SAO PAULO, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Brazil's government raised its estimate for the 2011/12 corn crop to a record 72.7 million tonnes on Thursday, compared to its 69.48 million tonne forecast from July.
It kept its forecast for the now completed soybean crop nearly the same at 66.4 million tonnes compared to 66.37 million tonnes from July.
Friday, August 10, 2012
RTRS- Minimal drought relief forecast for US crops
CHICAGO, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Midday weather updates on Thursday show no major let-up from the relentless drought in the U.S. Midwest that has slashed the corn crop and is now eating away at soybean production prospects, an agricultural meteorologist said.
"No significant shift from the pattern short term, there will be a few light showers but no soaking rains," said Kyle Tapley, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.
Tapley said light showers and cooler temperatures could be expected through the balance of this week which will provide minimal relief to crops that have been struggling against the yield-robbing impact of the worst drought in 56 years.
"The six to 10-day (next week) is for drier weather with highs in the 90s (degrees Fahrenheit/32-37 degrees Celsius) and drier and cooler weather could be expected in the 11-15 day forecast (into mid-August) in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio," Tapley said.
Elsewhere in the Midwest, the outlook for two weeks out is for only minimal showers but cooler temperatures as the 2012 heat wave begins to wind down, Tapley and other meteorologists said.
"There will be some improvement, the cooler temperatures certainly will help. But most of the Midwest has not had enough rain for significant improvement," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.
"Crops may stabilize or decline a little more the next couple of weeks," he added.
Rainfall this week totaled 0.25 to 1.00 inch (0.6-2.5 cm) and was scattered over about half of the Midwest, but only about 25 percent received the heavier amount.
"There will be better rains today in the eastern Corn Belt, and the good news is that high temperatures the next couple of weeks will be in the 70s to 80s degrees Fahrenheit rather than 100 F," Karst said.
But "certainly no drought busting rains," he stressed.
Another round of modest showers were forecast for next week that will mimic the occasional downpours of the past couple of days, Karst said.
Commodity Weather Group (CWG) said the Midwest should be slightly wetter and cooler for the next two weeks, but soybeans in the U.S. Delta, a lush crop region near the lower Mississippi Valley, would be drier for the next 10 days.
That dryness would add stress to an already struggling soybean crop.
"Shower potential has become more limited in the next 10 days in the Delta. This will pose the greatest threat to double-crop soybeans in areas of Arkansas and bordering sections of Tennessee and Mississippi," said CWG meteorologist Joel Widenor.
Chicago Board of Trade corn futures soared to record highs on Thursday and the soybean market leaped over 3 percent as investors bought, bracing for government and private projections of sharp declines in domestic crop prospects.
USDA on Friday will release its August crop report and traders were getting prepared for another bull run in prices.
Domestic corn inventories could fall to a 17-year low next summer following this year's harvest, and soybean supplies could drop to their lowest in 32 years as drought continues to trim production prospects, according to a Reuters poll of grain analysts.
Soybean conditions began to stabilize last week on improved weather in a broad swath of the Midwest, while corn conditions declined again. Still, the ratings for both remained the worst since 1988. (nL2E8J635O)
In the past week, extreme drought doubled its grip on the top corn and soybean producing state of Iowa, according to a report by a consortium of climate experts issued Thursday.
The area under extreme drought in Iowa rose dramatically to 69.14 percent from 30.74 percent a week ago.
Drought expanded in other important farm states over the last week as well, to 94 percent of Missouri and more than 81 percent of Illinois for at least extreme drought.
"Every day we go without significant rain ... is tightening the noose," said Mark Svoboda, a climatologist with the University of Nebraska's National Drought Mitigation Center.
Trader's Highlight
DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - The Standard & Poor's 500 extended its rally to a fifth day on Thursday, again eking out a tiny gain as lingering expectations for economic stimulus from central banks lent support to a market lacking new catalysts.
While the S&P 500 has chalked up three-month highs every day this week, the index has climbed only 0.6 percent over the past three sessions - an indication that investors aren't prepared to make aggressive bets despite better-than-expected jobless claims and U.S. trade data.
