Monday, September 28, 2009

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell for a third straight day on Friday on disappointing housing and durable goods data, while Research In Motion's lackluster results dented optimism about technology spending.

Economic reports showed that new orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell by their biggest margin in seven months, while August sales of new home fell short of Wall Street's expectations, raising questions about the strength of the recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell 42.25 points, or 0.44 percent, to 9,665.19. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> dropped 6.40 points, or 0.61 percent, to 1,044.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> declined 16.69 points, or 0.79 percent, to 2,090.92.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended with modest gains in seesaw trading on Friday, supported by fresh tensions over Iran's nuclear program while demand worries amid high stockpiles and a set of mixed economic data weighed on sentiment.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, November crude settled up 13 cents, or 0.2 percent, at $66.02 a barrel, trading a high of $67.09 down to $65.05, the lowest since July 31's intraday high of $64.96.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November up 6-1/2 cents at $9.26 a bushel. Rebounding from this week's sell-off largely linked to corn/soy spreading most of the week as spreads adjusted. Supported by strong cash markets as processors sharply hike spot bids to replenish crush supplies. Sell-off in wheat brought soybeans off early highs.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- October down 0.05 cent at 34.04 cents a lb. Market closes lower amid pressure from gyrations in crude oil market.

FCPO-MUMBAI, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) futures in Malaysia may fall 13 percent to 1,900 ringgit per tonne but prices will rise next year as the El Nino weather event hits output, a top industry analyst told a conference on Sunday.

Prices were likely to rise to 2,400 ringgit per tonne next year, said Dorab Mistry, head of vegetable oil purchasing at India's Godrej International and a respected analyst.

On Friday, benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivative Exchange settled at 2,186 Malaysian ringgit ($630), up 71 ringgit, halting two straight days of declines, and moving above the 200-day moving average of 2,141 ringgit.

Mistry said palm oil inventories in Malaysia would rise to more than 2 million tonnes by the end of November. "The situation reminds me of last year when Malaysian stocks peaked at 2.265 million tonnes at the end of November," he said.

Mistry maintained his forecasts for Indonesia's 2009 palm oil output at 21.5 million tonnes from about 20 million tonnes last year and Malaysian production at 17.5 million tonnes in 2009, compared with 17.75 million tonnes last year.

REGIONAL EQUITIES
-BANGKOK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Friday on fears that authorities around the world might end stimulus efforts too soon, and big caps such as Bumi Resources and Astra International dropped.

World central banks have said they would scale back infusions of dollars into their banking systems, adding to unease triggered when the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would slow purchases of mortgage debt, a pillar of its efforts to support mortgage lending.

Singapore's Straits Times Index <.FTSTI> slid 0.2 percent, after a 0.7 percent decline on Thursday, while Thailand <.SETI> inched down 0.96 percent and Malaysia <.KLSE> 0.06 percent. The Philippines <.PSI> lost 0.6 percent but Vietnam <.VNI> added 1.4 percent.

In Singapore, top losers were casino operator Genting Singapore , down 3.5 percent, Wilmar International , down 3.4 percent, and Singapore Telecom , 0.6 percent lower.

In Kuala Lumpur, financials led the losers, with CIMB down 0.7 percent, Maybank Bhd down 0.2 percent and AMMB Holdings Bhd off 0.2 percent.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses on pre-weekend covering.

Palm oil futures recovered from yesterday’s losses on pre-weekend covering. Benchmark Dec09 initially hit intra day low of 2106 after opened RM6 lower at 2109 but then started to climb steadily through out most of the sessions. The last wave of aggressive short-covering activities emerged in late trading led CPO prices to shoot up to intra day high of 2187 before it settled RM71 higher at 2186. Market was actually in a technical rebound mode today as it had been temporary oversold in yesterday sold-down. Trading volume was low with only 12,190 contracts changed hands as traders waiting for fresh leads from the Global Vege Oil Conference held this weekend at India. Meanwhile, Dalian market will be off next week for China’s Holiday.

FCPO Weekly: 2000 mark defended well


Market continue to defend at 2000 mark and rebounded for a good closing. However, weekly technical landscape remains in weak mode. As for now, immediate downside support is looking at 2060-2000 followed by 1980-1960. To the upside, resistance is pegged at 2250-2300 followed by 2330-2350.

CBOT Soyoil Weekly: still in Consolidation phase


Correction mode is still taking place. Therefore, we maintain the downside support at USD33.23 followed by 32.25-32.14. To the upside, resistance is pegged at USD37-37.50

NYMEX Crude Weekly: Sideways to lower


Market violated the immediate support at USD65 had dampened the overall technical landscape. Market momentum was weaken further and looks may move sideways to bias downside potential in near term. As for now, we are looking for the upside resistance at USD73-75. While, downside support is adjusted to USD62.70-58.30.

DJI Weekly Inching up slowly


Market is inching up slowly despite shy away after tested 9,900 levels. Immediate technical outlook looks positive. Thus, we maintain our upside target at 10,000 levels. To the downside, support is maintain at 9600-9400 levels.

SSE Weekly: Capped in range trading


Market looks may continue to cap in range trading bias sideways to lower in near term market. Immediate support is maintain at 2761 followed by 2640. To the upside, resistance is pegged at 3070 followed by 3170-3190.

FKLI Weekly: Bulls run likely to continue


We stick to our bullish view towards the near term market as no sign of tiredness was shown after the recent bulls run. Thus, we maintain the upside resistance at 1230-1240 followed by 1270-1280. Downside support is pegged at 1200 followed by 1190-1180.