Wednesday, May 16, 2012

RTRS- Oil World cuts forecast of EU 2012 rapeseed crop

HAMBURG, May 15 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday it has again cut its forecast of the European Union's 2012 rapeseed crop because of bad weather, this time by 0.1 million tonnes.

The EU crop will fall to a six-year low of 18.10 million tonnes from 19.12 million tonnes in 2011 after poor autumn sowing weather and a bitterly cold winter which damaged plants, Oil World said.

This follows a cut of 0.27 million tonnes in Oil World's harvest forecast on May 1. [ID:nL5E8FUBZY] Rapeseed oil is the EU's main edible oil and rapeoil is also widely used for biodiesel output.

France's crop will fall to 5.15 million tonnes from 5.37 million tonnes in 2011 and Poland's will fall to 1.60 million tonnes from 1.87 million tonnes, it said.

Germany's harvest will rise to 4.45 million tonnes against 3.78 million tonnes last year. Britain's 2.72 million tonnes will be close to the record 2.76 million tonne harvest last year, Oil World said.

"The reduced production will raise EU import requirements of rapeseed and canola," Oil World said.

Oil World also warned of a poor crop in Ukraine, a major rapeseed supplier to the EU.

Ukraine's 2012 rapeseed crop will fall to 0.95 million tonnes from 1.32 million tonnes last year, Oil World estimates.

"Ukrainian exports will decline sharply owing to the very small crop next season," it said. "This will raise the global dependence on Canadian and Australian rapeseed and canola export supplies and will keep prices of rapeseed and canola well supported."

RTRS- Soybean prices to remain well supported -Oil World

HAMBURG, May 15 (Reuters) - The sharp fall in soybean prices in recent days is premature and tight supply fundamentals are likely to keep prices well supported in coming months, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

"We see only limited downward potential for soybean prices in the near to medium term," Oil World said.

U.S. soybean futures fell to six-week lows on Monday, dragged down by continued selling of long positions by funds and by concerns over the strength of the global economy. [GRA/]

The fall from highs reached on May 2 is "premature and mainly based on technical factors rather than fundamentals," Oil World said.

Global soybean harvests in the current 2011/12 season will fall to 116.07 million tonnes from 137.68 million tonnes in 2010/11, it said.

This is likely to be caused by expected poor crops in Argentina and Brazil. [ID:nL5E8G85U2]

"With South American supplies significantly reduced as of end-August 2012, there will be a run on U.S. export supplies - soybeans, soymeal and oil - for shipment in Sept./Feb. 2012/13," it said.

Near-record soymeal prices will also be required to ration available soymeal supplies, it added.

"Vegetable oil prices are seen appreciating in the near to medium term owing to insufficient world soybean supplies in the next few months, the prospective palm oil deficit in Malaysia...and insufficient world supplies of rapeseed and canola oils," it added.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a four-month low against the dollar and global stocks dropped o n T uesday as Greece's decision to hold new elections added to uncertainty about its future and a possible exit from the euro zone.

Gold hit a 4-1/2-month low with the euro's retreat.

The political turmoil in Greece kept pressure on markets. Investors have been concerned that long-lasting problems in the euro zone and a likely recession will hit global growth.

Greek politicians again failed to agree on a new government, nine days after an inconclusive election. After Greece's president said the country will hold new elections, the euro slumped and investors fled to the safe-haven dollar.

"They are running out of money ahead of elections, so expect European leaders in the next few days to put enormous pressure on them to come up with a workable government along with some sort of extended schedule for the bailout," said Boris Schlossberg, director of FX Research at GFT in Jersey City, New Jersey.

The euro fell for the fifth of the last six sessions on chances left-wing politicians opposed to Greece's international bailout could win the June elections. A report showing the Greek economy slid deep in recession added to worries.

The euro last traded down 0.7 percent at $1.2732, with the session trough at $1.2720, the lowest since Jan. 18.

Wall Street stocks fell for a third straight day on the shaky situation in Greece.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 63.35 points, or 0.50 percent, to close at 12,632.00. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 7.69 points, or 0.57 percent, at 1,330.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 8.82 points, or 0.30 percent, at 2,893.76.

Economic data on U.S. regional manufacturing and national homebuilder sentiment was positive, however. A gauge of homebuilder sentiment rose to the highest in five years this month. [ID:nN9E8FH00R] Separately, the pace of growth in New York state manufacturing rebounded, the New York Federal Reserve said. [ID:L1E8GF2YM]

Data also showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.1 percent in April, coming in under expectations.

Among gains, JPMorgan Chase & Co shares rose 1.3 percent to $36.24 after falling more than 11 percent last week after the bank disclosed a trading loss of at least $2 billion. Pressure mounted on the bank to reclaim some of the millions of dollars it paid to the executives who oversaw the wrong-way trades. [ID:nL1E8GF0VL]

On the down side were Chesapeake Energy Corp shares, which fell as low as $14.31, their lowest since March 2009, after a credit rating downgrade and news that the natural gas producer will increase its borrowing to $4 billion from the planned $3 billion as it faces a liquidity crunch. Chesapeake shares finished the session down 5.6 percent at $14.65. [ID:nL1E8GF4RS]

Germany kept hopes for growth alive when it reported that strong exports helped its economy grow 0.5 percent in the first three months of the year, ahead of market forecasts. Germany's performance offset zero growth in France and recession in Italy and Spain, leaving the whole 17-member euro zone economy stagnating but not in recession. [ID:nL5E8GF4FA]

The upbeat German data helped support the price of Brent crude, which snapped three days of declines. In London, ICE Brent crude for June delivery settled at $112.24 a barrel, rising 67 cents, or 0.60 percent.

NYMEX crude for June delivery settled at $93.88 a barrel, down 80 cents, or 0.84 percent.

In the precious metals market, spot gold was off 0.88 percent at $1,542.60 an ounce and hit its lowest level since Dec. 29 at $1,541.10 on heightened concerns over Europe's financial crisis.

"The euro has done very poorly against the dollar because of everything going on predominantly in Greece. Gold has gotten sold off quite hard in the last couple of sessions. I think people are unwinding and getting into cash and a little bit of Treasuries, German bunds, and that's about it," said Fred Schoenstein, metals trader at Heraeus in New York.

U.S. Treasuries prices eased as traders booked profits from an eight-week run-up primed by worries over the outcome of the European debt crisis.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was down 1/32, the yield at 1.7705 percent.

While U.S. yields rose slightly, benchmark rates remain below the technically important 1.8 percent level and not far off the seven-month low of 1.76 percent touched in overnight trade. Last week Treasuries yields fell for the eighth consecutive week.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures extended losses in post-settlement trading on Tuesday after industry data showed that domestic crude inventories rose sharply last week, dwarfing the forecast in a Reuters poll and adding to oil demand worries.

Crude futures earlier settled lower for a third straight day as political turmoil in Greece stoked worries that it might exit the euro zone, outweighing upbeat German GDP data and a mixed set of U.S. economic reports pointing to continued, through slower, growth.

The euro slumped on worries about Greece while the dollar rose, prompting investors to spurn trades in riskier assets such as equities and major commodities such as oil and metals.

