JAKARTA, May 29 - Malaysian crude palm oil futures may hit the $830 level by year end on the back of a stronger crude oil price and China's stockpiling of oilseeds, top industry analyst James Fry said on Friday.
"If you believe that energy prices will go on rising to $70 per barrel in six months' time, CPO prices will reach $830 by year end," Fry, who is chairman of London-based commodities consultancy LMC International, told a conference Jakarta.
In the worst-case scenario, the palm oil price may fall to $580 in six months' time -- down about 20 percent from the current level of around $720 -- if Brent crude prices fall back to $45 per barrel, he said.
Crude oil prices give some direction to palm oil prices as rival vegetable oils like soyoil and rapeseed oil are increasingly diverted into the biodiesel sector in Europe and the United States, leaving palm oil to satisfy much of the demand for food.
Friday, May 29, 2009
Breaking News-RTRS-UPDATE 1-Palm futures may hit 3,000 rgt on crude oil-Fry
JAKARTA, May 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil futures may hit 3,000 ringgit if crude oil markets continue to rise, top industry analyst James Fry said on Thursday, although he declined to give a timeframe.
"I myself would say the price will be 3,000 ringgit but it depends on crude oil, not vegetable oil," Fry, chairman of London-based commodities consultancy LMC International, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in the Indonesian capital.
"I myself would say the price will be 3,000 ringgit but it depends on crude oil, not vegetable oil," Fry, chairman of London-based commodities consultancy LMC International, told reporters on the sidelines of a conference in the Indonesian capital.
Breaking News-RTRS-ANALYSIS-U.S. soybeans jump past $12 on tight stocks
CHICAGO, May 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. soybean market set an eight-month high above $12 a bushel on Wednesday, fueled by the outlook for soy stocks in the world's largest exporter to shrink to a 32-year low if demand stays hot through August.
"In a nutshell, there is a legitimate concern about whether or not the U.S. is going to have sufficient supplies at the end of the marketing year," said Rich Feltes, senior vice president at MF Global Research.
The U.S. Agriculture Department this month forecast U.S. soy stockpiles will fall to 130 million bushels by the end of the 2008/09 marketing year on August 31 -- a 15-day supply and smallest since August 1994 when they dipped to 112 million.
"In a nutshell, there is a legitimate concern about whether or not the U.S. is going to have sufficient supplies at the end of the marketing year," said Rich Feltes, senior vice president at MF Global Research.
The U.S. Agriculture Department this month forecast U.S. soy stockpiles will fall to 130 million bushels by the end of the 2008/09 marketing year on August 31 -- a 15-day supply and smallest since August 1994 when they dipped to 112 million.
Trader's Highlight
DJI-NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks climbed more than 1 percent on Thursday as higher oil prices drove up energy shares and falling yields in the bond market eased concerns that higher borrowing costs would hinder economic recovery.
"We had the OPEC meeting today, plus we had inventory numbers, and both were favorable for oil. That's helping that whole sector," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of U.S. Equity Group at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in New York. OPEC decided to hold production at current levels.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 103.78 points, or 1.25 percent, to finish at 8,403.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 13.77 points, or 1.54 percent, at 906.83. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 20.71 points, or 1.20 percent, at 1,751.79.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended Thursday above $65 a barrel, the highest settlement since early November, after government data showed a steep drop in oil inventories last week.
Traders also factored in better-than-expected economic data and OPEC's decision to hold production at current levels.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude settled up $1.63, or 2.57 percent, at $65.08 a barrel, the highest close since $65.30 on Nov. 5. It traded from $62.75 to $65.44, the highest intraday price since $65.56 on Nov. 10.
CBOT-SOYBEANS - July down 8 cents per bushel at $11.79.
Profit-taking after rally to eight-month high on tight stocks of soy and fund buying.
There was talk that China may have canceled one to three cargoes of U.S. soybeans out of the Gulf.
Census pegs U.S. April soy crush 140.56 million bushels, below estimates for 141.2 million.
CBOT-SOYOIL - July unchanged at 37.81. Support from higher crude oil but pressure from lower soy.
Census pegs U.S. soyoil stocks at end of April 3.134 bln lbs, below estimates for 3.166 bln lbs.
FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, May 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures ended unchanged on Thursday as some buyers took some positions after a key industry analyst predicted that prices of the vegetable oil could reach 3,000 ringgit if the crude oil market strengthened.
