Thursday, August 30, 2012

UPDATE 2-Thai mills pick up soymeal as Asian buyers return - RTRS

PHUKET, Thailand, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Thai feed mills have bought up to 1 million tonnes of soymeal in recent deals, while Vietnam is in the market to cover some 200,000 tonnes, traders said, as Asian buyers resume purchases after staying away for more than two months.

Asian feed grain importers have not been active in the market since June as benchmark Chicago corn and soybean futures started climbing, fired up by a devastating drought that has scorched crops across the U.S. grain belt.

India has signed its first new-crop soymeal deal with a sale of 25,000 tonnes to Europe, three traders told Reuters on the sidelines of a regional grains conference in Phuket.

While Thai mills paid $30 to $50 a tonne premium over Chicago Board of Trade futures for South American cargoes, Indian soymeal was sold at $610 a tonne, free alongside ship.

"Initially some big players started buying soymeal in private tenders which triggered purchases by smaller mills as they didn’t want to be left behind," said one of the traders who works at an international trading company.

"The demand seems to be picking up and we expect more deals in the coming weeks."

Taiwan bought 180,000 tonnes of U.S. and South American soybeans after purchasing a similar volume last week, traders said. The Philippines booked more than 300,000 tonnes of soymeal from the United States last week, the added.

Most Thai deals have been signed in the last two weeks.

Asian buyers are likely to sign more deals with monsoon rains improving the outlook for India's soybean crop and forecasts of a record-large output in Brazil next year as all-time high prices encourage farmers to plant more.

"It is a good time to lock in some supplies now as everyone is estimating good production in India and a record-high output in Brazil," said another trader. "Any problem with these crops will add fuel to the rally."

U.S. corn futures CZ2 have climbed 52 percent since the beginning of June, while soybeans SX2 have jumped nearly 36 percent as the worst drought in 56 years curbs yields in the United States, the world's top exporter.

Wheat Wc1 has surged about 33 percent with a Black Sea drought and poor rains in Australia adding to supply woes.

VIETNAM, INDONESIA TO SEEK SOYMEAL

Vietnam is expected to book some 200,000 tonnes of soymeal for November and December arrival, while Indonesia is open for around 100,000 tonnes for the fourth quarter shipment.

"We expect Vietnam to buy Indian cargoes but it all depends on the prices," the third trader said. "Indian prices have started moving higher since the deal to ship soymeal to Europe and if it keeps going up, the demand will shift to South America," the trader said on the sidelines of the conference.

The 9th Southeast Asia-U.S. Agricultural Cooperators Conference -- organised by lobby groups the American Soybean Association International Marketing, the U.S. Grains Council and the U.S. Wheat Associates -- brings together U.S. exporters and Asian buyers.

Indian soymeal prices have risen to around $645 a tonne, free on board, compared with $690 a tonne, including cost and freight, being offered for South American cargoes.

This summer's historic drought has inflicted more damage to corn and soybean crops around the U.S. Midwest than the government is predicting, the Pro Farmer newsletter said last week after a tour of the grain belt.

It estimated U.S. corn production at 10.478 billion bushels, based on a yield of 120.25 bushels per acre. That compares with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) latest forecast of a 10.779 billion bushel crop on a yield of 123.4 bushels per acre.

Soybean production was seen at 2.60 billion bushels on a yield of 34.8 bushels per acre. Earlier this month, the USDA pegged the soybean harvest at 2.692 billion bushels and yield at 36.1 bushels per acre.

UPDATE 1-Isaac's downpours threaten US rice, soybeans - RTRS

CHICAGO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Torrential rain from Hurricane Isaac, 20 inches or more in some areas, threaten the soybean and rice crops in the Deep South, an agricultural meteorologist said on Wednesday.

"Soybeans are vulnerable and rice may be the most vulnerable to damage," said Andy Karst, meteorologist for World Weather Inc.

The lumbering Category 1 hurricane was lashing the Gulf Coast with wind and rain, threatening to flood towns in Mississippi and Louisiana. There were storm surges of up to 12 feet (3.7 metres) and sustained winds up to 75 miles per hour (120 kilometres per hour).

The storm's rain is currently moving across the lush crop region of the U.S. Deep South, known as the Delta, but is forecast to reach crops in the central Midwest later this week and weekend.

A large amount soybeans, cotton, and rice are grown in the south, while in corn and soybeans are more common in the Midwest.

The Louisiana soybean harvest was 18 percent complete, Mississippi's 9 percent and Arkansas' 8 percent, USDA crop reports said on Monday.

All three states are receiving extremely heavy rain from the slow moving storm, which is forecast to become a tropical depression as it moves northward into the weekend.

Many cash soybean buyers in the south and in parts of the Midwest raised bids due to the slowed harvest and the potential loss of production.

Most of America's rice is produced where the eye of the hurricane is passing.

U.S. rice was 27 percent harvested as of Monday and most of the remainder had headed meaning it was nearly ready for harvest and susceptible to damage from flooding.

Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather, told the Reuters Ag Forum early on Wednesday that he expected rice paddies in Louisiana to be damaged.

Keeney also expected substantial harvest delays in the Delta over the next three days and in the Midwest by the weekend.

"Just about all of the Delta will be affected from the storm but the biggest rains will cover Arkansas, Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi, covering about 75 percent of the Delta," Keeney said.

"The main issue in the Midwest will be the heavy rains."

Lighter rainfall, from 0.25 inch to 1.00 inch, can be expected by the weekend into early next week in far northern areas of the U.S. Midwest, meteorologists said.

U.S. harvests had already been slowed by showers this past week and rain from Hurricane Isaac should prevent any significant progress this week, especially in the central Midwest and Deep South.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday that 6 percent of the U.S. corn crop had been harvested. It said 26 percent of it was mature, with most of that in the U.S. South and in the path of Isaac's torrential rainfall.

The USDA said 8 percent of the soybean crop was dropping leaves, or mature, and rice harvest was 27 percent complete. On the cotton, 24 percent of the crop's bolls were open and ready for harvest.

RTRS- Indonesia sets crude palm export tax at 13.5 pct for Sept

JAKARTA, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Indonesia, the world's top palm oil producer, will cut its export tax for crude palm oil to 13.5 percent for September, down from 15 percent in August and keep its tax on cocoa beans at 5 percent for September, a trade ministry official said on Wednesday.

The government will also lower the export tax for RBD palm olein to 6 percent in September, versus 7 percent in August.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged higher on Wednesday in the lightest trading of the year as investors waited for a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday.

Daily volume this week has been very low, even for a seasonally slow period, with the market recording three of the four lowest volume full sessions of 2012. The low volume reflected investors' reluctance to place big bets before Bernanke's speech.

What little excitement there was came from data showing pending home sales rose 2.4 percent in July, a bigger gain than expected, according to the National Association of Realtors. (Full Story) An index of housing shares .HGX was up 0.5 percent.

