Monday, February 18, 2013

Trader's highlight


DJI - NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 dipped in a late decline on Friday as Wal-Mart dropped following a report of a weak start to February sales, though the index just barely extended its streak of weekly gains to seven.

"When a retailer of this size comes out with this kind of lousy news, the whole market can fall off, especially on a Friday afternoon," said Mike Shea, trader at Direct Access Partners in New York. "However, I'm not worried that this is indicative of any larger macro issue with retail."

Equities have struggled for direction recently, with major indexes moving only slightly in the past several sessions. The S&P didn't end a session with a move greater than 0.2 percent at all this week.

The benchmark index, up 6.6 percent so far this year, is facing strong technical resistance near the 1,525 level. But investors, expecting the index to advance further in the quarter, have held back from locking in profits.

"There's no news that suggests the strong underpinning for stocks isn't appropriate. We may have gotten ahead of ourselves, but there's also an absence of bad news," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia.

Many investors are starting to look ahead to a debate in Washington over sequestration, automatic across-the-board spending cuts put in place as part of a larger congressional budget fight. The cuts are due to kick in March 1 unless lawmakers agree to an alternative.

"This had been far enough out to not yet become an impediment for stocks, but it will start to move into the forefront and cause people to take a bit of a jaundiced eye towards the market," said Luschini, who helps oversee about $54 billion in assets.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 11.27 points, or 0.08 percent, at 13,984.66. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 0.32 points, or 0.02 percent, at 1,521.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index  was up 1.51 points, or 0.05 percent, at 3,200.17.

For the week, both the Dow and Nasdaq fell 0.1 percent while the S&P rose 0.1 percent in its seventh straight week of gains, a period during which the index rose 8.4 percent. The last such seven-week run was between December 2010 and January 2011.

The New York Federal Reserve said manufacturing in New York state expanded for the first time in seven months, while Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment rose from the prior month and beat expectations.

Wall Street's gain thus far in 2013 has largely been driven by strong corporate earnings, while data indicated some weakening in economic conditions.

A surge in merger and acquisition activity, with more than $158 billion in deals announced so far in 2013, has given further support to the equity market as it points to healthy valuations and bets on the economic outlook. 

Oil service stocks declined, weighed by a 5.1 percent drop in shares of Transocean  to $56.26, after the rig contractor reported its fleet update and Deutsche Bank cut its rating on the stock to "sell." The PHLX oil service sector  lost 1.5 percent.

Slightly more stocks fell than rose on the New York Stock Exchange while about 50 percent of Nasdaq shares ended lower. About 6.69 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, above the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares.


NYMEX - TOKYO, Feb 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures were steady above $97 a barrel on Friday, holding a slight gain from the day before on encouraging U.S. jobless data and concerns over U.S. gasoline supply.


CBOT SoybeanSoybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher as traders covered short positions ahead of a three-day U.S. holiday weekend, traders said.

* Support stemmed from uncertainty about weather in crop areas of Argentina, where urgently needed rains were expected to fall this weekend. Two-thirds of the county's soybeans should pick up at least 0.5 inch of rain, the Commodity Weather Group said.
 
·    U.S. markets will be closed Monday for the Presidents Day federal holiday. Trade in CBOT grains on the Globex platform resumes Monday at 7 p.m. CST (0100 GMT), for trade date Tuesday.

·   Market rallied despite USDA saying private exporters  reported the cancellation of 250,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans sold to unknown destinations for delivery in 2012/13.
 
·   Also bearish, NOPA reported the U.S. soybean crush for January at 158.195 million bushels, down from 159.899 million in December and below the average analyst estimate of 159.5 million.

·     Soyoil was pressured after NOPA put U.S. January soyoil stocks at 2.823 billion lbs, up from 2.600 billion in December and above a range of analyst estimates from 2.570 billion to 2.820 billion lbs, with an average estimate of 2.685 billion.

·     For the week, March soybeans  fell 28 cents or 1.9 percent, down for a second straight week. March soymeal fell 3.1 percent while March soyoil  edged up 0.4 percent, rallying from last week's nearly 3 percent decline.



FCPO - KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures fell to their lowest in more than two weeks on Friday, giving up earlier gains as investors turned cautious after the government raised its crude palm oil export tax for March.

The edible oil rose in the morning session after cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services reported a 18.1 percent increase in Malaysian palm oil exports for the first half of February from a month ago.

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, also reported a 13.6 percent rise in shipments for the same period.

But selling pressure emerged after the world's No.2 palm oil producer said it will set its crude palm oil export tax for March at 4.5 percent, up from February's zero percent, making the crude grade more expensive for overseas buyers.

"The export tax was more important in the traders' minds," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

The benchmark April contract  on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.4 percent lower at 2,486 ringgit ($804) per tonne. Prices dropped as low as 2,476 ringgit, the lowest level since Jan. 30.

Total traded volumes stood at 27,269 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly higher than the average of 25,000 tonnes.

For the week, palm oil posted a 2.9 percent loss, snapping four straight weeks of gains.

A zero-percent duty tax structure introduced by Malaysia in January and February had provided positive sentiment for investors, but forecasts of bumper soy crops in Latin America, palm's vegetable oil competitor, has weighed on the market and kept prices rangebound.

"For the past few months, high stockpiles and improving weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina have continued to weigh on prices," said Phillip Futures analyst Ker Chung Yang in Singapore.

In other markets, Brent crude eased below $118 per barrel on Friday and was heading for its first weekly loss in five after disappointing euro zone data revived concerns about the troubled region.

In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March delivery inched up 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The Dalian Commodity Exchange is closed for the Lunar New Year holidays and will resume trading on Monday.


Regional Equities - BANGKOK, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Indonesian stocks set a record high for a fifth straight session on Friday led by large caps such as PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia while others ended mixed as a revival in worries about global economic growth weighed on broader Asia.

Jakarta's Composite Index ended up 0.5 percent at 4,609.79, rising 2.6 percent on the week, making it Southeast Asia's best performer. The market received $155 million of net foreign inflows in the week to Thursday, Thomson Reuters data showed.

Philippine Composite Index shares ended the day up 0.13 percent at 6,521.64, still below a record finish of 6,527.99 hit early in the week.

Stocks in Singapore and Malaysia both ended at one-week low in light trading volumes. Singapore's Straits Times Index  edged down 0.2 percent at 3283.07 and Kuala Lumpur's Composite Index  fell 0.2 percent to 1,627.93.

The Malaysian bourse said foreign investors bought shares worth a net $27 million on the day.

Thai SET index  eased 0.3 percent to 1,521.52. It still gained 1.6 percent on the week, the region's second best, with domestic institutions leading buyers. The market posted $69 million in foreign selling in the week to Thursday, data showed.

Foreign investors have slowed new investment as they waited for the Bank of Thailand's (Monetary Policy Committee) MPC meeting to review its benchmark interest rate on Feb. 20. Most economists have expected the MPC to maintain the rate at 2.75 percent.

"Next week, the SET index movement will mainly rely on internal factors; the fourth quarter GDP, the MPC meeting and the earnings – dividend payout announcements," broker Maybank Kim Eng Securities said in a report.