Friday, February 8, 2013

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks declined on Thursday, taking a step back from their recent advance, prompted by comments by the ECB president on the euro and Europe's outlook.

The euro currency dropped against the safe-haven dollar and yen, spurring a retreat from risky assets such as stocks, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the exchange rate was important to growth and price stability. Investors took that as a sign the bank is concerned about the euro's advance and its effect on the region's economy.

Growth sectors were among the weakest performers on the S&P 500: the S&P 500 materials index  was down 0.6 percent while the S&P energy index was down 0.5 percent. Housing stocks also declined, with a housing sector index off 1.4 percent.

Despite the day's decline and weakness earlier this week, the stock market has been in an almost uninterrupted up trend for most of the year, with the S&P 500 up 5.8 percent so far for 2013.
Many analysts say some weakness at this point is no surprise.

"Given the amount the market moved in January, having a little bit of a pullback and some consolidation where the market goes sideways for a little while, we think would be a healthy sign," said Eric Marshall, director of research at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas.

Top U.S. retailers reported strong January sales after offering compelling merchandise that drew in shoppers facing a hit to their take-home pay from higher payroll taxes.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 42.47 points, or 0.30 percent, at 13,944.05. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 2.73 points, or 0.18 percent, at 1,509.39. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 3.34 points, or 0.11 percent, at 3,165.13.

Though the earnings season is winding down, results continue to boost growth estimates for the fourth quarter. According to Thomson Reuters data through Thursday morning, of 317 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings, 69 percent have exceeded analysts' expectations, above a 62 percent average since 1994 and 65 percent over the past four quarters.

Economic data was mixed. Initial jobless claims dipped last week, with the four-week moving average falling to its lowest level since March 2008, signaling the economy continues to recover slowly.

A separate report said fourth-quarter productivity registered its biggest drop in nearly two years, while unit labor costs jumped 4.5 percent, more than economists expected. 

Roughly 6.6 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the 2012 average daily closing volume of about 6.45 billion.

NYMEX - SINGAPORE Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude steadied near $97 per barrel on Thursday as investors took a breather after the past few weeks of gains, ahead of a European Central Bank meeting later in the day and China's trade numbers due on Friday.

CBOT Soybean -  Nearby soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade edged lower on Thursday as spillover weakness from corn and positioning ahead of a monthly U.S. government crop report offset support from strong weekly soybean export sales, traders said. 

·         Market pressured by expectations of a massive Brazilian soy harvest. Brazil's government supply agency, Conab, raised  its estimate of the country's soybean crop to a record 83.4  million tonnes, from 82.7 million in January. 

·         Argentina's 2012/13 soy harvest is seen at 50 million  tonnes, below some initial expectations due to dry weather, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its first output forecast. The figure is below USDA's current Argentina forecast of 54 million tonnes.

·         USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 1.667 million tonnes, above a range of trade estimates for 900,000 to 1.3 million. The figure included 896,100 tonnes of old-crop sales, also above expectations.

·         USDA reported weekly soymeal sales at 196,300 tonnes, above estimates for 75,000 to 175,000, and soyoil sales a  25,600 tonnes, within expectations for 10,000 to 30,000 tonnes.

·         Trade expects USDA to lower its forecast of U.S. 2012/13 soybean ending stocks in a monthly supply/demand report due out Friday. 


SINGAPORE, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Thursday, as investors expect a marginal drop in January stocks, although cautious sentiment ahead of the upcoming long holiday capped gains.

Lower production is likely to have helped Malaysian palm oil stocks ease in January from a record high in the previous month, a Reuters survey of five plantation companies showed on Thursday.

Inventory levels most likely dropped 2.9 percent to 2.55 million tonnes in January from December's all-time high, the first decline since last June, according to the survey.

Stronger export demand seen in the last week of January may have helped cut stocks and the trend could persist, given palm oil's attractive discount to soybean oil and as worries eased over China's stricter quality regulation.

"Stocks are expected to drop, due to exports picking up towards end-January," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

At the close, the benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had gained 0.2 percent to 2,552 ringgit ($826) per tonne. Prices were rangebound between 2,530 and 2,567 ringgit.

Total traded volumes stood at 30,443 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the average 25,000 tonnes.

The Malaysian financial markets will be closed next Monday and Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday. Industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release January inventory and output data after the market resumes trading on Wednesday.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance will issue export data for Feb. 1-10 also on Wednesday.

The market will be looking for trading direction from Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture monthly supply and demand reports, which may be bullish for palm oil due to tighter soybean stocks.

In other markets, oil rose above $117 a barrel on Thursday as traders awaited word from the European Central Bank that could confirm speculation the region's troubled economy was turning a corner.

In competing vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for March delivery eased 0.5 percent in late Asian trade. The most active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange hit a one-week low.

Regional Equities - BANGKOK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets eked out slim gains on Thursday as investors awaited the European Central Bank's policy meeting due later in the day, with Thai stocks recouping most early losses, led by gains in Advanced Info Service.

Bangkok's SET index closed at 1,499.81, down 0.04 percent, rebounding from its day low of 1,482.64. Telecommunications company Advanced Info Service Pcl rose 3 percent after it reported a 131 percent increase in quarterly earnings and set a higher-than-expected dividend.

UBS Investment Research told a press briefing the strength of domestic consumption remained supportive to Thai stock market, with its end-year SET index target set at 1,530 and energy, real estate and telecoms among its 'overweight' lists.

"Consumer credit as a percentage of household income stands at 47 percent; we believe 60 percent could be reached by 2015/16, at which point the Bank of Thailand could reign in credit," the broker said in a report.

Weak earnings weighed on broader market in Singapore, with the Straits Times Index  down 0.45 percent at 3261.77, weighed by a fall in CapitaMalls Asia Ltd  shares, following weak quarterly earnings.

Foreign investors sold Thai shares worth a net 3.04 billion baht ($102.15 million) and offloaded a net 33.07 million ringgit ($10.67 million) worth of Malaysian shares, stock exchange data showed.