"We're seeing consistently good numbers out of the housing market. It's hard to get too negative on the U.S. economy with the housing market doing better than expected," said Paul Zemsky, chief investment officer of Multi-Asset Strategies at ING Investment Management in New York.

"I think the U.S. is doing pretty well today, given what the rest of the world has done," he said. The Shanghai Composite index .SSEC hit its lowest close since February 2009, while the S&P 500 is trading near a four-year high.

Bernanke addresses a conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and could announce new measures to boost growth. He is expected to stoke expectations for a third round of quantitative easing, though he may not detail the timing of the Fed's action. (Full Story)

Volume traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex, was 4.41 billion shares compared with the previous low on Monday of 4.46 billion. The year-to-date average is about 6.6 billion.

Shares of customer reviews website Yelp Inc YELP.N jumped 22.5 percent to $22.37 in a bit of a surprise for investors as it was the day insiders were free to sell their holdings. (Full Story)

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI inched up 4.49 points, or 0.03 percent, to 13,107.48. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX rose 1.19 points, or 0.08 percent, to 1,410.49. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 4.04 points, or 0.13 percent, to 3,081.19.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Wednesday on expectations that damage from Hurricane Isaac to Gulf of Mexico oil production will be limited and in reaction to data showing that crude oil stocks rose sharply last week in the United States.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose 3.78 million barrels to 364.52 million in the week to Aug. 24, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, against expectations stocks would fall 1.5 million barrels.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Aug 29 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1.8 percent on Wednesday, their biggest rise in a week, on concerns about rain from Hurricane Isaac slowing the soy harvest in the U.S. Mississippi River Delta region, traders said.

• Technical buying and spillover strength from a 3 percent surge in CBOT wheat lent support.

• Torrential rains from Hurricane Isaac, with accumulations of 20 inches or more in some areas, threaten the soybean and rice crops in the Deep South, an agricultural meteorologist said.
• Thai feed mills have bought up to 1 million tonnes of soymeal in recent deals, while Vietnam is in the market to cover some 200,000 tonnes, traders said, as Asian buyers resume purchases after staying away for more than two months.

• A record-setting rally in grains is unlikely to dent demand from Southeast Asia with strong growth in Indonesia, the region’s biggest economy, and rising poultry exports from Thailand driving consumption, a U.S. soybean industry official said.

• Soybeans rose despite weaker cash basis bids for soybeans at the U.S. Gulf. The CIF soy basis was steady to weak on limited spot demand and as shippers shut down operations as Isaac made landfall near New Orleans.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slipped to the lowest in nearly a fortnight, as traders booked profits with market focus shifting to rising stocks level in the world's second-largest producer.

Palm oil posted two straight weeks of gains as the worst drought in 56 years ravaged soybean crops in the U.S. Midwest, limiting soybean oil supply and raising demand prospects of the cheaper palm oil.

But prices have retreated by more than 2 percent this week, as market players eyed a build-up in Malaysian palm oil stocks on higher production in August.

"At the moment we still see prices heading towards no-man's land, although my view is that it's more on the bearish side rather than a bullish front," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"Stocks are going to rise but the level I'm looking at is around 2.1-2.15 million tonnes."

At closing, the benchmark November 2012 contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell nearly 1 percent to 3,000 ringgit ($961) per tonne. Prices earlier hit 2,978 ringgit, the lowest level since Aug. 17.

Total traded volume stood at 40,158 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Shares in Thailand and Indonesia fell to three-week lows on Wednesday amid a broad sell-off in large cap stocks while Singapore and Malaysia ended nearly flat as investors cut back on risk ahead of a speech by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman.

The main Thai index .SETI close down 1.05 percent at 1,220.16, the lowest close since Aug. 10. Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE slipped 1.2 percent to 4,093.17, the lowest close since Aug. 8.

Bucking the trend, Vietnamese shares snapped a two-day losing streak after Standard & Poor's said the problem at a Vietnamese bank was not contagious.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index .VNI gained 1.9 percent, regaining some of the 3.5 percent loss of the previous two sessions. It suffered 7.9 percent drop last week as the arrests of Asia Commercial Bank's ACB.HN top executives worried investors of spreading banking risks.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

RTRS- US farmers to trim corn plantings next year - Farm Futures

CHICAGO, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers plan to cut their corn plantings in 2013 to 93.06 million acres and boost their soybean seedings, according to a survey by Farm Futures Magazine.

The survey of around 1,800 farmers pegged next year's soybean plantings at 78.05 million acres.

"Ironically, this shift from corn to soybeans mirrors a similar shift taking place in South America as well, casting doubts on the world’s ability to rebuild tight global feed grain stocks without a significant shift in global weather patterns to boost yields in 2013,” Farm Futures market analyst Arlan Suderman said in a statement.

U.S. wheat acreage was forecast at 57.05 million, largely due to expectations for increased seedings of soft red winter wheat in the eastern Midwest and South.

"These results tell us that growers would like to get their rotations back in balance after pushing corn in recent years," said Bryce Knorr, senior editor at Farm Futures.

Expenses for next year's crop do not look like they will increase much, Knorr added.

U.S. farmers planted 96.4 million acres of corn in 2012, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department. Expectations of a huge crop followed an early planting, which allowed growers to seed the biggest corn acreage since 1937, but a drought ravaged the crop throughout the summer and cut back harvest expectations.

USDA reported soybean plantings at 76.1 million acres and wheat plantings at 56 million acres this year.

RTRS- China faces soybean import squeeze -Oil World

HAMBURG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - China will have to cut its giant soybean imports in coming months because of tighter supplies after drought reduced crops in the United States and South America, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“For Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013 we estimate that Chinese soybean imports will have to be reduced by 4 to 5 million tonnes from the 27.5 million tonnes imported in the same six months of a year earlier,” Oil World said.

U.S. corn and soybean prices hit record highs this summer as scorching temperatures and a relentless drought ravaged crops in the United States, while drought also caused large drops in Argentine and Brazilian soybean harvests. GRA/

China accounted for 61 percent of global soybean imports in the first half of 2012, Oil World said.

The Chinese government is likely to increase sales of state soybean reserves to compensate for lower imports, Oil World said.

“In addition, China is likely to raise imports of Canadian canola (rapeseed) above its year-ago level in the next six months,” it said.

It added: “The prospective steep decline in soybean imports will result in a massive reduction of total Chinese soybean stocks below last year’s level as of end-February 2013, enforcing considerably higher imports in the second half of the 2012/13 season.”

This means the big South American crops looming in early 2013 will face major pent-up demand from China, it said.

Oil World forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop in early 2013 will rise to 82.0 million tonnes from 66.40 million tonnes in early 2012.

Argentina’s 2013 crop is likely to rise to 56.0 million tonnes from 40.50 million tonnes, it said.

