Palm Oil Drops to Two-Month Low as Brazil’s Soy Supplies Cl‏imb

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Palm oil declined to the lowest level since January on concern that a bumper soybean crop in Brazil, poised to be the world’s largest grower this year, will boost global oilseed supplies and damp demand.

The contract for May delivery dropped as much as 1.5 percent to 2,362 ringgit ($759) a metric ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the lowest most-active price since Jan. 14.

Futures were 2,363 ringgit at close of the morning session in Kuala Lumpur, down 30 percent in the past year.

About 11.9 million tons of soybeans and its products were scheduled for shipment at major ports in Brazil as of yesterday, up from 10.77 million tons a week ago, according to SA Commodities and Unimar Agenciamentos Maritimos.

The country is set to overtake the U.S. this year as the top exporter of the beans that can be crushed to make soybean oil. “Buyers know that the supply is coming, so they may be only willing to offer lower prices,” said Alan Lim Seong Chun, an analyst at Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd., referring to oilseeds from Brazil.

Soybean oil for May delivery fell 0.2 percent to 49.41 cents a pound on the Chicago Board of Trade, while soybeans for May delivery retreated 0.5 percent to $14.40 a bushel. Soybean oil was about 1.44 times costlier than palm.

Refined palm oil for delivery in September dropped 0.7 percent to 6,296 yuan ($1,012) a ton on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean oil for delivery in the same month was little changed at 8,032 yuan a ton.

RTRS - UPDATE 1-India's Feb palm oil imports drop 10 pct mm, duty hike hurts

NEW DELHI, March 14 (Reuters) - India's palm oil imports dropped almost 10 percent in February from an all-time high in the previous month, a trade body said on Thursday, hurt by a duty hike to curb cheap imports from Southeast Asia and higher stock levels.

India is the world's biggest importer of vegetable oils and leading producers Indonesia and Malaysia have been vying to make their oils more attractive by varying taxes. India retaliated with an import duty hike on crude palm oil in January.

It imports about 8-9 million tonnes a year or about half its total demand. Palm oil accounts for about 80 percent of imports.

India's vegetable oil imports fell about 17 percent to 969,175 tonnes last month with palm oil imports dropping to 805,362 tonnes, the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said in a statement.

A Reuters survey had forecast average vegetable oil imports to be 981,500 tonnes in February, including 794,000 tonnes of palm oil.

India buys palm oil mainly from Malaysia and Indonesia and a small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

Huge stocks built up due to higher imports in recent months and softer domestic demand as the rapeseed harvest started led to lower imports in February, said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Mumbai-based trader body.

But he cautioned imports were "still on the higher side and domestic prices are expected to fall in coming months", adding that this could mean domestic oilseeds growers might cut production.

In January, India's vegetable oil imports rose to 1.2 million tonnes, with palm oil imports surging 13 percent on the month to a record 893,313 tonnes.

New Delhi slapped a duty of 2.5 percent on crude palm oil during the second half of January to curb imports, but refiners have demanded a further rise to protect themselves and domestic oilseed growers.

As India's population grows in size and wealth, demand for cooking oils is rising. New Delhi tries to encourage local oilseed production, partly by guaranteeing minimum prices to farmers, but has had limited success.

RTRS - Dollar rises across the board on upbeat U.S. data

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to a seven-month high against a basket of currencies and a three-month peak against the euro on Wednesday as robust U.S. retail sales data bolstered prospects for the world's largest economy.

The greenback has risen nearly 4 percent against a currency basket and about 1.8 percent versus the euro so far this year. It has outperformed most major currencies in 2013.

The U.S. retail sales data was the latest evidence that the economy is firing on almost all cylinders. The Commerce Department said February retail sales increased 1.1 percent, the largest monthly rise since September.

"The growing dichotomy between the ever-improving U.S. economic picture and the moribund conditions in the euro zone has finally pushed the euro through the $1.2950 key support level against the dollar," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.

• U.S. retail sales post largest rise since September
• U.S. economy outperforms, boosting dollar sentiment
• Euro hurt by higher Italian bond yields after auction
• RBNZ keeps rates steady, says won't raise rates this year

RTRS - RPT-AccuWeather says most of US setting up for good growing year

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Reuters) - The spring weather pattern for the United States looks greatly improved from a year ago, when drought was both widespread and severe, which is good news for agricultural producers, a private weather forecaster said on Wednesday.

