is 19.5 percent because its price in international market in the last one month was increasing," Saleh said.

He also said the government would leave its tax on cocoa beans unchanged at 5 percent for May due to stable international prices.

Southeast Asia's largest economy has a palm export tax system that aims to boost downstream industries, secure domestic supplies and reduce volatility in cooking oil prices.

The tax rate for the following month is calculated based on CIF Rotterdam prices, Malaysian benchmark and Jakarta futures prices.

By the midday break on Monday, benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.1 percent to 3,501 ringgit ($1,155) per tonne. Throughout April, prices have gained about 2 percent. [POI/]

Last August, Indonesia set new palm oil export tax rules which include setting the minimum level for the CPO export tax at 7.5 percent versus 1.5 percent previously. [ID:nL4E7JQ1AG]

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - The Dow closed at its highest level in more than four years on Tuesday after U.S. manufacturing expanded at a faster pace than expected in April, easing jitters about a slowdown in the economic recovery.

The Dow now sits at levels not seen since December 2007. The gains leave the benchmark S&P 500 within about 16 points of a high reached in May 2008. A convincing break above that level could set the market up for more gains, traders said.

"That's where a lot of traders' eyes are right now - it might be tough to get through there the first time," said Michael James, senior trader at Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

The Institute for Supply Management said U.S. manufacturing growth came in at its strongest rate in 10 months in April. That reading suggested the economy remains resilient after indications it had lost momentum at the start of the second quarter. [ID:nL1E8G167H]

Early gains this year have been held in check in recent weeks on worries about U.S. economic growth.

Tuesday's move higher, which came in a relatively quiet market with European exchanges closed for May Day holidays, drove the S&P 500 within striking distance of its recent high at 1,422.38.

"If we get up there, fail and don't retrace too much before the weekend, I would not be surprised to see it move through," said James.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 65.69 points, or 0.50 percent, to 13,279.32 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 7.91 points, or 0.57 percent, to 1,405.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> added 4.08 points, or 0.13 percent, to 3,050.44.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures started May by bounding higher on Tuesday and to a five-week high as U.S. manufacturing growth in April hit the highest in 10 months, boosting the demand outlook for oil after recent data showed the economy had lost steam.

The closely watched index of national factory activity from the private Institute for Supply Management rose to 54.8 from 53.4 in March, beating expectations for a decline to 53. [ID:nL1E8G14JE]

A pickup in China's official purchasing managers' index for April also supported oil's demand prospects as it signaled that the Chinese economy may be recovering from a first quarter trough. [ID:nL4E8G10UO]

On Monday, crude futures had fallen, reversing course after six straight days of gains. The loss was marginal as investors hoped that the recent spate of bearish economic data will prod the U.S. Federal Reserve to adopt more monetary easing measures.

But Fed officials' views clashed on the issue.

On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said he was not inclined to increase monetary policy accommodation, including more quantitative easing. However, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said the Fed has a "tremendous" amount of room to ease policy as he sees the United States not likely to see a "burst" of inflation. [ID:nL1E8G19N3][ID:nL1E8G10JW]

Oil investors will await the next set of inventory data, from the federal Energy Information Administration, due on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT).

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June delivery closed $1.29 higher, or 1.23 percent, at $106.16 a barrel, the highest settlement since March 27.

* Technical buying gave the contract an added boost as it hurdled the 50-day average at $105.21, easily breaking through resistance to hit a session high of $106.43, the highest intraday price since March 28.
* J.P. Morgan Chase revised lower its 2012 price forecast for U.S. crude, also called West Texas Intermediate, by $3 to $108 a barrel as it expects the Brent/WTI spread to widen to more than $15 by the year-end. The widening will come after the spread narrows to $6 or less after a flow reversal of the Seaway pipeline from mid-May, it said. [ID: nL4E8G11XJ]

* Iraq's cude oil exports rose to 2.508 million barrels per day in April, from 2.317 million bpd in March as new offshore export terminals helped increase sales. [ID: nL5E8G10N3]

* South Sudan accused Sudan of launching an attack on an oil region of the newly independent state and said it was preparing to strike back. [ID:nL5E8G12Z2]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed, with nearby contracts down on profit-taking after a five-day rally that included last week's surge to a near four-year high, traders said.

* Back months ended higher on export demand for new-crop U.S. soybeans, and as traders unwound long July/short November spreads.

* Nearby soymeal fell after Monday's multi-year highs while back months ended higher, following trends in soybeans.

* Spot soyoil ended lower for a fourth straight day.

* USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13, the second new-crop soy sale to China in as many days.

* China is likely to buy even more U.S.-origin soybeans in the near term because of poor South American crops, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said. [ID:nL5E8FUAG0]

* Front-month May soybeans were pressured by a second day of heavy deliveries, with CBOT reporting 757 soybean deliveries.

