Monday, November 5, 2012

RTRS- INTL FCStone raises U.S. corn and soybean production estimates

CHICAGO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone INTL.O on Thursday said it raised its forecast for U.S. 2012 corn production to 10.881 billion bushels, above its previous estimate of 10.824 billion.

The firm raised its estimate of the corn yield slightly to 124.0 bushels per acre, up from 123.9 in its previous monthly report.

For soybeans, INTL FCStone pegged U.S. 2012 soybean production at 2.959 billion bushels, up from 2.849 billion last month. The firm estimated the soybean yield at 39.1 bushels per acre, up from 38.2 previously.

The figures were based on a survey of the firm's customers, among other factors. The firm used the U.S. Department of Agriculture's estimates of harvested acres as part of its calculations.

The USDA's latest outlook projected U.S. 2012 corn production at 10.706 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 122.0 bushels per acre. USDA estimated the U.S. soybean crop at 2.860 billion bushels, with an average yield of 37.8 bushels per acre.

The USDA was scheduled to issue updated crop estimates on Nov. 9.

RTRS- Informa raises U.S. 2012 soybean crop estimate

CHICAGO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Private analytics firm Informa Economics raised its estimate of the U.S. 2012 soybean crop to 2.925 billion bushels from 2.86 billion previously, trade sources said Friday.

The firm raised its estimate of the average U.S. soybean yield to 38.6 bushels per acre from 37.8 last month.

The figures were above the latest estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which last month put the U.S. soybean crop at 2.86 billion bushels, based on a yield of 37.8 bushels per acre.

The government was scheduled to release updated crop estimates on Nov. 9.

For corn, Informa said in a note to clients that it expected USDA next week to raise its estimate of U.S. 2012 corn production to 10.738 billion bushels, with a yield of 122.4 bushels per acre, slightly above the government's October production forecast of 10.706 billion bushels, with a yield of 122.0 bushels per acre.

Informa's corn forecasts were down from its own Oct. 5 estimates, which pegged the corn crop at 11.194 billion bushels, with a yield of 127.0 bushels per acre.

Informa said it did not expect USDA to change estimates of 2012 harvested acreage until its final U.S. 2012 crop production report in January. As a result, Informa based its production changes primarily on yield adjustments.

Informa said it lowered corn yields by about one bushel per acre from USDA's October figures for states in the eastern Midwest. Informa raised yields by about the same amount for states in the western Midwest.

Informa said it made the biggest change in Indiana, cutting its estimate of that state's corn yield to 90 bushels per acre, 10 bushels below USDA's October estimate for the state.

In contrast to corn, Informa raised its estimate of soybean yields in the eastern Midwest by about 1.5 bushels per acre from USDA's October figures. The firm raised soybean yields in the western Midwest by only about 0.5 bushel per acre.

RTRS- India should tax crude palm oil imports at 10 pct-Mistry

NEW DELHI, Nov 4 (Reuters) - India should impose a 10 percent tax on crude palm oil imports to protect its farmers and the industry from cheap imports, a leading analyst said on Sunday.

Many trade and industry officials fear that India, the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils, could hike imports as inventories surge in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.

Falling benchmark Malaysian prices could also lead to higher purchases from India, they say.

"It is important for the Indian government to think in terms of some small protection, say a 10 percent import duty on crude palm oil, to protect India’s poor oilseed farmers," Dorab Mistry, director at Godrej International Ltd, told an industry conference in New Delhi.

India's edible oil imports are likely to rise more than 4 percent to 10 million tonnes in the 2012/13 (November-October) marketing year as domestic output lags rising demand.

"Indian inflation will soon come under control. Once that happens, it will be necessary to levy a small import duty on unrefined vegetable oil imports," Mistry said.

Wholesale price inflation is running at around 7.8 percent.

Currently India allows tax-free imports of crude vegetable oils and imposes 7.5 percent duty on refined varieties. Palm oil constitutes about 80 percent of India's cooking oil imports.

But India should avoid taking frequent administrative measures such as increasing or lowering import levies and should focus on raising productivity of oilseeds, said Thomas Mielke, who heads Germany's Oil World publication.

Malaysian stocks rose to a record high of 2.48 million tonnes in September, data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed.

