Saturday, November 29, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures continue its rally to hit intra day high but lose steam in late trading

CPO futures continue its rally to hit intra day high of 1692 but lose steam in late trading as weekend profit taking activities emerged. Afternoon session was basically underpinned by positive technical outlook in near term and also anticipation of good export figure for the month of November compare to October. Speculative buying activity emerged after prices broke 1660 and continue to ramp up to 1692 in the early part of the afternoon session. It then slid down to hover between 1670-1685 before a late wave of profit taking activity which sent market to dip to 1630 and settled RM28 lower at 1632. Benchmark Feb09 initially opened RM10 lower at 1650 and slid to intra day low of 1625, due to some profit taking activity coupled with easier Asian time NYMEX crude oil. It then traded at the tight range of 1630-1645 till the end of morning session.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Trader's Highlight

NYMEX-TOKYO, Nov 27 - U.S. crude futures were steady above $54 a barrel on Thursday, keeping more than a $3 gain from the previous day, as a rise on Wall Street helped offset government data showing an unexpectedly large rise in U.S. crude stocks.

NYMEX crude for January delivery was trading down 22 cents at $54.22 a barrel in Globex electronic trading by 0000 GMT, after settling up $3.67 on Wednesday.
The NYMEX trading floor is closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Globex electronic trading continues as usual.

FCPO- JAKARTA, Nov 27 - Malaysian palm futures closed higher for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday, boosted by expectations that a Chinese move to slash interest rates will underpin demand, traders said.

The benchmark February palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange closed up 62 ringgit, or 3.88 percent, at 1,660 ringgit ($524) per tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES- BANGKOK, Nov 27 - Thai shares were hurt by growing
political unrest on Thursday, with the index losing 1.37 percent, ending two days of rises, as heavyweight energy firm PTT lost 2.1 percent and Bangkok Bank 2.2 percent.

In general, Southeast Asian stock markets were mixed, with the Philippines and Malaysia climbing nearly 2 percent after China slashed interest rates, prompting investors to snap up oversold blue chips.

Philippine stocks rose for a fourth straight session, rising 1.76 percent, while the Malaysian indexended up 1.59 percent at its highest close in more than a week.

Elsewhere, Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index was off 0.04 percent, ending a two-day rally.

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures gained broadly higher, after surging for 4 consecutive days.

Palm oil futures gained broadly higher, after surging for 4 consecutive days. Yesterday’s sharp gain in CPO price coupled with lower Asian time NYMEX crude oil had prompted some profit taking activities in the early trading. Benchmark Feb09 slid to intra day low of 1573 after opened RM17 lower at 1581. However, the celebration of overnight “bulls” party was still intact and saw buyer aggressively joining in. Benchmark Feb09 immediately bounce back strongly and climbed its way up through out the day without looking back. It hit the intra day high of 1666 in the later part of second session before it settled RM62 higher at 1660. The rally in regional equity market after China slashed its interest rates had also spilled over and enhanced the bullish sentiment in the market.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 6-EU executive urges 200 bln euro stimulus

BRUSSELS, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The European Commission called on Wednesday for states to unite in an EU-wide fiscal stimulus package worth 200 billion euros ($260 billion) in an attempt to stave off recession in the 27-nation bloc.

Breaking News-RTRS-China slashed interest rates for the fourth time

BEIJING, Nov 26 (Reuters) - China slashed interest rates on Wednesday for the fourth time since mid-September, dramatically stepping up the pace of monetary easing to cushion the blow of global financial turmoil on the world's fourth-largest economy.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut benchmark rates for one-year loans and deposits by 1.08 percentage points, lowering the cost of one-year borrowing to 5.58 percent and the rate on 12-month certificates of deposit to 2.52 percent.

Breaking News-RTRS-Indonesia keeps Dec palm oil export tax at zero

JAKARTA, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Indonesia is maintaining its zero percent palm oil export tax in December, while it has cut the December palm oil base export price to $415 a tonne from $573, the trade ministry said on Wednesday. The moves are effective from Dec. 1.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India will only tax crude palm if local prices dive

NEW DELHI, 26 Nov (Reuters) - India will only impose an import tax on crude palm oil if there is a further drop in local oilseed prices, the farm minister said on Wednesday, despite trade calls for a duty to protect farmers and domestic rates.
"The government will act if (oilseed) prices fall below government's minimum support prices," Sharad Pawar said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Wednesday as investors snapped up tech stocks trading near their cheapest levels in five years, and renewed hopes of a General Motors bailout helped investors shrug off data depicting a worsening global economic downturn.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> shot up 247.14 points, or 2.91 percent, to 8,726.61. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 30.29 points, or 3.53 percent, to 887.68. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> jumped 67.37 points, or 4.60 percent, to 1,532.10.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended higher on Wednesday, lifted by another rousing day on Wall Street and shrugging off data that domestic crude supplies increased much larger than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude settled up $3.67, or 7.23 percent, at $54.44 a barrel, trading from $50.15 to $54.86. It fell nearly 7 percent to $50.77 on Tuesday.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January up 3 cents at $8.86 per bushel. Support from news that top U.S. soy buyer China cutting interest rates [ID:nPEK95037] and EU launching a big stimulus plan. Dryness in key South American production areas and higher crude oil also supportive.

Census Bureau said U.S. soy crush in October 149.75 million bushels, below estimates for 151.2 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December up 0.26 cent at 32.50 cts per lb. Following strength in soy and crude oil.

Census Bureau said U.S. soyoil stocks at the end of October 2.384 billion lbs, below the average estimate for 2.5 billion lbs.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures surged 5.5 percent to hit a two-week high as market players scrambled to shortcover on expectations that crude oil would claw back some gains, traders said.

The benchmark February palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 84 ringgit to 1,604 ringgit ($443.1) per tonne before closing 78 ringgit up at at 1,598 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks were mostly higher on Wednesday, led by Singapore and Indonesia, as investors cheered the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest rescue package aimed at throwing a lifeline to stressed consumers.

Singapore stocks <.FTSTI> led the region, closing up 3.5 percent at 1,711.13 points.
The Philippines market <.PSI> closed 1.3 percent higher at 1,932.91 points, but Malaysia's main index <.KLSE> closed 0.44 percent down at 856.37 points, led by banks amid concerns over weaker earnings after the central bank cut interest rates
unexpectedly on Monday.

FCPO Daily: 1600 mark tested


Market covered the full gap at 1563-1571 and tested 1600 mark had provided a sign of bottoming out. Market looks may want to challenge the gap left over since 10/11/2008 at 1610-1612 followed by 1696-1705. For downside, immediate support is at 1500-1490 followed by 1470-1450.

FKLI Daily: late sharp rebound


A sharp rebound at late trading session had helped to neutralise a little the immediate daily technical outlook. However, more buying support is needed in the bearish atmosphere. For now, we look for the immediate resistance at 870-875 followed by 880-885.For downside, support is pegged at 851-849 followed by 843-842.

