Monday, September 7, 2009

Breaking News-RTRS-U.S. Nov soy unlikely to drop below $9 a bushel-Mielke

CEBU, Philippines, Sept 7 (Reuters) - New-crop U.S. soybean futures are unlikely to fall below $9 a bushel on tight global supplies, while Malaysian palm oil prices are likely to be supported by lower production resulting from dry weather, leading analyst Thomas Mielke said on Monday.
"November soy is not going to fall below $9 due to a further decline in soybean reserves from September to February," said Mielke, chief executive of German oilseeds analysts Oil World.
"Despite the record U.S. soybean crop the world supplies of soybeans and of all oilseed will continue to decline in the first half of this season (beginning September) because of the low stocks at the beginning of September."

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Global equities surged and U.S. oil eked out a gain on Friday on news that U.S. job losses last month were the smallest in a year.

The U.S. jobless rate climbed to 9.7 percent last month, the highest since June 1983. The increase suggests consumer spending will remain weak and impede the U.S. economy's recovery from the worst recession in seven decades.

However, employers cut 216,000 jobs, the smallest losses since August 2008, even as payroll losses in June and July were 49,000 more than initially estimated.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 96.66 points, or 1.03 percent, at 9,441.27. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 13.16 points, or 1.31 percent, at 1,016.40. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 35.58 points, or 1.79 percent, at 2,018.78.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended slightly higher on Friday, in a cautious response to economic data which showed that while unemployment soared to a 26-year high in August, there were fewer jobs lost than expected in the
month.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, October crude settled up 6 cents, or 0.09 percent, at $68.02 a barrel, trading from $67.12 to $68.78.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - September down 21 cents at $9.61 a bushel; November down 19-1/2 at $9.22.

Slides to fresh five-month low as spot basis market plunges as processors, exporters wait for freshly harvested soybeans. U.S. harvest expected to be a record, with no crop-killing frost forecast in near term.

CBOT-SOYOIL - September down 0.43 cent at 33.65 cents per lb. Falls along with soybeans.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures dropped nearly 1 percent on Friday to hit a fresh five-week low as investors unwound more positions from a market that has fallen all week.

The benchmark November contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derirvative Exchange settled down 21 ringgit at 2,197 ringgit ($623.2) a tonne, a level unseen since July 31.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets edged higher on Friday, helped by Wall Street's gain overnight, with Thai stocks <.SETI> hitting a one-year high, helped by buying of telecommunication and construction shares.

Singapore's benchmark stock index <.FTSTI> rose for a second day, up 0.94 percent, Malaysia's market <.KLSE> edged up 0.43 percent, having hit a near three-week high earlier, but Indonesia's main stock index <.JKSE> ended flat.

The Philippine index <.PSI> closed up nearly 1.0 percent, recovering from Thursday's drop to a near two-week low, helped by news inflation hit a 22-year low, supporting views that interest rates would remain unchanged until the end of this year.

Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures ended lower on late liquidation after the earlier supportive trading.

Palm oil futures ended lower on late liquidation after the earlier supportive trading. Benchmark Nov09 immediately fell to the morning low of 2204 after opened unchanged at 2218. Initially it was well supported as it bounced back and climbed slowly through out most of the sessions until it hit intra day high of 2236 in late second sessions. However, the emerged of intra day liquidation and some technical selling in late trading saw prices slammed down to break below 2200 level and settled RM21 lower at intraday low of 2197. Market sentiment was still weak today as traders cautiously awaiting for the upcoming export data and MPOB supply & demand date which is due to release on next Thursday.

FCPO Weekly: Searching for a landing base


Violation of the physiological support at 2200 levels coupled with prices closed at the weekly low had weaken the immediate weekly outlook. Market is still searching for a landing base. Thus, market is likely to move sideways to bias downside potential in near term. For now, immediate downside support is looking at 2150 followed by 2085. To the upside, resistance is pegged at 2335-2360.

CBOT Soyoil Weekly: Still more room to bias downside potential


A weak closing had dampened further the overall technical outlook and provided more room to bias downside potential in near term. As for now, we are looking for the downside support at USD33.23 followed by 32.25-32.14. To the upside, resistance is pegged at USD37-37.50

NYMEX Crude Weekly: Likely to consolidate


Market is likely to consolidate in near term. Violation of either USD75 or USD65.23 may provide more clearer direction.

SSE Weekly: Remains in bearish mode


Immediate weekly technical outlook remains in bearish mode despite prices recovered and rebounded to close near the weekly high. Thus, we maintain bearish view towards the near term market. We maintain the downside support at 2580-2530 followed by 2400-2370. To the upside, resistance is adjusted to 3004 followed by 3020-3039 (gap left over on since 23/8/2009).

FKLI Weekly: Holding steady in sideways manner


Consolidation phase is still taking place as prices were holding steady in sideways manner. Currently, we maintain the upside resistance at 1189.5 followed by 1200. Downside support is pegged at 1149.