RTRS- Surge in soybean prices not yet over -Oil World

HAMBURG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Global soybean prices have still not exhausted their upward potential following new highs because supply shortages mean demand will be squeezed in coming months, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

U.S. soybeans hit new contract highs this week after key tour of experts in the Pro Farmer team concluded the drought damage to the U.S. soybean crop is worse than U.S. government forecasts. GRA/

“They (soybeans) have further upward potential in the near to medium term on bullish fundamentals,” Oil World said. “Futures prices are vulnerable to temporary setbacks on profit-taking. But these setbacks are likely to be limited, particularly as long as demand has not been sufficiently rationed.”

U.S. soybean and corn futures hit record highs this summer as scorching temperatures and drought ravaged crops in the U.S., while drought also cut soybean harvests in giant exporters Brazil and Argentina.

“The global supply tightness of soybeans is unprecedented and will result in a decline in world exports by approximately 8-9 million tonnes in Sept. 2012/Feb. 2013 as well as in unusually small world stocks of soybeans in early 2013,” Oil World said.

“However, relief will come from a bumper South American soybean crop which under favourable weather conditions could be boosted to 152 million tonnes in early 2013 from the drought-reduced 116 million tonnes in early 2012.”

But in the meantime, supplies are shrinking.

Soybean stocks in Brazil, usually the second largest exporter after the United States, are forecast by Oil World to fall to 15.59 million tonnes on Sept. 1 from 26.15 million tonnes on Sept. 1, 2011.

Sept. 1 soybean stocks in the second largest exporter Argentina will fall to 18.50 million tonnes from 26.10 million tonnes this time last year, it estimates.

Demand will have to adjust in the time before the new South American harvests arrive in early 2013, Oil World said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended little changed in another day of scarce activity on Tuesday after mixed economic data gave investors little reason to shift their focus from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech on Friday.

The Fed chief is scheduled to address a conference of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and could announce new measures to boost growth. While Bernanke is expected to keep alive expectations for a third round of major bond buying by the Fed, or quantitative easing, he could keep markets guessing about the actual timing.

Volume was among the lightest of the year after Monday's lightest trading in 2012. August is a slow season, and investors mostly stayed on the sidelines, anticipating Bernanke's speech.

"I don't think you can read a lot from what's going on in the market right now," said John Fox, co-manager of the FAM Value Fund, in Cobleskill, New York. "Because there's nothing going on, everyone is waiting for the speech on Friday."

The latest sign of slowing in the global economy added to expectations for more central bank stimulus. Japan cut its assessment of economic growth, citing a deceleration in U.S. and Chinese demand for Japanese exports.

U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in August to its lowest in nine months as Americans turned more pessimistic about the short-term outlook, according to the Conference Board.

But in another report, the S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas showed U.S. home prices rose for a fifth consecutive month, a sign of slow improvement in the housing sector. (Full Story)

Among the day's biggest gainers, Lexmark International Inc LXK.N jumped 13.7 percent to $21.62 after it said it would stop making inkjet printers, cut about 1,700 jobs, and focus on its more profitable imaging and software businesses.

The NYSEArca computer hardware index .HWI rose 1.2 percent. Shares of Hewlett Packard HPQ.N, which has a substantial portion of inkjet sales, were down 1.8 percent at $16.90.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 21.68 points, or 0.17 percent, at 13,102.99. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX slipped 1.14 points, or 0.08 percent, at 1,409.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC edged down 3.95 points, or 0.13 percent, at 3,077.14.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Tuesday as Hurricane Isaac approached the U.S. Gulf Coast, forcing companies in the region to close down oil production platforms and refineries.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- Aug 28 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on Tuesday, erasing early losses on news of fresh sales of U.S. soybeans to China and expectations of continued export demand, traders said.

• Soybean futures turned lower at times on long liquidation and profit-taking after Monday's contract highs.

• CBOT soymeal futures followed soybeans higher on concerns about U.S. and global supplies of the high-protein animal feed, while soyoil fell for a second day.

• USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in 2012/13. (Full Story)

• Global soybean prices have still not exhausted their upward potential following new highs because supply shortages mean demand will be squeezed in coming months - analysts Oil World. (Full Story)

• China will have to cut its giant soybean imports in coming months because of tighter supplies after drought reduced crops in the United States and South America - Oil World. (Full Story)

• Torrential rain and flooding from Hurricane Isaac will bring relief to a large chunk of drought-stricken cropland but will stall early harvest of corn, soybeans and rice - meteorologist. (Full Story) (Full Story)

• A Farm Futures Magazine survey indicated U.S. farmers would plant less corn and more soybeans in 2013. The survey projected 2013 soybean plantings at 78.05 million acres, up from 76.1 million in 2012. (Full Story)

• USDA late Monday said 8 percent of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves, a sign of maturity, ahead of the five-year average of 4 percent.
 
FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slid on Tuesday as investors took profit after the market hit a six-week high the previous session, with traders watching for a big stocks build-up to weigh on prices.

Palm oil, which has lost more than 4 percent this year, is moving in tandem with the U.S. soy complex, where investors have unwound bullspreads after the market recently hit a record as the worst drought in 56 years ravaged crops.

A smaller supply of soybeans to be crushed into edible oil and strong palm oil production in coming months has widened palm's discount to soyoil to more than $250 per tonne.

But palm oil stocks in Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer, are set to rise to more than 2.3 million tonnes, traders said, as production outpaces export growth in the second half of the year.

"I sold off this morning. Palm oil is surviving on borrowed strength of soyoil markets," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage.

The benchmark November 2012 contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 2.1 percent to 3,029 ringgit ($970). The previous day, the contract hit 3,122 ringgit, a level last seen on July 17.

Total traded volume stood at 22,029 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell slightly in a lacklustre session on Tuesday as investors trimmed positions in risky assets amid worries about global growth, with Vietnam coming off the day's low as beaten-down bank stocks rebounded after recent sell offs.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index .VNI eased 0.11 percent, falling 1.7 percent at one point, as concerns over banking risks appeared subdued. Military Bank MBB.HM, which was among the actively traded, gained 1.5 percent after a 10.2 percent drop since last Monday.

Vietnamese shares lost a net 12.24 percent over the past six sessions following the arrests of Asia Commercial Bank's ACB.HN top executives that have kept retail investors bearish.

The Philippines .PSI edged up 0.63 percent, reopening after a market holiday. Indonesia .JKSE was down 0.07 percent. Jakarta resumed trading after being halted by technical problems on Monday.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

RTRS- Refiners to pay less for palm in Malaysia's top producing state -paper

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Refiners in Malaysia's top oil palm growing state of Sabah will pay millers less for edible oil from next month to preserve margins and better compete with Indonesia, the Business Times reported on Monday, in a move likely to hit planters' revenues.

