RTRS- US farmers to trim corn plantings next year - Farm Futures

CHICAGO, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers plan to cut their corn plantings in 2013 to 93.06 million acres and boost their soybean seedings, according to a survey by Farm Futures Magazine.

The survey of around 1,800 farmers pegged next year's soybean plantings at 78.05 million acres.

"Ironically, this shift from corn to soybeans mirrors a similar shift taking place in South America as well, casting doubts on the world’s ability to rebuild tight global feed grain stocks without a significant shift in global weather patterns to boost yields in 2013,” Farm Futures market analyst Arlan Suderman said in a statement.

U.S. wheat acreage was forecast at 57.05 million, largely due to expectations for increased seedings of soft red winter wheat in the eastern Midwest and South.

"These results tell us that growers would like to get their rotations back in balance after pushing corn in recent years," said Bryce Knorr, senior editor at Farm Futures.

Expenses for next year's crop do not look like they will increase much, Knorr added.

U.S. farmers planted 96.4 million acres of corn in 2012, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department. Expectations of a huge crop followed an early planting, which allowed growers to seed the biggest corn acreage since 1937, but a drought ravaged the crop throughout the summer and cut back harvest expectations.

USDA reported soybean plantings at 76.1 million acres and wheat plantings at 56 million acres this year.

RTRS- China faces soybean import squeeze -Oil World

HAMBURG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - China will have to cut its giant soybean imports in coming months because of tighter supplies after drought reduced crops in the United States and South America, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“For Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013 we estimate that Chinese soybean imports will have to be reduced by 4 to 5 million tonnes from the 27.5 million tonnes imported in the same six months of a year earlier,” Oil World said.

U.S. corn and soybean prices hit record highs this summer as scorching temperatures and a relentless drought ravaged crops in the United States, while drought also caused large drops in Argentine and Brazilian soybean harvests. GRA/

China accounted for 61 percent of global soybean imports in the first half of 2012, Oil World said.

The Chinese government is likely to increase sales of state soybean reserves to compensate for lower imports, Oil World said.

“In addition, China is likely to raise imports of Canadian canola (rapeseed) above its year-ago level in the next six months,” it said.

It added: “The prospective steep decline in soybean imports will result in a massive reduction of total Chinese soybean stocks below last year’s level as of end-February 2013, enforcing considerably higher imports in the second half of the 2012/13 season.”

This means the big South American crops looming in early 2013 will face major pent-up demand from China, it said.

Oil World forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop in early 2013 will rise to 82.0 million tonnes from 66.40 million tonnes in early 2012.

Argentina’s 2013 crop is likely to rise to 56.0 million tonnes from 40.50 million tonnes, it said.

RTRS- Surge in soybean prices not yet over -Oil World

HAMBURG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Global soybean prices have still not exhausted their upward potential following new highs because supply shortages mean demand will be squeezed in coming months, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

U.S. soybeans hit new contract highs this week after key tour of experts in the Pro Farmer team concluded the drought damage to the U.S. soybean crop is worse than U.S. government forecasts. GRA/

“They (soybeans) have further upward potential in the near to medium term on bullish fundamentals,” Oil World said. “Futures prices are vulnerable to temporary setbacks on profit-taking. But these setbacks are likely to be limited, particularly as long as demand has not been sufficiently rationed.”

U.S. soybean and corn futures hit record highs this summer as scorching temperatures and drought ravaged crops in the U.S., while drought also cut soybean harvests in giant exporters Brazil and Argentina.

“The global supply tightness of soybeans is unprecedented and will result in a decline in world exports by approximately 8-9 million tonnes in Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013 as well as in unusually small world stocks of soybeans in early 2013,” Oil World said.

“However, relief will come from a bumper South American soybean crop which under favourable weather conditions could be boosted to 152 million tonnes in early 2013 from the drought-reduced 116 million tonnes in early 2012.”

But in the meantime, supplies are shrinking.

Soybean stocks in Brazil, usually the second largest exporter after the United States, are forecast by Oil World to fall to 15.59 million tonnes on Sept. 1 from 26.15 million tonnes on Sept. 1, 2011.

Sept. 1 soybean stocks in the second largest exporter Argentina will fall to 18.50 million tonnes from 26.10 million tonnes this time last year, it estimates.

Demand will have to adjust in the time before the new South American harvests arrive in early 2013, Oil World said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended little changed in another day of scarce activity on Tuesday after mixed economic data gave investors little reason to shift their focus from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday.

The Fed chief is scheduled to address a conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and could announce new measures to boost growth. While Bernanke is expected to keep alive expectations for a third round of major bond buying by the Fed, or quantitative easing, he could keep markets guessing about the actual timing.

Volume was among the lightest of the year after Monday's lightest trading in 2012. August is a slow season, and investors mostly stayed on the sidelines, anticipating Bernanke's speech.

"I don't think you can read a lot from what's going on in the market right now," said John Fox, co-manager of the FAM Value Fund, in Cobleskill, New York. "Because there's nothing going on, everyone is waiting for the speech on Friday."

The latest sign of slowing in the global economy added to expectations for more central bank stimulus. Japan cut its assessment of economic growth, citing a deceleration in U.S. and Chinese demand for Japanese exports.

U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in August to its lowest in nine months as Americans turned more pessimistic about the short-term outlook, according to the Conference Board.

But in another report, the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas showed U.S. home prices rose for a fifth consecutive month, a sign of slow improvement in the housing sector. (Full Story)

Among the day's biggest gainers, Lexmark International Inc LXK.N jumped 13.7 percent to $21.62 after it said it would stop making inkjet printers, cut about 1,700 jobs, and focus on its more profitable imaging and software businesses.

The NYSEArca computer hardware index .HWI rose 1.2 percent. Shares of Hewlett Packard HPQ.N, which has a substantial portion of inkjet sales, were down 1.8 percent at $16.90.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 21.68 points, or 0.17 percent, at 13,102.99. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX slipped 1.14 points, or 0.08 percent, at 1,409.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC edged down 3.95 points, or 0.13 percent, at 3,077.14.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Tuesday as Hurricane Isaac approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, forcing companies in the region to close down oil production platforms and refineries.

 

CBOT SOYBEAN- Aug 28 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on Tuesday, erasing early losses on news of fresh sales of U.S. soybeans to China and expectations of continued export demand, traders said.

• Soybean futures turned lower at times on long liquidation and profit-taking after Monday's contract highs.

• CBOT soymeal futures followed soybeans higher on concerns about U.S. and global supplies of the high-protein animal feed, while soyoil fell for a second day.

• USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13. (Full Story)

• Global soybean prices have still not exhausted their upward potential following new highs because supply shortages mean demand will be squeezed in coming months - analysts Oil World. (Full Story)

• China will have to cut its giant soybean imports in coming months because of tighter supplies after drought reduced crops in the United States and South America - Oil World. (Full Story)

• Torrential rain and flooding from Hurricane Isaac will bring relief to a large chunk of drought-stricken cropland but will stall early harvest of corn, soybeans and rice - meteorologist. (Full Story) (Full Story)

• A Farm Futures Magazine survey indicated U.S. farmers would plant less corn and more soybeans in 2013. The survey projected 2013 soybean plantings at 78.05 million acres, up from 76.1 million in 2012. (Full Story)

• USDA late Monday said 8 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves, a sign of maturity, ahead of the five-year average of 4 percent.

 

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slid on Tuesday as investors took profit after the market hit a six-week high the previous session, with traders watching for a big stocks build-up to weigh on prices.

Palm oil, which has lost more than 4 percent this year, is moving in tandem with the U.S. soy complex, where investors have unwound bullspreads after the market recently hit a record as the worst drought in 56 years ravaged crops.

A smaller supply of soybeans to be crushed into edible oil and strong palm oil production in coming months has widened palm's discount to soyoil to more than $250 per tonne.

But palm oil stocks in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, are set to rise to more than 2.3 million tonnes, traders said, as production outpaces export growth in the second half of the year.

"I sold off this morning. Palm oil is surviving on borrowed strength of soyoil markets," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

The benchmark November 2012 contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 2.1 percent to 3,029 ringgit ($970). The previous day, the contract hit 3,122 ringgit, a level last seen on July 17.

Total traded volume stood at 22,029 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell slightly in a lacklustre session on Tuesday as investors trimmed positions in risky assets amid worries about global growth, with Vietnam coming off the day's low as beaten-down bank stocks rebounded after recent sell offs.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index .VNI eased 0.11 percent, falling 1.7 percent at one point, as concerns over banking risks appeared subdued. Military Bank MBB.HM, which was among the actively traded, gained 1.5 percent after a 10.2 percent drop since last Monday.

Vietnamese shares lost a net 12.24 percent over the past six sessions following the arrests of Asia Commercial Bank's ACB.HN top executives that have kept retail investors bearish.

The Philippines .PSI edged up 0.63 percent, reopening after a market holiday. Indonesia .JKSE was down 0.07 percent. Jakarta resumed trading after being halted by technical problems on Monday.

RTRS- Refiners to pay less for palm in Malaysia's top producing state -paper

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Refiners in Malaysia's top oil palm growing state of Sabah will pay millers less for edible oil from next month to preserve margins and better compete with Indonesia, the Business Times reported on Monday, in a move likely to hit planters' revenues.

The daily newspaper cited IJM Plantations IJMP.KL CEO Joseph Tek as saying that refiners in the Borneo island state want to more than double the discount on a tonne of crude palm oil to 80-100 ringgit from 40 ringgit ($12.90).

The move is a reaction to top producer Indonesia slashing export taxes on processed palm last year to jump start its refining industry, allowing Malaysia's long-time competitor to offer cheaper shipments and grab market share.

"This higher discount is being introduced by the refiners and will mean millers get lower sales proceeds. It will eventually cascade through to planters as well," Tek was quoted as saying.

"In a way, if this continues, it will affect IJM Plantations as well. We will make 40 ringgit to 60 ringgit less per tonne of crude palm oil that we produce from September onwards," Tek said.

The current discount puts crude palm oil selling prices at 2,970 Ringgit. With the new discount, prices would stand at about 2,930 ringgit per tonne.

The discount system is unique to Sabah. It was imposed in the early days of Malaysia's oil palm expansion in the 1970s and 1980s when the state did not have any refineries and had to ship palm oil to mainland Malaysia for processing.

But the system persisted even as refiners sprang up on Sabah, with millers continuing to have no choice but to accept the "forced discount".

Tek could not be immediately reached for comment but other Sabah millers confirmed that refiners will pay less for crude palm oil starting in September.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Shares of Apple climbed to another record on Monday, keeping the Nasdaq index afloat in the lowest trading volume of the year, with investors looking ahead to a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday.

Apple Inc AAPL.O hit an all-time high of $680.87 during the day after the iPad maker won a $1 billion judgment in a patent lawsuit against Samsung Electronics 005930.KS. The Korean company said it would contest the verdict. Apple, the world's most valuable company, ended up 1.9 percent at $676.68. (Full Story)

The verdict on Friday jolted shares of Google Inc GOOG.O, as the case could change the dynamics of the mobile device market. Companies using Google's Android system may have to consider design changes. Google shares declined 1.4 percent to $669.22.

Beyond the notable moves of those tech giants, investors mostly cooled their heels before Bernanke's remarks to central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.

Data showed volume was 4.46 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex. The year-to-date average is about 6.6 billion.

Expectations are for Fed action of some kind next month, but Bernanke is likely to keep markets guessing about the timing of another round of bond purchases.

"The big upswing in the equity market that we've seen is based on the belief the Fed is going to do something and that Bernanke is going to say sooner rather than later that he's willing to commit to further easing," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto.

"But I don't think he's got the policy support within the Fed to do that, so the markets are set for some more correction here."

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 33.30 points, or 0.25 percent, at 13,124.67. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 0.69 points, or 0.05 percent, at 1,410.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 3.40 points, or 0.11 percent, at 3,073.19.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Monday, retreating after rising more than $1 as Tropical Storm Isaac shuttered Gulf Coast refineries, curbing crude oil demand, and with expectations that western governments might tap oil reserves also pressuring crude prices.  

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.7 percent on profit-taking from contract highs, and ideas that weekend showers in the U.S. Midwest and forecasts for more this week could help late-seeded crops, traders said.

* Weakening cash basis bids at soy processors in the interior Midwest, especially Iowa, added pressure. GRA/M

• The front eight soybean contracts set contract highs, as did most soybean contracts except spot September, before turning lower.

• Tropical Storm Isaac was due to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast between Florida and Louisiana Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Cargill Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co shut down some of their export elevators in Louisiana as a precaution.

• Barge traffic between Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and the U.S. Gulf was suspended due to the threat from Isaac, the Crescent River Port Pilots Association said. (Full Story)

• Argentine growers are set to plant corn and soy under ideal conditions over the next two months thanks to record August rainfall.

• Forward sales of Brazilian soybeans rose to 43 percent of expected 2012/13 output, up from 42 percent the previous week and up from 14 percent a year ago, analyst Celeres said.
• USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 17.407 million bushels, below trade estimates for 20 million to 24 million, traders said.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose to a 6-week high on Monday, as traders continued to bet on tight global edible oil supplies with no sign of the drought easing in the soy-producing U.S. Midwest.

