Friday, November 21, 2008

Trader's Comment: CPO futures recouped most of its early losses to end slightly lower.

CPO futures recouped most of its early losses to end slightly lower. Benchmark Feb09 initially open RM67 lower at 1401 and slid down to hit the intra day low of 1386, tracking overnight NYMEX crude oil which traded below USD 50 level, while Dalian palm also traded at limit down price in early trading. However, CPO futures prices were still well supported following spill over buying interest from the recovery of regional equity market. Buyers started their bargain activities to take advantage of low prices and it gradually climbed up through out the session. The rebound of NYMEX crude oil traded in Asian time which climbed back above USD 50 level had further underpinned the market sentiment. Benchmark Feb09 continued to rebound and hit the intra day high of 1471 before it settled at 1460 down RM8.

Breaking News- RTRS-UPDATE 2-China plans more soy, corn reserve purchases-trade

BEIJING, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Chinese government plans to buy as much as another 3 million tonnes of soybeans and 5 million tonnes of corn for state reserves to bolster domestic prices, traders said on Thursday, a move that could suck more cargoes into the world's largest soybean importer.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks plunged yet again on Thursday, as a frantic flight from risk prompted by investors' deepening economic fears drove the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index to its lowest level since 1997 -- completing the erasure of more than a decade of stock market gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> plunged 444.99 points, or 5.56 percent, to 7,552.29. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> lost 54.14 points, or 6.71 percent, to 752.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> slid 70.30 points, or 5.07 percent, to 1,316.12.

The number of American workers on the unemployment rolls surged to the highest in a quarter century, government data showed, while a regional manufacturing gauge slumped as the economic misery intensified.

Democratic leaders said automakers can submit another plan by Dec. 2, adding that the proposal could be considered the week of Dec. 8.

NYMEX
-NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended below $50 a barrel on Thursday, hitting a 3-1/2-year low as the front-month December contract expired amid worries about a weakened economy further cutting oil demand.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down $4, or 7.46 percent, at $49.62 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 23, 2005, when prices ended at $49.16. It traded from $48.50 -- lowest since prices fell to $48.05 on May 23, 2005 -- to $53.30.

CBOT-SOYBEANS
- January down 41 cents at $8.56. Soy down 4 percent and January hit a 3-1/2-week low on spillover pressure from falling stock markets and drop in crude oil. Fears of a deep global recession that would trim demand for soy weighing on market.

Argentina estimates 2008/09 soy plantings at a record 18 million hectares, up from 16.6 million year ago.

CBOT-SOYOIL - December down 1.34 cent at 30.63 cents per lb. Falling crude oil and stock markets weigh, in addition to spillover pressure from lower soybeans.

FCPO-JAKARTA/KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures inched lower on Thursday, pressured by faltering crude oil prices on fears of slowing demand, traders said.

News of stronger exports for Nov. 1 to 20 failed to reassure the market as the increase is seen as too small to substantially reduce stock levels, traders said.
But prospects of a possible drawdown in palm oil inventories as bad weather hits production from December curbed losses later on in the session.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended down 12 ringgit, or 0.8 percent, at 1,468 ringgit ($405) per tonne after going as low as 1,428 ringgit.

REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets touched 3-week lows on Thursday as mounting global recession fears fuelled sell-offs in regional blue chips and political strife plagued Thai shares.

Thailand's main index <.SETI> fell 3.59 percent, its lowest level since Oct. 29. Singapore shares <.FTSTI> dropped 3.1 percent to its lowest point since Oct. 28, with banking shares topping the loss column.

Philippine shares <.PSI> lost 3.5 percent. Jakarta shares <.JKSE> fell for a fourth day to close down 2.15 percent. Malaysian shares <.KLSE> extended their losses for a third day, ending down 1.4 percent.

DJI Daily: new low


DJI plunged with another triple digit losses with created another new low. As for now, we look at the support at 7460-7416 (low since 10/6/2002) followed by 7197. While, resistance is at 8571-8637.

FKLI Daily: more downside room


Market comes to the end of its sideways move following prices violated the immediate support at 863 level and gives more room to downside potential. As for now, we look at the immediate support at 843-839.5 followed by 827.5. For upside, immediate resistance is at 859.5-868 (gap left over yesterday) followed by 891-895.5.

KLSE Daily: fail to hold ground


Market failed to hold ground following prices violated the immediate support at 868-867. Looks more room to downside potential with downside support is now looking at 850-848 followed by 837. While, upside resistance is at 869-876 (gap left over yesterday)followed by 884.

FCPO Daily: range bound trading


Range trading continue with immediate support is at 1400-1390 followed by 1331. While, immediate resistance is at 1505-1520 followed by 1563-1571 level.

Trader's Comment: CPO futures recouped some of its earlier losses on better export data to ends off low

CPO futures recouped some of its earlier losses on better export data to ends off low. Initially, Benchmark Feb09 opened RM38 lower at 1441 tracking overnight lower crude oil in NYMEX and easier rival soy oil in CBOT. Prices slid to hit intra day low at 1428 and hovered mostly between 1435 to 1450 through out most of the session. Basically, market was supported by better 1-20 export numbers released by both private cargo surveyors. News that Malaysia palm oil stocks may decline due to bad weather, coupled with government’s move to push for more bio-diesel and replanting scheme had prompted short covering activities emerged in late trading. This sent prices rebounding to settle at intra day high at 1468.