Wednesday, April 10, 2013

RTRS - Indian soymeal exports to Iran surge this year- Oil World


HAMBURG, April 9 (Reuters) - Indian soymeal exports to Iran have risen sharply in early 2013 despite trade sanctions and high Indian prices, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“India has become the key supplier of soymeal for Iran owing to the western sanctions,” Oil World said.
India exported 142,000 tonnes of the animal feed to Iran in March against only 40,000 tonnes in March 2012, Oil World said. This followed a sharp rise in February exports to Iran.

India’s October 2012 to March 2013 soymeal exports to Iran shot up to 430,000 tonnes from only 76,000 tonnes in the same period the year before, Oil World said.

The United States and European Union have toughened trade sanctions, meant to discourage Tehran's disputed nuclear programme, which they say has a military purpose. Iran rejects these allegations and says its atomic work is peaceful.

The sanctions do not target food shipments, but financial measures have frozen Iranian firms out of much of the global banking system, complicating payments for imports on which Iran relies for much of its food and animal feed.

“Iran was again and by far the largest destination for Indian soymeal in March,” Oil World said.
It is believed another 200,000 tonnes of Indian soymeal is scheduled for export to Iran in April, for which Iran will pay with revenues from crude oil sales, it said.

India has been paying for Iranian crude oil imports in rupees, which can in turn be used by Iran to buy Indian commodities including rice and soymeal.

Iran is buying more soymeal despite a rise in Indian prices to levels sharply above those of rival South American producers, which has cut demand for Indian soymeal from other potential buyers, Oil World said.

“Demand for Indian soymeal slowed down pronouncedly in recent weeks as a result of widening price premiums over South American origin, to which most importers have shifted in the meantime,” it said.

“The export price of soymeal in India climbed further to $585 a tonne on April 4, about $150-$160 (a tonne) above prices in Brazil,” it said.

RTRS - Bad weather threatening Argentine soybean crop -Oil World


HAMBURG, April 9 (Reuters) - Concern is rising that Argentina’s new soybean harvest now being gathered may be reduced by the double blow of heavy rains following drought, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“Soybean prospects have deteriorated,” Oil World said. “There is currently a wide range of (crop) estimates between 48 and 52 million tonnes, but we expect that the high end of the range will soon be reduced owing to confirmation of crop losses in the north from drought and losses in central and southern Argentina following the recent substantial rainfall and flooding.”

Argentina harvested 39.7 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2012. Oil World still forecasts Argentina’s 2013 soybean crop at 48.5 million tonnes.

Heavy rains interrupted soybean harvesting in Argentina's south and central grains belt over the past week, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said on Thursday.

Large Argentine and Brazilian soybean crops now being harvested are urgently needed by global consumers following tight supplies in past months following a poor U.S. harvest in 2012 and record high soybean prices in September last year.

But South American new crop exports are still being hampered by transport and port loading problems, despite hopes that larger shipments were on the way, Oil World said.

“The volumes of new crop soybeans and products from South America are still insufficient to satisfy world demand, primarily owing to the logistical bottlenecks in Brazil,” Oil World said.

This is reflected in “surprisingly large” weekly U.S. export sales of 392,700 tonnes reported on Apr. 4, it said. 

“Importers obviously need (U.S. soybeans) to offset part of the export delays in South America,” Oil World said.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks advanced on Tuesday, with the Dow closing at a record high on a rally in cyclical shares and as earnings season started to heat up.

With the day's advance, the S&P 500 again neared its all-time intraday high of 1,576.09, recovering from steep losses last week, the index's worst of 2013.

The return to near-record levels indicates that investors are again using market declines as buying opportunities. The top sectors of the day, technology and energy, are groups that are closely tied to the pace of economic growth.

"It's encouraging that we're seeing cyclical sectors lead the rally. It's a healthy sign - investors believe the market can continue to run higher," said Joseph Tanious, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds in New York.

The Dow Jones industrial average  advanced 59.98 points, or 0.41 percent, to 14,673.46, a record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 5.54 points, or 0.35 percent, to 1,568.61. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 15.61 points, or 0.48 percent, to close at 3,237.86.

Stocks also got a boost from a promising start to the earnings season. While only 5 percent of S&P 500 companies have reported results so far, almost three-quarters of them have topped expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data. Still, profits are seen rising just 1.5 percent from a year-ago quarter, down from estimates in January for growth of 4.3 percent.

"Expectations have gotten managed down to the point where we could more easily see companies beat expectations, making it easier for us to pop," said Kristen Scarpa, a New York-based investment strategist at Barclays, which has a year-end target of 1,595 for the S&P 500.


Oils - NEW YORK, April 9 (Reuters) - Brent crude oil futures rose on Tuesday, posting their biggest gain since late December as a weak dollar and tame Chinese inflation data drew investors to commodities.

U.S. crude oil prices also rose, reaching $94.48 during the session and briefly exceeding the 50-day moving average of$94.44, a technical level closely monitored by chart-watching analysts and traders.

But Brent prices rose more sharply, allowing its premium over U.S. crude to widen past $12, a day after it narrowed to just over $11, the lowest level since June.