U.S. new-crop soybeans hit a contract high on Monday after farm newsletter Pro Farmer estimated U.S. soybean production would be worse than forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. GRA/

A smaller supply of soybeans to be crushed into soybean oil had widened palm oil's discount to soybean oil to above $250 per tonne, shifting more demand to the cheaper tropical oil.

"There's a lot more upside for crude palm oil prices because so far palm oil has been lagging behind soybean oil," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.

"The second thing is that there could be new stimulus measures coming out from China and the U.S. that could boost sentiment."

The benchmark November 2012 contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.7 percent to close at 3,091 ringgit ($994) per tonne after touching an intraday high at 3,122 ringgit, a level last seen since July 17.

Total traded volumes stood at 25,999 lots of 25 tonnes each, just slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Shares in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand edged lower after a rangebound session and light trade on Monday, wary of global economic outlook, while lingering concerns over risks in the banking system further depressed Vietnamese stocks.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index .VNI dropped 3.4 percent to 386.19 points, the lowest close since Jan. 30, led down by financial stocks. It lost 7.8 percent last week but was still up 9.9 percent this year.

The arrest of Asia Commercial Bank's ACB.HN co-founder Nguyen Duc Kien on Aug. 20 and then of chief executive Ly Xuan Hai on Aug. 23 have kept market investors cautious about spreading financial risks.

RTRS- UPDATE 1-Brazil's new soy harvest, exports to set record-Abiove

SAO PAULO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Brazil's grain industry association Abiove expects the world's No. 2 soy producer to turn out a record new crop of 81.3 million tonnes, possibly surpassing output from the drought-stricken United States for the first time, Abiove said on Friday.


Increased output should cause exports of the crop that will be planted starting from Sept. 15 to soar to 37.5 million tonnes, beating the previous 33.8-million-tonne export record from the 2010/11 crop.

A record 2012/2013 soybean harvest from Brazil would be welcomed by global policymakers since drought in the top-producing United States has driven up future prices and stirred up memories of the 2008 food riots.

Spot soybeans Sc1 rose 1 percent in Chicago on Friday, close to an all-time high ahead of final crop estimates from the Pro Farmer tour of the dry U.S. Midwest. (Full Story)

"Brazil will be the largest producer in the world if the United States doesn't recover from the averse climate," Abiove said in a report.

Abiove also raised slightly its export forecast for the 2011/2012 crop that finished harvest in May to 30.5 million tonnes from 30 million tonnes in its previous forecast.

Most of the exports from the meager 66.6-million-tonne crop have already been shipped. Sales abroad slipped to 4.13 million tonnes in July, down 15 percent from June. (Full Story)

June through September are typically the peak export month for soybeans, but lower output from Brazil and worries about dwindling supplies after the U.S. drought encouraged earlier sales this year.

Abiove does not explain why it adjusts its estimates, which are based on a survey of associated crushing plants.

RTRS- El Nino may spur early planting in Brazil after dry August

SAO PAULO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - After a dry August, El Nino rains could jump-start a bumper grain crop in Brazil, the world's No. 2 soybean producer, and ease fears of a global food shortage.

After two years of irregular rainfall over Brazil's grain belt during the La Nina ocean/climate phenomenon, warmer surface waters off the coast of Peru associated with El Nino have raised hopes of steadier, more abundant showers starting in September.

Analysts expect an unprecedented soybean comeback in Brazil this year, with weather forecasts, prices and a favorable exchange rate encouraging bets on soy after drought left a disappointing 65-million-tonne crop last season. (Full Story)

On the low side, Minas Gerais-based analyst Celeres expects Brazil's overall soy crop to produce a record 78.1 million tonnes, while Safras e Mercado foresees an 82.3-million-tonne crop. The government starts official forecasts in October.

"An El Nino year means above-average rainfall in the center and south of Brazil," said Flavio Franca Jr, chief soy analyst at Safras. "We are expecting the harvest to be much better than last year, which is probable because the climate was so awful."

A record 2012/2013 soybean harvest from Brazil, especially an early one, would be welcomed by global policymakers since drought in the top-producing United States has driven up future prices Sc1 and stirred up memories of the 2008 food riots.

Though planting soy before Sept. 15 is against the law in Brazil, where the government enforces measures to contain the spread of Asian rust fungus, farmers try to plant corn in August, rain permitting.

"We've had farmers calling to say they are planting corn. With rains possibly returning in September, they are planting the first corn crop to take advantage of rains that will be constant until November," said weather forecaster Olivia Nunes of Sao Paulo-based Somar Meteorologia.

The organization of farming cooperatives Ocepar in No. 2 soybean producing state Parana estimates planting will start on S e pt. 21 for 40 percent of farmland, manager Flavio Turra said.

RISKS AND REWARDS

Producers in Parana that planted soy early last year suffered most from the drought later in the season, but higher prices and the likely rains from El Nino help to justify the risk this year, Ocepar's Turra said.

Farmers in neighboring Argentina, to the south, have already seen unusually early rain this year. With the pampas farmland on track for t h e wettest August on record, they also plan to start planting corn, and perhaps soy, earlier than expected after drought parched crops last year there.(Full Story)

But farmers in Brazil still have no hard evidence of rain. A dry August in Brazil's grain belt has some doubting this year will be different from the past two, when soybean planting did not start until at least late October.

"We are still in a transition between El Nino and La Nina," said Marcelo Garrido, an economist at Parana's state agriculture agency Deral. "Parana is in a longer drought period. It still hasn't rained in August."

A grains trader in Mato Grosso confirmed a dry August in center-west Brazil, where grain planting starts before moving south. But that isn't stopping farmers from forward selling the crop faster than ever before, he said. (Full Story)

Brazil collected a record, high-yielding crop in 2010 even after La Nina climate delayed planting.

Harvest was put off from December until February that year, slowing delivery to ports. Delays could be a bigger concern in a year Brazil's soy exports may be needed to ward off a food shortage abroad.

An early soy harvest in Brazil is also important for farmers hoping to sow a second corn crop. They can start planting corn as early as January in the same fields from which they harvest their soybeans.

Brazil brought in a record 72.8-million-tonne corn crop this year thanks to a strong second crop, and the United States has been importing Brazilian corn, as it faces an expected shortage.

RTRS- UPDATE 1-Pro Farmer sees US corn, soy harvest lowest since 2003

CHICAGO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn and soybean harvest will be smaller than the government is predicting due to the devastating drought that crippled crop production across the Midwest, Pro Farmer said on Friday.

