RTRS- FACTBOX-Top analysts to issue forecasts on 2012 palm oil markets

March 5 (Reuters) - Traders, planters and refiners will discuss palm oil prices and the state of the industry this week at Bursa Malaysia's three day conference in Kuala Lumpur -- the largest and first industry gathering for 2012.

Following are the predictions last year by the top three analysts who closely follow vegetable oil markets and benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures.

THOMAS MIELKE: Speaks at 11.05 am (0305 GMT) on March 7

The Hamburg-based analyst has published vegetable oils and oilseed newsletter Oil World since the mid-1980s. Mielke focuses on the supply dynamics of the world's 17 oils and fats, 10 oilseed and 12 oilmeals.

FORECAST IN 2011: Malaysian palm oil prices to fall to 2,850 ringgit in October-December 2011 on higher palm oil production. He also said palm oil prices were not sustainable at $1,250 per tonne. [ID:nL3E7E914W]

WHAT HAPPENED: Palm oil prices fell to 2,754 ringgit on Oct 6, the lowest in the last quarter of 2011, due to signs of bumper palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia.

JAMES FRY: Speaks at 11.35 am (0335) on March 7

Oxford-educated Fry is the chairman of global commodities consultancy LMC International. He uses statistical data on Brent crude oil, Malaysian palm oil stocks and biodiesel usage for his forecasts.

FORECAST IN 2011: A hard landing or sharp fall in prices would see Brent crude oil at $70 a barrel and crude palm oil at 2,250 ringgit a tonne in the fourth quarter, after a price spike in the second quarter. [ID:nL3E7E90QB]

A soft landing or gradual easing of prices would lower Brent crude oil to $85, and crude palm oil to 2,660 ringgit in the fourth quarter.

WHAT HAPPENED: The market went for a soft landing with palm oil prices dropping to 2,754 ringgit per tonne on concerns over euro zone debt crisis and ample edible oil supplies.

But losses were limited by strong demand and crude oil staying above $100 a barrel.

DORAB MISTRY: Speaks at 2.30 pm (0630) on March 7

London-based Mistry handles the international vegetable oil trading portfolio for India's Godrej Industries . He is known for his bullish view on palm oil prices and presents papers in relation to India, the world's top palm oil buyer.

FORECAST IN 2011: Palm oil to hit 4,000 ringgit per tonne in the next few weeks after March on higher energy prices, tight stocks and pent up demand for vegetable oils. [ID:nL3E7E904Z]

WHAT HAPPENED: Prices went as low as 3,163 ringgit weeks after Mistry's forecast due to concern

RTRS-UPDATE 1-INTERVIEW-India's palm imports to rise as rapeseed output slumps

KUALA LUMPUR, March 5 (Reuters) - Palm imports by the world's top buyer India will rise about 8 percent in the current marketing year ending October 2012, an industry official said on Monday, adding that a consortium of Indian companies were looking to buy land in South America for soybean production.
A slump in domestic vegetable oil crops and robust demand, will buoy palm oil buys this year, B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, told Reuters.

India's rapeseed crop could fall as much as 15 percent to between 5.8 million-6.2 million tonnes in 2011/12, he added, speaking on the sidelines at the annual Palm and Lauric Oils Conference & Exhibition Price Outlook 2012.

"It will increase," said Mehta on palm oil imports. "I'm expecting this after looking at the Indian crop size and demand growth."

Indian imports of palm oil was about 6.5 million tonnes last year. "Imports are likely to be up by half a million tonnes and mostly that will be taken care of by palm," he said.

Mehta said India's rapeseed production, which was 6.8 million tonnes in 2010/2011, had been hit by both warm and cold weather conditions in the current year, although output assessments were still ongoing.

Indonesia, which overtook Malaysia as the No. 1 palm oil producer in 2007, has a palm export tax system that aims to boost downstream industries, secure domestic supplies and reduce volatility in cooking oil prices.

Last year, Southeast Asia's biggest economy changed the structure of its palm export taxes, raising the tax for crude palm oil shipments and cutting refined product (olein) taxes in an attempt to boost its downstream industries.

RTRS-Indonesia crude palm oil output revised down

"Indonesian crude palm oil production in marketing year 2011/2012 is predicted to decline from an initial estimate of 25.4 million tonnes to 25 million tonnes. This downward adjustment is primarily due to production losses because of widespread use of counterfeit seed stock.

"A coconut supply disruption has led to a decline in copra production by 8.75 percent from 1.6 million tonnes in MY 2009/2010 to 1.46 million tonnes in MY 2010/2011. Copra production is predicted to further decline to 1.43 million tonnes in MY 2011/2012.

"Indonesian production of crude coconut oil decreased by 28,000 tonnes in MY 2010/2011 due to lower supply of copra. CCO production is predicted to further decline to 905,000 tonnes in MY 2011/2012."

RTRS-UPDATE 2-Brazil's soy crop slashed as drought weighs on data

SAO PAULO, March 5 (Reuters) - Drought over Brazil's main southern grain states this season pushed down harvest and export estimates on Monday for the world's second biggest soybean crop.

The fresh downgrades in the leading South American soy crop may give further support to Chicago soybean futures which have been on a three-month tear, rising 21 percent since hitting a 14-month low mid-December.

Strong demand and damage to Brazil's and Argentina's soybean crops due to the recent dry weather, widely attributed to the effects of La Nina, have renewed concerns of global food shortages similar to those seen in 2008.

Grain crop analysts Celeres revised Brazil's 2011/12 soybean crop lower to 69.8 million tonnes, down from the 72 million seen in early February, as the effects of drought become more apparent.