A series of winter storms, which have continued into March, add up to a more positive outlook for crops that will be planted from the Plains to the East Coast, AccuWeather said in its 2013 U.S. spring weather outlook.

"A bumper crop of corn alone later this summer could eventually reduce the pressure on grain, livestock feed and other consumer prices," said the firm, which is based in State College, Pennsylvania.

"Compared to last year, for the season as a whole, more moisture will be available for agriculture due to lower temperatures and lower evaporation rates from the Mississippi Valley to much of the Atlantic coastal plain."

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has projected record large U.S. corn and soybean crops this year, assuming normal growing conditions. New-crop futures at the CBOT are trading well below old-crop in anticipation of bumper harvests.

"We expect ample moisture during most of the growing season, with few exceptions into this summer from the Mississippi Valey to the East Coast," said Paul Pastelok, head of AccuWeather's long-range forecasting department.

Echoing a recent U.S. government forecast, AccuWeather said that parts of California and the Florida peninsula could experience drought or at least drier-than-normal conditions into the first part of the summer.

"A lack of big snowstorms over the Sierra Nevada and other ranges in the West could mean water resource limitations in California," the firm said.

But overall, the severe drought that extended over much of the United States in 2012, and hammered U.S. corn, soybean and wheat growers, is not expected to be repeated.

Winter storms have added up to near-normal snowfall for major cropping areas of the lower Plains through the Midwest and in parts of the Northwest United States, AccuWeather said.

Average temperatures are also significantly lower this March from a year ago, which will result in lower evaporation rates for a time.

"Overall, less long-lasting, extreme heat is forecast from the Mississippi Valley to the East during most of the spring and summer," the group said.

One negative of cooler spring temperatures is that crops generally could be planted later this year, limiting the opportunity for double-cropping, said Dale Mohler, an agricultural weather specialist with the firm.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged up on Wednesday, with the Dow rising for the ninth straight session to another record, buoyed by surprisingly strong retail sales that suggested the economy is gaining momentum.

The Dow Jones industrial average's nine-day winning streak is the longest consecutive run since November 1996.

But trading volume was light. Moves have been muted in recent days as investors consolidate positions after a strong run-up in the first three months of the year. Still, weakness in stocks has been met with buying, which helped propel the market's advance.

The broader S&P 500 is within striking distance of its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 and about 1 percent away from all-time intraday high of 1,576.09 - both set in 2007.

"I think we will soon see the S&P at all-time high levels. I don't think the market has topped yet, and there is still strength to move the market higher," said Ari Wald, technical strategist at C&Co/PrinceRidge in New York.

"Will we see a correction of 10 percent or so soon? Not imminently. We have not seen a divergence of behavior yet where participants become more selective on which stocks to buy."

The Dow Jones industrial average gained 5.22 points, or 0.04 percent, to 14,455.28, another record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 2.04 points, or 0.13 percent, to 1,554.52. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 2.80 points, or 0.09 percent, to end at 3,245.12.

Signs of strength in the economy and the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy have helped U.S. equities accelerate their advance. The blue-chip Dow is up 10.3 percent for the year and the benchmark S&P 500 index has gained 9 percent.

Wednesday's retail sales report reinforced the view that the U.S. economy has momentum, even with the obstacles the recovery is facing. Sales increased 1.1 percent in February, the largest increase since September.

Investors had been looking for signs of any impact on spending from stubbornly high unemployment and a higher payroll tax that went into effect at the start of the year.

Brent Crude Oil - NEW YORK, March 12 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil fell on Tuesday after seesawing with the euro and the dollar, and as OPEC's trimmed forecast for U.S. and euro zone economic growth also applied pressure.

Brent April crude fell 57 cents, or 0.52 percent, to settle at $109.65 a barrel, having traded from $109.30 to $111.20.

CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.5 percent on technical selling and talk of slowing demand from top global soy buyer China, traders said.

* The most-active May soybean contract fell for a second straight session, dropping below its 20-day moving average to settle at its lowest level since March 1.