Euro zone worries persisted even though data showed that the region narrowly avoided recession in early 2012, official data showed. However, the bloc's debt crisis had weakened the French and Italian economies. [ID:nL538GF4FA]

This added to concerns about bleaker prospects for oil demand, a problem that has already kept investors queasy following weak industrial production data from China last week.

The industry group Amerian Petrioleum Institute said that in the week to May 11, domestic crude stocks shot up by 6.6 million barrels, far above the forecast for a 1.7 million barrel increase. [API/S] [EIA/S]

Crude stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery hub for U.S.-traded crude oil futures, jumped 2.8 million barrels, the API said.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled at $93.88 a barrel, down 80 cents, or 0.84 percent, after trading between $93.78 and $95.48. Since the beginning of the month, the contract has fallen $12.18, or 11.5 percent.

* In post-settlement trading, June crude extended the day's low to $93.18 and further fell to $93.02, the lowest since Dec. 19's intraday low of $92.54, after issuance of the API data.

* The euro zone's gross domestic product stagnated in the first quarter, according to official data. It was a touch better than forecasts of a 0.2 percent dip and dodged a technical recession following a 0.3 percent contraction in the last quarter of 2011. [ID:nL5E8GF4FA]

* A jump in exports pushed Germany to a surprisingly strong economic growth of 0.5 percent in the first quarter, beating forecasts and bouncing back from a contraction of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. [ID: nL5E8GF1SE]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended nearly 2 percent higher, staging a technical recovery from recent sharp losses amid rumors of Chinese export interest for U.S. soy, traders said.

* Nearby soybean and soymeal contracts gained against back months amid rumors that China was seeking old-crop U.S. soy, traders said. They noted that analytical firm Celeres on Monday said Brazilian farmers had sold 83 percent of their 2011/12 harvest. [ID:nL1E8GE7Q2]
* CBOT soybeans seen as due for a bounce after a two-week sell-off drove the market to a six-week low by Monday, a sharp setback from the near-four-year high set in late April.

* Soymeal posted the biggest gains in the soy complex on a percentage basis. Market supported by concerns about crop losses in South America, including fears of further losses in Argentina, the world's biggest exporter of soymeal.

* Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World cut its forecast of the European Union's 2012 rapeseed crop because of bad weather. The EU crop will fall to a six-year low of 18.10 million tonnes, from 19.12 million tonnes in 2011, Oil World said. [ID:nL5E8GE9OX]

* The sharp fall in CBOT soybean prices in recent days is premature and tight supply fundamentals are likely to keep prices well supported in coming months - Oil World. [ID:nL5E8GEECF]

* USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 46 percent seeded as of Sunday, up from 24 percent a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 24 percent. The crop was 16 percent emerged. [US/SOY]

* Dry, mild weather expected this week in the U.S. Midwest should help farmers to wrap up corn planting and move ahead with soybeans, said Andy Karst, meteorologist with World Weather Inc. Soil moisture is adequate in most areas but rising temperatures will speed the drying of the ground. Rain expected by the weekend, Karst said.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Tuesday, supported by bargain hunting after prices fell to a three-month low in the previous session, although concerns remained that demand could be hit if Greece exits the euro zone.

Buying interest picked up as some traders felt that the market was oversold. Malaysian exports for the first 15 days showed a slight improvement, reinforcing the view that palm oil fundamentals remained solid despite global economic uncertainty.

"We see a small recovery today because selling was a bit overdone yesterday and exports were also slightly better," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"But sentiment is still weak because of external factors, especially when we talk about Greece and the revival of uncertainty in Europe."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 2.4 percent to close at 3,226 ringgit ($1,048) per tonne. Prices closed at 3,150 ringgit on Monday, the weakest since Feb. 13.

Traded volumes stood at 34,697 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil exports for first 15 days of May picked up by a slight 0.7 percent to 599,044 tonnes, according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, reflecting a still-healthy demand for the edible oil. [PALM/ITS]

Another cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance meanwhile reported a 7 percent drop in exports to 564,477 tonnes, thanks to lower shipments to China and India. [PALM/SGS]

But traders said the lower exports did not weigh on prices much as they do not necessarily indicate weaker demand and especially in an already-oversold market. In the latest development of an upcoming listing of

Malaysian palm oil firm Felda Global Venture Holdings (FGVH), commodities group Louis Dreyfus has agreed to take a minority stake in Felda, it said on Monday. [ID:nL5E8GEHGX]

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 15 (Reuters) - Stocks in Singapore and Thailand pushed higher on Tuesday, with beaten down commmodities-related shares rebounding, as strong growth in Germany spurred late buying and eased worries over the political turmoil in Greece and the euro debt problems.

Singapore's main index <.FTSTI> edged up 0.44 percent at 2,876.70, bouncing back from an intraday low of 2,850.61 and reversing losses of the past two sessions. The Thai SET index <.SETI> climbed 1.63 percent after Monday's 2.1 percent drop.

A flurry of foreign selling activity pulled Thai shares off their 16-year highs hit early this month.

The Thai stock market saw around $182 million worth of net foreign outflows so far in May to Monday, after a combined $2.7 billion of net foreign inflows for the first four months, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Indonesia <.JKSE> also posted net foreign outflows of $146 million for the period, but Vietnamese stocks <.VNI> had $19.9 million worth of inflows, the data showed. The Malaysian bourse said it took in around $160 million of inflows during the period.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

RTRS- U.S. CORN PLANTING SEEN 86 PCT COMPLETE, SOY PLANTING 43 PCT, AS OF MAY 13-ANALYSTS

CHICAGO, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers had planted 86 percent of their corn as of May 13, just below the record for mid-May, as farmers in areas west of the Mississippi River made good progress after a slow start, according to analysts polled by Reuters.

Soybean planting was seen at 43 percent complete, up from 24 percent last week and behind the mid-May record of 46 percent that was set in 2005.

The U.S. Agriculture Department will release its weekly crop progress report, with estimates of corn and soybean planting as well as the condition of the wheat crop, on Monday afternoon.

RTRS- China May soy imports seen at 6-mth high - Mofcom

BEIJING, May 14 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy buyer, is likely to import 5.63 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, the commerce ministry estimated on Monday, up 15 percent from actual arrivals of 4.88 million tonnes in April.

The figure, the highest since last November, is in line with analyst estimates of 5.7-6.0 million tonnes. Chinese crushers have increased imports on encouraging crushing margins. [ID:nL4E8GA1QA]

The ministry also forecast imports in May of 163,761 tonnes of soyoil, the largest monthly imports since July 2011, and 425,290 tonnes of palmoil.

The projections, based on reports by buyers, may not be in line with official arrival data issued by Customs, but provides a reference to gauge supply.

RTRS- Dreyfus to take stake in palm oil group Felda

PARIS, May 14 (Reuters) - Commodities group Louis Dreyfus has agreed to take a minority stake in Malaysian palm oil firm Felda, it said on Monday, adding that it was conditional on a successful June stock market float for Felda.

Felda Global Ventures Holding (FGVH) is preparing to sell shares in what promises to be the world's second-largest initial public share offering this year after Facebook.