The daily newspaper cited IJM Plantations IJMP.KL CEO Joseph Tek as saying that refiners in the Borneo island state want to more than double the discount on a tonne of crude palm oil to 80-100 ringgit from 40 ringgit ($12.90).

The move is a reaction to top producer Indonesia slashing export taxes on processed palm last year to jump start its refining industry, allowing Malaysia's long-time competitor to offer cheaper shipments and grab market share.

"This higher discount is being introduced by the refiners and will mean millers get lower sales proceeds. It will eventually cascade through to planters as well," Tek was quoted as saying.

"In a way, if this continues, it will affect IJM Plantations as well. We will make 40 ringgit to 60 ringgit less per tonne of crude palm oil that we produce from September onwards," Tek said.

The current discount puts crude palm oil selling prices at 2,970 Ringgit. With the new discount, prices would stand at about 2,930 ringgit per tonne.

The discount system is unique to Sabah. It was imposed in the early days of Malaysia's oil palm expansion in the 1970s and 1980s when the state did not have any refineries and had to ship palm oil to mainland Malaysia for processing.

But the system persisted even as refiners sprang up on Sabah, with millers continuing to have no choice but to accept the "forced discount".

Tek could not be immediately reached for comment but other Sabah millers confirmed that refiners will pay less for crude palm oil starting in September.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Shares of Apple climbed to another record on Monday, keeping the Nasdaq index afloat in the lowest trading volume of the year, with investors looking ahead to a key speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday.


Apple Inc AAPL.O hit an all-time high of $680.87 during the day after the iPad maker won a $1 billion judgment in a patent lawsuit against Samsung Electronics 005930.KS. The Korean company said it would contest the verdict. Apple, the world's most valuable company, ended up 1.9 percent at $676.68. (Full Story)

The verdict on Friday jolted shares of Google Inc GOOG.O, as the case could change the dynamics of the mobile device market. Companies using Google's Android system may have to consider design changes. Google shares declined 1.4 percent to $669.22.

Beyond the notable moves of those tech giants, investors mostly cooled their heels before Bernanke's remarks to central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.

Data showed volume was 4.46 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex. The year-to-date average is about 6.6 billion.

Expectations are for Fed action of some kind next month, but Bernanke is likely to keep markets guessing about the timing of another round of bond purchases.

"The big upswing in the equity market that we've seen is based on the belief the Fed is going to do something and that Bernanke is going to say sooner rather than later that he's willing to commit to further easing," said Subodh Kumar, chief investment strategist at Subodh Kumar & Associates in Toronto.

"But I don't think he's got the policy support within the Fed to do that, so the markets are set for some more correction here."

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 33.30 points, or 0.25 percent, at 13,124.67. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 0.69 points, or 0.05 percent, at 1,410.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 3.40 points, or 0.11 percent, at 3,073.19.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Monday, retreating after rising more than $1 as Tropical Storm Isaac shuttered Gulf Coast refineries, curbing crude oil demand, and with expectations that western governments might tap oil reserves also pressuring crude prices.  

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 0.7 percent on profit-taking from contract highs, and ideas that weekend showers in the U.S. Midwest and forecasts for more this week could help late-seeded crops, traders said.
* Weakening cash basis bids at soy processors in the interior Midwest, especially Iowa, added pressure. GRA/M

• The front eight soybean contracts set contract highs, as did most soybean contracts except spot September, before turning lower.

• Tropical Storm Isaac was due to hit the U.S. Gulf Coast between Florida and Louisiana Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Cargill Inc and Archer Daniels Midland Co shut down some of their export elevators in Louisiana as a precaution.

• Barge traffic between Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and the U.S. Gulf was suspended due to the threat from Isaac, the Crescent River Port Pilots Association said. (Full Story)

• Argentine growers are set to plant corn and soy under ideal conditions over the next two months thanks to record August rainfall.

• Forward sales of Brazilian soybeans rose to 43 percent of expected 2012/13 output, up from 42 percent the previous week and up from 14 percent a year ago, analyst Celeres said.
• USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 17.407 million bushels, below trade estimates for 20 million to 24 million, traders said.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures rose to a 6-week high on Monday, as traders continued to bet on tight global edible oil supplies with no sign of the drought easing in the soy-producing U.S. Midwest.

U.S. new-crop soybeans hit a contract high on Monday after farm newsletter Pro Farmer estimated U.S. soybean production would be worse than forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. GRA/

A smaller supply of soybeans to be crushed into soybean oil had widened palm oil's discount to soybean oil to above $250 per tonne, shifting more demand to the cheaper tropical oil.

"There's a lot more upside for crude palm oil prices because so far palm oil has been lagging behind soybean oil," said James Ratnam, an analyst with TA Securities in Malaysia.

"The second thing is that there could be new stimulus measures coming out from China and the U.S. that could boost sentiment."

The benchmark November 2012 contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.7 percent to close at 3,091 ringgit ($994) per tonne after touching an intraday high at 3,122 ringgit, a level last seen since July 17.

Total traded volumes stood at 25,999 lots of 25 tonnes each, just slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Shares in Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand edged lower after a rangebound session and light trade on Monday, wary of global economic outlook, while lingering concerns over risks in the banking system further depressed Vietnamese stocks.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index .VNI dropped 3.4 percent to 386.19 points, the lowest close since Jan. 30, led down by financial stocks. It lost 7.8 percent last week but was still up 9.9 percent this year.

The arrest of Asia Commercial Bank's ACB.HN co-founder Nguyen Duc Kien on Aug. 20 and then of chief executive Ly Xuan Hai on Aug. 23 have kept market investors cautious about spreading financial risks.

Monday, August 27, 2012

RTRS- UPDATE 1-Brazil's new soy harvest, exports to set record-Abiove

SAO PAULO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Brazil's grain industry association Abiove expects the world's No. 2 soy producer to turn out a record new crop of 81.3 million tonnes, possibly surpassing output from the drought-stricken United States for the first time, Abiove said on Friday.


Increased output should cause exports of the crop that will be planted starting from Sept. 15 to soar to 37.5 million tonnes, beating the previous 33.8-million-tonne export record from the 2010/11 crop.

A record 2012/2013 soybean harvest from Brazil would be welcomed by global policymakers since drought in the top-producing United States has driven up future prices and stirred up memories of the 2008 food riots.

Spot soybeans Sc1 rose 1 percent in Chicago on Friday, close to an all-time high ahead of final crop estimates from the Pro Farmer tour of the dry U.S. Midwest. (Full Story)

"Brazil will be the largest producer in the world if the United States doesn't recover from the averse climate," Abiove said in a report.

Abiove also raised slightly its export forecast for the 2011/2012 crop that finished harvest in May to 30.5 million tonnes from 30 million tonnes in its previous forecast.