KLSE Daily: remains sideways


Market remains sideways move following prices tested the support at 848 in intra-day basis but manage to defend. As for now, we continue to look for the immediate support at 848 followed by 837. While, upside resistance is at 869-876 (gap left over since 19/11/2008)followed by 880-885

DJI Daily: extended gains


DJI extended its winning streak to end with triple digit higher. We now look at the immediate support at 8260-8240 followed by 8190-8140. Resistance remains at 8852-8876 followed by 8901-8923.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures closed sharply higher on aggressive short covering and speculative buying activities.

CPO futures closed sharply higher on aggressive short covering and speculative buying activities. Benchmark Feb09 initially traded lower and hit intra day low of 1496, following overnight NYMEX crude oil settled nearly 7% lower coupled with easier CBOT soy complex. However, the emerged of bargain hunting buyers near 1500 level had provided some support on the CPO price. Market was trading in a cautious manner, saw CPO prices to hover around 1520-1540 through out most of the sessions. Nevertheless, since Benchmark Feb09 break above yesterday’s high at 1550 level, buyers were seen more and more impatient. In the later second session, Benchmark Feb09 surging further to hit intra day high of 1604, before it finally settled RM78 higher at 1598. Market has been steady for the last couple of days due to Malaysia government implementation of bio-fuel mandates and replanting schemes. The big 6 plantation houses had been very supportive to these measures. This provided some comfort to the buyers and created some uneasiness to the bear.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The Dow and S&P 500 gained on Tuesday on optimism that the Federal Reserve's latest rescue package could revive the sagging housing market and free up consumer lending.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 36.08 points, or 0.43 percent, to 8,479.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 5.58 points, or 0.66 percent, to 857.39. But the Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shed 7.29 points, or 0.50 percent, to 1,464.73.

Under the Fed's latest plan, the U.S. central bank will buy billions of dollars worth of debt and mortgage-backed securities to increase the flow of credit for mortgages, student loans, car loans and credit cards.

NYMEX-
NEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell almost 7 percent on Tuesday on worries about declining demand after a government report showed the U.S. economy shrank by more than estimated during the third quarter.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude settled down $3.73, or 6.84 percent, at $50.77 a barrel, after trading from $50.52 to $54.66.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- January down 1 cent at $8.83 per bushel. Choppy day with market underpinned by strength in soymeal. Concerns about dry weather in some soy production areas in South America supportive. Pressured by profit-taking after Monday's rally when soy jumped 5 percent.

U.S. Census Bureau to issue its monthly crush on Wednesday.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December down 0.50 cent at 32.24 cents per lb. Pressured by lower crude oil, as well as meal/oil spreading as the spread corrects some.

FCPO
-JAKARTA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed up on Tuesday, supported by strong exports data, but were off earlier highs as market players pocketed profits in late trading, traders said.

The benchmark February palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange closed 32 ringgit, or 2.15 percent higher, at 1,520 ringgit ($420) per tonne.

Other traded contracts rose between 28 ringgit and 60 ringgit. The overall volume stood at 9,476 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 25 (Reuters) - South East Asian stock markets rose on Tuesday, led by the Philippines and in line with regional markets, as investors endorsed the U.S. government's rescue of banking giant Citigroup.

But most markets ended off highs, which dealers said indicated that investors were still concerned about more near-term risks, including whether other global lenders are in need of rescue, as well as indicators that continue to signal a rough road ahead for the global economy.

Singapore stocks <.FTSTI> gained 2.03 percent to 1,653.25, while Jakarta <.JKSE> gained 1.12 percent. Kuala Lumpur <.KLSE> underperformed the region, closing 0.56
percent higher at 860.18 points.

Breaking News-RTRS-"Green" palm oil sales expected to pick up in 2009

JAKARTA, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Palm oil producers in Indonesia, Malaysia and Papua New Guinea may sell 1 million tonnes of "sustainable" palm oil next year, up ten-fold on 2008 although still only a tiny fraction of global sales, officials said.
Under fire from green groups and some Western consumers, the palm oil industry established the Round Table on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) in 2004 to develop an ethical certification system, including commitments to preserve rainforests and wildlife.

Breaking News-RTRS-Palm oil to gain world sales from soyoil-Oil World

HAMBURG, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Global soyoil exports are likely to slacken in coming months with palm oil being the main gainer, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Global 2008/2009 (Oct/Sept) soyoil exports are likely to fall to 9.87 million tonnes from 11.12 million in the same year-ago period, it said.
But 2008/2009 (Oct/Sept) palm oil exports are set to rise to 35.13 million tonnes from 33.39 million a year previously.

DJI Daily: slight improvement


DJI had gaining a little ground with another positive close. We now look at the support at 8143-8105 followed by 7987-7882. Resistance is at 8852-8876 followed by 8901-8923.

KLSE Daily: rangy mode


Market remains in range bound mode. Looks 853 level had temporary provide a little support followed by next support is at 850-848. While, upside resistance is at 866-869 followed 869-876 (gap left over since 19/11/2008).

FKLI Daily: stuck at sideways move


Market failed to hold ground after tested the intra-day high at 871. Market may want to move in sideways in near term. We continue to look for the immediate support at 843-842.5 followed by 827.5. For upside, immediate resistance is at 875.5-877 followed by 880-883.

FCPO Daily: slowly inching up


Market slowly inching up with 1400 mark provided a firm support. Looks may want to continue challenge the upside gap left over at 1563-1571 (gap left over since 11/11/2008) followed by 1610-1612 (gap left over since 10/11/2008). For downside, immediate support is at 1511-1503( gap left over yesterday) followed by 1435-1430.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures extending its yesterday’s gains to end generally higher but off high

Palm oil futures extending its yesterday’s gains to end generally higher but off high. Strong closed in overnight NYMEX crude oil coupled with 200 points up in rival soy oil in CBOT saw Benchmark Feb09 initially opened with RM42 higher at 1530 and climbed to 1550 before lunch break. Stronger export figures released by private cargo surveyors also provided some support into the market. However, prices meeting some resistance between 1540 to 1550, thus prompting profit-taking activities emerged. It slides to hit the intra day low of 1511 in late session before it rebounded to settled RM32 higher at 1520. Total daily volume stood at 9476 contracts changed hands.

Breaking News-RPT-Malaysian group sees palm replanting by H1 '09

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The replanting of palm oil in Malaysia, covering 200,000 hectares, is likely to be completed in the first half of 2009, an industry group said on Monday.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Malaysia to tap fund for palm biodiesel, replanting

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Malaysia will tap 400 million ringgit ($110 million) from a palm oil stabilisation fund to boost palm biodiesel production and replanting of oil palm trees, an industry official said on Monday.
Of the amount, 200 million ringgit will be used for biodiesel and another 200 million for replanting, said Lee Oi Hian, Chief Executive of Malaysia's third biggest planter Kuala Lumpur Kepong .

Breaking News-RTRS-WRAPUP 3-Malaysia cuts rates, Thailand poised to follow

KUALA LUMPUR/BANGKOK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Malaysia unexpectedly cut interest rates for the first time in more than five years on Monday and Thailand signalled that it was ready to do the same as Asia grappled with fallout of the global financial crisis.
Malaysia's central bank cited the recession in the industrialised world and the receding risk of inflation from high commodity prices as the reasons for its 25 basis point cut to 3.25 percent.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks advanced broadly on Monday and government debt prices slid after Washington's rescue of Citigroup eased investors' fears that its collapse could push the global financial system into the abyss.