* CBOT reported 2,635 soyoil deliveries and no soymeal deliveries.

* USDA late Monday reported U.S. soybean planting at 12 percent complete, up from 6 percent a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 5 percent. [US/SOY]

* Private analyst Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor lowered his forecast of Argentina's soybean crop to 40 million tonnes, from 41.5 million previously. He also cut his estimate of Brazil's soybean crop to 65 million tonnes, from 66 million previously.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 30 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Monday as slower U.S. growth raised fears of a weaker global economic outlook, although losses were limited by strong export numbers and tight global oilseed supply.

U.S. economic growth cooled in the first quarter, dampening investor sentiment, but also raising expectations that the Federal Reserve may start another round of monetary easing. [ID:nCATRFE83Z]

Malaysian palm oil exports jumped close to 10 percent from a month earlier, but it was not enough to lift futures.

"The market is range-bound trading between 3,450 and 3,500 ringgit. Although exports were up, the market didn't pick up on that as some traders didn't want to take a long position ahead of the holiday tomorrow," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.0 percent to close at 3,471 ringgit ($1,148) per tonne. Traded volumes were thin at 21,351 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports for April improved by 9.4 percent and 10.4 percent from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance respectively. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

Traders said strong demand from major food buyers China and India as well as the biodiesel industry in Europe remained the main reasons behind the recovery in exports.

The market also sees tight global oilseed supply as a bullish factor for palm oil. Together with a lower soybean output, analysts said that lower palm oil production would help support prices.

"A severe structural slowdown in palm oil output is under way. The downtrend will worsen over coming seasons and is one the market can no longer afford to ignore," said Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon in a research note.

"We recommend shorting the September 2012 BMD crude palm oil futures at the current price of 3,450 ringgit with a target of 3,250 ringgit. From third-quarter 2012, we recommend looking for any reversal in prices to the upside with a target of 3,700 ringgit."

On the technical front, a bearish target for palm oil at 3,439 ringgit remains unchanged as indicated by its wave pattern, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL3E8FQ29B]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 30 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets rose on Monday tracking gains elsewhere in Asia, with Thai shares climbing to a new 16-year high as better-than-expected bank earnings attracted buyers.

Foreign investors bought Thai shares for 1.2 billion baht ($38.97 million) on Monday and purchased Malaysian shares for 80 million ringgit ($26.29 million), stock exchange data showed.

Thai stocks extended gains for seventh consecutive month in April, adding 2.65 percent, Southeast Asia's second best performer after Vietnam's 7.4 percent climb. Singapore's Straits Times index <.FTSTI> ended lower, while Vietnam's stock market was closed for a holiday.

Volume in most markets was low ahead of a holiday in most markets on Tuesday. Stocks markets in Thailand, Singapore, Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia are closed on Tuesday, while Indonesian markets are open for trading.

Monday, April 30, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks advanced on Friday and posted their best weekly gains in a month as stronger-than-expected earnings from Amazon.com and Expedia Inc reinforced confidence in corporate performance.

Wall Street managed a fourth day of gains as the strongearnings season outweighed a surprisingly weak reading on first-quarter economic growth. [ID:nCATRFE83Z]

Online retailer Amazon climbed 15.7 percent to $226.85 and contributed half of Nasdaq's gain for the day. An S&P retail index <.RLX> rose 3.5 percent and hit an all-time high. Shares of Expedia, the Web-based travel provider, surged 23.5 percent to close at $40.31, after hitting a new high at $43 on record volume. [ID:nL2E8FQHZE] [ID:nL2E8FQFQF]

Growth in S&P 500 earnings rose to 7.2 percent this week from 3.2 percent at the start of the month, according to Thomson Reuters data. About 73 percent of the companies that have reported so far have beaten expectations.

"So far the numbers have been pretty good, and we're happy about that, but I think we have to wait to where we're done with the earnings season to really make judgments," said David James, senior vice president of James Investment Research in Alpha, Ohio.

"Going forward, the big key for people especially looking at tech is what happens with the dollar. I think the dollar will probably be stronger than people expect on a relative basis. Historically that usually means tech is the sector that gets hit the hardest."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was up 23.69 points, or 0.18 percent, at 13,228.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 3.38 points, or 0.24 percent, at 1,403.36. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 18.59 points, or 0.61 percent, at 3,069.20.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher on Friday, up for the sixth session in a row, on hopes that weaker-than-expected growth data will spur the U.S. Fed to initiate more monetary-easing.

An initial estimate showed the first quarter U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate, slowing from 3 percent in the fourth quarter. [ID:nCATRFE83Z]

That was below economists' expectations for a 2.5 percent pace, but stronger than the 1.5 percent or less they forecast at the beginning of the quarter.

Trading was light but perked up a bit about an hour before the close of floor trading as traders attempted to test resistance at $105, which was hit just minutes before the close. Prices then receded again.