"It (the memorandum of understanding) concerns an industrial partnership that could eventually lead to the acquisition of a stake in the capital of this company as part of its listing," Chairman Margarita Louis-Dreyfus said in an interview published on the website of French newspaper Les Echos on Monday.

Sources told Reuters last week that FGVH officials had invited Louis Dreyfus to take a 4.9 percent stake in the company ahead of the $3 billion initial public offering. [ID:nL4E8G92HT]

Louis Dreyfus said in a statement on Monday: "This strategic partnership is a major step in Louis Dreyfus Commodities' development in Asia and a unique opportunity to cement its role as one of the largest integrated players in palm oil activities."

The proposed transaction involves both a strategic cornerstone investment in the IPO and the creation of two joint ventures, Louis Dreyfus added.

Louis Dreyfus Commodities has its headquarters in Rotterdam, in the Netherlands.

Chairman Louis-Dreyfus also told Les Echos that the commodities group had launched on May 9 a process to list its Brazilian subsidiary, which mainly operates in the sugar and ethanol markets.

The group plans to invest a total of $7 billion over the next five years, partly financed by bonds, she added, reiterating comments made by Chief Executive Serge Schoen in an interview with the Financial Times published on Sunday. [ID:nL1E8GD3MN]

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday as investors dealt with the one-two punch of worsening political upheaval in the euro zone and the possibility that China's economy may be softening more than previously thought.

The S&P 500 finished lower for the fourth day of five to close at its lowest level since February, adding fuel to worries of a coming market correction.

Economically sensitive shares, including banks and energy companies, paced the decline. Exxon Mobil Corp lost 1.2 percent to $82.12. The NYSEArca oil index <.XOI> fell 1.8 percent.

State television in Greece reported the president of the fiscally beleaguered country will continue talks on forming a coalition government, although Socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos said on Monday he was not optimistic that a government could be formed.[ID:nL5E8GD2Z1][ID:nA8E8GD00C][ID:nA8E8E902Q]

"People are starting to lose patience - you saw what happened in Greece and some of the other regions around Europe, in terms of voters getting frustrated," said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities in New York.

Banks were pressured by JPMorgan Chase & Co , which announced the exit of a top executive after suffering trading losses that could reach $3 billion or more. JPMorgan shares fell 3.2 percent to $35.79 after losing 9 percent on Friday. The KBW Bank Index <.BKX> dropped 2.6 percent. [ID:nL5E8GECMU]

Adding to the swirling political winds in Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats suffered a crushing defeat on Sunday, which could encourage the opposition to increase attacks on her austerity policies. Merkel said on Monday the defeat was a bitter setback, but would not alter her view on how to achieve growth. [ID:nL5E8GD1JG] [ID:nL5E8GE862]

Concerns about the depth of a slowdown in China have been troubling investors for several months. China's decision on Saturday to cut the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves, normally seen as a pro-growth move, suggested the country may be facing more significant hurdles. [ID:nL4E8GC03Q]

The three major U.S. stock indexes pared losses after the European markets closed before selling reaccelerated near the end of trading, pushing the S&P 500 below an important support level at 1,340, which could trigger further selling.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 125.25 points, or 0.98 percent, to close at 12,695.35. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 15.04 points, or 1.11 percent, to 1,338.35. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 31.24 points, or 1.06 percent, to 2,902.58.

Safe-haven currencies, including the dollar and the Japanese yen, rose, with the euro hitting a four-month low against the dollar. Oil fell sharply, with Brent crude falling to its lowest level in 3-1/2 months. [O/R]

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures slumped to a five-month low on Monday as Greece's inability to form a new government raised fears it might exit the euro zone and worries about China's economic slowdown persisted, sparking a broad commodities sell-off.

Concerns about the euro zone economy were unabated as data showed that factory output in the region fell in March, adding to recent disappointing reports indicating the bloc's recession may not be as mild as analysts had thought. [ID:nL5E8GE5OT] [ID:nL5E8GEFRW]

In China, its central bank reduced bank reserve requirements in a bid to increase lending funds and forestall a deeper slide in the world's second largest economy. The move came after dismal industrial production data released on Friday.[ID:nL4E8GC03Q]

Oil prices have found a long-term floor at $90-$95 per barrel and nearby spot oil prices could rise sharply if Middle East tensions increase again, the co-heads of trading company Mercuria said. [ID:nL5E8GEG5J]

Meanwhile, U.S. crude stockpiles were forecast to have risen 1.5 million barrels in the week to May 11, according to a preliminary Reuters poll ahead of weekly inventory data. [EIA/S]

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude closed $1.35 lower, or 1.4 percent, at $94.78 a barrel, the lowest since Dec. 19, when front-month crude settled at $93.88. It posted an intraday low of $93.65, also the lowest for front-month crude since Dec. 19. .

* U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut 821,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending May 18, down from 1.12 million bpd last week, data from research company IIR Energy showed. [ID:nL5E8GE5XD]

* Turkey has reduced its crude oil imports from Iran steeply in April from unusually high levels in March but its purchases were still close to last year's average, indicating that Ankara has yet to slash buying to the extent sought by Washington, data from shipping sources showed. [ID:nL5E8GE93D]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell to a six-week low as a firmer dollar and worries about the global economy prompted long liquidation, traders said.

* Optimism about U.S. planting progress and expectations that U.S. farmers will plant more soybeans than USDA forecast in its March 30 report pressured new-crop contracts, sending November soy to a two-month low below $13 a bushel.

* Analysts polled by Reuters expected USDA to show U.S. soybean planting progress at 43 percent in its weekly crop progress report later on Monday. [ID:nC3E8FP00C]

* Worries about a potential Greek exit from the euro drove a rush to safety by investors, pressuring riskier assets including grains. Worries about the China's decision to loosen monetary policy at the weekend added to fears that the global economy is suffering. [MKTS/GLOB]

* Large speculators hold a sizeable net long in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market vulnerable to long liquidation. But funds scaled back in the latest reporting week from a record-large net long a week earlier, CFTC data showed on Friday.[ID:nL1E8SB793]

* The National Oilseed Processors Association reported the U.S. soybean crush for April at 131.708 million bushels, below the average trade estimate of 134.8 million and down from 140.534 million in March. [ID:nWNA7149]

* NOPA reported April U.S. soyoil stocks at 2.385 billion lbs, above an average of trade estimates for 2.362 billion.

* China, the world's top soy buyer, is likely to import 5.63 million tonnes of the oilseed in May, the commerce ministry estimated, up 15 percent from actual arrivals of 4.88 million tonnes in April. [ID:nL4E8GE5LB]

* CBOT May contracts expired quietly at 12:01 p.m. CDT (1701 GMT).

* ICE U.S. soybean futures <0#ISF:> debuted on Monday but volume was light, with only about 485 contracts traded by the CBOT close. The cash-settled ICE grain contracts trade nearly around the clock, weekdays from 7 p.m. to 5 p.m. CDT (0000 to 2200 GMT). [ID:nL1E8GD2AI]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures suffered their sharpest fall in more than a year on Monday, closing at a three-month low as failed talks to form a new Greek government heightened fears about the euro zone's debt crisis.

