Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended marginally higher after recouped from its earlier losses on strengthening external markets.

Palm oil futures ended marginally higher after recouped from its earlier losses on strengthening external markets. New Benchmark Sep09 initially fell through out the morning session after opened almost unchanged, and then hit intra day low of 2358 before morning closed. However, CPO market began to gain back strength as external markets recovered strongly. Prices immediately gaped up to open at 2388 after second session resumed trading and continue to climb steadily until it hit intra day high of 2425, before it finally settled RM11 higher at 2400. eCBOT soy oil gained more than 2% in late Asian time trading while Dalian palm ended to inch higher. Asian time NYMEX crude oil also rebounded from its earlier losses to trade above $71 level. Meanwhile, short-covering activities also provided some support to the CPO prices.

Breaking News-RTRS-INTERVIEW-Malaysia palm output to stay weak for next 2 yrs

KUALA LUMPUR, June 16 (Reuters) - Palm oil output growth in Malaysia will stay weak for the next two years because an aggressive replanting scheme and hot weather will aggravate yield stress in oil palms, an industry regulator said on Tuesday.
But the extent of output softening hinges on the severity of the brewing El Nino weather condition, which has previously brought droughts to the world's No. 2 producer of the vegetable oil, Sabri Ahmad, chairman of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), said.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended sharply lower on bearish export data and worsening external markets.

Palm oil futures ended sharply lower on bearish export data and worsening external markets. Benchmark Aug09 gapped down RM15 lower at 2450 tracking the last Friday sharp losses in CBOT soy oil and NYMEX crude oil. Prices then continue to fall through out most of the sessions until it hit intra day low of 2375 before it finally settled RM65 lower at 2400. The released of the bearish export figure by both private cargo surveyors had given traders the excuse to sell down aggressively on FCPO prices. ITS & SGS had reported a decline of 10.2% and 9.4% respectively on the 1-15 June export data. Furthermore, the weak external markets had also further fueled the selling sentiment in the local CPO market. Asian time NYMEX crude oil continued to fall more than $1 to trade below $72 level. Dalian palm also ended 1.7% lower while eCBOT soy oil edged lower in late Asian time trading today. Lack of buying interest at the underlying cash market also weighed on prices.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled, marking their worst slide in a month on Monday after regional manufacturing data dented optimism about the economy's health and resource shares fell alongside commodity prices.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 187.13 points, or 2.13 percent, to 8,612.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 22.49 points, or 2.38 percent, to 923.72. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 42.42 points, or 2.28 percent, to 1,816.38.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended down for a second straight session on Monday as the dollar strengthened and as concerns about economic recovery persisted after data showed that manufacturing slumped further in the
state of New York.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude settled down $1.42, or 1.97 percent, at $70.62 a barrel, trading from $69.58 to $72.35.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - July down 48-1/2 cents at $11.97 a bushel, November down 51-3/4 at $10.24-3/4.

Traders taking profits from recent rally to nine-month high amid firm dollar and improving growing weather. Monthly crush data supportive to Jul/Nov spread. July at a $1.72-1/4 premium to November.

National Oilseed Processors Association says soybean crushings were 142.2 million bushels in May, above trade expectations for 134.5 million to 139.4 million bushels.

Trade talk was China bought four to six cargoes of soybeans out of Brazil and Argentina during the weekend.

Traders expect USDA to report that U.S. soy planting is 90 percent complete. Soybean ratings were seen in a range of 65 to 68 percent good to excellent.

CBOT-SOYOIL - July off 0.54 cent at 36.62 cents a lb. Drop in crude oil and weakness in soybeans pressured soyoil prices.

NOPA said May soyoil stocks at 2.684 billion lbs, versus 2.710 billion in April.

FCPO
-KUALA LUMPUR, June 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled as much as 3.7 percent to hit near two-month lows on Monday as weaker commodity prices across the board and demand concerns gripped the market, traders said.

The benchmark August contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange fell as much as 90 ringgit to 2,375 ringgit ($673.9) per tonne, a level unseen since April 17, before settling at 2,400 ringgit. Overall volume shot up to 17,947 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, June 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday, with Singapore, Thailand and Indonesia approaching a one-week low as retreating oil prices pushed energy and commodity shares lower.

The Singapore index <.FTSTI> ended down 2.6 percent, Thailand's index <.SETI> dropped 2.7 percent, Indonesia <.JKSE> lost about 1 percent and Vietnam <.VNI>, Southeast Asia's best performer last week, fell 3.2 percent.

Bucking the trend, Malaysia's index <.KLSE> inched up 0.09 percent, with Maybank rising 2.5 percent and Bumiputra-Commerce climbing 1.1 percent.

DJI Daily: facing resistance at 8800-9000 mark


Market is losing ground to test the support at 8600 and looks is facing resistance at 8800-9000 level. Downside support adjusted to 8500 followed by 8200.

KLSE Daily: Upward posture remains good


Market maintains it upward posture with both resistance and support are pegged at 1100 and 1080-1070 level respectively.

FKLI Daily: may due for a healthy consolidation


Up-trend was pretty well maintain. However, market may due for a healthy consolidation phase in near term as technically show overbought. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 1092-1100. Downside support is pegged at 1075-1070 followed by 1065-1060.

FCPO Daily: looks tiredness


Immediate technical outlook looks tiredness and weakened further despite closing at 2400 mark. We are now looking for the immediate support at 2350, violation of it may provide more downside room. Next support will be looking at 2320-2300. To the upside, immediate resistance is at 2450 followed by 2500.