Oil futures got support from Wall Street, which advanced for a fourth straight day, as stronger earnings from bellwether stocks overshadowed the weaker-than-expected GDP data.

CBOT SOYBEAN-April 27 (Reuters) - Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed higher on Friday on brisk export sales including large sales to China.

* Support also stemmed from firm cash, slow farmer selling, waning crop prospects in South America and expectations for no soy to be posted for delivery against the spot May contract. Monday is first notice day for delivery on the May contract.

* USDA on Friday said exporters had sold 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for 2012/13 delivery and 116,000 tonnes to unknown destinations also for 2012/13 delivery.

* Wetter weather is forecast for most of the U.S. Midwest for the next week to 10-days, which will slow seedings of the 2012 corn and soybean crops. "There is a transition to wet weather, it will definitely slow plantings but it also will add valuable soil moisture. Some areas in the northwest were getting dry," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

* Freezing temperatures in the upper 20s degrees Fahrenheit were noted early on Friday in central Indiana, northwest Ohio and Michigan and another freeze is expected in the eastern Midwest on Sunday. "I don't think there will be any permanent damage. It will burn back vegetation and slow wheat development. After the weekend there should be warmer temperatures," Karst said.
* May is above all key moving averages and the nine-day RSI was at 76.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended slightly higher on Friday as tight soybean supplies from Argentina trumped concerns triggered by a Spanish debt downgrade, with traders awaiting export data on Monday for more clues on price movements.

Palm oil ended the week only 0.1 percent higher compared to a week ago, with investor sentiment caught in a tug of war between tight global oilseed supply due to bad weather in Argentina and concerns about euro zone debt.

"The market is a bit quiet today ahead of the weekend. There is no direction as traders are waiting for developments in the market, plus price movements in CBOT and Dalian soybean oil look insignificant," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The market looks to be rangebound between 3,480 and 3,520 ringgit."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched up 0.1 percent to close at 3,505 ringgit ($1,151) per tonne.

Traded volumes were thin at 21,059 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports for the first 25 days of the month recovered compared to April 1-20, although the numbers were still lower than a month ago.

Traders attributed the improvement to stronger demand from major food buyers China and India as well as the biodiesel industry in Europe, with the focus now shifting to full-month export numbers due on Monday. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

One of Argentina's biggest grains exchanges cut another million tonnes off its 2011/12 soy crop forecasts on Thursday, citing poor yields, adding to bullishness supporting palm oil prices. [ID:nL2E8FQ95V]

But investor enthusiasm was tempered after Standard & Poor's lowered its credit rating on Spain by two notches to BBB-plus on Thursday, raising new fears about the lingering euro zone debt crisis.[ID:nL2E8FQLDM]

Palm oil will likely head towards 3,397 ringgit after testing support at 3,439 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL3E8FQ29B]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 27 (Reuters) - Indonesian shares fell on Friday as investors sold banks on concerns about new bank ownership rules while other markets in the region reversed early gains to end lower amid euro zone debt concerns.

Indonesia's benchmark stock index <.JKSE> ended down 0.39 percent, led by a 1.67 percent drop in the Jakarta Finance Index <.JKFINA>.

Shares in Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk tumbled 6.4 percent after Indonesia's central bank said it would issue new bank ownership rules next month and then review plans by

Singapore's DBS Group to acquire Indonesia's sixth-largest lender.

The Philippine index <.PSI> fell nearly 1 percent, erasing Thursday's 0.7 percent gain to an all-time high.

Friday, April 27, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, April 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose for a third day on Thursday after upbeat housing data and stronger-than-expected results from companies, including Citrix Systems Inc , overshadowed some high-profile earnings misses.

An index of pending home sales rose to nearly a two-year high in March, sending the Philadelphia Stock Exchange index of housing-related shares <.HGX> up 3 percent. Shares of homebuilder Lennar climbed 5.7 percent to $27.38.

During the regular session, the positive news on the housing front helped the market overcome data showing a stumbling labor market recovery. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell slightly in the latest week, but missed forecasts. [ID:nL2E8FQ37P]

"You can get cautious right here, but do not get bearish. There are too many good things happening," said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist of Raymond James Financial in St. Petersburg, Florida.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 113.90 points, or 0.87 percent, to close at 13,204.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> advanced 9.29 points, or 0.67 percent, to 1,399.98. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 20.98 points, or 0.69 percent, to 3,050.61.

Wednesday's rally helped to purge a lot of April's losses brought on by investors' worries over prospects for a seasonally weak market in May as well as signs that Europe's debt crisis was getting worse.
 