Market sentiment was bearish as talks to form a coalition government in Greece stalled, pushing the debt-laden country closer to bankruptcy and a possible exit from the euro zone. [ID:nL5E8GD0FH]

"Political uncertainty in euro zone and a gloomy global economic outlook weighed on the market. Weakness in Malaysian palm overnight is also a factor," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia, referring to palm oil futures that slipped to a 9-week low on Friday.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 3.8 percent to close at 3,150 ringgit ($1,023) per tonne, the worst single-day loss since February last year, when prices dropped more than 4 percent.

Palm oil closed at its weakest since ending at 3,168 ringgit on Feb. 13 this year.

"Some emotional loss-cutting and headline-driven sell down were going on. Fundamentals are actually not so bad ... the sell down was grossly overdone and a rebound is expected soon," said another dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Traded volumes stood at 40,345 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots as traders were eager to cut losses.

Palm oil seems to be heading towards 3,136 ringgit as it has broken a support level at 3,208 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao based on technical analysis. [ID:nL4E8GE386]
Traders will be looking out for export numbers for the first half of the month due on Tuesday to gauge demand trend for the edible oil.

Market players expected a recovery in export numbers after the fall in the first 10 days but said that it may not lift palm oil prices by much in a volatile global market.

Malaysia's April palm oil stock level fell 5.4 percent to 1.85 million tonnes from a month ago, according to industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board. [ID:nL4E8GA2VA]

"Earlier positive news of lower soybean production from South America has already been priced in, so the Dalian market is now tracking CBOT (U.S. Chicago Board of Trade). If prices continue to fall for the next two days, we will soon see a rebound," said Huang Zhi Qiang, an analyst with Guotai Junan Futures in Shanghai.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 14 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks fell on Monday, with Thailand's main index posting its biggest daily loss in seven months, as uncertainty over the impact of a potential Greek exit from the euro drove a rush to safety by investors, with a rout in oil markets prompting selling in energy related shares.

Underperforming the region, the Thai SET index <.SETI> slid 2.1 percent to finish at 1,165.51, its lowest close since April 17. Index heavyweight energy shares <.SETEN> dropped 2.4 percent.

Vietnamese <.VNI> stocks fell for a fourth consecutive session, ending down 2.17 percent at 469.69, their lowest close in almost two weeks.

Monday, May 14, 2012

RTRS- India's April vegoil imports rise; refined palm down

MUMBAI, May 11 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oils imports in April rose 27 percent from a month earlier largely on a surge in crude palm oil and soyoil purchases, but imports of refined palm oil dropped as buyers feared they could face fresh import duties, a trade body said.

India, the world's largest vegetable oil importer, buys mainly palm oils from Indonesia and Malaysia, and a small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

Total vegetable oil imports in April stood at 925,334 tonnes, broadly as expected by traders, including 897,404 tonnes of edible oils and 27,930 tonnes of non-edible oils, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said in a statement on Friday. [ID:nL4E8G3401]

Imports of refined palm oil in April fell to 97,547 tonnes from 186,788 tonnes in March, slightly below expectations.

India's refining industry has been asking the government for retaliatory action to Indonesia's move to make its refined palm oil more attractive than crude to protect its refining industry.

Concerns that this would be imposed while shipments were en route kept buying of refined palm oils subdued, the SEA told Reuters.

But the government has so far held off, fearful of fuelling near double-digit inflation as edible oil imports carry a weight of 3.04 in the wholesale price index. [ID:nL4E8E51LY]

"Traders are cautiously buying refined palm oil. They are expecting some restructuring in duty by the government to halt the cheaper flow of refined products," B.V. Mehta, executive director of SEA, told Reuters.

Imports of refined palm oil since the start of the year in November have risen 89 percent on a year ago after Indonesia altered duties in October 2011 to make its refined palm oils more attractive than crude palm oil (CPO).

Imports of crude palm oil rose to 414,590 tonnes in April from 278,696 tonnes in the previous month as buying focus shifted from the costlier refined variant.

Soyoil imports in April more than doubled to 216,509 tonnes from 100,615 tonnes in March as some delayed shipments from south America arrived after transport disruptions in Argentina. 

RTRS- NOPA April U.S. soy crush seen at 134.8 mln bu

CHICAGO, May 11 (Reuters) - The National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush data slated for release on Monday should show the U.S. crush for April at 134.8 million bushels, analysts projected on Friday.

Trade estimates ranged from 128.5 million to 144 million bushels. NOPA reported the March crush at 140.534 million bushels and the year-ago April 2011 crush at 121.330 million bushels.

The consensus estimate for NOPA's April U.S. soyoil stocks figure was 2.362 billion lbs, nearly unchanged from NOPA's March figure of 2.363 billion lbs. Analyst estimates ranged from 2.263 billion to 2.450 billion lbs.

NOPA reported year-ago April 2011 soyoil stocks at 2.694 billion lbs.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. banks slumped on Friday after JPMorgan said it lost billions of dollars on bad trades, but the overall market ended only modestly lower, thanks to gains in technology shares.

JPMorgan Chase & Co , the largest U.S. bank by assets, dropped 9.3 percent on record high volume after it disclosed losses on derivatives trades. The news sparked fears that the problems could reverberate through the banking sector. The KBW bank index <.BKX> fell 1.2 percent.

"JPMorgan will become a political issue. This will increase regulations on banks, and the overhang on large banks will last for awhile," said Tim Ghriskey, who oversees about $2 billion as chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

Wall Street ended lower for the second week in a row, as concerns about Europe's fiscal health resurfaced as political turmoil in Greece again sparked worry that it could exit the euro and Spain's ailing banks spurred fears the country could need a bailout, while some U.S. economic data raised questions about growth.

But a survey released on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment rose to a more than four-year high in early May as Americans remained upbeat about the job market. The survey was a welcome sign amid worries that the economic recovery may be slowing down.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 34.44 points, or 0.27 percent, at 12,820.60. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 4.60 points, or 0.34 percent, at 1,353.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 0.18 points, or 0.01 percent, at 2,933.82.

For the week, the Dow fell 1.7 percent, the S&P fell 1.1 percent, and the Nasdaq was off 0.8 percent.

"The trader types see that we came down to that 1,340 area on the S&P 500, started to bounce, started to see some buying, some bottom fishing, then you got that consumer sentiment number, and that was compelling enough," he said.

The disclosure by JPMorgan came as shocking news by a bank viewed as a strong risk manager.

JPMorgan estimates the business unit involved in the trading loss will lose $800 million in the current quarter, excluding private equity results and litigation expenses. The bank had previously expected the unit to post a profit of about $200 million.

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive, cautioned that losses could grow by another $1 billion, another hurdle for a sector already besieged by the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and fears of slowing growth globally. [ID:nL1E8GALF5]

The news weighed on bank shares as investors feared both a greater risk of more regulation and the potential for more such losses at other banks. The stocks, however, came off their lows of the morning.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell nearly 1 percent on Friday as weaker industrial growth in China and persistent euro zone worries clouded the oil demand outlook.