The farm newsletter predicted U.S. corn production at 10.478 billion bushels, based on a yield of 120.25 bushels per acre. That compares with the U.S. Agriculture Department's latest forecast of a 10.779 billion bushel crop on a yield of 123.4 bushels per acre.

Soybean production was seen at 2.60 billion bushels on a yield of 34.8 bushels per acre, Pro Farmer said. Earlier this month, USDA pegged the soybean harvest at 2.692 billion bushels and yield at 36.1 bushels per acre.

If the forecast is realized, both crops would be the smallest since 2003. The low yields promise to tighten up world supplies and add to food inflation around the world.

Pro Farmer released its estimate following its annual crop tour, which surveyed more than 2,200 corn and soybean fields in Midwest states that accounted for 73 percent of U.S. corn production in 2011 and 66 percent of soybean production.

In Iowa, the top producer of both corn and soybeans, Pro Farmer pegged corn yields at 139 per bushels per acre as the corn went through its yield-determining phase of growth in scorching temperatures and parched soils.

"Iowa’s early start to the growing season turned into a mid-season nightmare for corn trying to pollinate and fill kernels," a Pro Farmer news release said.

Soybean yields in Iowa were forecast at 41 bushels per acre. Pro Farmer said the state's soybeans were the "least bad" of the western Corn Belt.

Corn and soybean prices rose this week -- with soybeans posting a 5.2 percent gain -- as reports from the tour trickled in, underlining the damage done by the worst drought in more than half a century.



Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Friday on news the European Central Bank is considering setting targets in a new bond-buying program that could help contain euro-zone borrowing costs and on hopes of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Despite the day's advance, the S&P 500 broke a six-week string of gains. For the week, the benchmark index fell 0.5 percent. Conflicting perceptions of the Fed's commitment to provide more stimulus took a toll on the market this week.

Investor sentiment received a lift on Friday from U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the Fed has room to deliver additional monetary stimulus to boost the U.S. economy. Bernanke made the comment in a letter to a congressional oversight panel. (Full Story)

The letter comes a week ahead of the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Bernanke and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak.

The ECB is discussing yield-band targets under a new bond-buying program to let it shield its strategy and avoid speculators trying to cash in, central bank sources told Reuters on Friday. Any decision would not be made before the ECB's Sept. 6 policy meeting. (Full Story)

"If there can be a nice balance of stimulus that keeps interest rates low, as opposed to throwing more debt at the problems in Europe, and some level of austerity, Europe can get out of this tangle. But that balance is really the key," said Bryant Evans, investment advisor and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management, in Champaign, Illinois.

The market's gains were fairly broad. The S&P financial index .GSPF rose 0.6 percent, with shares of American Express AXP.N up 1.9 percent at $57.49. The S&P consumer discretionary index .GSPD climbed 0.8 percent, with shares of Amazon.com AMZN.O up 1.9 percent at $245.74. During the session, Amazon's stock hit a lifetime intraday high of $246.87.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 100.51 points, or 0.77 percent, to end at 13,157.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX added 9.05 points, or 0.65 percent, to 1,411.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 16.39 points, or 0.54 percent, to close at 3,069.79.

Volume was the second lowest for a full day this year, with 4.6 billion shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex. The year-to-date average is 6.6 billion.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Friday following a trade journal report that the International Energy Agency may release strategic oil reserves as early as September after dropping its resistance to a U.S.-led plan.

 

CBOT SOYBEAN- New-crop soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1 percent, halting a two-day slide on concerns about tightening U.S. supplies and unrelenting demand from exporters and domestic processors, traders said.

* The United States is the world's primary soy supplier until the next South American harvest arrives in early 2013.

• After the CBOT close, newsletter Pro Farmer projected U.S. 2012 soybean production at 2.6 billion bushels, below the USDA's outlook for 2.692 billion, following a week-long crop tour. (Full Story)

• Traders were also monitoring Typhoon Bolaven, which is forecast to reach mainland China by the middle of next week, potentially threatening the country's soybean and corn crops.

• Benchmark CBOT November soybeans SX2 ended the week up more than 5 percent, the contract's fourth straight weekly rise and the ninth in 10 weeks as the worst drought in five decades scorched U.S. Midwest crops.

• Gains limited by softening cash bids for soybeans in the interior Midwest and the U.S. Gulf following a pick-up in farmer sales this week. (Full Story) (Full Story)

• Brazilian grain industry association Abiove projected Brazil's 2012/13 soybean production at a record 81.3 million tonnes, possibly surpassing output from the United States. (Full Story)

• After a dry August, El Nino rains could jump-start a bumper grain crop in Brazil, the world's No. 2 soybean producer, and ease fears of a global food shortage. (Full Story)

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged higher on Friday, rising 3.6 percent in a second straight weekly gain as global oilseed supply fears and rising export demand supported prices.

A crop tour continued to give evidence of the devastation caused by the U.S. grain belt's worst drought in half a century, which has lifted soybean prices to all-time highs in recent weeks. Fears of tighter soybean oil supply have spurred a shift in vegetable oil demand to the cheaper palm oil. (Full Story)

Corn and soy fields in Iowa, the No.1 growing state for both crops, have fallen victim to the historic drought, which is expected to drag national yields below the government's latest projections, according to the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

"The market is trying to catch up with soyoil, especially as its premium over palm oil is at more than $250 per tonne," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Exports should improve further. The market has further room to move higher, it is still trading in a tight range of 3,050-3,100 ringgit."

The benchmark November 2012 contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.3 percent to close at 3,069 ringgit ($990) per tonne. Prices hit a high of 3,100 ringgit on Thursday, a level last seen on July 17.

Futures notched up a gain of 3.6 percent this week, the best weekly performance since July.

Total traded volumes stood at 26,872 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock indexes ended lower on Friday as doubts about possible stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve prompted a broad sell-off, while Vietnam snapped a three-day losing streak as support from regulators eased concerns of banking risks.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index .VNI advanced 1.8 percent, regaining some lost ground from a drop of 10.5 percent over the past three sessions after police arrested the former chief executive officer of Asia Commercial Bank ACB.HN.

Some Vietnamese banking shares rebounded after investor confidence has been restored, with stocks of Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank STB.HM, among actively traded issue on the Ho Chi Minh bourse, up 2.03 percent.

Vietnam's key stock index posted its biggest weekly fall in over three months of 7.8 percent, the worst performer in the region. The Philippine index .PSI was the second worst, falling 1.2 percent on the week.