NYMEX- NEW YORK, April 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Thursday as upbeat March pending home sales added to optimism about the outlook for energy demand.
The pending home sales report offset disappointing U.S. jobless claims data and helped counter the bearish effect of a crude inventory rise in the United States reported by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. [EIA/S]

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude rose 43 cents, or 0.41 percent, to settle at $104.55 a barrel, having traded from $103.84 to $104.92. That intraday peak was near the 50-day moving average of $105.06.

* Five North Sea Forties crude oil cargoes loading in May have been delayed after a production halt at Nexen's Buzzard oilfield, a trading source said on Thursday. The source said that Buzzard, which shut down over the weekend, was ramping up on Thursday after being restarted on Wednesday. [ID:nL9E8CA00X]

* Seaborne oil exports from OPEC, excluding Angola and Ecuador, will fall by 20,000 barrels per day in the four weeks to May 12, UK consultancy Oil Movements said. [ID:nL6E8FQDD8]

* A Russian diplomat said on Wednesday that Iran and Western nations had shown interest in a Russian proposal aimed to help defuse the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program, but suggested it had not been the focus of talks earlier this month. [ID:nL6E8FQ4BM]

* South Korea will make sharp cuts in imports of Iranian crude from June as tightening Western sanctions make it impossible to secure insurance coverage for tankers, industry and company sources said. [ID:nL3E8FQ5HU]

* The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Oil Volatility Index <.OVX> fell to its lowest level in nearly five years intraday on Thursday, dropping below 25. [ID:nL2E8FQ4BO]

* Oil will be supported by Iranian tensions even as top producers pump at near full capacity, though the second quarter looks set for traditional seasonal price weakening, a Reuters poll showed. [O/POLL]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures closed higher in the old-crop months on big export sales to China and waning crop prospects in South America.

Spot May gained nearly 20 cents per bushel premium on new-crop November on bull-spreading as traders bought old-crop contracts such as May SK2 and sold new-crop months such as November SX2.

USDA's weekly export sales report showed that net export sales of U.S. soybeans during the week ended last Thursday totaled 1,409,300 tonnes, above a range of estimates for 900,000 to 1,250,000 tonnes. [nEAP10AQ04] The USDA export sales highlights showed that old-crop sales to China totaled 603,800 tonnes and new-crop sales to China totaled 185,700 tonnes. [nIGB26E228]

Occasional bouts of rainfall in the Midwest over the next two weeks will slow the corn and soybean seeding pace but no major problems are expected, according to Commodity Weather Group. CWG also said frosty weather expected in the northern and eastern Midwest over the weekend would cause only minor damage to crops.

The Taiwan Sugar Corp. Has rejected all offers and made no purchase in a tender to buy 23,000 tonnes of U.S. origin corn and 12,000 tonnes of U.S. origin soybeans which closed on Thursday, European traders said. [nL6E8FQ3Q2]

Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on Thursday as global economic uncertainty and expectations of improving production weighed on the market, although recovering exports and a smaller soybean crop in Argentina limited losses. [nL3E8FQ32H] May was above all key moving averages and the nine-day RSI was at 73.

FCPO-SINGAPORE, April 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped on Thursday as global economic uncertainty and expectations of improving production weighed on the market, although recovering exports and a smaller soybean crop in Argentina limited losses.

Despite the Federal Reserve's assurance that its very easy monetary policy will be kept in place for as long as needed, investors remained sceptical, worrying that the lingering euro zone debt crisis could slow growth and dampen demand.

"The underlying fundamentals still look quite good. Market is down as traders expect production should pick up in the month ahead. Another thing is economic concerns may be eating into demand," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 0.3 percent to close at 3,500 ringgit ($1,146) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 29,661 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports for the first 25 days of the month dropped a slight 2 and 3 percent, according to cargo surveyors Societe Generale de Surveillance and Intertek Testing Services respectively. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

Despite the fall, market players see the numbers as an improvement compared to the 5 percent decline seen in the first 20 days of the month. Traders said that demand from major food buyers China and India has been picking up, contributing to stronger buying interest in the edible oil.

Shipments to Europe were also higher compared to a month ago as demand from the biodiesel industry returned after winter.

Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World this week cut its forecast for Argentina's 2012 soy output to 42.5 million tonnes, reinforcing views of a tight global oilseed supply. [ID:nL5E8FN7X0]

Reuters market analyst Wang Tao had a bearish view, saying palm oil will clear a support at 3,439 ringgit per tonne and fall further to 3,395 ringgit. [ID:nL3E8FQ29B]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 26 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly higher on Thursday, with Philippine shares climbing to fresh all-time highs and Thai stocks hitting their highest in more than three weeks on optimism fuelled by the U.S. Federal

Reserve's commitment to support growth. Fund flows appeared favourable, with the Philippines <.PSI> posting $16.5 million worth of foreign buying, Thomson Reuters data showed. Malaysian bourse said foreign investors bought shares for 138.70 million ringgit ($45.35 million).