A four-year-high reading in U.S. consumer confidence failed to halt the day's selling, causing crude futures to fall for a second straight week, racking up the biggest two-week percentage loss since the end of September last year. For the report on cosumer confidence, see [ID:nL1E8GA890]

A forecast for a small rise in oil demand caused little stir in the oil markets

The International Energy Agency said global oil demand will remain little changed this year. It forecast that demand will edge up 20,000 barrels per day from its previous monthly forecast, to 790,000 bpd. [IEA/M]

Meanwhile, a weekly report from the U.S. futures market regulator showed the biggest ever cuts in net U.S. crude oil long positions by big traders, reflecting the recent steep sell-off that has sent prices sharply lower. [ID:nL1E8SB85I]

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said that hedge funds and other large speculative investors slashed their positions in NYMEX crude oil and options in the week to May 8 by 81,674 contracts to 153,725 in the period.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude settled 95 cents lower at $96.13 a barrel.

* For the week, front-month crude fell $2.36 or 2.4 percent, extending losses to a second straight week. In those two weeks, U.S. front-month crude dropped $8.80, or 8.4 percent, the biggest two-week percentage loss since Sept. 30, 2011.

* BP has made the first offer to sell crude oil in the U.S. Gulf Coast from the glutted Cushing, Oklahoma, trading hub via the reverseed Seaway pipeline, due to start next week, raising hope for stronger prices for Canadian and U.S. crudes, traders and brokers said. [ID:nL1E8GBRAN]

* Enbridge Inc Canada's No. 2 pipeline company, plans to spend $1.3 billion doubling the capacity of its Line 6B in Michingan and Indiana as reffiners raise demand for inexpensive Canadian crude. [ID:nL1E8SB4NZ]

* China's implied oil deamnd dropped to a six-month low in April and posted its first yearly decline in at last the last three years due to a sputtering economy and high crude prices. [ID:nL4E8GB4ZX]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade plunged 3.4 percent, their biggest daily slide in 7-1/2 months, on long liquidation and risk aversion amid concerns about the health of the global economy, traders said.

* Benchmark July soybeans broke below its 40-day moving average, erasing strong gains notched a day earlier after a bullish government forecast for U.S. soy ending stocks.

* For the week, CBOT soybeans unofficially fell 4.8 percent, the second straight weekly drop and the biggest since late November.

* Commodity sector under pressure as Greece appeared unable to form a government and Chinese data came in unexpectedly weak, fuelling fears of a global economic slowdown. [MKTS/GLOB]

* Markets also rattled by an unexpected $2 billion trading loss at Wall Street giant JP Morgan , which pushed jittery investors away from risky assets. [ID:nL5E8GB6XO]

* Funds held a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans in the latest CFTC reporting week, leaving the market open to bouts of long liquidation.

* Favorable U.S. crop weather lent pressure, supporting prospects for large U.S. crops.

* USDA confirmed sales of 139,500 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for 2011/12 delivery. [ID:nL1E8GBK7F]

* Workers at one of Argentina's biggest grains ports lifted a strike and agreed to respect a Labor Ministry order for talks to resolve the pay dispute, union and industry sources said. [ID:nL1E8GBRK6]

* Ahead of NOPA's April U.S. soy crush data due out Monday, the average analyst estimate was 134.8 million bushels, compared with NOPA's March figure of 140.534 million bu. Analyst estimates for April ranged from 128.5 million to 144 million bushels. [ID:nL1E8GBX1W]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a 9-week low on Friday before ending more than 2 percent lower as political uncertainty in the euro zone and weak industrial production data in China weighed on the demand outlook for the edible oil.

China's industrial production in April grew at its slowest pace in nearly three years, which along with poor trade numbers on Thursday, suggest the world's No. 2 economy continues to slow down after a weak first-quarter performance. [ID:nL4E2GB0UT]

A gloomy global economic outlook, together with slowing exports in Malaysia indicated by cargo surveyor data, sent palm oil futures down 2.5 percent this week.

"First, refining margins are negative and demand is anaemic," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The macro uncertainty over in Europe also weighed on the market plus technical indicators are bearish after having failed repeatedly to break key resistance levels."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 2.2 percent to close at 3,275 ringgit ($1,067) per tonne. Prices earlier touched a low of 3,265 ringgit, the weakest since March 8.

Traded volumes stood at 30,413 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Lower demand from major food buyers China and India contributed to the fall in shipments, while the slowing global economic growth is also a concern.

But a low global stocks of oilseeds, suggesting a tightening supply of the raw materials for competing edible oils, remains a bullish factor for palm oil.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast record exports next season for soybeans, shrinking U.S. stocks to the lowest in four years. [ID:nL4E8GB2FD]

On the local front, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, also reported April stock levels at a one-year low.

Malaysia's April palm oil stock level fell 5.4 percent to 1.85 million tonnes from a month ago, which some analysts said was at the lower range of the consensus' expectation. [GRA/]

"It was 3 percent below our estimate of 1.9 million tonnes as the tree stress effect had caused a deeper production drop than expected," Alan Lim, an analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, said in a research report.

"On the overall, the sustained drop in the stocks level below 2 million tonnes is positive for CPO prices," he said, referring to crude palm oil.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, May 11 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Friday on continued euro zone political turmoil and weak economic data from China that led investors to sell commodity-related shares.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> was down 0.7 percent, bringing its weekly loss to 3.6 percent.

Thailand's benchmark SET index <.SETI> ended a tad higher, recouping early losses as investors bought beaten down big caps after the sell off in the previous two sessions that wiped more than 3 percent off the index.

Among actively traded, Singapore's Wilmar International Ltd , the world's largest listed palm oil firm, fell 3 percent, extending Thursday's losses due to weak first quarter earnings.

In Bangkok, Banpu Pcl fell 2.6 percent to a seven-month low after the top coal miner reported a 70 percent fall in quarterly net profit.

Friday, May 11, 2012

RTRS- US sees surge in corn stocks, fewer soybeans

WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) - A record U.S. corn crop this fall will end two years of nail-biting tight supplies, the government predicted on Thursday, while its forecasts for lower-than-expected global stocks of wheat and soybeans may keep food prices high.

The U.S. Agriculture Department's first estimates for this year's harvest and next year's demand showed that domestic corn stocks will surge from a near record low this year to a seven-year high by September 2013, aided by expected record yields this year as farmers sprinted to plant an early crop.

USDA had less bountiful outlooks for other supplies, with domestic soybean inventories seen falling to 145 million bushels for the 2012/13 year from 210 million this year, with a stocks-to-use ratio "at a historically low 4.4 percent."

The 145 million is slightly more than a two-week supply. Analysts had forecast 164 million bushels.

Futures prices soared 1.9 percent for new-crop soybeans, the largest gain in 5-1/2 weeks at the Chicago Board of Trade. New-crop corn, for delivery in December, fell by 1.4 percent to $5.09-3/4 a bushel, the lowest price since March 2011.

The report threatens to extend a cycle of volatile prices, with a shortage of one crop in one year giving way to a shortage of another in the next. Food prices spiked in 2008 and have remained high and volatile since then because of the razor-thin stocks and huge demand globally, especially from a hungry China.

Although soybean prices have led the complex this year, some analysts were still betting that corn -- the grain that's been in greatest deficit -- would set the longer-term tone.