RTRS- Syngenta sees possible soybean seed shortage in Brazil

SAO PAULO, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Plans to plant a record soybean crop in Brazil could leave the No. 2 producer with a seed and pesticide shortage, the local head of Syngenta SYNN.VX, the world's largest agrochemicals company, said on Thursday.

Brazil's area of soybeans to be planted in 2012/2013 will likely surpass the 24.8 million hectares (61.3 million acres) last year by 2 million hectares, or 8 percent, as farmers eye record-high soybean future prices SX2, Laercio Giampani of Switzerland-based Syngenta said.

Brazil has transformed into an agricultural powerhouse in recent years, but hopes of surpassing the United States and becoming the world's top soybean producer could prove elusive due to lack of planning and infrastructure limitations.

The country's soybean seed demand will likely increase by more than 2 million bags, and most seed suppliers in the country have already cleared their inventory for the season, Giampani told Reuters.

"There will be an increased demand and we are looking at the possibility of having a lack of certain products in Brazil," he said just a few weeks before planting begins.

"If we have an unusual attack of insects or a disease, we may have a lack of pesticides," he added.

A drought resulted in a drop in output of Brazil's 2011/2012 soybean crop, and farmers are aiming for a comeback this year. They are choosing soybeans over cotton and corn, which are more expensive to produce and ship.

Grains markets are looking to Brazil to step up and help fill the gap in global supplies left by the worst drought in more than 50 years over the U.S. grain belt, the largest producer and exporter of soybeans and corn.

Local producers will not literally run out of seed but they could be forced to turn to less than optimal varieties such as beans harvested from the previous crop that were never intended for planting, which will lead to a drop yields typically.

RTRS- UPDATE 1-US crops may get a welcome drink next week

"The biggest change is for improved rainfall amounts next week starting at mid-week. Most of the Midwest will receive some rains of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with local areas getting up to 3.00 inches," said Andy Karst, a meteorologist for World Weather Inc. "Previously it looked like 0.25 to 0.75 inch."

After weeks of relentless heat stress from the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century, deteriorating corn and soybean crops were getting some relief by light rains during the past few days.

"This week we saw a decline in drought in the lower 48 states for the third week in a row, but the overall decline was small," said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist for the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska.

"Last week drought covered 62.46 percent of the area, and this week 61.77 percent was in drought," he said.

Fuchs said the weekly Drought Monitor released on Thursday showed a one-in-50-year drought was under way in the United States, and no significant letup was in sight from the devastating impact on crops and livestock.

The moderating weather this week and next week came too late to help much of the corn crop which had been planted early and bore the brunt of high heat and drought this summer. Some late-planted soybeans may benefit from the turn to cooler and damper weather.

Cooler temperatures were keeping the evaporation rates lower than the rapid disappearance of moisture during the hottest July ever.

Temperatures should remain in the 70s to 80s degrees Fahrenheit Thursday through the middle of next week, then rise to the low 90s, Karst said.

Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Thursday said better-than-expected rains of a half to one inch were received in Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday. Showers would move across the Midwest later in the week.

However, more than a third of the Midwest's soybean belt remained under stress from drought, including parts of central Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, central and southeastern South Dakota and a few spots in western Iowa, CWG said.

Still, the moisture will provide little benefit to crops that already have been severely damaged by the heat wave, according to CWG.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on Monday showed that domestic corn conditions stabilized after nine weeks of ratings declines, and soybean crop conditions improved slightly.

However, the ratings for each crop remained at their lowest levels since the last serious drought in 1988.

As the worst drought in more than a half century took its toll, investors went on a buying spree, boosting corn prices more than 50 percent from late May to record highs above $8 per bushel.

The USDA last Friday released data showing deep cuts for this year's corn and soybean output as the drought spread through America's bread basket.

The agency said the 2012 corn crop would fall below 11.0 billion bushels for the first time in six years and the number of bushels yielded per acre was at a 17-year low. Soybean production was forecast at a five-year low and soy yield per acre at nearly a 10-year low.

RTRS- ADVISORY-Cargo surveyor SGS issues palm export data on Aug 27

Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance will release Aug 1-20 Malaysian palm oil exports data together with the Aug 1-25 data on Aug. 27 instead of Aug. 20 and Aug. 25 in view of the Eid ul-Fitri holidays.

RTRS- UPDATE 1-India's July refined palm oil imports down 9 pct on mth

MUMBAI, Aug 16 (Reuters) - India's refined palm oil imports fell 9.3 percent in July in the second straight monthly decline as importers feared the world's biggest buyer would raise duties on purchases to cut cheap supplies from Indonesia,industry data showed on Thursday.

Importers bought 112,611 tonnes of refined, bleached and deodorised palmolein in July as compared with 124,125 tonnes in the previous month, the data from the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA)showed, slightly above the average of a Reuters poll.

The government finally raised the cost of imports from Aug. 1.

India's domestic refiners have been demanding that imports be made costlier after Indonesia, the world's No. 1 palm oil producer, changed its export taxes in October 2011 to promote downstream products.

Refined palm oil imports rose 80 percent in the first nine months of the year from November over the same period a year ago.

Importers bought 486,517 tonnes of crude palm oil, up 27.7 percent on the month, the data showed.

About 80 percent of India's vegetable oil imports are palm oil, and refined product now makes up about a third of that, up from around 16 percent before Indonesia's tax changes.

The spread between crude and refined palm oils narrowed to $33 per tonne from $95 a year ago, B.V. Mehta, the executive director of the Mumbai-based trade body, said in the statement.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since early April on Thursday after comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that appeared to support the European Central Bank's efforts to fight the region's debt crisis, while Cisco Systems jumped after it raised its dividend.

The Nasdaq outperformed the market after Cisco shares jumped nearly 10 percent and Apple Inc AAPL.O shares hit a new closing high of $636.34, while broad gains across most S&P 500 sectors offset a gloom from Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT.N.

The day's gain was the first significant move since a 2 percent gain on Aug 3. Since then, the S&P 500 has been moving mostly higher, but in a slow motion.

"I think the biggest plus today is the fact that people realize that we are now really in an upward trend. We faced resistance but for over a week, we moved higher slowly without a significant pullback. That is what's pulling people in, although volume remains low," said Frank Gretz, market analyst at Wellington Shields & Co in New York.

"Some say we are climbing the 'wall of worry.' I think we are climbing the wall of low expectations. Because nobody is expecting anything good, it is easy to move up on any news."

Merkel said ECB chief Mario Draghi's vow to do all that is necessary to defend the euro is in line with what European leaders have been saying. Some traders took that as a sign Germany may be drawing nearer to backing purchases of sovereign bonds of troubled European nations such as Spain.