The Nasdaq outperformed the other two major U.S. stock indexes, led by Cisco Systems Inc CSCO.O after Goldman Sachs added the company to its conviction buy list and Piper Jaffray upgraded it to "overweight." Cisco rose 3.2 percent to $17.70 and was the Dow's biggest percentage gainer.(nL4E8J9668)
The three major U.S. stock indexes seesawed throughout the morning, with the S&P 500 mostly hovering above 1,400 in light trade as investors bet central banks would soon act to support a global recovery that has shown signs of stalling.
"It's almost eerie how flat the market has been. But while there's a risk of our becoming overbought, I don't see why we'd see a decline of any magnitude until we hear what central banks will do," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 10.45 points, or 0.08 percent, to 13,165.19 at the close. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX inched up 0.58 of a point, or 0.04 percent, to 1,402.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 7.39 points, or 0.25 percent, to close at 3,018.64.
Markets held on despite a raft of weak Chinese economic data. Annual growth in factory output slowed to its lowest in more than three years in July while annual consumer price inflation hit a 30-month low. (nL4E8J93OR)
"This news is disappointing, but it only emboldens investors that we'll be rescued by central banks somewhere," said Luschini, who helps oversee $54 billion in assets.
Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell last week while the U.S. trade deficit in June was the smallest in 1-1/2 years, hopeful signs for the struggling economy. (nL2E8J92F7)
Beauty products maker Elizabeth Arden RDEN.O forecast 2013 profit above estimates on stronger sales and its shares jumped 13 percent to $44.02. (nL2E8J735Q)
Of the 445 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported second-quarter earnings through Thursday morning, 68 percent have reported earnings above analysts' expectations, in line with the average over the last four quarters.
Volume was light, with about 5.41 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, well below last year's daily average of 7.84 billion.
About 52.5 percent of companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed higher, while 53 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares gained for the day.
NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up a penny on Thursday, paring gains as the potential threat to U.S. Gulf Coast energy infrastructure from Tropical Storm Ernesto faded, while the stronger dollar .DXY helped limit gains from supportive economic data.
U.S. gasoline RBc1 and heating oil HOc1 futures rose more than 2 cents, tracking higher with stronger Brent crude LCOc1 futures.
CBOT SOYBEAN-Benchmark November soybean futures SX2 on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 3 percent, their biggest rise in a month, on news of U.S. soy sales to China and positioning a day ahead of the U.S.Department of Agriculture's August supply/demand reports.
* USDA said exporters reported sales of 165,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13. (nL2E8J92NL)
• Export traders said China may have purchased up to about half a million tonnes of U.S. soybeans for September through December shipment. The spot CIF soybean barges basis at the Gulf GRYM jumped to a three-year peak as exporters scrambled for nearby supplies.
• Bull-spreading noted in CBOT soybean futures, with nearbys gaining against back months, due to the nearby U.S. soy sales to China and expectations of continued strong demand for U.S. supplies until the next South American soy harvest starts in February.
• CBOT soymeal supported by news that a Kansas ethanol plant was suspending operations (nL2E8J976K), a move that was seen restricting supplies of dried distillers' grain, a source of protein in animal feed, and raising demand for soymeal.
• Traders await USDA's monthly supply/demand reports on Friday. Analysts expect USDA to lower its forecasts of U.S. soybean production, yield and harvested acreage, as well as ending stocks for both 2011/12 and 2012/13. (nL2E8J7353)
• Modest rains in portions of the Midwest this week to provide only minimal relief from drought. Rainfall this week totaled 0.25 to 1.00 inch and was scattered over about half of the Midwest, but only about 25 percent received the heavier amount. (nL2E8J9304)
• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 300,400 tonnes, below trade expectations for 350,000 to 450,000 tonnes.
• USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 211,700 tonnes, above trade expectations, and soyoil sales at 12,900 tonnes, below expectations.
• Brazil's government kept its forecast for the now completed soybean harvest nearly unchanged at 66.4 million tonnes, compared to 66.37 million tonnes in July. (nE5E8EL040)
• CBOT once again reported no deliveries of soybeans or soymeal against August futures. But soyoil deliveries totaled 846 contracts.
FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures recovered a little on Thursday from a near 8-week low hit the previous day, although traders remained cautious ahead of a slew of key industry reports that could stir more market volatility.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its monthly supply and demand report on Friday that is likely to show a cut in estimates for new-crop soy output, potentially limiting edible oil supply and shifting some demand to palm oil.