"The upshot is that corn is the locomotive that pulls the grain train, and that engine is headed south," said Charlie Sernatinger, analyst with ABN AMRO.

RTRS- ARGENTINE 2011/12 SOY HARVEST SEEN AT 40.9 MLN T VS 43.1 MLN T MONTH AGO - ROSARIO GRAINS EXCHANGE

BUENOS AIRES, May 10 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2011/12 soy output was expected to fall to 40.9 million tonnes, down from last month's estimate for 43.1 million tonnes due to poor yields caused by a drought, Rosario grains exchange said on Thursday.

It also cut its outlook for 2011/12 corn production to 19.0 million tonnes from 19.8 million tonnes in April.

RTRS- Brazil raises soy crop view after aggressive cuts

SAO PAULO, May 10 (Reuters) - The soybean forecast from Brazil's agriculture ministry on Thursday bounced back by more than a million tonnes, after the government overshot in April when it slashed more than 3 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of the drought parched crop.

The ministry's crop supply agency Conab said in its eighth forecast of Brazil's grain output that the 2011/12 (September-October) soybean crop would reach 66.7 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from the agency's April estimate of 65.6 million tonnes.

The April estimate had be cut by more than 3 million tonnes from March. [ID:nL2E8FA29Q] Brazil harvested a record 75.3 million tonnes in 2010/11.

"I was fearful of this last month," said agricultural consultant Kory Melby based in Goias. "They dropped it far too fast."

Conab did not give details on why they decided to raise their forecast after dropping it sharply in past months.

Soy futures prices have firmed since December, as markets fear dwindling stocks and strong demand for the important source of protein from China could put pressure on food prices and trigger civil unrest.

Conab said Brazil should export 31.1 million tonnes of soybean, down from the 32.99 million tonnes last year.
Drought that started in November in Brazil's southern grain states, common under La Nina weather patterns, erased over 10 million tonnes from the current crop's potential, considering the expanded area planted with soy this season.

Area planted expanded 3.5 percent from last season to a record 25 million hectares (61.8 million acres), Conab said. But average yields were a dismal 2.665 tonnes a hectare, the lowest in six years.

The southern states took the brunt of the drought. No. 3 soy growing state, Rio Grande do Sul, will put out a dismal 6.5 million tonnes, down 44 percent from the record 11.6 million last season. It is one of the last major states to harvest and it is days away from finishing.

No. 2 soy state Parana harvested 10.8 million tonnes, down 30 percent from the record 15.4 million last season.

Partially offsetting the losses in the south, No. 1 soy state Mato Grosso raised output by 6 percent to a record 21.7 million tonnes and No. 4 producer Goias rose 3.4 percent to 8.5 million tonnes, Conab data showed. The two center-west states have been done harvesting for more than a month.

RTRS- China to release 2.5 mln T state soy reserves in northeast

BEIJING, May 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's top soy importer, will offer 2.5 million tonnes of soybeans to crushers from state reserves, mainly in inland provinces in the northeast, to cut government stocks before the new harvest, industry sources said on Thursday.

Sources expected the release, which will start late May, to have only a minor impact on imports because soy plants in the country's northeast use only domestic soybeans for crushing.

"The release takes place mainly in the northeast provinces, we don't expect any major impact to crushers south of the area which use imported soy," said one industry source.

The amount of soy from 2008-2010 harvests would be offered at regular auctions at prices of 3,700-3,850 yuan ($590-$610) per tonne, lower than the 4,250 yuan per tonne for imports offered at major ports in the north.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

China Jan-April soy imports up 22.3 pct on year. [ID:nL4E8GA1QA]

China soy imports graphic: http://link.reuters.com/xuh28s

China trade suite: http://link.reuters.com/fut96s

Expensive CBOT prices to boost China state soy sales [ID:nL4E8G34JK]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

Beijing last year released about the same volume of state reserves at discounted prices to some major crushers, the release triggered cancellations of a large number of imported cargoes.

"The market has been expecting this for a while. We don't think there would be any cancellations as happened last year. Crushers are still looking for cargoes and unlike last year, when they overbooked at the time," said one senior soy trader.

Crushers have been cautious and slowed down their purchases for shipment after July as current Chicago Board of Trade prices <0#S:> would give negative crushing margins, traders said.

But the prices are attractive to crushers in the northeast, where domestic soy was priced at about 4,100 yuan per tonne.

Some crushers in northern provinces of Shandong and Hebei have since late April increased purchases from the regular state reserves, although the volume was very small - 68,328 tonnes this week.[ID:nL4E8G34JK]

The sources said that because the reserve stocks were aging, the quality of the soybeans was deteriorating.

($1 = 6.3097 yuan)

RTRS- Malaysia's April palm oil stocks down 5.4 pct-MPOB

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - - Malaysia's April palm oil stocks fell 5.4

percent to 1,848,368 tonnes from a revised 1,954,145 tonnes in March, industry

regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Thursday.

April's fall was higher than market expectations that stocks in the world's

No.2 palm oil producer likely dropped 7 percent to 1.82 million tonnes.

[PALM/POLL]

The following is a breakdown of Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters

estimates for April:

(volumes in tonnes)

April 2012 April poll April 2011 March 2012

Output 1,272,626 1,285,000 1,306,228 1,211,257

Stocks 1,848,368 1,823,000 1,670,792 1,954,145

Exports 1,331,490 1,400,000 1,349,739 1,329,640

Imports* 40,616 100,000 n/a 27,908

* Refers to Malaysian imports of mostly Indonesian crude palm oil

RTRS- India's April refined palm oil imports seen lower

NEW DELHI, May 10 (Reuters) - India's refined palm oil imports are likely to have fallen in April from March as prices rose and buyers had built up plenty of stock, traders surveyed by Reuters said.

Compared with a year ago, however, imports of the refined product are forecast to have risen a whopping 414 percent after tax changes by exporter Indonesia made crude palm oil less attractive.

The Solvent Extractors Association of India, a Mumbai-based trade body, is set to issue vegetable oil import data on Friday at a meeting that starts at 1230 pm local time.

India, the world's largest vegetable oil importer, buys mainly palm oils from Indonesia and Malaysia, and its demand can affect prices.

Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, altered taxes in October 2011 to make exports of refined oil more attractive than those of crude palm oil to promote its downstream industry.

Since November, India's refined palm oil imports have risen by 78.3 percent to 821,960 tonnes through to March.

Indian refiners' calls for retaliatory action from the government to the Indonesian move, which has reined in domestic refining and put many plants on the verge of closure, have so far proved fruitless as food inflation is high. [ID:nL4E8E51LY]

Traders' forecasts for imports of refined palm oil in April ranged between 100,000 and 175,000 tonnes, with the average at 134,000 tonnes, down 28.3 percent from March.

They also said imported refined palm oils were $40-45 per tonne costlier in April than March.

"High prices dented imports of refined palm oil," said Pradip Desai, a Mumbai-based trader.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.4 percent to close at 3,349 ringgit ($1,093) per tonne on Thursday. The market has gained nearly 5.5 percent so far this year. [ID:nL4E8GA3YY]

Imported refined palm oil was quoted at around $1,160 per tonne on a cost and freight basis on India's west coast.