The $300 billion-plus rescue package for Citigroup spurred broad equity rallies on both sides of the Atlantic, outweighing another batch of gloomy economic news that has hammered financial markets in recent weeks. he Dow, with JPMorgan rising 21 percent and Bank of America up 27 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 396.97 points, or 4.93 percent, at 8,443.39. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> jumped 51.78 points, or 6.47 percent, at 851.81. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 87.67 points, or 6.33 percent, at 1,472.02.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended more than $4 higher on Monday, rising on a weaker dollar and Wall Street's rally after a government rescue of Citigroup and as OPEC prepared to meet on Saturday.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude settled up $4.57, or 9.15 percent, at $54.50 a barrel, trading from $48.80 to $55.30.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January <3SF9> up 44 at $8.84 cents. Technical bounce after falling to a five-month low last week. Strength in financial markets and rally in crude oil
supports. Talk that China bought 2-3 cargoes of U.S. soybeans
also supportive, traders.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December <3BOZ8> up 2.04 cents at 32.74 cents per lb. Soyoil up 6.6 percent, moving up in tandem with crude oil

FCPO-JAKARTA, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed nearly 2 percent higher on Monday on hopes that demand will rise ahead of the Chinese New Year festival early next year, traders said.

The benchmark February palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange closed 28 ringgit, or 1.92 percent higher, at 1,488 ringgit ($410) per tonne.

Other traded contracts rose between 11 ringgit and 39 ringgit. The overall volume stood at 11,717 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday, in line with other regional markets, on renewed concerns over the global financial system and as further economic weakness showed.

Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are already officially in a recession while South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, is poised for a sharp slowdown.

Kuala Lumpur <.KLSE> sold off as well, with the benchmark index dropping 1.33 percent to 855.39 points, still off its year low of 801.27 points hit on Oct. 28.

DJI Daily: technically oversold


DJI extended its winning streak after hit the fresh low. Technically market looks oversold. As for now, we look at the support at 7506-7449.While, resistance is at 8876-8900.

KLSE Daily: stay firm


Nothing much changes on the immediate daily technical outlook as prices remains stayed firm. We continue to look for the support at 850-848 followed by 837. While, upside resistance is at 869-876 (gap left over since 19/11/2008)followed by 880-884.

FKLI Daily: defended well


Market looks defended well at 840 level following few times attempt fail to break through. As for now, we continue to look for the immediate support at 843-842.5 followed by 827.5. For upside, immediate resistance is at 875.5-877 followed by 880-883.

FCPO Daily: 1400 mark holding firm


Market gaining a little ground following 1400 mark continue to hold firm and tested 1500 in intra-day basis. This had neutralised a little the immediate daily technical landscape. Market looks may want to challenge the upside gap left over at 1563-1571 (gap left over since 11/11/2008) followed by 1600. For downside, support is pegged at 1400-1390 followed by 1358-1331.

Monday, November 24, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures surrendered some of its earlier gains to end slightly higher.

CPO futures surrendered some of its earlier gains to end slightly higher. Benchmark Feb09 open almost unchanged at 1462, and rose to morning high of 1493, tracking NYMEX crude oil that traded above $50 level in Asian time zone, and also firmer soy oil prices in e-CBOT, extending their respective overnight gains. It slipped to intra day low at 1452 but were well supported and managed to climb back until it hit the intra day high of 1503 in the early afternoon session. However, CPO prices began to ease off when Asian time NYMEX crude oil fell back to below $50 level. Talks that India may impose import tax on palm oil by this month also further undermined CPO prices. Profit taking activities then emerged as traders took advantage of higher prices. Benchmark Feb09 retreated to 1468, before it settled RM28 higher at 1488.

Breaking News-RTRS-WRAPUP 1-Citigroup gets $306 bln rescue from US government

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. government agreed to a $306 billion rescue plan for Citigroup Inc , agreeing to shoulder some losses from toxic debt in the latest attempt to bolster a financial services industry in turmoil.

Breaking News-RTRS-RESEARCH ALERT-Goldman Sachs slashes CPO price forecasts

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs lowered its crude palm oil (CPO) price assumptions for 2009 and 2010 by 41 percent and 50 percent while cutting target prices for plantation firms under its coverage by up to 52 percent.
Palm prices at current levels are close to a bottom but the timing of a re-rating for the sector remains uncertain, the investment bank said in a research note on Monday.
"Overall, we see attractive opportunities for long-term investors, but in the near-term, CPO prices and plantation stocks could decline further before rising again," it said.
Goldman Sachs has rated Singapore-listed Wilmar as the industry's top pick while putting Sime Darby , Malaysia's top palm oil producer, on its conviction sell list, saying the Malaysian planter is more vulnerable to falling CPO prices.

Updated CPO Tender Summary and Delivery Location for the year 2008

Breaking News-Argentine soy sowing lags due to drought - gov't

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Dry soils forced Argentine farmers to halt soy sowing this week in many parts of the farming belt, the Agriculture Secretariat said in a weekly crop progress report on Friday.
The secretariat estimates a record soy area of 18.1 million hectares (44.7 million acres). By Thursday, it said 42 percent had already been sown, 8 percentage points more than the prior week but still lagging last season's pace by 3 points.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soyoil strong; more imports arrive for reserves-survey

BEIJING, Nov 21 (Reuters) - China's soyoil market should stay strong next week amid robust demand, although a large amount of imports have arrived this month, according to a survey by an official think-tank.
"Most soyoil imports in November would go for state reserves, which would not have any impact on the market," said the official China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC) in a report. It did not elaborate.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks stormed higher in a late rally on Friday to cap another volatile week as investors welcomed reports that President-elect Barack Obama has chosen his point person to combat the U.S. economic crisis, instilling confidence about the administration's ability to
take action.

Markets shot higher around 3 p.m. when NBC news reported that Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, would be nominated as U.S. Treasury secretary, driving the Dow and the S&P up more than 6 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> jumped 494.13 points, or 6.54 percent, to 8,046.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shot up 47.59 points, or 6.32 percent, at 800.03. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 68.23 points, or
5.18 percent, to 1,384.35.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended higher on Friday, rebounding from 3-1/2 year lows hit on Thursday, as they tracked rising U.S. equities and refined product futures surged after heavy losses the day before.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, new front-month January crude settled up 51 cents, or 1.03 percent, at $49.93 a barrel. It traded from $48.25 -- lowest since prices fell to $48.05 on May 23, 2005 -- to $51.12.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 16 cents at $8.40. Soybeans fall with tumbling corn. Demand concerns amid struggling global economy overhanging the market as earlier rebounds in crude oil and stock markets stumble.

Dry soils force Argentine farmers to halt soy sowing this week in many parts of the farming belt, the Agriculture Secretariat said.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December up 0.07 cent at 30.70 cents per lb. Bounces from earlier lows as crude oil rebounds. Lower soybeans weigh.

China soyoil seen strong next week amid robust demand; more imports arrive for reserves

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Asian vegetable oil markets clawed back some losses on Friday as oil prices rose towards $50 a barrel but fears that a deepening global recession was eating into food and fuel demand kept investors cautious.

