Wednesday, April 18, 2012

RTRS- Oil World cuts Argentine, Brazil soy crop estimate

HAMBURG, April 17 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analyst Oil World said on Tuesday it had cut its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop by 1.0 million tonnes and that of Brazil by 0.5 million tonnes after drought damaged harvests.

Oil World now forecasts Argentina's 2012 soybean crop at 44.0 million tonnes, down from 49.2 million in 2011. Brazil's crop is forecast at 65.0 million tonnes from 75.3 million tonnes in 2011.

The latest forecasts were further reduced from Oil World's Apr. 10 crop estimates which had also been cut by a combined 2.5 million tonnes for the two countries as the lingering impact of dry weather becomes clearer.

The estimates compare to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's forecast on Apr. 10 of a 45.0 million tonnes soybean crop for Argentina and 66.0 million tonnes for Brazil. [ID:nUIDAFE86Q] Local observers in Argentina and Brazil have also cut soybean crop estimates. [ID:nL2E8FCEEC] [ID:nL2E8FA29Q]

The poor South American crops mean global 2011/12 season soybean production will fall 26.6 million tonnes on the year to 239 million tonnes, Oil World estimates.

"The magnitude of this decline is unprecedented," Oil World said. "This is going to reduce world soybean stocks more sharply than expected by end-August 2012."

"The tightness is going to spill over to at least the first of the world crop season 2012/13, when a sharp decline in South American exports will raise the dependence on U.S. supplies."

World Apr./Sept. 2012 soybean crushings are likely to be smaller than anticipated which will keep prices of soymeal and soyoil well supported, Oil World said.

RTRS- Fire closes USDA, delays Crop Progress report

WASHINGTON, April 16 (Reuters) - An overnight fire forced the closure of the U.S. Agriculture Department complex on the National Mall and disrupted the flow of data to commodity markets, including a closely watched report on U.S. crop development, officials said on Monday.

The weekly crop progress report, ordinarily released on Monday afternoon, was rescheduled because of the blaze, which fire fighters put out. The report will now be released Tuesday at 4 p.m. EDT (2000 GMT).

The closure also delayed reports such as the weekly tally of grain inspected for export, a gauge of demand for U.S. crops.

No data was lost due to the fire, USDA spokesman Justin DeJong said. USDA employees were given administrative leave on Monday, but are expected to return on Tuesday.

"We do anticipate that the facilities will be open for business tomorrow," DeJong said.

Because of the fire, power was shut off to the South Building, the third-largest federal building, and internal USDA computer networks were shut down. Spokesmen said the shutdown disrupted work on the crop progress report, which usually receives reports from the field on Monday for compilation into a nationwide report with state-by-state data.

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told reporters at an unrelated conference in Washington, D.C., he has now relocated to the Forest Service building a block away from the USDA administration building.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks scored their biggest gains in a month on Tuesday after Coca-Cola led a round of strong earnings and as concerns about Europe's debt crisis eased as Spanish bond yields fell.

Apple Inc shares ended a five-day losing streak with a rally of 5.1 percent, helping the Nasdaq Composite close above 3,000. The stock closed at $609.70 and booked its best day
in almost three months after it dropped 8.8 percent in the previous five sessions.

IBM, Intel and Yahoo all beat earnings estimates in their reports after the closing bell. [ID:nL2E8FHGE1]

Earlier in the day, Coca-Cola , Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson all reported profits that beat analysts' estimates, in what has been a surprisingly strong start to earnings season.


German analyst and investor confidence rose unexpectedly in April to a high not seen since June 2010 while better-than-expected results from Spanish debt sales boosted confidence before a long-term debt auction later in the week. [ID:nL6E8FH3JI] [ID:nL6E8FH4DC]

ING's Zemsky said it was hard for any market to dismiss the significantly stronger-than-expected German survey.

The benchmark Spanish 10-year note's yield slipped below 6 percent, but worries about Madrid's finances and the banking sector are likely to keep the pressure on in coming days.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 194.13 points, or 1.50 percent, to close at 13,115.54. The S&P 500 Index <.SPX> gained 21.21 points, or 1.55 percent, to 1,390.78. The Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> climbed 54.42 points, or 1.82 percent, to 3,042.82.


NYMEX- NEW YORK, April 17 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose for a second straight day on Tuesday, as prospects of an earlier-than-expected reversal of the Seaway pipeline to help ease the glut of oil in the Midwest continued to fuel buying.

A well-received Spanish debt auction, upbeat German economic sentiment and higher global economic growth forecast by the IMF were also supportive for crude.

Traders were awaiting further direction from the weekly petroleum inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute scheduled at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT). The U.S. Energy
Information Administration will follow with its report on Wednesday, at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Ahead of the reports, a Reuters poll forecast that domestic crude stocks rose 1.4 million barrels in the week to April 13. Distillate stocks fell 200,000 barrels and gasoline stocks declined 900,000 barrels, the poll also showed. [IEA/S]

In other news, U.S. President Barack Obama proposed new measures that would raise civil and criminal penalties for individuals and companies involved in oil market manipulation.