About half of India's 15 million to 16 million tonnes per year of edible oils demand is met via imports. It also buys small quantities of soyoil from Argentina and Brazil.

Traders said higher imports of the refined palm oil over the average of 90,000-100,000 tonnes in 2011 would continue as long as the government did not introduce protective measures.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures fell sharply on Thursday evening as JPMorgan Chase & Co stunned investors with news that its chief investment office had incurred "significant mark-to-market losses" that it said could "easily get worse."

JPMorgan's stock fell nearly 7 percent to $38.05 in after-hours trading and dragged down shares across the entire banking sector. Its executives called an extraordinary conference call with analysts at 5 p.m. EDT where Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said "egregious" mistakes had been made.

The news from JPMorgan comes at a difficult juncture for the stock market as investors wrestle with heightened concerns about Europe's debt crisis and signs are emerging that the U.S. economic recovery may be starting to slow.

S&P 500 futures fell 11.6 points and were below fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration of the contract. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 16.75 points.

If there is nothing to reassure investors between now and the start of trade on Friday the weakness in likely to spill over into the cash market.

In a positive development, euro-zone officials said the bloc's countries are prepared to keep financing Greece until the country forms a new government. [ID:nB5E8FA01P]

The Dow's modest rise broke a six-day losing streak for the blue-chip average. But the S&P 500 could not hold enough gains to close above its April low. Still, the S&P has rebounded after falling to a two-month low near 1,340 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 19.98 points, or 0.16 percent, to close at 12,855.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 3.41 points, or 0.25 percent, to end at 1,357.99. But the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 1.07 points, or 0.04 percent, to close at 2,933.64.

The latest uncertainty surrounding Greece and the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis helped spark a drop in the S&P 500 in five of the past seven sessions, sending the benchmark index down 4 percent. While the region's difficulties persisted with the political gridlock in Greece, investors used the market's declines as a buying opportunity.

The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits fell last week, but from an upwardly revised figure from the previous week. The report follows last month's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed weak employment growth in April. [ID:nL1E8GA1I4]

Signs of softness in the U.S. economy recently have led some investors to err on the side of caution and cut back on sectors exposed to the vicissitudes of the economic cycle.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up on Thursday, snapping a string of six lower settlements, as supportive labor and trade data from the United States countered disappointing Chinese trade data and higher OPEC production.

Investors hoped for better demand for petroleum after news that U.S. initial jobless claims edged down last week. The data eased concerns about a deteriorating labor market, though the drop was from a revised higher level.[ID:nL1E8GA1I4]

The four-week moving average, considered a better measure of labor market trends, also fell.

A separate report showed the U.S. trade deficit widened in March. Exports hit a record high and imports rose, indicating firming underlying demand.

Brent crude slipped and U.S. crude gains were limited by the unsettled Greek political situation and weak Chinese trade data.

No. 2 oil consumer China saw its exports and imports in April grow at a far slower rate than forecast. [ID:nEAP307401]

Greek political parties engaged in a last-gasp attempt to form a government and avoid new elections on Thursday after recent elections plunged the debt-ridden country into crisis.

The deadlock prompted a stream of warnings by European leaders that Greece would be thrown out of the euro if it did not stick to the terms of the bailout.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude rose 27 cents, or 0.28 percent, to settle at $97.08 a barrel, having traded from $96.08, below the 200-day moving average of $96.28, and reaching $97.69.

* OPEC said its production rose in April to 31.62 million barrels per day (bpd) as Iraq and Libya ramped up. OPEC in December set its official supply target at 30 million bpd. [ID:nL5E8GA5O7]

* Saudi Arabia will supply crude oil to its customers in June at the same volume as May. [ID:nL4E8GA35D]

* Iran cut its official selling prices for June-loading crude to Asia from May as it seeks to encourage Asian buyers, but raised prices to Europe where buyers have mostly retreated, trading sources said. [ID:nL4E8GA1RD]

CBOT SOYEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose after forecasts for U.S. soybean ending stocks from the U.S. Department of Agriculture came in below trade expectations, traders said.

* Soymeal posted the biggest advances in the soy complex, gaining relative to soyoil on meal/oil spreads.

* USDA lowered its forecast of U.S. 2011/12 soybean ending stocks to 210 million bushels, down from 250 million in April and below the average trade estimate of 210 million.

* USDA projected 2012/13 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 145 million bushels, below the average trade estimate of 164 million bushels.

* USDA cut its forecast of 2011/12 soybean production in Brazil to 65 million tonnes, from 66 million in April, and cut its estimate for Argentina's crop to 42.5 million tonnes, from 45 million in April.

* The Rosario grains exchange lowered its estimate of Argentina's 2011/12 soybean crop to 40.9 million tonnes, from 43.1 million last month, due to drought. [ID:nE6E7NC01Z]

* However, Brazil's agriculture ministry raised its projection for the country's soy crop to 66.7 million tonnes, from an April estimate of 65.6 million. [ID:nL1E8GA136]

* USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.827 million tonnes (old and new crop years combined), above trade expectations for 1.2 million to 1.4 million tonnes.

* USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 235,500 tonnes, above trade expectations, and weekly soyoil sales at 30,100 tonnes, below expectations.

* China will offer 2.5 million tonnes of soybeans to crushers from state reserves, mainly in inland provinces in the northeast, to cut government stocks before the new harvest, industry sources said. [ID:nL4E8GA7J5]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Thursday, as traders bet on lower palm oil stocks, although gains were capped by lingering euro zone fears and slower exports of the edible oil this month.

The market, which has gained nearly 5.5 percent so far this year, drew support from an industry report that showed palm oil stocks in No.2 producer Malaysia fell to a one-year low.

But trading was volatile this week after polls in France and Greece threatened to put euro zone bailout programme at risk, while the latest Chinese trade data showed signs that the world's No.2 economy could be slowing down. [ID:nEAP307401]

There could be some price declines in the days to come after cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a 14.2 percent drop in May 1-10 Malaysian palm oil exports compared to a month ago, suggesting the slowing economy may be curbing demand.

"The market is looking at the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) report today, market is a little bit positive on that," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Because of external factors such as emerging issues in Europe, the market has been very uncertain. The USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) report will add to the volatility too, market should be trading in the 3,300-3,400 ringgit range for the next two days."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.4 percent to close at 3,349 ringgit ($1,093) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 27,230 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots as volumes picked up after the midday break.

Malaysia's April palm oil stocks fell 5.4 percent to 1.85 million tonnes from a month ago, said industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board after the midday break. [ID:nL4E8GA2VA]

While that puts stock level slightly higher than the expected 1.82 million tonnes, it is still at a one-year low and likely to push palm oil prices higher. [PALM/POLL]

Malaysian palm oil exports for May 1-10 fell by 6 percent compared to a month ago, said another cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, reflecting lower demand from major food buyer China and India.

Market players are watching the monthly planting report for soybeans that will be issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture later on Thursday. A smaller soybean crop for crushing into competing soybean oil will support palm oil prices.

