Friday, December 12, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures fell sharply on record high stock data

CPO futures fell sharply on record high stock data. Benchmark Feb09 immediately slid lower through out the morning session after openedRM6 higher at 1650 that is also the intra day high. The release of key inventory data by Malaysian Palm Oil Board(MPOB), which reported a higher than initial estimated of stocks level had further undermined the CPO prices. MPOB put November08 end stocks at record of 2.26 million tones up 8.34% from October08. Benchmark Feb09 broke below 1600 level once afternoon session resumed trading and hit intra day low at 1567. It then hovered between 1570-1595 level before it finally settled RM63 lower at 1581. The spill over from the fall in regional equity market after US Congress failed to pass the deal to bail out automakers had also provide selling pressure to the already weak sentiment.

Breaking News-Senate Rejects Auto Industry Bailout After Talks Fail

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Senate rejected a $14 billion bailout plan for U.S. automakers, in effect ending congressional efforts to aid General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, which may run out of cash early next year.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday on dimming prospects for an automaker bailout, while bleak comments about the banking sector from JPMorgan's chief executive prompted investors to sell financial shares.

Most of the drop came late in the afternoon, but the day was governed by a steady stream of dismal corporate and economic news, including initial claims for unemployment benefits hitting a 26-year high. The pullback was another setback for those Wall Street pundits who argue that stocks hit their bottom late last month.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 196.33 points, or 2.24 percent, to 8,565.09. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> slid 25.65 points, or 2.85 percent, to 873.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> lost 57.60 points, or 3.68 percent, to 1,507.88.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended more than 10 percent higher on Thursday as the dollar weakened against the euro and traders factored in news that top oil exporter Saudi Arabia had pumped in line with its OPEC target last month.

A forecast from the International Energy Agency that world oil demand growth would resume in 2009 and expectations that OPEC will cut production further at its Dec. 17 meeting in Algeria also helped lift crude futures.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude settled up $4.46, or 10.25 percent, at $47.98 a barrel, trading $43.28 to $49.12, highest since Dec. 2 when prices hit $50.25.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January up 27 cents at $8.56-1/2 bushel. Boosted by higher crude and weak dollar with weather concerns in portions of South America also being eyed.

USDA said 2008/09 U.S. soy ending stocks at 205 million bushels, unchanged from its November forecast and near trade estimates.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December up 0.87 cent at 31.46 cents/lb. Following crude higher.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures gained as much as 3.9 percent on Thursday to hit a new one-week high as strength in crude oil markets and signs of strong Indian demand boosted prices.

Traders said expectations for bearish inventory data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) due on Friday was already priced in although others say stocks might go above 2.2 million tonnes.

The benchmark February palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange rose as much as 63 ringgit to 1,658 ringgit ($465) per tonne, a level last seen on Dec 1. The contract settled at 1,644 ringgit.

Other traded contracts rose between 31 ringgit and 70 ringgit. Overall volume climbed to 11,579 lots of 25 tonnes each from the usual 10,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets generally lost most of their early gains on Thursday amid a gloomy economic outlook.

Singapore's benchmark stock index <.FTSTI> closed down 1.5 percent, with United Overseas Bank , Singapore's second largest lender, sliding 2.5 percent.

In Kuala Lumpur, the main index <.KLSE> ended up 0.7 percent at a near two-week high, with advancers led by Sime Darby , which added 4.7 percent, and Bumiputra Commerce , which was 5.1 percent higher.

DJI Daily: remains sideways


DJI remains in consolidation phase. We continue to look for the resistance at 9266-9284. For downside, support maintains at 8118-8143.

FKLI Daily: building up base


Bear took a short term break after the sharp fall following prices holding well. As you can see from the daily chart, the low is getting higher and looks market may try to build up its base in order for a bear rebound in near term. As for now, we pegged the immediate support at 850-842. For upside, resistance is at 876.5-877.

KLSE Daily: steady


Market continue to hold ground and remains steady. Looks may want to challenge the upside gap left over at 869-876 (gap left over since 19/11/2008). For downside, support is pegged at 848-850.

FCPO Daily: eyeing 1700 mark


Market inching up slowly to get closer to 1700 mark. We now looking at the support at 1550-1580. For upside, immediate resistance is at 1666-1675 followed by 1692-1700.