Friday, October 24, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures crasehd to end at the new 2-years low again

CPO futures crashed by 10.3% to end at the new 2-year low again, amid fear of high stock level and also regional stock market meltdown spill over to local commodities market. Benchmark Jan09 open at 1520 and hit intra day high of 1556 after covering yesterday’s gap. Then it just gives up its gain and tumbled all the way down for the rest of the day. Crude oil surrendered its earlier gain and fell more than $4 during Asian time trading. Furthermore, Reuters poll had stated that Malaysia’s October palm oil stock are expected to climb to a record level of 2.04 million tones as output rises amid slowdown in export. This has worsened the already weak market sentiment. As traders worry of that build-up in stock supplies, CPO prices were slammed down by its daily 10% trading limit and extend its limit to 15%. Benchmark Jan09 settled at 1390, down by RM160, after it hit the intra day low of 1358.

Breaking News-RTRS--POLL-Malaysia's Oct palm stocks may scale new record

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 24 - Malaysia's October palm oil
stocks are expected to climb 4.6 percent to a record level of
2.04 million tonnes as output still rose despite the holiday
season amid a marked slowdown in shipments, a Reuters poll showed
on Friday.
Palm oil production in Malaysia, the world's second-largest
supplier, will probably edge up 0.7 percent to 1.59 million
tonnes in October, according to a median estimate of five
plantation houses.
Although the rate of production has somewhat slowed compared
to previous months, perhaps heralding the end of the high
production cycle as some respondents say, exports still lagged
behind, sliding 7.2 percent in October to 1.2 million tonnes.

Breaking News-RTRS-MALAYSIAN PALM OIL HITS 10 PCT LIMIT DOWN ON FALLING CRUDE OIL, HIGH STOCK FEARS

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 24 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures slumped by its daily 10 percent trading limit on Friday as crude oil posted heavy losses amid fears of a build-up in supplies, traders said.
The benchmark January 2009 contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 155 ringgit to 1,395 ringgit ($389.9) per tonne.

Breaking News-RTRS-US regulators examining market close stock surges

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators are taking a closer look at unprecedented volatility in stock markets near the close of trading, hunting for any signs of manipulation.
"It is something we're looking at," said Brendan Intindola, a spokesman for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. "We're really taking an extra close look at it in the light of the volatility we've seen in the market in recent weeks."
FINRA typically looks at "market on close" activity, which are orders executed as near to the end of the exchange day as possible.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks clawed back from five-year lows on Thursday, led by a bounce in energy and health-care stocks after oil recovered from a 16-month trough and top pharmaceutical companies posted reassuring earnings.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 172.04 points, or 2.02 percent, to 8,691.25, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> gained 11.33 points, or 1.26 percent, to 908.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC>, however, was down 11.84 points, or 0.73 percent, at 1,603.91.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose on Thursday, bouncing ahead of Friday's OPEC meeting expected to result in a production cut.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude rose $1.09, or 1.63 percent, to settle at $67.84 a barrel, trading from $65.90 to $69.41.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - November up 25-1/2 cents at $8.84-1/2 a bushel; January up 23-3/4 at $8.88-1/2.

U.S. Census Bureau reported September soy crush at 125.7 million bushels, versus estimates for 127.0-127.4 million.

CBOT-SOYOIL
- December up 0.48 cent at 32.82 cents per lb.

Higher on spillover from soybeans, crude oil. Trading limit expanded to 3.5 cents for Thursday's session..

Census preliminary U.S. September soyoil stocks figure was 2.528 billion lbs, versus estimates for 2.378-2.435 billion.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Vegetable oil markets in Asia recouped some of Thursday's losses as investors tiptoed back on expectations OPEC would cut supplies of crude oil and boost commodities across the board.

Malaysian crude palm oil futures ended 1 percent lower after tumbling much as 5.8 percent, Dalian soyoil bounced away from its 5 percent limit down and Chicago soybean oil rose 0.5 percent.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-SINGAPORE, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian equities took
another beating on Thursday on earnings worries, while uneasiness over persistent credit tightness hit banks such as DBS Group and PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia .

Indonesian shares <.JKSE> slid 3.1 percent to mark a fresh 2-year low, the Philippine index <.PSI> dropped 4.6 percent, while Vietnam <.VNI> gave up 3.9 percent.

Thai stocks <.SETI> lost 2.8 percent, while Malaysia <.KLSE> eased 1.4 percent, maintaining its outperformance in the region. Banks were among the main losers in the region.

Singapore's top lender by assets DBS Group fell 5.3 percent to mark a new 5-year low. The bank said on Wednesday it will compensate as much as $53.4 million to some investors who bought structured products linked to collapsed bank Lehman
Brothers.

Malaysia's Maybank , which said it has identified Lehman-linked investors, also fell 2.8 percent. Rival Bumiputra Commerce slid 3.6 percent, even
after the country's Association of Banks said in a statement its banks remain well-capitalised and lending activities have not been affected.

Among other losers, Thai's Siam Commercial Bank dropped 4.2 percent, while Indonesia's PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk plunged 7.1 percent.

DJI Daily: stuck in range


Market stuck in range. We continue to look for the support and resistance at 8197 and 9280-9300 level respectively.