The benchmark August contract on Bursa Malaysia's Derivatives Exchange ended flat at 2,505 ringgit per tonne (after going as low as 2,440 ringgit). Overallvolume climbed to 12,897 lots of 25 tonnes each from 10,000 lots.
REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, May 28 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stocks eased
on Thursday, as investors worried about the U.S. economic recovery, profit takers swooped on Singapore's CapitaLand and Malaysia fell for a third day on a bearish GDP outlook.
Asian shares came off a seven-month high as concerns grew that rising U.S. government debt yields could push up borrowing costs and choke off a potential recovery in the world's largest economy.
Malaysia's index <.KLSE> fell for a third day, ending down 0.6 percent, after Prime Minister Najib Razak said the domestic economy would shrink by as much as 5 percent in 2009, its biggest fall in a decade.
Thailand's benchmark SET index <.SETI> ended unchanged, while Vietnam <.VNI> lost 2.3 percent. Indonesia's index <.JKSE> added 0.5 percent after a 1.9 percent gain on Wednesday.
"We had the OPEC meeting today, plus we had inventory numbers, and both were favorable for oil. That's helping that whole sector," said Owen Fitzpatrick, head of U.S. Equity Group at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management in New York. OPEC decided to hold production at current levels.
The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> gained 103.78 points, or 1.25 percent, to finish at 8,403.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was up 13.77 points, or 1.54 percent, at 906.83. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 20.71 points, or 1.20 percent, at 1,751.79.
NYMEX-NEW YORK, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures ended Thursday above $65 a barrel, the highest settlement since early November, after government data showed a steep drop in oil inventories last week.
Traders also factored in better-than-expected economic data and OPEC's decision to hold production at current levels.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude
CBOT-SOYBEANS - July
Profit-taking after rally to eight-month high on tight stocks of soy and fund buying.
There was talk that China may have canceled one to three cargoes of U.S. soybeans out of the Gulf.
Census pegs U.S. April soy crush 140.56 million bushels, below estimates for 141.2 million.
CBOT-SOYOIL - July
Census pegs U.S. soyoil stocks at end of April 3.134 bln lbs, below estimates for 3.166 bln lbs.
FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, May 28 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm futures ended unchanged on Thursday as some buyers took some positions after a key industry analyst predicted that prices of the vegetable oil could reach 3,000 ringgit if the crude oil market strengthened.
The benchmark August contract
REGIONAL EQUITIES-BANGKOK, May 28 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stocks eased
on Thursday, as investors worried about the U.S. economic recovery, profit takers swooped on Singapore's CapitaLand and Malaysia fell for a third day on a bearish GDP outlook.
Asian shares came off a seven-month high as concerns grew that rising U.S. government debt yields could push up borrowing costs and choke off a potential recovery in the world's largest economy.
Malaysia's index <.KLSE> fell for a third day, ending down 0.6 percent, after Prime Minister Najib Razak said the domestic economy would shrink by as much as 5 percent in 2009, its biggest fall in a decade.
Thailand's benchmark SET index <.SETI> ended unchanged, while Vietnam <.VNI> lost 2.3 percent. Indonesia's index <.JKSE> added 0.5 percent after a 1.9 percent gain on Wednesday.
DJI Daily: in Yo-Yo manner
Market one day up and one day down moving in a yo-yo manner. So far, nothing much changed on the immediate technical landscape. Resistance maintains at 8600 followed by 8800-9000. Downside support is pegged at 8000-7800
KLSE Daily: Uptrend still intact
Uptrend remains intact. We are now looking for the immediate upside resistance at 1044-1047 (gap left over on 28/5/2009)followed by 1060. To the downside, immediate support is stood at 1030-1025.
FKLI Daily: Bull took a breathe
Market violated the support at 1040-1035 however, the overall technical landscape remains positive. We continue to look for the upside resistance at 1045.5-1047 (gap left over on 28/5/2009)followed by 1056.5. Downside support is at 1030-1025..
FCPO Daily: Directionless
Market was directionless as doji appeared after prices close unchanged. We are waiting for a significant breakout either of 2350 or 2799 level. As for now, we are looking for the immediate upside resistance at 2530-2560 followed by 2600. To the downside, support is pegged at 2422 followed by 2350.
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