Facebook Inc FB.O fell to a new low of $19.69 as shares hit the market after the expiration of a lockup period, which had prevented sales by some insiders. The stock ended down 6.3 percent at $19.87.

Cisco Systems Inc CSCO.O rose 9.6 percent to $19.02 after the company said it would hike its dividend 75 percent after surprisingly strong results late Wednesday. The dividend increase countered a gloomy outlook from Cicso on the debt crisis and recession in Europe.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose to three-month highs on Thursday as apparent German support for the European Central Bank's efforts to combat the euro zone crisis lifted equities, pressured the dollar and fed hopes for more economic stimulus from central banks.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell, setting back from Wednesday's 2.3 percent rise, as rains crossing parts of the U.S. Midwest lifted soy yield prospects, traders said.

* Commodity Weather Group said better-than-expected rains of 0.5 to 1.0 inch (1.3-2.5 cm) fell in Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday, and updated midday forecasts showed a better chance for rains next week than earlier outlooks had indicated.

• Trade remained light, with estimated volume in CBOT soybean futures on track to fall below 130,000 contracts for a third straight day.

• Additional pressure stemmed from USDA Farm Service Agency data that some traders said implied an increase in U.S. 2012 soybean planted acreage from USDA's Aug. 10 crop report.

• Firm domestic cash soybean markets underpinned spot September soybeans SU2, limiting losses. Farmer soy sales have slowed while cash crush margins remain strong, traders said.

• Plans to plant a record soybean crop in Brazil could leave the No. 2 producer with a seed and pesticide shortage, the local head of Syngenta SYNN.VX, the world's largest agrochemicals company, said.

• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.022 million tonnes (old and new crop years combined), topping trade expectations for 750,000 to 950,000 tonnes.

• USDA reported weekly U.S. soymeal sales at 130,700 tonnes, below trade expectations for 150,000 to 250,000, and soyoil sales at a net 1,500 tonnes, below expectations.

• USDA said exporters reported the sale of 123,900 tonnes of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines for 2012/13 delivery.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged up to a near 2-week high on Thursday as exports staged a tentative recovery, signalling stocks could come under pressure.

Futures had dropped on Tuesday to the lowest since last October, as higher output and slower exports initially raised concerns over swelling stocks in Malaysia.

But prices recovered after Wednesday's export data showed signs of recovery for the first half of August, which could put pressure on stocks that hit a 5-month high in July.

"It looks like there has been some profit-taking from traders who shorted a few days back. After all, the market has come down by almost 300 ringgit," said a Singapore-based trader with a foreign commodities house.

The benchmark November palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 1.4 percent to close at 2,942 ringgit ($941) per tonne, just off a high of 2,948 ringgit, a level last seen on Aug. 3.

The contract hit a low of 2,820 ringgit on Tuesday, a level not seen since Oct. 18 last year.

Total traded volumes stood at 30,017 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday with Malaysia falling after six days of gains and Singapore eking out slim gains led by commodities stocks such as Noble Group Ltd.

Malaysia's main index .KLSE finished down 0.22 percent after a choppy session while Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI was up 0.03 percent. Noble Group NOBG.SI and Wilmar International Ltd WLIL.SI each advanced more than 2 percent.

Oil prices, which steadied near three-month highs, were supportive to sentiment in commodities but the broader market remained fragile due to worries about the global economy.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE extended its gain for a third session, rising 0.45 percent to the highest close in more than three months. The market reopens on Thursday after six days of holidays.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were steady on Wednesday, holding close to their highest level since May on hopes of more central bank stimulus for struggling economies, but uncertainty about the extent and timing of any moves hurt the euro and safe-haven U.S. and German government bonds.

Oil prices in London clung near three-month peaks, boosted by worries about supply disruption due to Mideast tensions, while a focus on some weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data pushed gold back above $1,600 an ounce.

Stock markets have been riding high in recent weeks on hopes that European Central Bank plans expected to be detailed in September can put a floor under Spain and Italy's debt troubles and prevent the euro zone from unraveling.

Traders have also raised bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of large-scale bond purchases, known as QE3, perhaps as soon as its next policy meeting in September.

While recent weak economic data in Europe and Asia supported the view that more monetary stimulus is needed to avert a global recession, surprisingly strong July figures on U.S. employment and retail sales recently caused some traders to reconsider the expected timing on QE3.

"While one or two data points alone will not meaningfully alter the outlook for Fed monetary policy, additional upside surprises to U.S. data over the coming weeks would indeed see investors scale back expectations for additional Fed easing," said Omer Esiner, chief analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

Data on Wednesday added to evidence the U.S. economy may not be as weak as previously feared. The Federal Reserve reported a 0.6 percent increase in industrial output in July, and a separate private-sector report showed that a gauge of home builder confidence hit its highest level in more than five years in August.

But a report from the New York Federal Reserve showed manufacturing in New York state contracted for the first time in 10 months. The New York Fed's Empire State index provides one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions.

Investors took solace for now that a sluggish U.S. economy would not result in a severe deterioration in consumer demand and corporate profits, supporting some appetite for equities.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index .SPX has lingered around the 1,400 point mark, close to a four-year high. Analysts said Wall Street will likely stay around current levels through options expiration on Friday. .N

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended down 7.43 points, or 0.06 percent, at 13,164.71. The S&P 500 Index .SPX closed up 1.57 points, or 0.11 percent, at 1,405.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished up 13.95 points, or 0.46 percent, at 3,030.93.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Wednesday, posting the highest settlement since mid-May, as a drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, expectations that North Sea production will drop in September and increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices.

U.S. crude oil stocks fell 3.7 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report on Wednesday, a much bigger drop than was expected.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Aug 15 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 2.4 percent Wednesday, halting a two-day setback, on firming cash markets and talk that top global buyer China was seeking U.S. soybeans, traders said.

• Several U.S. soy processing plants raised their cash basis bids for soybeans over the past day by 10 to 15 cents per bushel as farmer offerings slowed.

• Profit margins for soybean processors have been strong due to near-record prices for soymeal, creating an incentive for processors to buy and crush soybeans, traders said.

• The cash premium for promptly shipped U.S. soybean barges at the U.S. Gulf Coast spiked as at least one exporter was short of needed soybeans amid very tight supplies in the marketing pipeline, traders said.

• Soymeal and soyoil both ended higher but meal gained relative to oil on meal/oil spreads.

• Trade was thin, with volume in soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures well below the prior 250-day average.

• Light showers in nearly all of the U.S. Midwest crop belt and cooler temperatures this week should slow the deterioration of soybean plants already hurt by the worst U.S. drought in half a century.