"The spread had narrowed considerably over the past few weeks, so we have some unwinding of that spread," said Stephen Schork, the editor of commodity newsletter The Schork Report.

"That, coupled with the selloff in the dollar, was pushing money into the oil market," Schork said.
The euro rose to $1.31, its highest since mid-March, making dollar-denom`inated commodities more affordable for holders of euros.

Chinese government data showed inflation slowing. This eased concerns the Chinese central bank would tighten monetary policy.

"The idea that central banks are going to continue in their monetary policies and we’ll see liquidity continue to expand makes commodities an attractive investment, and that’s providing support for oil prices," said Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

Brent May crude closed at $106.23 per barrel, up $1.57. During the session it fell as low as $104.27, not far from the lowest price since July, the previous session's low point of $103.40.

U.S. May crude closed at $94.20 a barrel, up 84 cents. It touched a session low of $92.86.
The spread between Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $12.03 a barrel, widening from $11.30 at the previous session's close.


CBOT SoybeanSoybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, rebounding off a 10-month low set last week as firm cash markets lifted nearby contracts, traders said.

·         The May/July soybean spread peaked at 27 cents,   premium May, its biggest inverse in 6-1/2 months.

·         Traders adjusted positions a day ahead of USDA's monthly supply/demand reports. The average estimate of U.S. 2012/13 soy ending stocks, among analysts surveyed by Reuters, was 136 million bushels, up 9 percent from USDA's March figure of 125 million, but some traders covered short positions, wary of a  smaller-than-expected figure. 
 
·         Bull-spreading noted in soymeal but slowing export demand    for U.S. soymeal limits gains.

 
·         Fears subside about bird flu hurting feed demand in China;  Dalian September soymeal futuresclose higher, halting a  five-session slide.
 
·         Brazil's government supply agency, Conab, lowered its   estimate of the country's 2012/13 soybean harvest to 81.9 million tonnes, from 82.1 million in March. 
 
·         A double-blow of heavy rains following drought has lowered    soy production prospects in Argentina, Hamburg-based oilseeds  analysts Oil World said. 

·         Indian soymeal exports to Iran have risen sharply in early  2013 despite trade sanctions and high Indian prices - Oil World.


BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, April 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended slightly lower after hitting a near two-week high on Tuesday as fears over the bird flu outbreak in China and its impact on soybean prices outweighed hopes for lower palm inventory in the Southeast Asian nation, the world's No.2 producer.

Industry regulator, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), will on Wednesday report stock levels for March, with a Reuters poll predicting a drop to 2.35 million tonnes from 2.44 million in February.

"The rise in Dalian palm and soy and also the overnight gain in U.S. soy are helping the rally, while traders are also positioning ahead of MPOB data," said Ker Chung Yang, investment analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"But the rise may be capped due to the bird flu situation in China."

Traders are keeping a close watch on the development of a new strain of bird flu in China, fearing that it could cut demand for soy used in animal feed in the world's top importer of the bean, although the World Health Organization said it was no cause for panic.

Soyoil is a close competitor of palm oil and a fall in soy prices could wean away demand from palm.
The benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed 0.2 percent lower at 2,395 ringgit ($789) per tonne. Prices earlier touched a high of 2,419 ringgit, a level last seen on March 28.

Total traded volumes stood at 29,311 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the average 35,000 lots seen so far this year.

Market participants are also looking out for Malaysian palm export data for the first 10 days of April, due on Wednesday. Shipments edged slightly higher for March, the first increase in four months, thanks to higher demand for refined products. 

In other markets, Brent crude oil rose above $105 per barrel on Tuesday, rallying from an eight-month low after China's inflation slowed, giving it room to keep monetary policy easy and support oil demand in the world's second-biggest consumer.

In vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery  inched up 0.1 percent in late Asian trade. The most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange closed 0.5 percent higher.


Regional Equities - April 9 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks ended firmer on Tuesday with Malaysia edging up to a three-month high as a solid start to the United States earnings season helped boost investor sentiment.

Malaysia edged up 0.1 percent to hit a near three-month closing high with a $36.53 million foreign inflow.

Singapore .gained 0.4 percent, led by a 1.4 percent rise in Southeast Asia's largest telecom operator Singapore Telecommunications Ltd

An increase in quarterly profit of Alcoa Inc helped boost sentiment, easing concerns about U.S. corporate results in the first three months of 2013.

Indonesian stocks  edged up 0.04 percent, recovering from their two-week lows.

Nomura Equity Research said on Tuesday a correction is likely in Indonesian stocks in the second quarter of 2013 following an expected softness in first quarter earnings due to cost and competition pressures.

Vietnam, the region's best performer so far this year, gained 0.8 percent as funds added blue chips.
Bucking the trend, Thailand stock market ended 1.3 percent weaker, but the head of its bourse said buying would return after Songkran holiday from April 13-16.

"Investors should not be too concerned with the market weakness. After Songkran holiday, I expect investors to resume buying again," The stock exchange of Thailand president Charamporn Jotikasthira told reporters on Tuesday.