Friday, March 8, 2013

Bloomberg - Volatility Rises Most in Malaysia as Flows Imperiled

Bloomberg - Currency swings are rising in Malaysia at the world’s fastest pace as concern mounts that the ruling coalition will lose its 55-year grip on power after attracting more foreign capital than any other emerging market except Mexico.

Full article :
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-08/volatility-rises-most-in-malaysia-as-flows-imperiled-currencies.html


Bloomberg - Soybeans Advance as U.S. Export Sales Jump, Draining Inventories


Bloomberg - Soybeans climbed after export sales from the U.S. jumped to the highest level since January before a government report that may show global supplies will decline.
The contract for delivery in May rose as much as 0.4 percent to $14.7875 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade and was at $14.7725 by 11:03 a.m. in Singapore, on a trading volume that was 55 percent less than the 100-day average for that time of day. Futures are set for a 2.3 percent advance this week.
Full article :
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-08/soybeans-advance-as-u-s-export-sales-jump-draining-inventories.html

RTRS - PREVIEW-Malaysia Feb palm stocks head for 6-mth low on seasonal output fall

KUALA LUMPUR, March 7 (Reuters) - An decline of nearly a fifth in output probably eased Malaysian palm oil stocks in February to a six-month low, a Reuters survey of five plantation companies showed on Thursday.

Inventory could have fallen 6.1 percent in February, the steepest decline since January 2011, to 2.42 million tonnes, which would mark the lowest level seen since last September.

Production in the world's second-largest producer may have fallen to 1.31 million tonnes, a decline of nearly 18.1 percent from 1.6 million the previous month, crimped by seasonal factors.

Exports of the tropical oil probably eased 14.4 percent from a month ago to 1.39 million tonnes in February, due to a shorter month and a fall in demand for refined palm products.

Imports of crude palm oil from top producer Indonesia are likely to have grown to 75,000 tonnes from 54,781 tonnes the month before, according to the poll.

FACTORS TO WATCH:
A lower inventory level may provide some support for the benchmark third-month contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange which has lost more than 6 percent in February.

Forecasts from six speakers at the Bursa Malaysia palm oil conference in the Malaysian capital showed prices could range from 1,800 to 3,200 ringgit this year, with the main focus on top analysts James Fry and Dorab Mistry.

Mistry was neutral on near-term prices, saying they should range between 2,300 and 2,500 ringgit till the end of April but might fall after that, while a more bullish Fry expected prices to climb to 2,625 ringgit by mid-year on biodiesel demand.

Market participants are watching closely developments in a standoff between the Malaysian army and an armed Filipino group in Sabah, which could possibly disrupt production in the state that contributes almost one-third of the country's output.

Traders also expect Malaysia to export less crude palm oil in March after the world's No.2 palm oil producer raised its export tax for the grade to 4.5 percent from zero.

Rival Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will increase its export tax for the crude grade to 10.5 percent in March from 9 percent the previous month.

Edible oil stocks in China and India were expected to hit a record in February, but the world's top two edible oil importers may still buy more this year, as cheap cargoes and low import tariffs help meet growing food consumption and rein in food-driven inflation.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed modestly higher on Thursday, with the Dow ending at a record for a third straight day as jobless claims data pointed to a pick-up in the labor market's recovery a day before the closely watched payrolls report.

The Dow and the S&P 500 were both up for their fifth straight days as investors looked for opportunities to buy into the recent rally. However, caution ahead of the jobs report curbed gains and kept the S&P more than 1 percent below its record close.

"Today’s move is pretty tranquil. No one is going to take big positions ahead of tomorrow’s number, but the market is definitely in an uptrend," said Paul Zemsky, the New York-based head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management.

Growth-oriented sectors led the day's gains. The S&P financial index  added 0.7 percent and hit an intraday high. Shares of Dow component Bank of America rose 2.9 percent to $12.26 while JPMorgan Chase & Co added 1.2 percent to $50.63.

A strengthening economy and loose monetary policy by central banks around the world have pushed U.S. stocks higher this year. Investors have kept buying into the market since Tuesday's rally, but gains have been more subdued.

Worries remain as Washington debates the path of fiscal policy, the euro zone is not out of its crisis, and U.S. economic growth remains anemic.

However, the latest economic data was encouraging, as the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to a seasonally adjusted 340,000. It was the second straight week of declines.

Investors will stay focused on the labor market ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs in February. While it has been a soft spot in the economic recovery, the labor market is seen as healing slowly.

"If payrolls disappoint, we'll have a pullback, but that won't be enough to derail the rally," said Zemsky, who helps oversee $170 billion. "If the report is strong, markets still have room to grow."

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 33.25 points, or 0.23 percent, to 14,329.49, a record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 2.80 points, or 0.18 percent, to 1,544.26. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 9.72 points, or 0.30 percent, to end at 3,232.09.


Brent Crude Oil - NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Brent crude futures edged up on Thursday in choppy trading as a restarted North Sea pipeline curbed gains, while supportive jobless claims data and a weaker dollar pushed U.S. crude up more than 1 percent.