Traders are looking out for the July stocks data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), which is likely to have reached a five month high and could help shore up a deficit in global vegetable oil supply. PALM/POLL
"(Palm oil) futures are a little bit oversold so we are expecting some technical pullback. But upside potential is very limited as long as Malaysian stocks remain on the high side," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.
The benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended 0.1 percent higher at 2,865 ringgit ($923) per tonne. Prices touched a low of 2,854 ringgit on Wednesday, a level last seen on June 15.
Total traded volumes were thin at 20,741 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots.
Malaysian palm oil stocks likely climbed in July to their highest since February as exports slow and production rises, snapping four straight months of declines, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday. (nL4E8J73WI)
Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will release exports data for the Aug 1-10 period also on Friday. PALM/ITS PALM/SGS
Palm oil exports suffered a double-digit decline in July as festival demand eased, cargo surveyor data showed. Traders are now pinning their hopes on the recently announced tax-free crude palm oil export quotas of 2 million tonnes to help reduce stocks in coming months.
The industry is also watching out for a possibility of El Nino returning to Southeast Asia, as the hot and dry weather pattern could damage palm oil yields for top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.
REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly higher on Thursday, with Indonesia being led higher by banking shares and Thailand extending gains for a fourth session amid renewed appetite for refinery shares on hopes of an earnings recovery in the second half.
Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE rose 0.99 percent, led by a 3.8 percent rise in top lender Bank Mandiri Tbk BMRI.JK. Thai SET index .SETI gained 0.3 percent as refiners, including Thai Oil TOP.BK and Esso ESSO.BK, jumped on strong volumes.
Singapore markets were closed for a public holiday.
The Philippine index .PSI slid 0.98 percent, erasing a modest gain of 0.5 percent on Wednesday as investors cashed in gains in the rallying market. It has risen 20.2 percent so far this year, and is Southeast Asia's second-best performer.
Ayala Land Inc ALI.PS, the Philippines' biggest property developer, dropped 5 percent, wiping out a three-day gain of 8.5 percent following the company's release of strong six-month net profit. (nL4E8J329B)
"There will be a shortage in terms of market-moving news, going forward, after the earnings reporting season. I guess it was a perfect time to take some profits off the table," said analyst Jose Vistan of AB Capital Securities Inc in Manila.
RTRS-Indonesia trims 2012 palm oil output forecast by 8 pct
JAKARTA, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, has lowered its earlier output forecast by 8 percent to 23.6 million tonnes this year, an agriculture ministry official said late on Thursday.
Earlier this year, the same ministry said it expected production of the edible oil to rise 14 percent to 25.7 million tonnes this year, from 22.5 million tonnes in 2011. (nL3E8C933G)
Gamal Nasir, director-general of plantation at the agriculture ministry, gave no reason for the change, at a media briefing in Jakarta.
The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expects crude palm oil output to increase 6 percent to 25 million tonnes in 2012 due to rising plantation areas.(nL3E8C43TJ)
Rising demand for palm oil - used in cosmetics, cookies and ice cream - has led to deforestation that has prompted an Indonesian moratorium on new permits to clear forests from May last year. (nL3E7GQ05F)
Nasir also said output of cocoa beans in the world's No. 3 producer, would be 833,310 tonnes this year, versus January's forecast at 1.3 million tonnes and 712,230 tonnes in 2011.
At the time of the government's January predictions, analysts were sceptical that cocoa output in Indonesia would rise above 1 million tonnes and said the figure would later be revised downwards.
The country is battling disease and adverse weather conditions, which have hampered the country's cocoa supplies in recent years.
Last month, a survey showed that the government's $350 million government programme aimed at reviving Indonesia's cocoa industry had suffered a serious setback after most newly planted trees died. (nL3E8IA3ZL)
Indonesian rubber output for this year will be 3.27 million tonnes versus an early forecast at 2.7 million tonnes, and coffee production is seen at 748,110 tonnes from 718,000 tonnes and 633,990 tonnes in 2011, Nasir added.
In June, the Indonesian Rubber Association (Gapkindo) said output in the world's second-biggest producer would slip by as much as 10 percent to about 2.65 million tonnes this year.
Dry weather and falling global prices, were cited for the fall by Gapkindo. (nL3E8HP1PL)
Indonesia is considering investing $526 million over three years to boost and improve output in its rubber trees, starting in 2013. (nL4E8IJ338)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