 

·         Market pressured by weakening cash soybean bids in the  U.S. Pacific Northwest, which signaled a slowdown in export  demand as the South American harvest progresses. Cash bids for   soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf also eased. 

 

·         Nearby soybean contracts lost to back months on spreads, eroding some of the premiums that shorter-dated contracts have  built up amid concerns about historically tight U.S. supplies.

 

·         The spring weather pattern for the United States looks  greatly improved from a year ago, when drought was both  widespread and severe, AccuWeather said in its 2013 U.S. spring weather outlook.

 

·         Losses in soyoil limited by firming U.S. cash values.

·         Egypt's Meditrade issued an international tender to purchase up to 15,000 tonnes of soyoil and 15,000 tonnes of  sunflower oil, European traders said. 

 

·         CBOT said deliveries against March futures included five  contracts of soybeans, one for soymeal and three for soyoil. 

BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a two-month low on Wednesday as weakness persisted in overseas soybean markets, although traders said easing palm oil output should provide some support.

U.S. soybean prices have been pressured by weak export demand, which also weighed on soybean oil, with China's soybean oil losing more than 3 percent so far this week.

Palm oil tends to track soybean oil prices closely as the commodities are used as substitutes for one another. But traders said a decline in production in February that may continue this month could provide some support for palm oil prices.

"Liquidation persists in futures, although some traders think it is funds-related," said a trader with a commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "The well-advertised supply constraints should keep fundamentals intact."

By Wednesday's close, the benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had dropped 0.6 percent to 2,397 ringgit ($773) per tonne, slightly above its intraday low of 2,365 ringgit, a level unseen since January 14.

Total traded volume stood at 31,784 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

But despite short-term weakness, market participants said palm oil fundamentals remained intact, on hopes that stocks will continue to ease on lower production and a demand recovery.

Malaysian palm oil stocks fell to 2.44 million tonnes in February from 2.58 million in January, thanks largely to a near 20 percent drop in production. 

Export demand for the March 1-10 period was flat with a month ago, with traders now shifting their focus to the March 1-15 data due on Friday for a better indication of the demand trend.

Crude palm oil shipments fell by more than half after Malaysia raised its export tax for the grade to 4.5 percent from zero percent. Top rival Indonesia increased its tariff to 10.5 percent from 9 percent for the month.

In other markets, Brent futures eased on Wednesday as Asian equities lost ground on concerns their recent rally was running out of steam, but expectations of steady global consumption growth and a surprise fall in U.S. stockpiles held the benchmark above $109 a barrel.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery edged down 0.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange lost 1.8 percent.

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, March 13 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday as weaknesses in Asia weighed on appetite for risk assets, with losses in large-caps and financials pulling Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia down to their lowest close in nearly a week.

Singapore' Straits Times Index was down 0.4 percent at 3288.52, paring gains from the past two sessions. Jakarta's Composite Index (JCI) slid 0.4 percent to 4,835.44, playing catch-up with regional losses, after being shut on Tuesday.

CIMB strategists maintained an 'overweight' rating on Indonesia and kept its JCI index target at 5,100, reflecting its earnings upgrades of listed firms.

"An upward earnings revision for the second month in a row in February by 1 percent was rewarded with an impressive 8 percent gain in the JCI during the month," they wrote in a report dated March 12.

"We stay overweight for now, betting on further earnings upside. Our March picks center mainly on mid- and small-cap growth and value stocks in property and banking," it said.

Shares in PT Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk, among CIMB's top picks in March, eased 0.5 percent to 9,900 rupiah. The stock hit a record close of 10,050 rupiah on Feb. 28.

Kuala Lumpur's Composite Index , Asia's worst performer this year, fell 0.6 percent to 1,646.22. Among losers, CIMB Group Holdings Bhd shed nearly 2 percent.

In Singapore, Keppel Corp Ltd was down 1.1 percent after the world's largest builder of offshore oil rigs lost a deal worth $1.2 billion.

After a rangebound session, the Thai index ended up 0.13 percent at 1,578.70, a new 19-year closing high. The Philippine index was down 0.15 percent at 6,776.56 while Vietnam fell for a second day, down 0.5 percent.