RTRS-UPDATE 2-Informa sees higher US corn, soy acreage than USDA

CHICAGO, April 3 (Reuters) - Informa Economics Chief Executive Officer Bruce Scherr said on Tuesday that the firm has raised its forecast of U.S. 2012 corn plantings to 96.4 million acres, from 95.5 million in its previous estimate released March 9.

Speaking at a conference in Chicago, Scherr also said Informa lowered its forecast of U.S. 2012 soybean plantings to 74.2 million acres, from 75.1 million previously.

The firm's acreage figures for both crops are above the latest numbers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which last week projected U.S. 2012 plantings of corn at 95.9 million acres and soybeans at 73.9 million acres.

If realized, USDA's corn projection would mark the most U.S. acres planted to corn in 75 years. Given favorable weather this spring and summer, the crop could help replenish U.S. corn inventories that are expected to drop to a 16-year low this summer.

Farmers had responded to more favorable projected returns for corn during the winter months by earmarking more acres for the crop. Although soybean prices have rallied in recent weeks, soybean prices need to rally to a larger premium over corn to entice producers to switch to planting the oilseed, Scherr said.

"We were running our calculations early on with a $120 premium for (the return on) corn over soy per acre. We're now down to maybe no advantage for corn, but it doesn't lend for putting in more bean acres," he said on the sidelines of the State of Agribusiness conference.

"It's going to have to go the other way and we haven't seen it happen yet. In fact, the market action right after the USDA report (on March 30) didn't give that much more of an advantage to beans when it was all said and done," he said.

The ratio of new-crop November soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade over new-crop December corn , which traders normally monitor to gauge the acreage battle, widened to 2.51-to-1 after the report and peaked at a high of 2.54-to-1 this week before pulling back.

Planting is off to a good start. USDA reported that 3 percent of the U.S. corn crop had been seeded as of Sunday, matching the fastest pace on record, as farmers took advantage of unusually warm weather in March to get a jump on field work.

Soybeans are typically planted after corn.

RTRS--BRAZIL'S 2011/12 SOY CROP SEEN AT 65.2 MLN T VS 67.1 MLN T MARCH VIEW - AGROCONSULT

SAO PAULO, April 3 (Reuters) - Drought over Brazil shrunk the world's second-largest soybean crop to an estimated 65.2 million tonnes this 2011/12 season, down from 67.1 million tonnes forecast in March, local crop analysts Agroconsult said on Tuesday.

Brazil put out a record harvest of 75.3 million tonnes of soybeans last season. Strong exports of the 2010/11 crop late last year will likely allow Brazil to displace the United States as the largest exporter of the world's most important source of protein.

RTRS-South American soy crop outlook worsens- Oil World

HAMBURG, April 3 (Reuters) - Soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil have suffered from more poor weather and harvest forecasts for the two countries may have to be cut by a combined 2-3 million tonnes, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

"New reports have been received confirming additional crop losses, further eroding the potential South American export supplies of soybeans and products," Oil World said.

"The South American supply situation could really become serious and exports of soybeans and products may be forced to decline significantly in Sept. 2012/Jan. 2013."

There are new indications that drought in parts of Argentina has created irreversible soybean crop damage, it said.

On March 20 Oil World had reduced its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop by 0.5 million tonnes to 46.5 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million in 2011.

The United States is the world's largest soybean producer followed by Brazil with Argentina in third place.

"We may be forced to shave 1.0 to 1.5 million tonnes off our Argentine soybean crop estimate," Oil World said.

On March 20 Oil World also cut its forecast of Brazil's 2012 soybean crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 66.5 million tonnes compared with 75.3 million tonnes in 2011 because of drought and crop fungus.

Oil World said there is a risk it may have to cut the Brazilian estimate by a further 1.0-1.5 million tonnes because of low yields achieved so far in Brazil's harvest after drought.

U.S. soybean prices touched new six-month highs on March 26 on expectations drought damage to South American soybean harvests would transfer global import demand to the United States and rose again on Friday following U.S. planting estimates

"The additional (South American) supply reductions are likely to keep soybean prices well supported and probably trigger an renewed upturn in coming weeks," Oil World said.