• China's unrelenting imports of soybean could hit a wall soon as oilseed processors in the world's top buyer cut purchases, with margins being eroded by a drought-driven rally in the United States and domestic price curbs urged by Beijing.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures gained slightly on Wednesday as last-minute buying on rising exports for the first half of August erased losses posted earlier in the session.

The Southeast Asian country's palm oil exports showed signs of recovery after declines in July, bringing some cheer to the market that has lost almost 10 percent this year.

But prices were still hovering above a 10-month low hit the previous day as traders bet on improving soybean conditions in the United States to supply more oilseeds to be crushed into vegetable oil.

"Exports are slightly better compared to last month, but the thing is, market sentiment is still bearish," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The physical cash market is weak, and with that in mind it is difficult for futures to go up," the trader said.

At closing, the benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched up just 0.1 percent to 2,862 ringgit ($916) per tonne. The contract hit a low of 2,820 ringgit on Tuesday, a level not seen since Oct. 18.

Total traded volumes stood at 27,064 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REQIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets ended flat to weaker on Wednesday, with Singapore dropping almost 1 percent, led down by palm oil firm Wilmar International Ltd WLIL.SI which came under selling pressure due to worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.

The Straits Times Index .FTSTI ended three sessions of gains, with Wilmar down 7.1 percent.

Thai index .SETI ended unchanged in a choppy session and after a six-day rising streak as profit-taking hit recent gainers such as Bangkok Bank Pcl BBL.BK.

Market players in large part remained cautious as global growth concerns broadly hit shares in Europe and Asia on the day.

Malaysia .KLSE inched up 0.05 percent at 1,653.78, topping a record closing high of 1,652.90 on Tuesday. The Philippine index .PSI was flat after Tuesday's 0.1 percent fall. Vietnam .VNI rose for a third session, adding 0.3 percent to the highest close since June 21.

RTRS- Oil World sees Europe's 2012 sunflower crop down 11.7 pct

AMSTERDAM, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Sunflower seed production in the European Union, Ukraine and Russia will drop 11.7 percent to a total of 24.82 million tonnes this year, from 28.12 million tonnes a year ago, Hamburg-based oilseed analyst Oil World said on Tuesday.

"We are now in a transition period, when sunseed oil (fob Black Sea) is still offered competitively to soya oil (fob Argentina) to the major importing countries of North Africa and India owing to more attractive freight costs," Oil World said.

" But the prospective large decline by 3.3 million tonnes in this year's combined sunseed production i n the European Union and the CIS countries will enforce a reduction in crushings and strengthen the prices of sunseed, oil and meal in the next months, spilling over also to rapeseed and products."

Oil World has cut its estimate for sunflower production in the EU member states to 7.22 million tonnes from 7.87 million tonnes previously because of drought in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in Spain.

Sunflower production in key exporters Ukraine and Russia is forecast to decline to 17.6 million tonnes from 19.9 million tonnes in the previous year.

"Above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall have taken their toll in the development of corn and sunseed in Russia and Ukraine," Oil World said in its weekly edition.

The decline in sunflower production in the Black Sea region will reduce the region's export supplies and limit the imports to the EU to up to 350,000 tonnes, it said.

Last year, the EU member states whose sunflower production totalled 8.22 million tonnes - a million tonnes above this year's forecast - imported 322,000 tonnes of sunflower seed from Ukraine and Russia.

RTRS- Little relief seen from US drought despite cooler trend

CHICAGO, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Midday weather maps indicate drier conditions this week for the already drought-stricken U.S. crop region than earlier forecasts had shown, an agricultural meteorologist said on Tuesday.

"The big thing is less rain from the Plains into the Delta, basically the mid-South. It now looks dry for the Delta while earlier indications were for up to 0.50 inch," said Drew Lerner, a meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

The U.S. Delta, located roughly in the lower Mississippi River Valley basin, is a lush farming region known for large areas of soybean, cotton and rice production.

Lerner said roughly a half inch of rain was now expected later this week in the drought-stricken Plains where early outlooks had indicated downpours of up to 2.0 to 4.0 inches (5 to 10 cm) in states such as Oklahoma and south central Kansas.

For the balance of the Midwest corn- and soybean-growing area, cooler and damper weather in the U.S. crop belt over the next week will slow further deterioration from the summer stress of the worst drought in more than a half century.

"Corn is too far gone to help at all but some of the northern soybeans may be helped, but the beans in the central and south are too stressed to come back," said Don Keeney, a meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.

Keeney said up to 60 percent of the U.S. Midwest should receive 0.25 inch to 1.00 inch of rain this week and the U.S. Plains states should receive a welcome 0.30 inch to 1.00 inch.

Cooler weather is in the cards for the next 10 days with highs in the 70s degrees Fahrenheit and 80s F rather than the relentless 90s F and 100s F that had been slashing crop prospects, Keeney said.

"It's going to be fall-like weather for the next 10 days. There is a warm-up again in the 11- to 15-day forecast but not the heat we've seen all summer," Keeney said.

Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Tuesday said half of the Midwest would receive scattered showers but dry spots would likely expand from 30 percent of the Midwest currently to at least 40 percent over the next week.

"This will include parts of central Illinois, western Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and southern Wisconsin," said CWG meteorologist Joel Widenor.

"Expanding rains in the Plains and Delta will help to improve pre-planting moisture for winter wheat areas and will also ease stress on double-crop Delta soybeans," he said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on Monday showed the U.S. corn conditions stabilizing after nine weeks of ratings declines and the soybean crop conditions increased slightly.

However, the ratings for each crop remained at their lowest levels since the last serious drought in 1988.

As the worst drought in more than a half century took its toll, investors went on a buying spree, boosting corn prices more than 50 percent from late May to record highs above $8 per bushel.

The USDA on Friday released data showing deep cuts for this year's corn and soybean output as the drought spread through America's breadbasket.

The USDA said this year's corn crop would fall below 11.0 billion bushels for the first time in six years and the number of bushels yielded per acre was a 17-year low. Soybean production was forecast at a five-year low and soy yield per acre nearly a 10-year low.

Analysts and crop experts said additional cuts may be seen in future reports.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks ended little changed on T uesday after early gains supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales numbers faded, while oil prices rose on tepid growth data in Europe that underpinned hopes for fresh monetary stimulus.

A rise in U.S. retail sales in July, the first increase in four months, added to uncertainty in the bond market over whether growth has slowed to the point at which the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to launch a new round of stimulus when it meets next month. Treasury prices fell.

Prices of German government bonds also fell after data showed that France and Germany, the euro zone's two biggest economies, had withstood a contraction in the currency bloc in the second quarter.