Malaysian crude palm oil futures <0#KPO:> ended slightly lower after falling sharply while soyoil contracts <0#DBY:> on Dalian Commodity Exchange settled down 2.1 percent.

The benchmark February palm contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange ended down 8 ringgit at 1,460 ringgit ($403) after going as low as 1,386 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mixed on Friday, with Singapore climbing nearly three percent on buying of financials such as UOB and DBS Group in reaction to a government stimulus package.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closed up 2.98 percent, snapping four days of falls.Other Asian markets rebounded from a five-year low on Friday
as a variety of rumours, such as China cutting interest rates, prompted investors to cover short positions before the weekend.

Malaysian shares <.KLSE> ended a three-day losing streak to inch up 0.18 percent. Thai shares <.SETI> gained 0.9 percent. Indonesian shares <.JKSE> drifted 0.75 percent lower, recovering from a 4.5 percent fall earlier, after the central
bank pledged to respect the free movement of capital.

DJI Weekly: Bottomless??


DJI continue to plunge to its lowest level since 2003. Technical outlook remains bearish in near term market. We now look for the support at 7449 followed by 7416 (low since 16 March, 2003). For upside, resistance is at 9708-9794.

FKLI Weekly: No improvement


Bear remains stayed firm with its posture. As for now, we continue to look for the support at 800 mark. For upside, immediate resistance is at 924.5-927.

KLSE Weekly: Remains BEARISH


Bearish mode remains intact. We continue to look at the underline support at 800 mark. For upside, immediate resistance is at 920-926.

FCPO Weekly: cap in Range Trading


Market remains firm at above 1400 mark and looks may continue to move in sideways manner with the support pegged at 1331 and upside resistance is at 1723-1727 level .

Friday, November 21, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures recouped most of its early losses to end slightly lower.

CPO futures recouped most of its early losses to end slightly lower. Benchmark Feb09 initially open RM67 lower at 1401 and slid down to hit the intra day low of 1386, tracking overnight NYMEX crude oil which traded below USD 50 level, while Dalian palm also traded at limit down price in early trading. However, CPO futures prices were still well supported following spill over buying interest from the recovery of regional equity market. Buyers started their bargain activities to take advantage of low prices and it gradually climbed up through out the session. The rebound of NYMEX crude oil traded in Asian time which climbed back above USD 50 level had further underpinned the market sentiment. Benchmark Feb09 continued to rebound and hit the intra day high of 1471 before it settled at 1460 down RM8.

Breaking News- RTRS-UPDATE 2-China plans more soy, corn reserve purchases-trade

BEIJING, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Chinese government plans to buy as much as another 3 million tonnes of soybeans and 5 million tonnes of corn for state reserves to bolster domestic prices, traders said on Thursday, a move that could suck more cargoes into the world's largest soybean importer.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks plunged yet again on Thursday, as a frantic flight from risk prompted by investors' deepening economic fears drove the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index to its lowest level since 1997 -- completing the erasure of more than a decade of stock market gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> plunged 444.99 points, or 5.56 percent, to 7,552.29. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 54.14 points, or 6.71 percent, to 752.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> slid 70.30 points, or 5.07 percent, to 1,316.12.

The number of American workers on the unemployment rolls surged to the highest in a quarter century, government data showed, while a regional manufacturing gauge slumped as the economic misery intensified.

Democratic leaders said automakers can submit another plan by Dec. 2, adding that the proposal could be considered the week of Dec. 8.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended below $50 a barrel on Thursday, hitting a 3-1/2-year low as the front-month December contract expired amid worries about a weakened economy further cutting oil demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down $4, or 7.46 percent, at $49.62 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 23, 2005, when prices ended at $49.16. It traded from $48.50 -- lowest since prices fell to $48.05 on May 23, 2005 -- to $53.30.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- January down 41 cents at $8.56. Soy down 4 percent and January hit a 3-1/2-week low on spillover pressure from falling stock markets and drop in crude oil. Fears of a deep global recession that would trim demand for soy weighing on market.

Argentina estimates 2008/09 soy plantings at a record 18 million hectares, up from 16.6 million year ago.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December down 1.34 cent at 30.63 cents per lb. Falling crude oil and stock markets weigh, in addition to spillover pressure from lower soybeans.

FCPO-JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched lower on Thursday, pressured by faltering crude oil prices on fears of slowing demand, traders said.

News of stronger exports for Nov. 1 to 20 failed to reassure the market as the increase is seen as too small to substantially reduce stock levels, traders said.
But prospects of a possible drawdown in palm oil inventories as bad weather hits production from December curbed losses later on in the session.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended down 12 ringgit, or 0.8 percent, at 1,468 ringgit ($405) per tonne after going as low as 1,428 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets touched 3-week lows on Thursday as mounting global recession fears fuelled sell-offs in regional blue chips and political strife plagued Thai shares.

Thailand's main index <.SETI> fell 3.59 percent, its lowest level since Oct. 29. Singapore shares <.FTSTI> dropped 3.1 percent to its lowest point since Oct. 28, with banking shares topping the loss column.

Philippine shares <.PSI> lost 3.5 percent. Jakarta shares <.JKSE> fell for a fourth day to close down 2.15 percent. Malaysian shares <.KLSE> extended their losses for a third day, ending down 1.4 percent.

DJI Daily: new low


DJI plunged with another triple digit losses with created another new low. As for now, we look at the support at 7460-7416 (low since 10/6/2002) followed by 7197. While, resistance is at 8571-8637.

FKLI Daily: more downside room


Market comes to the end of its sideways move following prices violated the immediate support at 863 level and gives more room to downside potential. As for now, we look at the immediate support at 843-839.5 followed by 827.5. For upside, immediate resistance is at 859.5-868 (gap left over yesterday) followed by 891-895.5.

KLSE Daily: fail to hold ground


Market failed to hold ground following prices violated the immediate support at 868-867. Looks more room to downside potential with downside support is now looking at 850-848 followed by 837. While, upside resistance is at 869-876 (gap left over yesterday)followed by 884.

FCPO Daily: range bound trading


Range trading continue with immediate support is at 1400-1390 followed by 1331. While, immediate resistance is at 1505-1520 followed by 1563-1571 level.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures recouped some of its earlier losses on better export data to ends off low

CPO futures recouped some of its earlier losses on better export data to ends off low. Initially, Benchmark Feb09 opened RM38 lower at 1441 tracking overnight lower crude oil in NYMEX and easier rival soy oil in CBOT. Prices slid to hit intra day low at 1428 and hovered mostly between 1435 to 1450 through out most of the session. Basically, market was supported by better 1-20 export numbers released by both private cargo surveyors. News that Malaysia palm oil stocks may decline due to bad weather, coupled with government’s move to push for more bio-diesel and replanting scheme had prompted short covering activities emerged in late trading. This sent prices rebounding to settle at intra day high at 1468.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Breaking News-RTRS-INTERVIEW-Malaysia's swelling palm stocks to ease in Dec

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Malaysia may see a decline in record stocks of palm oil from December as bad weather hits output and the government pushes forward with its biodiesel and replanting plans, an industry regulator said on Thursday.