Most of the exports from the meager 66.6-million-tonne crop have already been shipped. Sales abroad slipped to 4.13 million tonnes in July, down 15 percent from June. (Full Story)

June through September are typically the peak export month for soybeans, but lower output from Brazil and worries about dwindling supplies after the U.S. drought encouraged earlier sales this year.

Abiove does not explain why it adjusts its estimates, which are based on a survey of associated crushing plants.

RTRS- El Nino may spur early planting in Brazil after dry August

SAO PAULO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - After a dry August, El Nino rains could jump-start a bumper grain crop in Brazil, the world's No. 2 soybean producer, and ease fears of a global food shortage.

After two years of irregular rainfall over Brazil's grain belt during the La Nina ocean/climate phenomenon, warmer surface waters off the coast of Peru associated with El Nino have raised hopes of steadier, more abundant showers starting in September.

Analysts expect an unprecedented soybean comeback in Brazil this year, with weather forecasts, prices and a favorable exchange rate encouraging bets on soy after drought left a disappointing 65-million-tonne crop last season. (Full Story)

On the low side, Minas Gerais-based analyst Celeres expects Brazil's overall soy crop to produce a record 78.1 million tonnes, while Safras e Mercado foresees an 82.3-million-tonne crop. The government starts official forecasts in October.

"An El Nino year means above-average rainfall in the center and south of Brazil," said Flavio Franca Jr, chief soy analyst at Safras. "We are expecting the harvest to be much better than last year, which is probable because the climate was so awful."
A record 2012/2013 soybean harvest from Brazil, especially an early one, would be welcomed by global policymakers since drought in the top-producing United States has driven up future prices Sc1 and stirred up memories of the 2008 food riots.

Though planting soy before Sept. 15 is against the law in Brazil, where the government enforces measures to contain the spread of Asian rust fungus, farmers try to plant corn in August, rain permitting.

"We've had farmers calling to say they are planting corn. With rains possibly returning in September, they are planting the first corn crop to take advantage of rains that will be constant until November," said weather forecaster Olivia Nunes of Sao Paulo-based Somar Meteorologia.

The organization of farming cooperatives Ocepar in No. 2 soybean producing state Parana estimates planting will start on S e pt. 21 for 40 percent of farmland, manager Flavio Turra said.



RISKS AND REWARDS

Producers in Parana that planted soy early last year suffered most from the drought later in the season, but higher prices and the likely rains from El Nino help to justify the risk this year, Ocepar's Turra said.

Farmers in neighboring Argentina, to the south, have already seen unusually early rain this year. With the pampas farmland on track for t h e wettest August on record, they also plan to start planting corn, and perhaps soy, earlier than expected after drought parched crops last year there.(Full Story)

But farmers in Brazil still have no hard evidence of rain. A dry August in Brazil's grain belt has some doubting this year will be different from the past two, when soybean planting did not start until at least late October.

"We are still in a transition between El Nino and La Nina," said Marcelo Garrido, an economist at Parana's state agriculture agency Deral. "Parana is in a longer drought period. It still hasn't rained in August."

A grains trader in Mato Grosso confirmed a dry August in center-west Brazil, where grain planting starts before moving south. But that isn't stopping farmers from forward selling the crop faster than ever before, he said. (Full Story)

Brazil collected a record, high-yielding crop in 2010 even after La Nina climate delayed planting.

Harvest was put off from December until February that year, slowing delivery to ports. Delays could be a bigger concern in a year Brazil's soy exports may be needed to ward off a food shortage abroad.

An early soy harvest in Brazil is also important for farmers hoping to sow a second corn crop. They can start planting corn as early as January in the same fields from which they harvest their soybeans.

Brazil brought in a record 72.8-million-tonne corn crop this year thanks to a strong second crop, and the United States has been importing Brazilian corn, as it faces an expected shortage.

RTRS- UPDATE 1-Pro Farmer sees US corn, soy harvest lowest since 2003

CHICAGO, Aug 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. corn and soybean harvest will be smaller than the government is predicting due to the devastating drought that crippled crop production across the Midwest, Pro Farmer said on Friday.

The farm newsletter predicted U.S. corn production at 10.478 billion bushels, based on a yield of 120.25 bushels per acre. That compares with the U.S. Agriculture Department's latest forecast of a 10.779 billion bushel crop on a yield of 123.4 bushels per acre.

Soybean production was seen at 2.60 billion bushels on a yield of 34.8 bushels per acre, Pro Farmer said. Earlier this month, USDA pegged the soybean harvest at 2.692 billion bushels and yield at 36.1 bushels per acre.

If the forecast is realized, both crops would be the smallest since 2003. The low yields promise to tighten up world supplies and add to food inflation around the world.

Pro Farmer released its estimate following its annual crop tour, which surveyed more than 2,200 corn and soybean fields in Midwest states that accounted for 73 percent of U.S. corn production in 2011 and 66 percent of soybean production.



In Iowa, the top producer of both corn and soybeans, Pro Farmer pegged corn yields at 139 per bushels per acre as the corn went through its yield-determining phase of growth in scorching temperatures and parched soils.

"Iowa’s early start to the growing season turned into a mid-season nightmare for corn trying to pollinate and fill kernels," a Pro Farmer news release said.

Soybean yields in Iowa were forecast at 41 bushels per acre. Pro Farmer said the state's soybeans were the "least bad" of the western Corn Belt.

Corn and soybean prices rose this week -- with soybeans posting a 5.2 percent gain -- as reports from the tour trickled in, underlining the damage done by the worst drought in more than half a century.



Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed on Friday on news the European Central Bank is considering setting targets in a new bond-buying program that could help contain euro-zone borrowing costs and on hopes of more stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

Despite the day's advance, the S&P 500 broke a six-week string of gains. For the week, the benchmark index fell 0.5 percent. Conflicting perceptions of the Fed's commitment to provide more stimulus took a toll on the market this week.

Investor sentiment received a lift on Friday from U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the Fed has room to deliver additional monetary stimulus to boost the U.S. economy. Bernanke made the comment in a letter to a congressional oversight panel. (Full Story)

The letter comes a week ahead of the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Bernanke and ECB President Mario Draghi will speak.

The ECB is discussing yield-band targets under a new bond-buying program to let it shield its strategy and avoid speculators trying to cash in, central bank sources told Reuters on Friday. Any decision would not be made before the ECB's Sept. 6 policy meeting. (Full Story)

"If there can be a nice balance of stimulus that keeps interest rates low, as opposed to throwing more debt at the problems in Europe, and some level of austerity, Europe can get out of this tangle. But that balance is really the key," said Bryant Evans, investment advisor and portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management, in Champaign, Illinois.

The market's gains were fairly broad. The S&P financial index .GSPF rose 0.6 percent, with shares of American Express AXP.N up 1.9 percent at $57.49. The S&P consumer discretionary index .GSPD climbed 0.8 percent, with shares of Amazon.com AMZN.O up 1.9 percent at $245.74. During the session, Amazon's stock hit a lifetime intraday high of $246.87.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 100.51 points, or 0.77 percent, to end at 13,157.97. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX added 9.05 points, or 0.65 percent, to 1,411.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 16.39 points, or 0.54 percent, to close at 3,069.79.

Volume was the second lowest for a full day this year, with 4.6 billion shares trading on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex. The year-to-date average is 6.6 billion.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended lower on Friday following a trade journal report that the International Energy Agency may release strategic oil reserves as early as September after dropping its resistance to a U.S.-led plan.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- New-crop soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1 percent, halting a two-day slide on concerns about tightening U.S. supplies and unrelenting demand from exporters and domestic processors, traders said.

* The United States is the world's primary soy supplier until the next South American harvest arrives in early 2013.

• After the CBOT close, newsletter Pro Farmer projected U.S. 2012 soybean production at 2.6 billion bushels, below the USDA's outlook for 2.692 billion, following a week-long crop tour. (Full Story)

• Traders were also monitoring Typhoon Bolaven, which is forecast to reach mainland China by the middle of next week, potentially threatening the country's soybean and corn crops.

• Benchmark CBOT November soybeans SX2 ended the week up more than 5 percent, the contract's fourth straight weekly rise and the ninth in 10 weeks as the worst drought in five decades scorched U.S. Midwest crops.

• Gains limited by softening cash bids for soybeans in the interior Midwest and the U.S. Gulf following a pick-up in farmer sales this week. (Full Story) (Full Story)

• Brazilian grain industry association Abiove projected Brazil's 2012/13 soybean production at a record 81.3 million tonnes, possibly surpassing output from the United States. (Full Story)

• After a dry August, El Nino rains could jump-start a bumper grain crop in Brazil, the world's No. 2 soybean producer, and ease fears of a global food shortage. (Full Story)

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged higher on Friday, rising 3.6 percent in a second straight weekly gain as global oilseed supply fears and rising export demand supported prices.

A crop tour continued to give evidence of the devastation caused by the U.S. grain belt's worst drought in half a century, which has lifted soybean prices to all-time highs in recent weeks. Fears of tighter soybean oil supply have spurred a shift in vegetable oil demand to the cheaper palm oil. (Full Story)

Corn and soy fields in Iowa, the No.1 growing state for both crops, have fallen victim to the historic drought, which is expected to drag national yields below the government's latest projections, according to the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.

"The market is trying to catch up with soyoil, especially as its premium over palm oil is at more than $250 per tonne," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Exports should improve further. The market has further room to move higher, it is still trading in a tight range of 3,050-3,100 ringgit."

The benchmark November 2012 contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.3 percent to close at 3,069 ringgit ($990) per tonne. Prices hit a high of 3,100 ringgit on Thursday, a level last seen on July 17.

Futures notched up a gain of 3.6 percent this week, the best weekly performance since July.

Total traded volumes stood at 26,872 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 24 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock indexes ended lower on Friday as doubts about possible stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve prompted a broad sell-off, while Vietnam snapped a three-day losing streak as support from regulators eased concerns of banking risks.

The Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange's VN Index .VNI advanced 1.8 percent, regaining some lost ground from a drop of 10.5 percent over the past three sessions after police arrested the former chief executive officer of Asia Commercial Bank ACB.HN.

Some Vietnamese banking shares rebounded after investor confidence has been restored, with stocks of Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank STB.HM, among actively traded issue on the Ho Chi Minh bourse, up 2.03 percent.

Vietnam's key stock index posted its biggest weekly fall in over three months of 7.8 percent, the worst performer in the region. The Philippine index .PSI was the second worst, falling 1.2 percent on the week.

Friday, August 17, 2012

RTRS- Syngenta sees possible soybean seed shortage in Brazil

SAO PAULO, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Plans to plant a record soybean crop in Brazil could leave the No. 2 producer with a seed and pesticide shortage, the local head of Syngenta SYNN.VX, the world's largest agrochemicals company, said on Thursday.

Brazil's area of soybeans to be planted in 2012/2013 will likely surpass the 24.8 million hectares (61.3 million acres) last year by 2 million hectares, or 8 percent, as farmers eye record-high soybean future prices SX2, Laercio Giampani of Switzerland-based Syngenta said.

Brazil has transformed into an agricultural powerhouse in recent years, but hopes of surpassing the United States and becoming the world's top soybean producer could prove elusive due to lack of planning and infrastructure limitations.

The country's soybean seed demand will likely increase by more than 2 million bags, and most seed suppliers in the country have already cleared their inventory for the season, Giampani told Reuters.

"There will be an increased demand and we are looking at the possibility of having a lack of certain products in Brazil," he said just a few weeks before planting begins.

"If we have an unusual attack of insects or a disease, we may have a lack of pesticides," he added.

A drought resulted in a drop in output of Brazil's 2011/2012 soybean crop, and farmers are aiming for a comeback this year. They are choosing soybeans over cotton and corn, which are more expensive to produce and ship.

Grains markets are looking to Brazil to step up and help fill the gap in global supplies left by the worst drought in more than 50 years over the U.S. grain belt, the largest producer and exporter of soybeans and corn.

Local producers will not literally run out of seed but they could be forced to turn to less than optimal varieties such as beans harvested from the previous crop that were never intended for planting, which will lead to a drop yields typically.

RTRS- UPDATE 1-US crops may get a welcome drink next week

"The biggest change is for improved rainfall amounts next week starting at mid-week. Most of the Midwest will receive some rains of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with local areas getting up to 3.00 inches," said Andy Karst, a meteorologist for World Weather Inc. "Previously it looked like 0.25 to 0.75 inch."

After weeks of relentless heat stress from the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century, deteriorating corn and soybean crops were getting some relief by light rains during the past few days.

"This week we saw a decline in drought in the lower 48 states for the third week in a row, but the overall decline was small," said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist for the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska.

"Last week drought covered 62.46 percent of the area, and this week 61.77 percent was in drought," he said.

Fuchs said the weekly Drought Monitor released on Thursday showed a one-in-50-year drought was under way in the United States, and no significant letup was in sight from the devastating impact on crops and livestock.

The moderating weather this week and next week came too late to help much of the corn crop which had been planted early and bore the brunt of high heat and drought this summer. Some late-planted soybeans may benefit from the turn to cooler and damper weather.

Cooler temperatures were keeping the evaporation rates lower than the rapid disappearance of moisture during the hottest July ever.

Temperatures should remain in the 70s to 80s degrees Fahrenheit Thursday through the middle of next week, then rise to the low 90s, Karst said.

Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Thursday said better-than-expected rains of a half to one inch were received in Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday. Showers would move across the Midwest later in the week.