The U.S. retail sales data propelled gains in the dollar against the yen and pushed down the price of gold.

Analysts have expected equities would struggle to move higher from current levels on low volume as traders hope for new easing measures from U.S. and European central bankers.

"There was a bit of a late skid into the close. It could simply be some profit-taking. We have had a good rally," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.

The S&P 500 is within a stone's throw of new four-year highs, leaving investors looking for new catalysts to move the market higher. Traders reckon the latest batch of weak data from Europe would pressure the European Central Bank, the Fed or both to act.

The economy of the 17-nation euro zone contracted by 0.2 percent in the second quarter, although Germany eked out growth of 0.3 percent. But even there, a forward-looking sentiment indicator pointed to poorer performance ahead.

The latest European data kept alive expectations for stimulus, without unnerving investors who are looking for clues on whether the Fed, the European Central Bank or both will help their economies with more bond purchases.

The euro zone data followed worrying Chinese trade figures on Friday and Monday's report showing a slowdown in growth in Japan. Both lent support to the view that central banks will be forced to act as early as next month to boost flagging global growth.

In the United States, the retail sales gains for July, which at 0.8 percent marked the biggest increase since February, followed other data on housing and jobs that have raised hopes that an earlier economic slowdown may prove to be temporary.(nL6E8JE81F)

The Standard & Poor's 500 index hit its highest level since May 1. The S&P has risen for seven of the last eight sessions, with concerns of risk from Europe's debt crisis still casting a cloud.

"Today's data are supportive of the stock market. That's a healthy development," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI closed up 2.71 points, or 0.02 percent, at 13,172.14. The S&P 500 Index .SPX ended down 0.18 point, or 0.01 percent, at 1,403.93. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished down 5.54 points, or 0.18 percent, at 3,016.98.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasuries and German Bund prices fell as traders reduced their safe-haven holdings in the wake of the less-dire growth data on German and France.

"I don't expect the Fed will be doing anything for at least a month and the same for the ECB," Ameriprise's Joy said.

Benchmark U.S. 10-year notes US10YT=RR were down 18/32 in price at 99-2/32 with the yield at 1.727 percent, up 6 basis points. Earlier, the 10-year yield was close to its 100-day moving average of 1.7443 percent, which is a technical indicator that U.S. yields might head higher.

"As sentiment improved during the past couple of weeks, the demand for bonds as a perceived safe haven has diminished, and the bond market has started to decline," said chief macro strategist Gary Thayer at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis, Missouri.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Tuesday on supportive U.S. retail sales data and ongoing potential threats to Middle East oil supplies, ahead of weekly U.S. petroleum inventory reports that were expected to show a drawdown.

 

CBOT SOYBEAN- Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended mixed after a choppy session, with most-active November SX2 down on profit-taking and improving crop weather in the U.S. Midwest, traders said.

* Cooler, wetter weather in the U.S. Midwest over the next week should slow further crop deterioration from the worst drought in more than a half century, although updated midday forecasts removed some of the expected rains. (nL2E8JE39T)

• Nearby soybean contracts underpinned by bullish monthly crush data. The National Oilseed Processors Association reported the U.S. soybean crush for July at 137.380 million bushels, above an average of trade estimates for 132.5 million. (nL2E8JE30L)

• August soybeans SQ2 surged on short-covering ahead of the contract's midday expiration and settled up 23-3/4 cents at $16.80 a bushel. Open interest was down to 280 contracts ahead of the trading session.

• CBOT soymeal futures closed higher, gaining against soyoil on meal/oil spreads.

• USDA on Monday said 30 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, an improvement from 29 percent the previous week.

• The crop continues to develop ahead of the normal pace. USDA said 83 percent of the crop had reached the pod-setting phase by Aug. 12, ahead of the five-year average of 70 percent. US/SOY

• Sunflower seed production in the European Union, Ukraine and Russia will drop 11.7 percent to a total of 24.82 million tonnes this year, from 28.12 million tonnes a year ago - analyst Oil World. (nL6E8JE4BT)

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures hit a fresh 10-month low on Tuesday as improving output and slower exports in the Southeast Asian country stirred concerns over swelling stocks.

On top of that, recent rains in the United States that could raise harvest forecasts for soybeans helped ease some concerns over tightening global oilseed supply and weighed on edible oil markets in Asian trade. (nL2E8JD51T)

Traders also avoided taking long positions ahead of export data for the first half of August due on Wednesday.

"Tomorrow's exports are unlikely to be good, and production could climb even higher in August. Prices should be supported at the 2,800-ringgit level," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

At closing, benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 0.5 percent to 2,858 ringgit ($918). The contract earlier touched a low of 2,820 ringgit, a level not seen since Oct 18 last year.

Total traded volumes were high at 31,724 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil has support at 2,838 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. (nL4E8JD0J3)

Malaysia's palm oil inventory level touched its highest since February at nearly two million tonnes in July, snapping four straight months of losses, thanks to improving output and lacklustre demand. (nK7E8EU01A)

But rising production may not last till the end of the year with Australia's weather bureau on Tuesday saying El Nino was in its early stages, potentially bringing dry weather to Southeast Asia and hurting some palm oil output. (nL4E8JE174)

The market will be watching fresh export data on Wednesday after a sluggish showing for the first 10 days of August. PALM/ITS PALM/SGS

Weaker demand from China and Europe has also weighed on Indonesia as the top palm oil producer lowered its estimate for exports to 17.6 million tonnes in 2012, an official from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said late on Monday.(nL4E8JD37J)

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets ended higher on Tuesday buoyed by strength in large-cap banks and commodities-related stocks such as Singapore's Noble Group Ltd NOBG.SI, sending the index to a one-year closing high.

The Singapore Straits Times Index .FTSTI was up 0.75 percent at 3,087.84, with shares in commodities firm Noble surging 12 percent after it reported a 39.3 percent rise in its April-June net profit. (nSN4NHkLJ)

In Bangkok, the SET index .SETI extended its gain for a sixth session, adding 0.6 percent to 1,226.82, its highest close in more than three months.

Top lender Bangkok Bank Pcl BBL.BK rose 3.1 percent to 203 baht, its highest level seen since late 1996 amid good buying interest in banks seen as a beneficiary of a growth in domestic economy.

Elsewhere, Malaysia's main index .KLSE rose for a fifth session, ending up 0.4 percent at a record closing high of 1,652.90. Indonesia .JKSE gained 0.5 percent, reversing Monday's 0.9 percent fall.

Vietnam .VNI advanced 0.8 percent to the highest close in almost two months. Bucking the trend, the Philippines .PSI eased 0.1 percent, halting a two-day rising streak.