Better food demand from top importers China, India and Pakistan next year could accelerate the decline in stocks in the world's second largest producer of the vegetable oil, Malaysian Palm Oil Board Chairman Sabri Ahmad said.

December would see 100,000 tonnes less palm oil from November as Sabah state on Borneo island and the eastern peninsular Malaysia, which account for 50 percent of total production, will be worst affected by the floods.

The government is likely to carry out its plans on biodiesel and replanting over a year in 2009 rather than taking two years or more, Sabri said.

"The biodiesel association has agreed to buy up 500,000 tonnes of crude palm oil in 2009," Sabri said.

Breaking News-RTRS-IMF approves $2.1 billion loan for Iceland

WASHINGTON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday its board approved a $2.1 billion loan for Iceland to try to stabilize what the fund called a "banking crisis of extraordinary proportions."
The two-year stand-by arrangement is structured so that Iceland can immediately draw about $827 million, with the rest in eight installments of about $155 million, subject to quarterly reviews.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Sime enters China's palm oil refinery business

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian conglomerate Sime Darby Bhd said it has teamed up with a Chinese firm to enter the palm oil refining and sales business in China.
Sime is expected to take a majority stake in a joint venture firm, along with Dongguan Sinograin Oils & Grains Co Ltd, a Chinese government-linked company.

Ttrader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - U.S. and European shares ended at five-and-a-half-year closing lows on Wednesday as a record drop in U.S. consumer prices and more dismal housing data stoked recession fears, driving a flight to safety.

Doubts about the prospect of a U.S. auto industry rescue added to America's weak economic outlook, further weighing on stocks and helping push the dollar down against the yen.

Markets are pricing in further rate cuts, with the U.S. Federal Reserve seen cutting another 50 basis points in December and figures derived from Eonia rates fully pricing in 75 basis points of European Central Bank cuts next month.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed down 427.47 points, or 5.07 percent, at 7,997.28. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 52.54 points, or 6.12 percent, at 806.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 96.85 points, or 6.53 percent, at 1,386.42.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended lower on Wednesday as weekly inventory data showed a larger-than-expected stock increase, offsetting an overall drawdown in distillate supplies.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude , which expires on Thursday, settled down 77 cents, or 1.42 percent, at $53.62 a barrel, the lowest settlement prices closed at $51.13 on Jan. 22, 2007.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 5 cents at $8.97. Pressure from falling stock market but underpinned by dry weather in Argentina, the world's third largest soy exporter.

Soy continues to find support from tightening U.S. stocks, but gains limited by concern about demand during a global recession.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December down 0.31 cent at 31.97 cents per lb. Early gains clipped as stock market turned down.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended 3.1 percent higher on Wednesday, after India hiked import tariffs for rival soyoil the prior day, heightening hopes for more demand although traders said palm oil was next for a rise.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled up 44 ringgit at 1,480 ringgit ($410) per tonne. Other traded months on Bursa Malaysia <0#KPO:> rose between 30 and 58 ringgit. Trading volume nearly doubled to 18,518 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stocks fell
on Wednesday as investors, spooked by weak corporate profit outlooks, sold financials and blue chips such as Singapore's DBS, Indonesia's Bank Rakyat and Thailand's top oil firm PTT.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> closed down 1.59 percent to its lowest level since October 29.Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> drifted 0.8 percent lower at the close after earlier touching 1,159.96 points.Malaysia's main stock index <.KLSE> fell for a second day, down 0.62 percent, as palm plantation firm Sime Darby lost 0.78 percent and IOI Corp dipped 0.65 percent,despite a 2.2 perecent rise in Malaysian palm oil futures.

DJI Daily: plunged to the lowest in 5 1/2 year


DJI tumbles with more than 5% losses and again 8000 mark was unable to defend. Chart wise look ugly with a long black candle printed. As for now, support remains at 7882-7965 while resistance is at 8680-8684.

FKLI Daily: in cautious mode


Market is in cautious mode following prices extended its losing streak. A break below the immediate support at 863 may see more downside room and next support is at the recent low 803.5 level. For upside, immediate resistance is at 891-895.5 followed by 900-910.

KLSE Daily: losing ground


Market looks tiring to hold ground following prices continue to end weak. We look at the immediate support at 868-867 followed by 848-850. While, upside resistance is at 889-896 followed by 905-913 (gap left over since 5/11/2008).

FCPO Daily: trending sideways


Market continue to trend sideways with immediate support is at 1400-1390 followed by 1331. While, immediate resistance is at 1505-1520 followed by 1563-1571 level.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures edged higher due to India’s move to impose tax on crude soybean oil.

Palm oil futures edged higher due to India’s move to impose tax on crude soybean oil. Benchmark Feb09 opened RM4 higher at 1440 when traders began to speculate on the news that India government imposed 20% duty on rival soy oil, while imposing no duties at all on palm oil. This move could stimulate more demand on palm oil and may help to reduce the record high level of stocks. CPO prices merely hit the day low at 1438 after opened and there after continue to rally until afternoon session. News released by Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World, which forecasted that Malaysia’s 2009 palm oil production will only increased marginally, also help lifted some bullish sentiment in the market. Benchmark Feb09 hit the day high of 1493 before it encountered some profit taking activities in the later part of 2nd session. This saw CPO price eased off to hit 1461. Nevertheless, it managed to bounce back again to settle RM44 higher at 1480.

Breaking News-RTRS-POLL-Higher risk of Malaysia c.bank rate cut Monday

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Malaysia's central bank
could cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five
years as soon as next Monday, a Reuters poll shows, although a
slight majority of analysts believe the central bank will wait.
Six of 11 analysts polled by Reuters expect Bank Negara
Malaysia to leave its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.50
percent when it reviews policy on Monday.
Five said they expected the central bank to cut the rate by
25 basis points.

Breaking News-India Palm Oil Imports May Rise as Tax Makes Soybean Oil Costly

By Thomas Kutty Abraham
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil after China, may increase palm oil imports after the government imposed a tax on purchases of crude soybean oil, the main substitute product, a trade body said.
A 20 percent duty has been imposed on overseas purchases of soybean oil, the finance ministry said late yesterday. Imports of the commodity were duty-free before.
``There will be more palm oil imports,'' said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, in a telephone interview from Mumbai. ``This is good news for palm oil growers in Indonesia and Malaysia at a time when they are grappling with huge stockpiles.''

USD/MYR: in up-swing mode


MYR chart still in up-swing mode. It just breaks the overhead resistance at 3.52 easily and heading to 3.580 to 3.590 (at 2nd resistance) as we mentioned in our 17/10/08’s comment. Its up-swing mode remain strong, may want to try the next resistance level between 3.640-3.690.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysian '09 palm oil output growth to slow-Oil World

HAMBURG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Malaysia's 2009 palm oil output will rise only marginally following years of rapid growth, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Malaysia will produce 17.60 million tonnes of palm oil in calendar year 2009 against an estimated 17.56 million tonnes in 2008 and 15.82 million tonnes in 2007, it forecasts.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World cuts Brazil's soybean crop forecast

HAMBURG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Brazil is likely to harvest 59.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2009, down one million tonnes from the previous forecast in October, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as Hewlett-Packard's upbeat results trumped growing fears of a deepening global recession in a day of volatile trade, but much of Wall Street finished lower and oil prices fell.

