Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Trader's Comment: The “bull” finally got defeated as CPO prices posted its first loss after previous 4 days winning streak.

The “bull” finally got defeated as CPO prices posted its first loss after previous 4 days winning streak. Benchmark Jun09 surrendered its earlier gains amid profit taking activities. It initially bounced back from intra day low of 2440 and immediately broke above 2500 level on the back of 1-15 April export data released by private cargo surveyor ITS who reported an increase of 3.7%. However, prices began to ease off from its intra day high of 2540 in the second session after second private cargo surveyor SGS showed a lower than expected export figure when it stated a decrease of 1.56%. Benchmark Jun09 slid to 2442 before it finally ended RM26 lower at 2459. The pressure from profit taking activities had undermined the CPO market despite supportive external market. eCBOT soy oil had been inching higher today and Dalian palm traded close to limit up price.

Breaking News-RTRS-India's March veg oil imports up 27.5 pct y/y-trade

NEW DELHI, April 15 (Reuters) - India's vegetable oil imports in March rose 27.5 percent from a year earlier to 641,141 tonnes, a leading trade body said on Wednesday.
Imports in the oil year from November were at 3.6 million tonnes, up from from 2.3 million tonnes in the year-ago period, data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) showed.

Breaking News-RTRS-NOPA March soybean crush pegged at 137.7 mln bu

CHICAGO, April 13 (Reuters) - National Oilseed Processors Association monthly crush data to be issued Tuesday morning should show a March U.S. soybean crush near 137.7 million bushels, analysts said on Monday.
Trade estimates ranged from 137.0 million to 138.5 million bushels and compare with NOPA's February soy crush figure of 128.7 million.
Analysts expected NOPA to raise its soyoil stocks figure by 40 to 100 million lbs from its February stocks figure of 2.501 billion lbs.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World cuts Argentina's 2009 soy crop forecast

HAMBURG, April 14 (Reuters) - Argentina's 2009 soybean crop is likely to fall to about 40 million tonnes from 46.7 million tonnes in 2008 but the outlook in Brazil is improving, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday.
On April 7 Oil World had estimated Argentina's crop this year at 40-41 million tonnes.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as a surprising drop in retail sales dented hopes the recession was abating and financial shares slid on fears that Goldman Sachs' share offering could prompt others to follow suit.

"There is fear that other banks wanting to pay back government funds may want to raise cash by issuing shares," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Ohio-based Schaeffer's Investment Research.

The gloomy news on retail shows that "maybe the economy hasn't turned around as the last 5-week bounce suggested."

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> dropped 137.63 points, or 1.71 percent, to 7,920.18. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> fell 17.23 points, or 2.01 percent, to 841.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 27.59 points, or 1.67 percent, to 1,625.72.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell further in post-settlement trade on Tuesday, but stuck to the day's range, after industry data showed that crude inventories rose much higher than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange at 4:50 p.m. EDT (2050 GMT), May crude was down 89 cents, or 1.78 percent, at $49.16 a barrel. It had settled 64 cents, or 1.28 percent, lower at $48.41, trading from $48.85 to $51.12.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - May up 14-1/2 cents at $10.36 a bushel.

Rallies to three-month top. Market technically strong and supported by good Chinese demand for U.S. soy, which is seen drawing down American stocks to a five-year low.

Oil World cuts Argentina's 2009 soy crop forecast.

National Oilseed Processors Association reported U.S. March soy crush at 137.257 million bushels, slightly below average estimate for 137.7 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL - May up 0.89 cent at 36.95 cents per lb.

Supported by the strength in Asian vegoil markets. Strong soybean market also supportive.

NOPA said U.S. March soyoil stocks 2.593 billion lbs., above February 2.501 billion. Analysts expected stocks to increase by 40-100 million lbs.

FCPO-JAKARTA, April 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures jumped 6.4 precent to a new high in nearly eight months on Tuesday amid market talk that key data, due to be released tomorrow, will show strong exports in the first 15 days of April, traders said.

The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 150 ringgit to 2,485 ringgit ($693.17) per tonne, the highest closing level since September 4.

Other traded months rose between 65 and 179 ringgit, except for the March 2010 contract, which fell 20 ringgit. <0#KPO:>. Overall volume was heavy at 23,790 lots of 25 tonnes each, more than double the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index <.KLSE> gained 1.3
percent, and Singapore's benchmark Index <.FTSTI> rose 1.1 percent, helped by a 7 percent gain in property firm Capitaland .

Philippine shares <.PSI> edged down 0.3 percent, but Vietnam stocks <.VNI> gained 2.1 percent. Thai markets <.SETI> were closed for a holiday.

DJI Daily: Enter to consolidation phase


Market again failed to defend at 8000 mark. Thus, market may due for consolidation in near term. To the upside, immediate resistance remains at 8100-8200. Downside support is pegged at 7700.

KLSE Daily: Continue to gain ground


Sharp rise with a double digit gain had strengthened further the immediate technical landscape. As for now, we continue to look for the resistance at 960. Meanwhile, downside support is pegged at 936 followed by 925-922 (gap leftover on 10/4/2009).

FKLI Daily: Another fresh year high


Market surpass the resistance 960 and close at fresh year high. Overall technical landscape remains in bullish tone. We are now looking for the immediate upside resistance at 965-970. To the downside, support is maintain at 931-928 (gap left over on 10/4/2009).

FCPO Daily: Where is the TOP?


Bull was getting stronger after breaking through the resistance at 2400-2450 convincingly. Market looks is heading to challenge the upside resistance at 2500-2550. Bear in mind that a healthy correction may taking place anytime after the recent sharp rise in order to strengthen the upward momentum. Downside support is adjusted to 2300-2290.