Malaysian palm oil prices have dropped 21 percent so far this year as stocks rise in Indonesia and Malaysia and demand slumps due to the economic slump.
On Friday, benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures closed at 2,496 ringgit a tonne, down 1.6 percent.

India used to import crude palm oil from Indonesia, the world's biggest producer. But New Delhi turned to Malaysia after Indonesia cut export taxes for refined palm oil to encourage its own processing industry and limiting sales of crude palm oil.

Both Indonesia and Malaysia will have record stocks of palm oil at the start of next year, while South American soybean output will rise in the first three months of 2013, Mistry said.

India looks likely to harvest a good rapeseed crop, he said.

Farmers in India plant rapeseed, the main winter-sown oilseed, from October and harvest starts in March.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Global stocks and crude oil retreated on Friday even after a U.S. employment report for October surpassed expectations, as investors looked beyond next week's presidential election to anemic outlook for global economic growth.

The dollar jumped to a more-than-six-month peak against the yen and a three-week high versus the euro after U.S. employers stepped up hiring and the unemployment rate ticked higher as more workers renewed job hunts, a hopeful sign for the economy.

Demand for U.S. factory goods also rose in September by the most in over a year, but a gauge of business investment plans showed lackluster momentum in the economic recovery despite a slight upward revision.

But the plans for business spending highlighted the anemic outlook for the global economy next year, a picture that is shining through in corporate results.

"We’ve seen the market trend lower primarily related to disappointing revenue reports coming out of third-quarter earnings stream," Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co in Lake Oswego, Oregon. "There may be a little bit of pre-election jitters as well hitting the market."

Corporate earnings have been decelerating for months and are expected to be flat in 2013 when compared to this year's fourth quarter, said Ben Halliburton, chief investment officer at Tradition Capital Management in Summit, New Jersey.

"Europe is clearly going into a deep recession, Japan is anemic, China is not going to be the growth engine next year, so you look around for engines of growth and it's pretty difficult to find on a global basis," Halliburton said.

The employment data was the last major report card on the U.S. economy before Tuesday's presidential election. Polls show President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney locked in a dead heat in a race that may hinge on the nation's feeble jobs market.

Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York, said the employment report was good but "not good enough" to push stock higher.

An equity sell-off late in the session pushed stocks down 1 percent of more.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI closed down 139.46 points, or 1.05 percent, at 13,093.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 13.39 points, or 0.94 percent, at 1,414.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC slid 37.93 points, or 1.26 percent, at 2,982.13.

For the week, the Dow shed 0.1 percent and the Nasdaq ended 0.2 percent lower, but the S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent.

Despite the surprisingly strong jobs date, the economy is still struggling, helping bond prices to pare losses to rebound.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=RR pared losses to trade up 3/32 in price, with its yield at 1.719 percent.

"Incomes aren't really growing, and if incomes don't grow, how can spending grow?" said Wilmer Stith, vice president and portfolio manager of the Wilmington Broad Market Bond Fund in Baltimore. "By no means is the economy out of the woods."

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares .FTEU3 closed up 0.5 percent at 1,115.19.
Oil fell as weak European data reinforced a gloomy picture for the demand outlook. Euro zone manufacturing shrank for the 15th month running in October as output and new orders fell, a survey showed.
Weak growth, high prices and better vehicle fuel efficiency pushed down fuel consumption in most of Western Europe over the summer, official statistics showed.

Also, the auto market in western Europe maintained a sharp descent toward levels last seen nearly 20 years ago as consumers worried about unemployment and euro zone austerity affected car dealerships in October.
Brent crude for December LCOc1 settled down $2.49 to $105.68 a barrel, while U.S. crude for December delivery CLc1 fell #2.23 to settle at $84.86.

The dollar was aided by the jobs report and some safe-haven buying, while the euro slid on the dismal economic outlook.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Nov 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell more than 2 percent on Friday, snapping a string of three straight higher settlements and posting a third consecutive weekly loss, as fears about fuel shortages after superstorm Sandy began to ease and the stronger dollar applied pressure to dollar-denominated oil.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 2, halting a three-day rally, pressured by rising estimates of the U.S. 2012 soy harvest and strength in the dollar, traders said.

* Informa Economics raised its estimate of the U.S. 2012 soybean crop to 2.925 billion bushels, from 2.86 billion previously, and raised its soy yield estimate to 38.6 bushels per acre, from 37.8 last month.

• Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone late Thursday pegged the U.S. soy harvest at 2.959 billion bushels, up from 2.849 billion last month. The firm raised its soy yield estimate to 39.1 bushels per acre, up from 38.2 previously.

• Both firms' estimates came in above USDA's October figures for a 2.86 billion-bushel soy crop with a yield of 37.8 bushels per acre. USDA is set to release updated estimates on Nov. 9.

• Additional pressure stemmed from strength in the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. commodities less competitive on the global market. The dollar firmed after data showed the U.S. economy created more jobs than expected last month.

• For the week, spot CBOT soybeans Sc1 fell 2.2 percent while soymeal SMc1 fell 1.6 percent and soyoil BOc1 fell 3.3 percent on the week.

• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 760,600 tonnes (741,200 for 2012/13), above trade expectations for 550,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

• USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 73,200 tonnes, below trade estimates for 125,000 to 225,000 tonnes. Soyoil export sales came in at 28,500 tonnes, with a range of expectations for 15,000 to 30,000.

• Malaysian palm oil futures fell to a two-week low as investors remained cautious on market expectations of record high stocks in October.
• CBOT reported 605 deliveries against November soybean futures, with JP Morgan customer accounts stopping 459 lots.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Nov 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged down on Friday to a two-week low, as investors remained cautious on market expectations of record high stocks in October.

Prices were earlier locked in a tight range as traders looked for fresh trading cues, although bearish sentiment seemed to dominate despite strong export numbers that could help ease stocks.

"The market is still stuck within a range and finding direction," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "End stocks in October are going to hit higher, around 2.63-2.65 million tonnes. With record-high stocks, the market can't be bullish."

The benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 1.6 percent to close at 2,496 ringgit ($818) per tonne, after going as low as 2,490 ringgit, a level last seen on Oct. 18.

Total traded volumes stood at 25,866 lots of 25 tonnes each, a tad higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

For the week, the edible oil posted a 4.1 percent loss as prices came under pressure on lower November taxes in top producer Indonesia and as Sandy, one of the worst storms to hit the United States in years, triggered fears of slower commodity demand.

Technicals showed palm oil will retest a support at 2,497 ringgit per tonne, with a good chance of breaking it and falling to 2,469 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Malaysian October palm oil exports surged to 1.6 million tonnes, the highest so far this year, thanks to significantly stronger European demand.

But concerns remained that stocks could still climb above an all-time high of 2.48 million tonnes in September on seasonally high output. The industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, will release official data for October inventory levels on Nov. 12.

Brent crude held steady near $108 a barrel on Friday as investors look ahead to key jobs data from the United States for more signs of economic recovery, which would boost fuel demand.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 slipped 1.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also fell, closing 2.2 percent lower.

REGIONAL EQUITY-Nov 2 (Reuters) - Malaysian stocks fell 1.2 percent on Friday, ending two straight weeks of gains, with telecoms shares such as Axiata Group AXIA.KL falling alongside regional peers as investors cashed in on recent gains in the sector.

Malaysia's key stock index .KLSE ended at a near three-week closing low of 1,656.13, taking the loss on the week to 0.9 percent, the second worst after Vietnam's 4.2 percent.

Malaysia's index hit a record finish at 1,675.69 on Thursday. It was up 8.2 percent in 2012, still lagging others in the region. Axiata Group, the most actively traded, dropped 4.9 percent, trimming its gain this year to 19.8 percent.

Telecoms shares underperformed across the region, with Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM.JK falling 2.1 percent, Singapore Telecommunications STEL.SI down 0.3 percent and Thailand's Advanced Info Service ADVA.BK down more than 3 percent.

Bucking the trend, Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI rose 0.5 percent, after two days of falling, with a 0.6 percent loss on the week. The Thai SET index .SETI edged up 0.7 percent. It posted a weekly gain of almost 2 percent after last week's 1.98 percent fall.

Recently battered shares rebounded, with Thailand's Bangkok Bank BBL.BK gaining 1.7 percent, regaining recent lost ground, hit by weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings.

The Philippine index .PSI posted a 0.36 percent gain on the week in the holiday-shortened week. The Manila bourse was closed on Thursday and Friday and will resume trade on Monday.