RTRS-UPDATE 1-Argentine soy, corn output seen lower - Rosario

BUENOS AIRES, April 3 (Reuters) - Argentina's biggest grains exchange slashed its forecast for 2011/12 soy production to 43.1 million tonnes on Tuesday as the extent of drought damage becomes clearer, especially in northern provinces.

Rosario grains exchange said acute damage to crops in Tucuman, Salta, Chaco and Santiago del Estero had led it to cut its previous forecast for production of 44.5 million tonnes.

"The reductions as a result of dryness are very significant in those areas," the exchange said in a report.

Argentina, the world's No. 3 soy supplier and the top exporter of soybean oil and meal, was hit by dry weather during sensitive crop development stages in December and January.

While rains have brought relief to many growing areas since then, damage in the worst-hit regions has dimmed overall harvest prospects, Rosario's report said, estimating the average yield at 2.3 tonnes per hectare.

It also lowered its outlook for 2011/12 corn production a shade to 19.7 million tonnes from 19.8 million tonnes previously. Average yields were estimated at 5.5 tonnes per hectare.

Argentina is the world's second-biggest corn provider after the United States and farmers had initially hoped for a record crop this season until the dry spell struck.

Trader's Highlight

NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - World stocks fell and gold prices dropped 2 percent o n Tuesday as minutes from the latest U.S. central bank meeting showed policymakers may be less willing to launch further economic stimulus.

The dollar rose 1 percent against the yen, while safe-haven bonds slid. Federal Reserve policymakers, in their March meeting minutes, noted recent signs of slightly stronger growth but remained cautious about a broad pick-up in U.S. economic activity.

Still, the minutes suggested the appetite for another dose of stimulus via quantitative easing, so-called QE3, has eased.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 64.94 points, or 0.49 percent, to end at 13,199.55. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 5.66 points, or 0.40 percent, at 1,413.38, retreating from a four-year high.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, April 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Tuesday as worries about lackluster demand and fading prospects for more monetary stimulus from the U.S. central bank countered concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Federal Reserve policymakers appear less inclined to implement any more monetary stimulus as the U.S. economy gradually improves, according to minutes for the central bank's March meeting.

Oil prices also felt pressure from news that, according to industry sources, Saudi Arabia is likely to maintain high oil production in the event consumer countries release strategic oil reserves.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude fell $1.22, or 1.6 percent, to settle at $104.01 a barrel, having traded from $103.59 to $105.18.

CBOT SOYBEANS- Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell, on a
profit-taking setback after the spot contract earlier hit a seven-month high, traders said.

CBOT soybeans had increased 4.8 percent in the previous two sessions.

Soymeal followed soybeans lower on profit-taking and some reports of a softening cash soymeal basis in the U.S. Midwest following a pickup in farmer soybean sales in recent days.

Informa Economics CEO Bruce Scherr said the firm lowered its forecast of U.S. 2012 soybean seedings to 74.2 million acres, from 75.1 million previously. But the figure was above USDA's current 2012 forecast of 73.9 million. [ID:nL2E8F386T]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures touched their highest in more than a year on Tuesday, riding on the back of a smaller soybean crop and recovering palm oil exports, but ended the day almost flat, as traders scrambled to lock in profit.

Prices touched a high of 3,566 ringgit, a level unseen since March 9 last year, driving traders to book profit, and erasing gains after the midday break.

"Today the market volume's a bit light, at around 20,000 lots," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "There's a bit of profit-taking going on after palm oil broke a new high."

Benchmark June palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange eased 1 ringgit to close at 3,532 ringgit ($1,160) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at around 20,406 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 3 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks finished mostly higher on Tuesday and both Indonesia and Malaysia hit all-time closing highs as further signs of economic recovery in the United States bolstered sentiment in the region.

Jakarta's Composite Index <.JKSE> climbed 1.2 percent to a record high of 4,215.44, led by a 39 percent gain in PT Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk , also the most actively traded stock on the bourse.

Shares in Indonesia's sixth-biggest lender surged after a $7.2 billion takeover bid by Singapore's DBS Group.

DBS shares, the most actively traded on Singapore's bourse, fell 2.8 percent, dragging the city-state's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> 0.04 percent lower and erasing early gains.