Singapore's Wilmar International Ltd , the world's largest listed palm oil firm, posted a surprise 34 percent drop in quarterly earnings on Thursday, hurt by losses at its largely China-based oilseeds and grains business. [ID:nL4E8G9ABV]

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, May 10 (Reuters) - Thai shares fell to three-week lows while Philippine stocks hit their lowest in almost two weeks on Thursday, led down by index heavyweights amid concerns over debt problems in Europe.

Most other Southeast Asian stock markets recouped early losses.

Thailand's main SET index <.SETI> fell 1.38 percent, extending its loss for a second day to 1,190.65, the lowest close since April 23. The Philippine index <.PSI> ended down 0.4 percent at 5,192.10, the lowest close since April 30.

Indonesia saw outflows for three consecutive sessions to Wednesday for a combined $129 million and Thailand posted $76 million in outflows on Wednesday, after taking in $62 million in inflows in past two sessions, Thomson Reuters data showed.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell for the fifth day in six on Wednesday as investors kept their focus on the turmoil in Europe, but news that Greece will receive its latest debt bailout payment helped cut losses late in the session.

In the afternoon the Nasdaq briefly turned positive and the S&P rose to break-even after news that Greece will get 5.2 billion euros in emergency aid. [ID:nB5E8FA01M]

The turmoil in Europe has driven Wall Street's slide and more investors were hedging against potential further losses. The Dow fell for a sixth straight day and the S&P touched a two-month low before cutting losses.

"It's a very difficult market to trade in. I'm advising my clients to just hedge out all the way into July because we are going to see some heightened volatility like today for awhile," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond climbed above 6 percent, seen as a troublesome level among investors, after Spain said it will demand banks set aside another 35 billion euros ($45 billion) against loans to the ailing building sector. Huge bank losses have raised fears that the country may need an international bailout. [ID:nL5E8G8H7H]

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> finished down 97.03 points, or 0.75 percent, at 12,835.06. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 9.14 points, or 0.67 percent, at 1,354.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 11.56 points, or 0.39 percent, at 2,934.71.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged down on Wednesday in choppy trading on the way to a sixth straight lower close, ending well above its intraday low as falling fuel stocks and technical support at the 200-day moving average countered pressure from rising crude oil stockpiles.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose 3.65 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report, more than analyst expectations. [EIA/S]

But the inventory boost in the EIA data was much less than rise of 7.8 million barrels reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. [API/S]

Crude stocks were expected to have risen 2 million barrels, with gasoline seen down 100,000 barrels and distillate stocks were expected to be up 100,000 barrels.

Supportive to crude futures was a decision by the board of the European Financial Stability Facility on Wednesday to make a payment of 5.2 billion euros in emergency aid to Greece, overcoming opposition from some euro zone member states. [ID:nL5E8G9D4G]

The post-election turmoil in Greece, with politicians still unable to form a coalition government on Wednesday, and France's choice of a new president, had roiled markets and pressured crude prices this week.

U.S. crude slipped below its 200-day moving average of $96.29 intraday , but recovered to settle well above that level.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, June crude fell 20 cents, or 0.21 percent, to settle at $96.81 a barrel, having traded from $95.17 to $97.39.

* Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said there is a surplus of oil in the market. "There is a surplus oil in the market. There is surplus supply," he said in brief comments to reporters. [ID:nT9E8FA00E]

* Iran has authorized private Iranian exporters to sell up to 20 percent of its crude exports in a move intended to help skirt international sanctions, the head of the traders' union said. [ID:nL5E8G957K]

* Greece moved closer to a second snap election when the head of the biggest party launched a new attack on leftist Alexis Tsipras, saying his plans for a new government would push the country out of the euro zone. [ID:nL5E8G90JC]

* China will cut gasoline and diesel prices by about 3 percent from Thursday in response to declines in crude oil prices, although the moderate cut is expected to be unlikely to be sufficient to stimulate demand much. [ID:nL4E8G97GY]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a third day on fund long liquidation ahead of a monthly U.S. government crop report, traders said.

* Funds hold a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans, leaving the market vulnerable to long liquidation.

* Soybeans also influenced by broad risk-aversion trade in commodities as the dollar firmed on concern about political disarray in Greece and the euro zone debt crisis. The Thomson Reuters CRB index <.CRB> of 19 commodities was down 0.15 percent by the CBOT close but pared losses after hitting a seven-month low.

* Soymeal and soyoil followed soybeans lower. Soyoil extended its losing streak to 10 straight sessions.

* Trade expects USDA in its monthly supply/demand report on Thursday to show tightening U.S. and global soy stocks for 2011/12 along with smaller South American harvests, but global stocks may rebound in 2012/13. [ID:nL1E8G7HEY]

* CBOT reported 337 deliveries against the May soybean contract, with the Term house account stopping 290 lots. CBOT reported no soymeal deliveries and 641 soyoil deliveries.

* Bearish chart signals add pressure in soybeans. Following a key reversal to the downside last week, benchmark July soybeans broke below a key trendline on Tuesday, rupturing channel support that has been growing since early 2012. [ID:nL1E8G8E2W]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Wednesday as heightened political risk in Europe raised concerns about demand and deterred traders who remained sidelined ahead of a slew of industry data due to be released the following day.

Election results in France and Greece that threatened to put euro zone austerity measures in jeopardy limited buying interest in palm oil futures, cutting gains this year to 5 percent.

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will issue official stocks and output numbers for April on Thursday, which market players expect to be lower than the month before.

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.5 percent to close at 3,335 ringgit ($1,087) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 23,210 lots of 25 tonnes each, thinner than the usual 25,000 lots, as investors were looking for further cues to enter the market.

"Currently it's more like a positioning ahead of the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) data and the USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) report," said Ker Chung Yang, an analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"The market is moving according to the dynamics in the macroeconomics. So after what happened in France and Greece, there are still concerns that the measures laid out by the European Union will be overturned."

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will issue export numbers for the first 10 days of May on Thursday. [PALM/ITS][PALM/SGS]

Exports jumped by almost 10 percent in April on strong demand from major buyers China, India and Europe. Traders will be monitoring demand trends from major food buyers for signs on restocking.

On the supply front, April stocks should continue a downtrend and stay below the psychological 2-million-tonne mark as exports ate into stocks, a Reuters median survey showed on Monday. [ID:nL4E8G79FP]

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will also be releasing its monthly planting report for soybeans on Thursday. A smaller soybean crop for crushing into competing soybean oil will be supportive for palm oil prices.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, May 9 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks fell on Wednesday as Asian investors continued to worry over political disarray in Greece and the euro zone's debt problems.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> fell 1.06 percent to a three-month low while Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> dropped 1.24 percent to its lowest in a month.

Across the region, commodities-related shares came under selling pressure, with market players turning cautious on the prospect of their earnings.

Jakarta-based Bahana Securities has cut its 2012 target for Jakarta's Composite Index to 4,500 from 4,600, reflecting worse than expected first quarter earnings and falling commodities prices, Harry Su, head of research said. The index closed at 4,129.06 on Wednesday.

"Commodities prices have been falling and we expect things to actually become worse in the second quarter. For this commodities players, we're expecting to be worse for the second quarter results," he said.