Monday, September 22, 2008

Trader's Comment: Strong rebound in NYMEX crude oil coupled with limit-up closed in rival soyoil at CBOT drove CPO futures to end generally higher.

Strong rebound in NYMEX crude oil coupled with limit-up closed in rival soyoil at CBOT drove CPO futures to end generally higher in an active trading session. Palm prices had been rebounding strongly tracking on good turn around in NYMEX crude oil prices. Last week it bounced from USD 90.42 a barrel to around USD 106 today. This had boosted the bull confidence and prompted aggressive short-covering as well as speculative buying. Technically, the market appears in bouncing mood after covered the gap between 2180 to 2240 last Friday. Now, targeting another gap between 2427-2451 which left over on 9/9/2008. Benchmark Dec 08 settled RM 85 higher at 2344 after trading between 2200 to 2367. Total daily volume remained good with 14,560 contracts changed hands.

FCPO Daily: eyeing upside gap


Market rebounded for three straight-days had neutralised the technical landscape. Looks may eye for the upside gap at 2427-2451 (gap left over on 8-9 Sept, 2008). Downside support is at 2138-2151.

FKLI Daily: closed in neagative territory


Market tested the intra-day high at 1039 but unable to sustain. Market may due to its consolidation phase and trade in range in near term. We look for the upside resistance at 1045-1050. Downside support is pegged at 1005-1000.

KLSE Daily: recovered from the day low


Market eased off after covered the full gap left over on 12-15 Sept, 2008 at 1037-1040. It then managed to recovered from the day low to end in positive territory. Looks market may continue its consolidation and correction mode in near term. We now look for the upside resistance at 1064-1068. For downside, support is pegged at 998-1001.

Breaking news-RTRS-China sees Sept soy import down 25pct vs Aug

BEIJING, Sept 22 (Reuters) - China's commerce ministry has revised up slightly its estimate of the country's soy imports for September to 2.86 million tonnes, which is still 25 percent lower than August's record 3.83 million tonnes as crushers reduced imports amid sluggish soyoil prices.

FCPO Hourly: due for consolidation


Market touch and go after hit the intra-day high at 2311 and gave up all its gains to end lower by midday break. Market may due for a consolidation in near term. We now look for the resistance at 2338-2368 (gap left over on 12-15 Sept, 2008). For downside, support is pegged at 2020.

FKLI Hourly: overhead resistance at 1045-1050


Market easing off after the opening bell and looks facing overhead resistance at 1045-1050. For downside, support is at physiological support 1000 mark.

KLSE Hourly: covered morning gap left over


Market hit the intra-day high at 1040 but unable to sustain and eased off to cover the morning gap left over at 1040-1026. Looks market will due for consolidation and correction in near term. We look for the immediate upside resistance at 1040-1042 (remaining gap left over on 12-15 Sept, 2008). For downside, support is at 1010-1000.

Breaking News-RTRS-Indonesia cuts Oct palm oil export tax to 7.5 pct

JAKARTA, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade ministry said on Monday it has cut its palm oil export tax for October to 7.5 percent, from 10 percent in September.
The ministry also lowered its base export prices for palm oil to $736 a tonne for October, from $902 a tonne a month earlier.

FCPO Weekly: rebound after hit fresh low at 2020


Market rebounded after hit the fresh low at 2020. Looks physiological support at 2000 mark was defended well. Market may due for a correction and consolidation after the recent sell down. We now look for the support at 2020. Upside resistance is at 2550-2600.

FKLI Weekly: rebound with good closing


Market rebounded strongly with good closing for the week. A long lower shadow candle printed was not enough to confirm a reversal. More buying support was needed to change the immediate technical landscape. We now looking for the support at 961. For upside, resistance is at 1045-1050.

KLSE Weekly: cover gap


Market rebounded with printed a long lower shadow candle. Nevertheless, market remained stuck in the bearish zone below the downtrend line. Thus, market may due for a consolidation and correction after the recent sharp drop. As for now, we look for the downside support at 963. For upside, immediate resistance is at 1037-1039 (gap left over) followed by 1064-1068.

DJI Weekly: bottom out?


Market reversed up from the fresh year low to end higher. More support confirmation is needed in order to change the current bearish atmosphere. Support and resistance is at 10459 and 11924-11939 level respectively.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Uncertainty about the workings of the government's $700 billion bank bailout drove U.S. stock index futures and bond futures lower Sunday evening as Asian markets got ready to start the week.

The dollar weakened against the yen on concerns that government borrowing will exacerbate the U.S. budget deficit as it needs to issue more debt to finance its rescue plan to buy bad mortgages from financial institutions.

Negotiations between Congress and U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson ratcheted up over the weekend after the administration and U.S. congressional leaders began swapping proposals.

On Friday the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 368.75 points, or 3.35 percent, at 11,388.44. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> advanced 48.57 points, or 4.03 percent, to 1,255.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> shot up 74.80 points, or 3.40 percent, to 2,273.90.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 6 percent higher on Friday, rising for the third day in a row, on hopes that a comprehensive U.S. government plan can help stabilize battered financial markets.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October crude settled up $6.67, or 6.81 percent, at $104.55 per barrel, trading from $97.39 to $105.25.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November up 27-1/2 cents at $11.43-1/2 per bushel, January up 29-1/2 at $11.59-1/4.

Rallying on rebound in stock market after U.S. government bailout of financial sector. Soy market seen as oversold and due for a bounce. Improved U.S. crop weather hangs over market.

SOYOIL
- October up 2.48 cents at 46.92 cents per lb.Following soybeans and crude oil higher.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures jumped 3.6 percent on Friday as crude oil prices went through the key $100-a-barrel level, traders said.

The benchmark December contract rose as much as 78 ringgit to 2,263 ringgit ($654) before settling at 2,259 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks leapt on Friday as investors turned positive on hopes of a long-term cure for global market turmoil, with financials such as Singapore's DBS and Bangkok Bank driving gains.

Indonesia <.JKSE> jumped 5.8 percent to its highest in a week. Malaysia <.KLSE> gained 3.4 percent but failed to recoup the week's losses, giving up about 2 percent this week. The Philippine index <.PSI> and Vietnam <.VNI> both swelled 4.7 percent, though Vietnam is still down over 52 percent since the year started.

Trader's Comment:Pre-weekend covering and technical play led CPO futures to end generally higher.

Pre-weekend covering and technical play led CPO futures to end generally higher. Technical players were buying and locking at the gap between 2180 to 2240 which left over on 16th Sept 08 to be filled. Sentiment also changed from neutral to supportive after yesterday's strong performance. Market just needed some correction since the slump in this week was a bit too sharp. It dived from early of the week high at 2341 to 2020 yesterday. Steady NYMEX crude oil prices trading in Asian time zone also provided some speculative buying element. Earlier, prices were trading in negative territory due to market talks that 1-20 Sept08 export will be lower by 8% down from same period in August08's figures at 904,645 tonnes (ITS). However, market was rather steady in the afternoon session trading steady crude oil also some commercial buying interest at the underlying cash market. Late aggressive covering activities push prices to cover technical gap and hit intra-day high at 2263 before it settled RM74 higher at 2259.