Friday, March 22, 2013

RTRS - Palm oil to draw support from lower stocks, output -Mistry


SINGAPORE, March 22 (Reuters) - Palm oil futures could rise to 2,400 to 2,700 ringgit ($770 to $865) per tonne by the end of May, as weaker production speeds a fall in stockpiles, leading analyst Dorab Mistry said on Friday.

The forecast is an upward revision of his earlier prediction for prices to fall below 2,200 ringgit between April and the end of June, as crude palm oil yields have fallen more than expected.

"I am projecting today that Malaysian stocks will dip below 2 million tonnes in June 2013. Indonesian stocks will also be drawn down below 4 million tonnes," Mistry said in a speech to be delivered at an industry seminar in Beijing.

Palm stocks in Malaysia, the second largest producer of the commodity, stood at 2.44 million tonnes at the end of February. While top producer Indonesia does not publish official stocks data, Mistry pegged its stocks at close to 5 million tonnes in early March.

A weaker ringgit ahead of the Malaysian elections, which have to be called by the end of April, could also offer greater scope for the ringgit-denominated futures to rise as the commodity becomes cheaper for overseas buyers, added Mistry, who is the head of vegetable oil trading with Indian conglomerate Godrej Industries 

But prices will still come under pressure after June, Mistry said, and especially once the low production cycle ends in the August-September period.

With energy prices on a decline, futures may fall to 2,000 ringgit, or even lower, after August.
"I do not expect them to break 1,800 ringgit unless Brent crude oil trades below $80 per barrel," he said, sticking to a prediction he made in Kuala Lumpur this month. 

RTRS -- Brazil port strike called off, flexible on reform -union


SAO PAULO, March 21 (Reuters) - Brazilian dock workers called off a national port strike set for next week and said they are willing to relax rules that allow unions to control labor assignments at terminals, following talks with the government over reform of the country's ports, union leaders said on Thursday.

Progress in talks between the unions and government will help relieve some pressure building on the global soy and sugar markets, which have been fixating on concerns that Brazil's underdeveloped port infrastructure might grind to a hault under the weight of record crops this season.

Port workers have interrupted the flow of commodities such as soy, corn, coffee, sugar and meats through Brazilian ports over the past few months with occasional six- to 24-hour strikes, hoping to pressure the government to negotiate its reforms.

The timing is delicate. