Thursday, August 16, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were steady on Wednesday, holding close to their highest level since May on hopes of more central bank stimulus for struggling economies, but uncertainty about the extent and timing of any moves hurt the euro and safe-haven U.S. and German government bonds.

Oil prices in London clung near three-month peaks, boosted by worries about supply disruption due to Mideast tensions, while a focus on some weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data pushed gold back above $1,600 an ounce.

Stock markets have been riding high in recent weeks on hopes that European Central Bank plans expected to be detailed in September can put a floor under Spain and Italy's debt troubles and prevent the euro zone from unraveling.

Traders have also raised bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of large-scale bond purchases, known as QE3, perhaps as soon as its next policy meeting in September.

While recent weak economic data in Europe and Asia supported the view that more monetary stimulus is needed to avert a global recession, surprisingly strong July figures on U.S. employment and retail sales recently caused some traders to reconsider the expected timing on QE3.

"While one or two data points alone will not meaningfully alter the outlook for Fed monetary policy, additional upside surprises to U.S. data over the coming weeks would indeed see investors scale back expectations for additional Fed easing," said Omer Esiner, chief analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.

Data on Wednesday added to evidence the U.S. economy may not be as weak as previously feared. The Federal Reserve reported a 0.6 percent increase in industrial output in July, and a separate private-sector report showed that a gauge of home builder confidence hit its highest level in more than five years in August.

But a report from the New York Federal Reserve showed manufacturing in New York state contracted for the first time in 10 months. The New York Fed's Empire State index provides one of the earliest monthly guideposts to U.S. factory conditions.

Investors took solace for now that a sluggish U.S. economy would not result in a severe deterioration in consumer demand and corporate profits, supporting some appetite for equities.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index .SPX has lingered around the 1,400 point mark, close to a four-year high. Analysts said Wall Street will likely stay around current levels through options expiration on Friday. .N

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI ended down 7.43 points, or 0.06 percent, at 13,164.71. The S&P 500 Index .SPX closed up 1.57 points, or 0.11 percent, at 1,405.50. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC finished up 13.95 points, or 0.46 percent, at 3,030.93.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Wednesday, posting the highest settlement since mid-May, as a drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, expectations that North Sea production will drop in September and increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East lifted oil prices.

U.S. crude oil stocks fell 3.7 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report on Wednesday, a much bigger drop than was expected.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Aug 15 (Reuters) - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 2.4 percent Wednesday, halting a two-day setback, on firming cash markets and talk that top global buyer China was seeking U.S. soybeans, traders said.

• Several U.S. soy processing plants raised their cash basis bids for soybeans over the past day by 10 to 15 cents per bushel as farmer offerings slowed.

• Profit margins for soybean processors have been strong due to near-record prices for soymeal, creating an incentive for processors to buy and crush soybeans, traders said.

• The cash premium for promptly shipped U.S. soybean barges at the U.S. Gulf Coast spiked as at least one exporter was short of needed soybeans amid very tight supplies in the marketing pipeline, traders said.

• Soymeal and soyoil both ended higher but meal gained relative to oil on meal/oil spreads.

• Trade was thin, with volume in soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures well below the prior 250-day average.

• Light showers in nearly all of the U.S. Midwest crop belt and cooler temperatures this week should slow the deterioration of soybean plants already hurt by the worst U.S. drought in half a century.
• China's unrelenting imports of soybean could hit a wall soon as oilseed processors in the world's top buyer cut purchases, with margins being eroded by a drought-driven rally in the United States and domestic price curbs urged by Beijing.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures gained slightly on Wednesday as last-minute buying on rising exports for the first half of August erased losses posted earlier in the session.

The Southeast Asian country's palm oil exports showed signs of recovery after declines in July, bringing some cheer to the market that has lost almost 10 percent this year.
But prices were still hovering above a 10-month low hit the previous day as traders bet on improving soybean conditions in the United States to supply more oilseeds to be crushed into vegetable oil.

"Exports are slightly better compared to last month, but the thing is, market sentiment is still bearish," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"The physical cash market is weak, and with that in mind it is difficult for futures to go up," the trader said.

At closing, the benchmark October palm oil futures FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange inched up just 0.1 percent to 2,862 ringgit ($916) per tonne. The contract hit a low of 2,820 ringgit on Tuesday, a level not seen since Oct. 18.

Total traded volumes stood at 27,064 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

REQIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Aug 15 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets ended flat to weaker on Wednesday, with Singapore dropping almost 1 percent, led down by palm oil firm Wilmar International Ltd WLIL.SI which came under selling pressure due to worse-than-expected quarterly earnings.

The Straits Times Index .FTSTI ended three sessions of gains, with Wilmar down 7.1 percent.
Thai index .SETI ended unchanged in a choppy session and after a six-day rising streak as profit-taking hit recent gainers such as Bangkok Bank Pcl BBL.BK.

Market players in large part remained cautious as global growth concerns broadly hit shares in Europe and Asia on the day.

Malaysia .KLSE inched up 0.05 percent at 1,653.78, topping a record closing high of 1,652.90 on Tuesday. The Philippine index .PSI was flat after Tuesday's 0.1 percent fall. Vietnam .VNI rose for a third session, adding 0.3 percent to the highest close since June 21.