Brazil harvested a record 74.9 million tonnes of soy last season, Celeres said.

Later in the day, the local grain crushing industry Abiove said Brazil would harvest 69.5 million tonnes, down from February's estimate of 71.9 million tonnes.

Abiove also said soybean exports would fall to 32 million tonnes from 33 million tonnes in its previous estimate. The grain industry association gave no explanation for the revision in its estimates.

Soy farmers had harvested 38 percent of the expected crop by March 2, up from 29 percent a week earlier and 24 percent a year ago, Celeres said. Historically, 22 percent of the crop is harvested by the first week of March.

The soy harvest is at its peak amid dry weather in the big production states. Local meteorologists Somar forecast dry, hot conditions in the main soy belt for the next week which will favor field work and the flow of grain to silos and trucks and onwards to ports for ships headed abroad.

Mato Grosso, Brazil's No. 1 soy state, is forecast to harvest a record 22.2 million tonnes, up from 20.5 million last year, after it dodged the drought that blighted states further south and expanded its planted area. Crops in No. 2 and No. 3 soy states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul have been ravaged by drought.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - World equity markets slipped on Monday after economic data raised expectations of a recession in Europe and global growth driver China signaled a slower economic pace ahead, while oil fell as supply worries driven by tensions over Iran offset the economic gloom.

Profit-taking on the dollar drove up the euro after it hit near two-week lows, ahead of Thursday's deadline for Greece to complete a bond swap with private creditors as part of a deal to secure a 130 billion euro ($172 billion) bailout and avoid a messy default.

Wall Street stocks followed declines in European and Asian stock markets, and a measure of equities' performance in emerging markets fell more than 1.0 percent.

Investors shrugged off data showing the massive U.S. services sector expanded in February at its fastest pace in a year. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 57.3 from 56.8 in January, besting economists' expectations of a drop to 56.1.

"With China reducing the expected growth rate, the concern is there is the possibility of a bigger downside," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed down 14.76 points, or 0.11 percent, at 12,962.81. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 5.30 points, or 0.39 percent, at 1,364.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> slid 25.71 points, or 0.86 percent, at 2,950.48.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures edged up on Monday, ending only 2 cents higher after tug-of-war trading as supply risks and tensions over Iran's nuclear program provided support, while gains were limited by concerns about
global economic growth.

The potential for supply disruptions due to Iran's dispute with the West over Tehran's nuclear program continued to support oil prices as U.S. President Barack Obama met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, hoping to convince Israel to give sanctions against Iran more time.

The United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran had tripled its monthly production of higher-grade enriched uranium and the IAEA chief added that the agency had "serious concerns" about possible military dimensions to Tehran's
activities.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, April crude rose 2 cents, or 0.02 percent, to settle at $106.72 a barrel, having dropped to $105.50 and reaching $107.42, a penny
under front-month crude's 10-day moving average.

CBOT SOYBEANS- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed lower, interrupting a 10-day rally on technical selling including profit-taking, traders said.

Soy market remains underpinned by concerns about lost production potential in South America, and worries that U.S. farmers might not plant enough soybeans this spring to meet global demand.

Grain analyst Celeres lowered its forecast of Brazil's 2011/12 soybean crop to 69.8 million tonnes, from 72 million in February, due to drought.

Grain crushing industry group Abiove cut its estimate of Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop to 69.5 million tonnes, from 71.9 million last month.

USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 32.552 million bushels, within a range of trade estimates for 32 million to 36 million bushels.

University of Missouri think tank FAPRI projected U.S. 2012/13 soybean plantings at 75.1 million acres, production at 3.243 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 301 million bushels.

The ending stocks figure was above USDA's preliminary Outlook Forum figure of 205 million bushel.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, March 5 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slipped on Monday as traders await a key price outlook meeting in Kuala Lumpur this week at which analysts are expected to paint a bullish picture for the sector.

Prices rose more than six percent in February alone, setting the stage for upbeat price outlooks at the Bursa Malaysia conference, given strong demand from India and China and prospects of lower soyoil supply from drought hit South America.

"Trading interest is dull as market players are waiting for cues from the Bursa Malaysia palm oil conference," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage. "Also, most external markets are quiet after huge moves last week."

Benchmark May palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 0.4 percent to close at 3,246 ringgit ($1,075) per tonne. Traded volumes were thin at 12,155 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots, as most dealers were attending the palm oil conference.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, March 5 (Reuters) - Stocks in Indonesia and Thailand slid while Philippine shares eked out small gains in light trade on Monday as China growth concerns prompted many investors to cash in recent gainers.

The prospects of slower growth in the world's second largest economy dampened sentiment across the region. Among the biggest losers were commodity-related stocks.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao cut his nation's growth target to 7.5 percent for 2012, compared with an 8 percent annual goal set for many years.

"China's lower economic growth forecast affected investment sentiment today. Investors also are waiting to see U.S. jobs data for further indication," said Pichai Lertsupongkij, head of investment advisory services at broker Thanachart Securities in Bangkok.

The U.S. jobs data for February will come out on Friday

Indonesia's coal mining firm PT Adaro Energy Tbk ,which surged 3.7 percent on Friday, fell 1 percent. Thai coal miner Banpu Pcl dropped 1.8 percent, erasing a 1.2 percent gain on Friday.

Noble Group Ltd dropped 2.1 percent in Singapore and Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd lost nearly 1 percent. Among bright spots, Philippine Ayala Land Inc surged 5.2 percent as low interest rates boosted its outlook.