However, more than a third of the Midwest's soybean belt remained under stress from drought, including parts of central Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, central and southeastern South Dakota and a few spots in western Iowa, CWG said.

Still, the moisture will provide little benefit to crops that already have been severely damaged by the heat wave, according to CWG.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on Monday showed that domestic corn conditions stabilized after nine weeks of ratings declines, and soybean crop conditions improved slightly.

However, the ratings for each crop remained at their lowest levels since the last serious drought in 1988.

As the worst drought in more than a half century took its toll, investors went on a buying spree, boosting corn prices more than 50 percent from late May to record highs above $8 per bushel.

The USDA last Friday released data showing deep cuts for this year's corn and soybean output as the drought spread through America's bread basket.

The agency said the 2012 corn crop would fall below 11.0 billion bushels for the first time in six years and the number of bushels yielded per acre was at a 17-year low. Soybean production was forecast at a five-year low and soy yield per acre at nearly a 10-year low.

RTRS- ADVISORY-Cargo surveyor SGS issues palm export data on Aug 27

Cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance will release Aug 1-20 Malaysian palm oil exports data together with the Aug 1-25 data on Aug. 27 instead of Aug. 20 and Aug. 25 in view of the Eid ul-Fitri holidays.

RTRS- UPDATE 1-India's July refined palm oil imports down 9 pct on mth

MUMBAI, Aug 16 (Reuters) - India's refined palm oil imports fell 9.3 percent in July in the second straight monthly decline as importers feared the world's biggest buyer would raise duties on purchases to cut cheap supplies from Indonesia,industry data showed on Thursday.

Importers bought 112,611 tonnes of refined, bleached and deodorised palmolein in July as compared with 124,125 tonnes in the previous month, the data from the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA)showed, slightly above the average of a Reuters poll.

The government finally raised the cost of imports from Aug. 1.
India's domestic refiners have been demanding that imports be made costlier after Indonesia, the world's No. 1 palm oil producer, changed its export taxes in October 2011 to promote downstream products.

Refined palm oil imports rose 80 percent in the first nine months of the year from November over the same period a year ago.

Importers bought 486,517 tonnes of crude palm oil, up 27.7 percent on the month, the data showed.

About 80 percent of India's vegetable oil imports are palm oil, and refined product now makes up about a third of that, up from around 16 percent before Indonesia's tax changes.

The spread between crude and refined palm oils narrowed to $33 per tonne from $95 a year ago, B.V. Mehta, the executive director of the Mumbai-based trade body, said in the statement.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since early April on Thursday after comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel that appeared to support the European Central Bank's efforts to fight the region's debt crisis, while Cisco Systems jumped after it raised its dividend.

The Nasdaq outperformed the market after Cisco shares jumped nearly 10 percent and Apple Inc AAPL.O shares hit a new closing high of $636.34, while broad gains across most S&P 500 sectors offset a gloom from Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT.N.

The day's gain was the first significant move since a 2 percent gain on Aug 3. Since then, the S&P 500 has been moving mostly higher, but in a slow motion.

"I think the biggest plus today is the fact that people realize that we are now really in an upward trend. We faced resistance but for over a week, we moved higher slowly without a significant pullback. That is what's pulling people in, although volume remains low," said Frank Gretz, market analyst at Wellington Shields & Co in New York.

"Some say we are climbing the 'wall of worry.' I think we are climbing the wall of low expectations. Because nobody is expecting anything good, it is easy to move up on any news."

Merkel said ECB chief Mario Draghi's vow to do all that is necessary to defend the euro is in line with what European leaders have been saying. Some traders took that as a sign Germany may be drawing nearer to backing purchases of sovereign bonds of troubled European nations such as Spain.
Facebook Inc FB.O fell to a new low of $19.69 as shares hit the market after the expiration of a lockup period, which had prevented sales by some insiders. The stock ended down 6.3 percent at $19.87.
Cisco Systems Inc CSCO.O rose 9.6 percent to $19.02 after the company said it would hike its dividend 75 percent after surprisingly strong results late Wednesday. The dividend increase countered a gloomy outlook from Cicso on the debt crisis and recession in Europe.
NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose to three-month highs on Thursday as apparent German support for the European Central Bank's efforts to combat the euro zone crisis lifted equities, pressured the dollar and fed hopes for more economic stimulus from central banks.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell, setting back from Wednesday's 2.3 percent rise, as rains crossing parts of the U.S. Midwest lifted soy yield prospects, traders said.

* Commodity Weather Group said better-than-expected rains of 0.5 to 1.0 inch (1.3-2.5 cm) fell in Iowa and Wisconsin on Wednesday, and updated midday forecasts showed a better chance for rains next week than earlier outlooks had indicated.
• Trade remained light, with estimated volume in CBOT soybean futures on track to fall below 130,000 contracts for a third straight day.

• Additional pressure stemmed from USDA Farm Service Agency data that some traders said implied an increase in U.S. 2012 soybean planted acreage from USDA's Aug. 10 crop report.

• Firm domestic cash soybean markets underpinned spot September soybeans SU2, limiting losses. Farmer soy sales have slowed while cash crush margins remain strong, traders said.

• Plans to plant a record soybean crop in Brazil could leave the No. 2 producer with a seed and pesticide shortage, the local head of Syngenta SYNN.VX, the world's largest agrochemicals company, said.
• USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.022 million tonnes (old and new crop years combined), topping trade expectations for 750,000 to 950,000 tonnes.

• USDA reported weekly U.S. soymeal sales at 130,700 tonnes, below trade expectations for 150,000 to 250,000, and soyoil sales at a net 1,500 tonnes, below expectations.

• USDA said exporters reported the sale of 123,900 tonnes of U.S. soymeal to the Philippines for 2012/13 delivery.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures edged up to a near 2-week high on Thursday as exports staged a tentative recovery, signalling stocks could come under pressure.

Futures had dropped on Tuesday to the lowest since last October, as higher output and slower exports initially raised concerns over swelling stocks in Malaysia.

But prices recovered after Wednesday's export data showed signs of recovery for the first half of August, which could put pressure on stocks that hit a 5-month high in July.

"It looks like there has been some profit-taking from traders who shorted a few days back. After all, the market has come down by almost 300 ringgit," said a Singapore-based trader with a foreign commodities house.

The benchmark November palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 1.4 percent to close at 2,942 ringgit ($941) per tonne, just off a high of 2,948 ringgit, a level last seen on Aug. 3.

The contract hit a low of 2,820 ringgit on Tuesday, a level not seen since Oct. 18 last year.

Total traded volumes stood at 30,017 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday with Malaysia falling after six days of gains and Singapore eking out slim gains led by commodities stocks such as Noble Group Ltd.

Malaysia's main index .KLSE finished down 0.22 percent after a choppy session while Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI was up 0.03 percent. Noble Group NOBG.SI and Wilmar International Ltd WLIL.SI each advanced more than 2 percent.

