HAMBURG, April 3 (Reuters) - Soybean crops in Argentina and Brazil have suffered from more poor weather and harvest forecasts for the two countries may have to be cut by a combined 2-3 million tonnes, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
"New reports have been received confirming additional crop losses, further eroding the potential South American export supplies of soybeans and products," Oil World said.
"The South American supply situation could really become serious and exports of soybeans and products may be forced to decline significantly in Sept. 2012/Jan. 2013."
There are new indications that drought in parts of Argentina has created irreversible soybean crop damage, it said.
On March 20 Oil World had reduced its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop by 0.5 million tonnes to 46.5 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million in 2011.
The United States is the world's largest soybean producer followed by Brazil with Argentina in third place.
"We may be forced to shave 1.0 to 1.5 million tonnes off our Argentine soybean crop estimate," Oil World said.
On March 20 Oil World also cut its forecast of Brazil's 2012 soybean crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 66.5 million tonnes compared with 75.3 million tonnes in 2011 because of drought and crop fungus.
Oil World said there is a risk it may have to cut the Brazilian estimate by a further 1.0-1.5 million tonnes because of low yields achieved so far in Brazil's harvest after drought.
U.S. soybean prices touched new six-month highs on March 26 on expectations drought damage to South American soybean harvests would transfer global import demand to the United States and rose again on Friday following U.S. planting estimates
"The additional (South American) supply reductions are likely to keep soybean prices well supported and probably trigger an renewed upturn in coming weeks," Oil World said.
"New reports have been received confirming additional crop losses, further eroding the potential South American export supplies of soybeans and products," Oil World said.
"The South American supply situation could really become serious and exports of soybeans and products may be forced to decline significantly in Sept. 2012/Jan. 2013."
There are new indications that drought in parts of Argentina has created irreversible soybean crop damage, it said.
On March 20 Oil World had reduced its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop by 0.5 million tonnes to 46.5 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million in 2011.
The United States is the world's largest soybean producer followed by Brazil with Argentina in third place.
"We may be forced to shave 1.0 to 1.5 million tonnes off our Argentine soybean crop estimate," Oil World said.
On March 20 Oil World also cut its forecast of Brazil's 2012 soybean crop by 1.5 million tonnes to 66.5 million tonnes compared with 75.3 million tonnes in 2011 because of drought and crop fungus.
Oil World said there is a risk it may have to cut the Brazilian estimate by a further 1.0-1.5 million tonnes because of low yields achieved so far in Brazil's harvest after drought.
U.S. soybean prices touched new six-month highs on March 26 on expectations drought damage to South American soybean harvests would transfer global import demand to the United States and rose again on Friday following U.S. planting estimates
"The additional (South American) supply reductions are likely to keep soybean prices well supported and probably trigger an renewed upturn in coming weeks," Oil World said.