Wall Street traded much of the day lower but surged in a late rally, spurred by the forecast-beating results and outlook from HP , the world's largest maker of personal computers.

But investor doubts about the fate of billions of dollars in government aid sought by General Motors Corp and the other beleaguered U.S. automakers fueled caution.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 151.17 points, or 1.83 percent, at 8,424.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 8.37 points, or 0.98 percent, at 859.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 1.22 points, or 0.08 percent, at 1,483.27.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended at the lowest level in nearly 22 months on Tuesday, moving in lock-step with Wall Street, where U.S. stocks lost ground on deepening economic worries.

Crude notched gains earlier as equities rose and amid talk from OPEC about another output cut, which helped crude oil bounce from another near 22-month low.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down 56 cents, or 1.02 percent, at $54.39, the lowest settlement since prices ended at $54.01 on Jan. 29, 2007.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 4-1/2 cents at $9.02. Profit-taking from Monday's gains and a firm dollar weighing on soy. Crude oil turning lower added pressure as did a sag in stock markets.

SOYOIL - December down 0.04 cent at 32.28 cents per lb. Pressured by drop in soy and lower crude oil market.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures held modestly firmer on Tuesday but fears that export growth may not keep up with ballooning stockpiles continued to grip the market.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 1 ringgit ringgit at 1,436 ringgit ($396) per tonne.

Other traded months on Bursa Malaysia <0#KPO:> traded between marginal declines and gains. Trading volume stood at 11,206 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell to near three-week lows on Tuesday amid fears of an intensifying global downturn

Southeast Asian stocks elsewhere tracked weaker sentiment in Asian stocks after Citigroup cut 52,000 jobs and downbeat policymaker comments reflected worsening economic conditions.

Thailand's benchmark stock index <.SETI> fell 3.0 percent to its lowest since Nov 13. Malaysia <.KLSE>, Southeast Asia's best performer this year, edged down 0.11 percent, reversing a small gain posted on Monday, as Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak said the country was open to taking additional measures to boost the economy.

The Philippines' stock market dropped 3.42 percent to its lowest since Oct 30, with the country's biggest mall developer, SM Prime Holdings , 5.7 percent lower after announcing a plan to boost capital spending 66 percent next year.

CPO futures ended mix after recovered from its earlier losses.

CPO futures ended mix after recovered from its earlier losses. Benchmark Feb09 open almost unchanged at 1437, as Asian time NYMEX crude oil halted its fall from overnight losses to trade above $55 a barrel on Tuesday. Nevertheless, CPO prices unable to sustain and immediately fell following US eCBOT soy complex and Dalian palm inching lower. Benchmark Feb09 hit the psychological support level at 1400, which is also the intra day low. In the later part of afternoon session, some short-covering activities began to emerge and sent CPO prices to bounce back. It hit the intra day high of 1446 before it settled RM1 higher from yesterday’s settlement price at 1436.

FCPO Daily: maintain sideways posture


Market has been traded in tight range and moving sideways. We maintain the support at 1331 while resistance is at 1563-1571.

DJI Daily: to trade in range


Range trading extended. Resistance and support maintain at 9794-9653 and 7882-7965 level respectively.

FKLI Daily: uncertain


Market direction remains uncertain following prices traded in yo-yo manner. We continue to look for the support at 863 followed by 803.5 Upside resistance remains at 895.5-910 followed by 927.

KLSE Daily: remains sideway


Market remains sideways with support at 868-867 and resistance is at 905-913 (gap left over since 5/11/2008).

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Breaking News-INFORMA ECONOMICS SEES 2009 U.S. CORN PLANTINGS AT 86.8 MILLION ACRES, SOYBEANS AT 77.2 MLN -TRADERS

CHICAGO, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Analytical firm Informa Economics estimated U.S. corn plantings for 2009 at 86.8 million acres and soybeans at 77.2 million, trade sources said on Friday.
The firm's projections compare with 85.9 million corn acres planted in the spring of 2008 and 75.9 million soybean acres, based on USDA's latest estimates.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Malaysia mulls new rule on palm oil millers

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Malaysia may introduce a regulation to force palm oil millers to buy from oil palm smallholders, Commodities Minister Peter Chin said on Monday.
Inventories of the vegetable oil rose to a record 2.09 million tonnes in October, resulting in millers running at near full capacity and making them reluctant to buy palm fruits from smallholders, which account for 40 percent of the country's total annual production.
"The trouble is we have a peak fruiting season, most of the mills are running at full capacity. My sympathies are with the smallholders," Peter Chin told an industry seminar. "I am looking at regulations to compel millers to buy these fruits."
Chin later told reporters he had directed industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to investigate millers who refused to buy palm fruits.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks and oil prices fell on Monday after Japan became the latest major economy to slide into recession and Citigroup said it would cut 15 percent of its work force, the latest signs of a worldwide slowdown.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed down 223.73 points, or 2.63 percent, at 8,273.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> shed 22.54 points, or 2.58 percent, at 850.75. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 34.80 points, or 2.29 percent, at 1,482.05.

Citigroup , the U.S. bank with the largest worldwide reach, reminded investors of the financial industry's woes with news it would cut 52,000 jobs, on a day the battered auto industry took center stage.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than $2 lower in volatile trading on Monday on bleak economic news in the United States and abroad and amid volatile trading before options on December crude expired at the close.

The hijacking of a Saudi oil tanker and a slumping dollar earlier supported a surge to near $59.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled at $54.95 a barrel, down $2.09, or 3.66 percent, trading from $54.72 to $58.98.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January up 10-1/2 cents at $9.06-1/2.

Concerns about dryness in crop production areas in Argentina and smaller-than-expected private forecast for U.S. 2009 soy acreage supportive. Retreating crude oil, disappointment with a weekend meeting of G20 leaders and falling stock market limiting gains.

Analytical firm Informa Economics estimated 2009 U.S. soy acres at 77.2 million, compared to 75.9 million planted in 2008 but below trade estimates -traders.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December down 0.28 cent at 32.32 cents per lb. Losing ground to meal amid meal/oil spreading.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures closed down 1.7 percent on Monday as crude oil dropped to near its lowest in almost two years, raising concerns over the viability of biodiesel demand amid a deepening global recession.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 25 ringgit ($6.96) to 1,435 ringgit per tonne.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets drifted lower on Monday as fears of a global economic recession and a gloomy export outlook pushed financials and blue chips lower.

Market sentiment weakened after data showing a recession in Japan and Hong Kong, while fund outflows from the region looked set to continue, analysts said.

In Kuala Lumpur, the main index edged up 0.27 percent. Thai shares bucked the market trend, with the main Thai index <.SETI> up nearly 1 percent as local buying pushed shares in big cap energy stocks up.

Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> dropped 2.17 percent to its lowest since Oct. 31, despite marginally better-than-expected third quarter GDP data.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> ended down 0.54 percent, with financial firm DBS Group sliding 2.3 percent and Singapore Exchange 2.35 percent lower.