Oil prices, which steadied near three-month highs, were supportive to sentiment in commodities but the broader market remained fragile due to worries about the global economy.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE extended its gain for a third session, rising 0.45 percent to the highest close in more than three months. The market reopens on Thursday after six days of holidays.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were steady on Wednesday, holding close to their highest level since May on hopes of more central bank stimulus for struggling economies, but uncertainty about the extent and timing of any moves hurt the euro and safe-haven U.S. and German government bonds.

Oil prices in London clung near three-month peaks, boosted by worries about supply disruption due to Mideast tensions, while a focus on some weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data pushed gold back above $1,600 an ounce.

Stock markets have been riding high in recent weeks on hopes that European Central Bank plans expected to be detailed in September can put a floor under Spain and Italy's debt troubles and prevent the euro zone from unraveling.

Traders have also raised bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of large-scale bond purchases, known as QE3, perhaps as soon as its next policy meeting in September.

While recent weak economic data in Europe and Asia supported the view that more monetary stimulus is needed to avert a global recession, surprisingly strong July figures on U.S. employment and retail sales recently caused some traders to reconsider the expected timing on QE3.

"While one or two data points alone will not meaningfully alter the outlook for Fed monetary policy, additional upside surprises to U.S. data over the coming weeks would indeed see investors scale back expectations for additional Fed easing," said Omer Esiner, chief analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

Data on Wednesday added to evidence the U.S. economy may not be as weak as previously feared. The Federal Reserve reported a 0.6 percent increase in industrial output in July, and a separate private-sector report showed that a gauge of home builder confidence hit its highest level in more than five years in August.

But a report from the New York Federal Reserve showed manufacturing in New York state contracted for the first time in 10 months. The New York Fed's Empire State index provides one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions.

Investors took solace for now that a sluggish U.S. economy would not result in a severe deterioration in consumer demand and corporate profits, supporting some appetite for equities.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index .SPX has lingered around the 1,400 point mark, close to a four-year high. Analysts said Wall Street will likely stay around current levels through options expiration on Friday. .N

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended down 7.43 points, or 0.06 percent, at 13,164.71. The S&P 500 Index .SPX closed up 1.57 points, or 0.11 percent, at 1,405.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished up 13.95 points, or 0.46 percent, at 3,030.93.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Wednesday, posting the highest settlement since mid-May, as a drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, expectations that North Sea production will drop in September and increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices.

U.S. crude oil stocks fell 3.7 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report on Wednesday, a much bigger drop than was expected.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Aug 15 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 2.4 percent Wednesday, halting a two-day setback, on firming cash markets and talk that top global buyer China was seeking U.S. soybeans, traders said.

• Several U.S. soy processing plants raised their cash basis bids for soybeans over the past day by 10 to 15 cents per bushel as farmer offerings slowed.

• Profit margins for soybean processors have been strong due to near-record prices for soymeal, creating an incentive for processors to buy and crush soybeans, traders said.

• The cash premium for promptly shipped U.S. soybean barges at the U.S. Gulf Coast spiked as at least one exporter was short of needed soybeans amid very tight supplies in the marketing pipeline, traders said.

• Soymeal and soyoil both ended higher but meal gained relative to oil on meal/oil spreads.

• Trade was thin, with volume in soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures well below the prior 250-day average.

• Light showers in nearly all of the U.S. Midwest crop belt and cooler temperatures this week should slow the deterioration of soybean plants already hurt by the worst U.S. drought in half a century.
• China's unrelenting imports of soybean could hit a wall soon as oilseed processors in the world's top buyer cut purchases, with margins being eroded by a drought-driven rally in the United States and domestic price curbs urged by Beijing.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures gained slightly on Wednesday as last-minute buying on rising exports for the first half of August erased losses posted earlier in the session.

The Southeast Asian country's palm oil exports showed signs of recovery after declines in July, bringing some cheer to the market that has lost almost 10 percent this year.
But prices were still hovering above a 10-month low hit the previous day as traders bet on improving soybean conditions in the United States to supply more oilseeds to be crushed into vegetable oil.

"Exports are slightly better compared to last month, but the thing is, market sentiment is still bearish," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The physical cash market is weak, and with that in mind it is difficult for futures to go up," the trader said.

At closing, the benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched up just 0.1 percent to 2,862 ringgit ($916) per tonne. The contract hit a low of 2,820 ringgit on Tuesday, a level not seen since Oct. 18.

Total traded volumes stood at 27,064 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REQIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets ended flat to weaker on Wednesday, with Singapore dropping almost 1 percent, led down by palm oil firm Wilmar International Ltd WLIL.SI which came under selling pressure due to worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.

The Straits Times Index .FTSTI ended three sessions of gains, with Wilmar down 7.1 percent.
Thai index .SETI ended unchanged in a choppy session and after a six-day rising streak as profit-taking hit recent gainers such as Bangkok Bank Pcl BBL.BK.

Market players in large part remained cautious as global growth concerns broadly hit shares in Europe and Asia on the day.

Malaysia .KLSE inched up 0.05 percent at 1,653.78, topping a record closing high of 1,652.90 on Tuesday. The Philippine index .PSI was flat after Tuesday's 0.1 percent fall. Vietnam .VNI rose for a third session, adding 0.3 percent to the highest close since June 21.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

RTRS- Oil World sees Europe's 2012 sunflower crop down 11.7 pct

AMSTERDAM, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Sunflower seed production in the European Union, Ukraine and Russia will drop 11.7 percent to a total of 24.82 million tonnes this year, from 28.12 million tonnes a year ago, Hamburg-based oilseed analyst Oil World said on Tuesday.

"We are now in a transition period, when sunseed oil (fob Black Sea) is still offered competitively to soya oil (fob Argentina) to the major importing countries of North Africa and India owing to more attractive freight costs," Oil World said.

" But the prospective large decline by 3.3 million tonnes in this year's combined sunseed production i n the European Union and the CIS countries will enforce a reduction in crushings and strengthen the prices of sunseed, oil and meal in the next months, spilling over also to rapeseed and products."

Oil World has cut its estimate for sunflower production in the EU member states to 7.22 million tonnes from 7.87 million tonnes previously because of drought in Central and Eastern Europe as well as in Spain.

Sunflower production in key exporters Ukraine and Russia is forecast to decline to 17.6 million tonnes from 19.9 million tonnes in the previous year.

"Above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall have taken their toll in the development of corn and sunseed in Russia and Ukraine," Oil World said in its weekly edition.

The decline in sunflower production in the Black Sea region will reduce the region's export supplies and limit the imports to the EU to up to 350,000 tonnes, it said.

Last year, the EU member states whose sunflower production totalled 8.22 million tonnes - a million tonnes above this year's forecast - imported 322,000 tonnes of sunflower seed from Ukraine and Russia.