Obama also proposed that Congress give the Commodity Futures Trading Commission authority to require traders to increase their margins, or collateral, when trading in oil futures.[ID:nL2E8FH1EQ]

In response, exchange operator CME Group said Obama's plan on margins was "misplaced," and warmed that the move risked raising prices.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for May delivery , which expires on Friday, settled at $104.20 a barrel, gaining $1.27, or 1.23 percent, the highest since April 2, after trading between $102.66 and $105.07.

* NYMEX June crude settled at $106.64, also up $1.27, or 1.23 percent, while ICE Brent June crude settled up 10 cents, or 0.08 percent, at $118.78. That further narrowed Brent's premium against U.S. crude, to $14.14, from $15.31 on Monday .


CBOT- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended, bouncing back from Monday's 1 percent slide on talk of export demand for U.S. soybeans, especially from top buyer China,
traders said.

* The market ended off day's highs, with some traders liquidating longs after May soybeans failed to match the session high from Monday.

* USDA confirmed sales of 225,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations, including 110,000 tonnes for delivery in 2011/12 and 115,000 tonnes for 2012/13. [ID:nW1E8E8021]

* Oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop to 44 million tonnes, down 1 million, and that of Brazil to 65.0 million tonnes, down 0.5 million, due to drought. [ID:nL6E8FG9RH]

* The Kaohsiung division of Taiwan's Breakfast Soybean Procurement Association bought 60,000 tonnes of soybeans to be sourced from Brazil - trade. [ID:nL6E8FH29M]

* A consortium of Israeli private buyers issued a tender to buy up to 22,000 tonnes of U.S. corn products and 20,000 tonnes of U.S. soymeal - trade. [ID:nL6E8FH888]

* USDA was expected to release its weekly crop progress report on Tuesday afternoon, one day later than normal, due to a fire that temporarily shut USDA offices in Washington.[ID:nL2E8FG9Y6]


FCPO- SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched up on Tuesday on tightening global oilseed supply, although gains were limited as weaker exports and soaring
Spanish borrowing costs weighed on sentiment.

Malaysian palm oil stocks dropped below the 2-million-tonne mark for the first time this year, reinforcing views of a tight global supply amid a lower soy crop in drought-hit South America.

But concerns of a slowing commodity demand also surfaced with Spain's surging borrowing costs stoking investor nervousness over euro zone debt woes and weaker global economic growth. [ID:nL6E8FG9K3]

"Negative macroeconomic factors coupled with weaker export numbers may force traders to take profits. But fundamentally supply for crude palm oil and other vegetable oil is still very
tight, so that should be supportive throughout the second quarter," said Alan Lim, research analyst with Kenanga Investment Bank in Malaysia.

At closing, benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained a 0.5 percent at 3,503 ringgit ($1,143) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 32,201 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

According to technical charts, a bearish target of 3,401 ringgit per tonne will only be confirmed if palm oil drops below 3,454 ringgit, Reuters market analyst Wang Tao said. [ID:nL3E8FH13N]

Malaysia's palm oil stocks for March fell to a seven-month low at 1.96 million tonnes, beating market estimates, forcing traders to ramp up crude palm oil purchases in fear of a potential shortfall. [ I D:nK7E7ND021]

Malaysian palm oil exports fell by close to 15 percent for the first half of April from a month ago, according to cargo surveyor data. Exports for refined products suffered declines as orders shifted to top producer Indonesia, which enjoyed a favourable tax structure. [PALM/ITS] [PALM/SGS]


REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, April 17 (Reuters) - Thai stocks fell nearly 1 percent on Tuesday and shares in Singapore and Malaysia edged lower as renewed worries about debt problems in Europe curbed investors' appetite for riskier assets.

The Thai stock market saw net foreign outflows of around 800 million baht ($26 million) in the morning session, according to broker Phillip Securities strategist Teerada Charnyingyong.

The market posted combined foreign outflows of $160 million in past two sessions to April 12 before a four-day weekend.

"The Thai market still has a fairly high concerns about Europe's debt problems, in line with the region. Investors are uncertain of what to do and risk appetite is slowing down," said Teerada of Phillip Securities.

Thailand had seen strong inflows this year, with $2.6 billion of net foreign purchases this year to April 12, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Indonesia <.JKSE> had $1.2 billion worth of foreign inflows for the same period, with Vietnam's the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange index <.VNI> reporting $23.57 of inflows for the
period, data showed.

Thailand's benchmark index <.SETI> closed 0.8 percent lower, with Singapore <.FTSTI> down 0.2 percent and Malaysia <.KLSE> slipping 0.1 percent.

The Philippines <.PSI> and Indonesia bucked the trend, rising 0.8 percent and 0.3 percent, resptively. Vietnam's main index rose 1 percent.