DJI Daily: Range bound mode to continue


Nothing much changes on the immediate daily technical outlook as market remains its range trading. Resistance and support maintain at 9794-9653 and 7882-7965 level respectively.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures extended yesterday’s losses as crude oil fell further

Palm oil futures extended yesterday’s losses as crude oil fell further. Benchmark jan09 initially open flat at 1460 and merely hit the day high of 1465. It immediately slid down as Asian time NYMEX crude oil traded more than $1 lower at below $56, continuing the fall from overnight losses. Both private cargo surveyor, ITS and SGS had posted a bullish export data which saw the figures increased 11.3% and 18.1% respectively. Benchmark Jan09 hit the intra day low of 1413 in the afternoon session, and then followed a slight rebound to 1442. Nevertheless, it finally settled at 1435 due to lack of follow through buying interest. Other commodity market traded in a mix sentiment, where US eCBOT edged higher while Dalian commodity exchange traded mix.

FCPO Daily: tight range


Market remains capped in lower range trading with its tight movement. We maintain the support at 1331 while resistance is at 1563-1571.

FKLI Daily: stay firm above 863


Market looks firm following 863 immediate support protected well. Looks may continue to holding ground with upside resistance at 895.5-910 followed by 927.

KLSE Daily: good defend


Market defended well and manage to bounce back from negative to end in positive territory. Looks support at 868-867 was pretty strong. Upside resistance is at 905-913 (gap left over since 5/11/2008).

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-India's Oct veg oil imports jump on prices, duty

NEW DELHI, Nov 14 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in October rose an annual 24 percent to 827,000 tonnes, the largest monthly purchase in 14 years, as low prices and expectation of higher import duties triggered heavy buying, a leading trade body said.
Imports in the oil year to October were at 6.3 million tonnes, up 12.5 percent from 5.6 million tonnes in the previous year, led by a surge in palm oil imports, data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed.

Breaking News-RTRS-China soy, soyoil market stay strong, corn weak-survey

BEIJING, Nov 14 (Reuters) - China's soy and soyoil markets were expected to remain strong in the week ahead, although the outlook for soyoil weakened as supplies grew, while corn remained bearish on weak demand, according to a survey by an official think-tank.
China's imports of soybeans remained robust even after the slide of domestic soy prices, but the price drop left domestic prices higher than imports, according to the survey by the official China National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday after a record drop in retail sales last month heightened fears that American consumers' reluctance to spend will push the economy into an even deeper downturn than currently expected.

Retail sales dropped 2.8 percent in October as consumers cut back amid recession fears, a government report showed. Consumer spending is a key driver for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 337.94 points, or 3.82 percent, to 8,497.31, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 38.00 points, or 4.17 percent, to 873.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> fell 79.85 points, or 5.00 percent, to end at 1,516.85.

The looming Nov. 15 deadline for hedge fund redemption calls -- a key date for investors to pull their money out of hedge funds -- added to the selling, analysts said.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended lower in choppy trading on Friday as demand worries persisted amid dismal retail sales data and a stronger dollar.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down $1.20, or 2.06 percent, at $57.04 a barrel, trading from $55.69 to $59.96. Thursday's intraday low of $54.67 was the lowest since $53.82 was hit on Jan. 30, 2007.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November expired down 9 cents at $8.78 a bushel; January up 2 at $8.96.

Led up by strong rally in wheat, but gains limited by weak crude oil, falling stock markets and disappointing weekly export sales.

NOPA reports October soy crush at 143.4 million bushels, above average estimate for 142 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December down 0.21 cent at 32.60 cents per lb.

Pressed by the weakness in crude oil. NOPA reported October soyoil stocks 1.984 billion lbs, versus September 1.988 billion.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed lower on Friday on faltering crude oil, but speculation in the market of stronger export data limited the downside, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 25 ringgit, or 1.69 percent lower, at 1,455 ringgit ($404) per tonne.

Other traded contracts were mostly lower, falling between 3 ringgit and 22 ringgit. The overall volume stood at 9,812 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Major Southeast Asian stock markets closed slightly higher on Friday but an early rally in Singapore fizzled out due to selling of blue chips such as DBS Group, and pressure on the rupiah capped gains in Indonesia.

Other markets in the region gave up most of their strong early gains because of worries about the global economic slowdown, reflected in easing oil prices, and caution before a meeting of G20 policy makers, analysts said.

Singapore's main stock index <.FTSTI> ended up 0.21 percent, after earlier surging 3.5 percent.

Indonesia <.JKSE> edged up just 0.37 percent as the rupiah stayed under pressure after the authorities' efforts to regulate foreign exchange outflows stoked rather than removed investors'fears the currency was set for a steeper fall.

Thai stocks <.SETI> slid 0.81 percent to 429.97 after rising almost 2 percent in early trade. Malaysian shares <.KLSE> posted a small 0.12 percent rise at the close.

DJI Weekly: remains cap in range


DJI continue to extend its range trading with downside support pegged at 7882-7929. While, upside resistance maintain at 9708-9794.

Market Outlook 2009


Title: Market Outlook 2009
Date: 13th December 2008
Time: 9.30am - 1.00pm
Venue: 11th Floor, Junior Auditorium, Plaza OSK, Jalan Ampang, 50450, Kuala Lumpur
Fees: Free of Charge(Refreshments will be provided)

To participate, kindly make RSVP with Ryan Chua or Ahmad Lokman at 03-27332238 / 03-21615489 or via e-mail at palmdesk@osk.com.my before 28 November 2008. Early registration is highly recommended due to limited seats.

Friday, November 14, 2008

FCPO Weekly: DOWNTREND remains intact


Market remains bearish mode and nothing much changes on the overall technical landscape. Downside support is pegged at 1331. For upside, we look for the immediate resistance at 1723-1736 followed by 1905-1934 (gap left over since 5/10/2008).

Trader's Comment: CPO futures surrendered its earlier gains to end at negative territory after a mix trading day

CPO futures surrendered its earlier gains to end at negative territory after a mix trading day. Benchmark Jan09 initially open RM40 higher at 1520, following the surge in overnight NYMEX crude oil of nearly 4% coupled with higher CBOT soy complex. However, traders remained concern on the weak fundamentals, with global demand still poor while production and end stocks were at higher level. Easier NYMEX crude oil in Asian time zone prompted some selling activities into BMD, this sent Benchmark Jan09 prices to slide to hit intra day low at 1447 in the afternoon session. Statement issued by CLSA which stated that palm oil may reach RM1000 next year due to oversupply and low demand for biofuel, also provided selling pressure onto the already weak sentiment. Later, Benchmark Jan09 bounce back to 1488 due to some short covering activities emerged before it settled at 1455.

FKLI Weekly: Facing resistance at 927


Gains capped following market failed to break through the immediate resistance at 927. Bear remains stayed firm with its posture. As for now, we continue to look for the support at 800 mark. For upside, immediate resistance is at 927 followed by 959-962.5.

KLSE Weekly: Maintain BEARISH


Nothing much changes on the weekly technical landscape. We maintain our bearish view towards the near term market. For now, we continue to look at the underline support at 800 mark. For upside, overhead resistance is at 970.

