BEIJING, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Chinese soybean buyers will probably limit their imports in the week ahead, following a slump in domestic soymeal and soyoil prices, an official survey released on Thursday showed.
But lower imports in August and September, coupled with a smaller domestic harvest, could prompt buyers to resume strong imports later, said the National Grain and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC).
China's soy imports in September were expected to be near the same low level as in August, or at about 2.6 million tonnes. The low imports have reduced stockpiles of imported soy at ports.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures edged lower on late liquidation after the earlier mix trading.
Palm oil futures edged lower on late liquidation after the earlier mix trading. Benchmark Nov09 opened RM19 lower at 2226 following the weak close in overnight CBOT soy oil. Initially, it was well supported as it bounced back steadily began to hover between 2235-2258 level through out most of the sessions. However, the emerged of intra day liquidation activities in late trading led Benchmark Nov09 to ease off and tumbled lower to settle RM27 lower at the intra day low of 2218. Spill over from the bullish China equity market and positive Asian time NYMEX crude oil had lent some support to BMD in the earlier session. Nevertheless, weak vegetable oil market continued to pressure FCPO.
Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Informa ups its 2009 US corn/soy crop estimates
CHICAGO, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Analytical firm Informa Economics raised its forecasts for the 2009 U.S. corn and soy crop, expecting bigger yields given good August rains and steady to better crop ratings over the past month, trade sources said on Thursday.
But Informa expects final yields to be even bigger than its September forecasts.
The firm's September 2009 U.S. corn production forecast is for a 13.010-billion-bushel crop, reflecting an average yield of 162.6 bushels per acre. Soybean output is seen at 3.305 billion bushels with an average yield of 43.1 bpa.
Informa's final corn output estimate is 13.304 billion bushels, reflecting a yield of 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.372 billion with an average yield of 44.1 bpa.
If realized, both harvests would be the largest in history.
But Informa expects final yields to be even bigger than its September forecasts.
The firm's September 2009 U.S. corn production forecast is for a 13.010-billion-bushel crop, reflecting an average yield of 162.6 bushels per acre. Soybean output is seen at 3.305 billion bushels with an average yield of 43.1 bpa.
Informa's final corn output estimate is 13.304 billion bushels, reflecting a yield of 168 bpa, and soybeans at 3.372 billion with an average yield of 44.1 bpa.
If realized, both harvests would be the largest in history.
Trader's Highlight
DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Thursday after better-than-expected retail sales in August spurred optimism, but gold climbed to almost $1,000 an ounce in a sign of lingering risk aversion and fear of future inflation.
Crude oil slipped, settling just under $68 a barrel, as disappointing news from the labor market outweighed upbeat data showing that the U.S. service sector and retail sales improved.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 63.94 points, or 0.69 percent, at 9,344.61. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 8.49 points, or 0.85 percent, at 1,003.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 16.13 points, or 0.82 percent, at 1,983.20.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, but little changed from the previous session as traders grappled with mixed economic data and turned cautious.
Commodity markets were mixed and traders were awaiting Friday's key U.S. employment report for August to get a picture of how the labor market is faring as the economy fights its way to recovery from recession. The government report is due at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October crude settled down 9 cents, or 0.13 percent, at $67.96 a barrel, trading trading from $67.66 to $69.40.
CBOT-SOYBEANS - September down 27-1/4 cents per bushel at $9.82. November down 9-1/2 at $9.41-1/2.
Forecast for record U.S. soy crop, collapsing cash basis and collapsing spreads weighed on soybean futures.
CBOT-SOYOIL - September down 0.04 cent at 34.08 cents per lb. Weakness in soy markets pressures prices.
U.S. soyoil stocks 3.338 billion lbs in July, down from June 2009 stocks of 3.417 billion - Census.
FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell 1.2 percent to hit a fresh 5-week low as prospects of higher global vegetable oil supplies as well as uncertain financial markets and weak technicals sapped sentiment.
The benchmark November palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange settled down 27 ringgit to 2,218 ringgit ($628.3) per tonne, a level unseen since July 31.
REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Thai stocks climbed to their
highest in a year on Thursday, leading the way up in Southeast Asia, as shares in big-cap mobile phone operators jumped amid optimism about the prospect for the rollout of 3G services.
Indonesia's index <.JKSE> rose 1.6 percent, Malaysia's index <.KLSE> gained 0.5 percent. The Philippine index <.PSI> eased 0.2 percent and Vietnam's index <.VNI> dropped 1.3 percent on resuming trade after a market holiday on Wednesday.
In Singapore, Genting Singapore jumped 6.5 percent and Neptune Orient Lines , the world's fifth-biggest container shipping firm, was up 4.1 percent.
Crude oil slipped, settling just under $68 a barrel, as disappointing news from the labor market outweighed upbeat data showing that the U.S. service sector and retail sales improved.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 63.94 points, or 0.69 percent, at 9,344.61. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> rose 8.49 points, or 0.85 percent, at 1,003.24. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> gained 16.13 points, or 0.82 percent, at 1,983.20.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Thursday, but little changed from the previous session as traders grappled with mixed economic data and turned cautious.
Commodity markets were mixed and traders were awaiting Friday's key U.S. employment report for August to get a picture of how the labor market is faring as the economy fights its way to recovery from recession. The government report is due at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October crude
CBOT-SOYBEANS - September
Forecast for record U.S. soy crop, collapsing cash basis and collapsing spreads weighed on soybean futures.
CBOT-SOYOIL - September
U.S. soyoil stocks 3.338 billion lbs in July, down from June 2009 stocks of 3.417 billion - Census.
FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures fell 1.2 percent to hit a fresh 5-week low as prospects of higher global vegetable oil supplies as well as uncertain financial markets and weak technicals sapped sentiment.
The benchmark November palm oil contract
REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Thai stocks climbed to their
highest in a year on Thursday, leading the way up in Southeast Asia, as shares in big-cap mobile phone operators jumped amid optimism about the prospect for the rollout of 3G services.
Indonesia's index <.JKSE> rose 1.6 percent, Malaysia's index <.KLSE> gained 0.5 percent. The Philippine index <.PSI> eased 0.2 percent and Vietnam's index <.VNI> dropped 1.3 percent on resuming trade after a market holiday on Wednesday.
In Singapore, Genting Singapore
FCPO Daily: Losing strength to defend
Market is losing strength to defend following prices close at day low penetrated recent low at 2220 level. Thus, we maintain bias downside potential in near term market. Currently, we are looking for the downside support at 2175-2155 (gap left over on 31/7/2009). To the upside, resistance is maintain at 2280-2299(gap left over on 2/9/2009).
CBOT Soyoil Daily: Remains in negative mode
Market remains in negative mode. We maintain bearish view towards the near term market. Currently, we continue to look for the immediate support at 33.50 followed by 33.23. To the upside, resistance is pegged at 34.90-35 followed by 35.50-35.60.
NYMEX Crude Daily: Bears hibernated
Bears were hibernated as prices was not much changes on the immediate technical landscape. Hence, we maintain our view sideways to lower in near term. We are looking for the immediate downside support at USD67.05 followed by 66.11-65.23. To the upside, immediate resistance is maintain at 69.71-69.83 followed by 71.25-71.37.
SSE Daily: Gaining ground
Market found its immediate base and rebounded strongly to close the upside gap left over at 2817-2843 level. Immediate technical outlook has been improve a little. Nevertheless, more support confirmation is still needed to change the current negative outlook to positive. Thus, market may consolidate in near term with immediate downside support is maintain at 2639-2635 (unfilled gap left over since 1/6/2009) followed by 2538 levels. While, upside resistance is looking at 2900-2950 followed by 3020-3039 (gap left over on 17/8/2009).
FKLI Daily: May target previous high at 1189.5 levels
Two straight days of sharp rebound had brighten up the immediate daily technical landscape to continue its upward momentum. Market looks may target higher following upside gap at 1171.5-1173.5 was fully covered. As for now, upside resistance is looking at 1189.5 (high since 10/8/2009). To the downside, support is pegged at 1156.5 followed by 1149.
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