Brent April crude rose 9 cents, or 0.08 percent, to settle at $111.15 a barrel, having traded from $110.41 to $111.40.


CBOT Soybean Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher Thursday on relentless export demand for tightening supplies of old-crop U.S. soybeans, traders said.

* The thinly traded March soybean contract, which is in delivery and expires next week, gained against most-active May, bolstered by talk of fresh export demand for U.S. soybeans out of the Pacific Northwest.

·         Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf   were mixed on Thursday morning, firming on the spot market but  weakening for supplies delivered in April, traders said.

·         Brazil's crop supply agency Conab cut its forecast of the  country's 2012/13 soybean harvest to 82.1 million tonnes, still   a record but down from 83.4 million in February. 

·         Brazilian dock workers plan a 24-hour nationwide strike on   March 19, a move that will add to the backlog of trucks waiting   to unload soy supplies, because talks with the government over  its plan to privatize ports have yielded little progress.

·         Trade expects USDA on Friday to cut its forecasts of U.S.   and world soybean ending stocks. The average analyst estimate for U.S. soy ending stocks was 120 million bushels, down from 125 million in February. 

·         USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.383 million tonnes (including 392,000 for 2012/13 and    990,600 for 2013/14), topping trade estimates for 900,000 to 1.25 million.

·         USDA reported weekly soymeal export sales at 119,300 tonnes, below trade estimates for 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes. USDA reported net cancellations of soyoil export sales totaling   19,700 tonnes, versus expectations for net sales of 5,000 to15,000 tonnes.

·         CBOT reported no deliveries against March soymeal, one  soybean delivery and 112 soyoil deliveries, with no strong stoppers.  




BMD CPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to a one-week high on Thursday, drawing support from expectations of a bullish industry report and a lower palm oil inventory level, although gains were curbed by investor caution.

Traders are looking ahead to Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report, which is expected to trim its outlook for soybean supplies, according to a Reuters poll.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board's report on the country's February inventory level due on Monday may also sway the market, with a Reuters survey of five plantation companies showing stocks may drop to a 6-month low on seasonal slowing output.

But investor caution remained after leading analysts presented differing price forecasts for the year at the biggest annual meeting on the edible oil, which ended on Wednesday.

"The palm market is still undecided on which direction to go yet. Now we're all looking at the soy side and the USDA data tomorrow," said a Singapore-based trader with a global commodities house.

"As you can see, the market is still under pressure as traders don't dare to put much hope into it yet," the trader added, referring to the slightly bullish USDA report.

The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 1.5 percent at 2,435 ringgit ($785) per tonne, slightly below its intraday high at 2,442 ringgit, a level unseen since Feb. 27.

Total traded volume stood at 28,800 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Price forecasts from six speakers at the Bursa Malaysia palm oil conference in the Malaysian capital ranged from 1,800 to 3,200 ringgit, with the main focus on top analysts James Fry and Dorab Mistry.

Mistry was neutral on near-term prices, saying prices should range between 2,300 and 2,500 ringgit until the end of April but might fall after that, while a more bullish Fry expected prices to climb to 2,625 ringgit by mid-year on biodiesel demand.

In other markets, Brent crude futures steadied around $111 per barrel on Thursday as traders eyed central bank meetings and economic data this week to get a better picture on the prospects for oil demand in the world's top consumers.

In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery gained 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was down 1 percent.


Regional Equities - BANGKOK, March 7 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly weaker to flat on Thursday in line with weaknesses in Asia, with the Philippines retreating from an all-time high and Indonesia posting modest gains after Bank Indonesia left rate unchanged as expected.

Investors cashed in large caps such as Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co (PLDT) which fell 1.7 percent. The stock rallied early in the week on strong quarterly results.

Citi Research downgraded PLDT shares to 'sell' from 'buy' and cut their price target to 2,700 peso.

"PLDT's share price has run up owing to a combination of domestic liquidity inflows and hope that competition improves. We now find valuations to be expensive and profit momentum is likely falling short of prior targets," the broker said in a report dated March 6.

PLDT shares closed at 2,942 peso on Thursday.

The Philippines closed down 1.6 percent at 6,725.13 after hitting a record close of 6,835.21 on Wednesday. Malaysia ended nearly unchanged at 1,650.93 after a nearly 1 percent gain over the past two sessions.

Malaysia is Asia's worst performer in 2013 with a year-to-date loss of 2.3 percent. Domestic investors were net sellers of the market this year amid cautious views ahead of a national election expected in the first half of 2013.

Foreign investors bought Malaysian shares on Thursday, their fifth consecutive session for the month, with a net buying of $68.28 million, taking their net buying to around $320 million month to date.

Singapore edged up 0.2 percent at 3,298.54 and Thailand was up 0.1 percent at 1,560.98, hovering around a 19-year high.

Indonesia  gained 0.5 percent to 4,848.30, marking a record close for a second straight session, led by a 2.1 percent gain in PT Bank Mandiri Persero Tbk

Indonesia's central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 5.75 percent, as expected, saying it expects price pressures to ease after inflation hit a 20-month high in February.