Breaking News-RTRS-India's Oct veg oil imports up 24 percent y/y-trade

NEW DELHI, Nov 14 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in October rose 24 percent to 827,000 tonnes against the same month last year, a leading trade body said on Friday.
Imports in the oil year to October were at 6.3 million tonnes, up from 5.6 million tonnes in the previous year, data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed.

Breaking News-Palm Oil May Average 32% Lower in 2009 on Oversupply, CLSA Says

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The price of palm oil may average 32 percent lower next year, partly because of oversupply and fading demand for biofuels, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets said.
Palm oil will probably fetch 1,000 ringgit ($278) a ton in 2009, and 1,250 ringgit in 2010, analysts at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Kuala Lumpur said in a report today, slashing forecasts for the next two years by 46 percent and 32 percent, respectively.
Palm oil, down 58 percent in the past six months, yesterday closed at 1,480 ringgit in Malaysia. Malaysia is the world's second-largest producer of the edible oil.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-NOPA October soy crush estimated at 142 mln bu

CHICAGO, Nov 13 (Reuters) - National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush data to be released on Friday morning should show an October U.S. soybean crush of about 142 million bushels, analysts said on Thursday.
Estimates ranged from 135 million to 147 million bushels and compare with NOPA's September soy crush figure of 120.4 million.
Analysts' expected NOPA soyoil stocks to be down 45 million to up 2 million lbs from its September stocks figure of 1.988 billion lbs.

Breaking News-RTRS-INSTANT VIEW 4-German Q3 GDP contraction worse than expected

BERLIN, Nov 13 (Reuters) - German gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.5 percent in the third quarter, putting Europe's largest economy in recession for the first time in five years, Federal Statistics Office figures showed on Thursday.

Breaking News-RTRS-(USD) Global hedge fund lost $100bn of assets in Oct

(USD) The global hedge fund industry lost $100bn of assets in Oct., hammered by
redemptions, according to Eurekahedge. Funds fell an average 3.3% vs. 19% drop
in MSCI World Index in Oct. The biggest market losses since the Great
Depression and investor withdrawals hurt the $1.7trn hedge funds industry. The
index of global funds has lost 11% this yr, set for the worst performance since
2000. The trend toward redemptions in the hedge fund industry is expected to
last for another 6 mo. Some expect combined with investment losses, hedge fund
assets may shrink to $1.3trn, a 32% drop from the peak in June-Bloomberg.

Breaking News-RTRS-FUND VIEW-Affin says Malaysian stock market bottoming out

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Malaysia's Affin Fund Management is ready to snap up local stocks as it believes the market is bottoming out after falling nearly 40 percent this year.
Affin sees value in the plantation, oil and gas sectors and in consumer products, its head of investment Anuwar Idris told Reuters.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks surged on Thursday and broke a three-day losing streak after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched new five-year lows earlier in the session, prompting investors to put aside worries about the flagging economy and scoop up wilted shares at fire-sale prices.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> jumped 552.59 points, or 6.67 percent, to 8,835.25. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> surged 58.99 points, or 6.92 percent, to 911.29. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> climbed 97.49 points, or 6.50 percent, to 1,596.70.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended more than $2 per barrel higher on Thursday, gaining for the first time in three sessions, as Wall Street rallied on bargain-hunting after three days of sharp losses.

Before the late rally, crude futures were down after U.S. government petroleum inventory data showed that gasoline and distillate stocks rose last week.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled up $2.08, or 3.7 percent, at $58.24 a barrel, trading from $54.67, lowest since prices hit $53.82 on Jan. 30, 2007, to $59.11. It rose further to $59.66 after settlement.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- November up 1-3/4 cents at $8.87 per bushel; January down 1 at $8.94.

Choppy, mixed. Pressure stemmed from fears of a global recession cutting into demand. Some South American farmer hedge selling also contributes to bearish tone, along with corn/soy spreading. Demand from China seen cooling.

National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crushing report set for release on Friday. Analysts expect crush at 144 million bushels.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December up 0.23 cent at 32.81 cents per lb. Turned higher as crude oil rallied.

FCPO-JAKARTA, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures closed nearly 4 percent lower on Thursday, but were off lows on short-covering after crude oil recovered some losses, traders said.

The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 59 ringgit, or 3.83 percent lower, to 1,480 ringgit ($411) per tonne, after having dropped earlier to 1,435 ringgit.
Other traded contracts fell between 38 ringgit and 75 ringgit. The overall volume stood at 13,001 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-Most Asian markets were hurt by uncertainty about the U.S. Treasury's banking rescue plan and signs the global financial crisis was biting deeper in Asia.

Thailand's main stock index <.SETI> closed down 0.51 percent. In Kuala Lumpur, dominant fixed-line operator Telekom Malaysia ended down 0.72 percent after initially falling more than 8 percent after brokers cut the stock's target
price following a third-quarter net loss.

DJI Daily: defended well


Market tested the immediate support at 8143 in intra-day basis and managed to recover to close triple digit up. Market looks is extending its range trading following a long white candle printed. Resistance and support is now at 9794-9653 and 7882-7965 level respectively.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

KLSE Daily: remains weak


Market momentum remains weak. We continue to look for the upside at 889-890. Downside support remained at 868-867 followed by 850-848.

FKLI Daily: more room to downside potential


Market broke out from the triangle to end with double digit losses. However, we can see a good defend at 862.5-863.5. As for now, immediate resistance is at 875.5-877 followed by 881-883.

FCPO Daily: end of consolidation phase


It's the end of consolidation phase following 1500 mark failed to defend. Looks market may continue its downside move in near term. We now look at the resistance at 1496-1505 (gap left over today) followed by 1545-1565. For downside, support is pegged at 1391-1358 followed by 1331.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended RM59 lower after recovered some of its earlier losses

Palm oil futures ended RM59 lower after recovered some of its earlier more than 5 % losses. Benchmark Jan09 initially open RM56 lower at 1483 following overnight NYMEX crude oil which settled more than $3 lower, coupled with lower CBOT soy complex. CPO then immediately tumbled down to hit intra day low of 1435 during the afternoon session, as NYMEX crude oil trade below $55 a barrel (which is also a 22-month low) at Asian time zone. ECBOT and Dalian palm also follow suit. Nevertheless, CPO prices encountered strong short covering activities in the later part of 2nd session. Benchmark Jan09 rebounded sharply but failed to reach today’s left over gap. It hit the intra day high at 1496 before it settled at 1480, as traders began to speculate on the decision of OPEC members to cut output by year-end.

Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-China think-tank cuts '08 soy output estimate

BEIJING, Nov 12 (Reuters) - A Chinese grain think-tank revised downward its forecast for the country's 2008 soybean output by 1 million tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes due to lower yields in the country's largest soybean area.
The projection was still 30 percent higher than last year's output, according to the report by the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC).

Breraking News-RTRS-Australia seeks permanent ban on naked short selling

CANBERRA, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Australia proposes to permanently ban naked short selling of stocks in response to the global financial crisis, and will pass laws for more disclosure for covered short selling, Corporate Law Minister Nick Sherry said on Thursday.
Sherry said the government would also propose increasing regulation and supervision of ratings agencies.
The proposals will go before parliament today for debate.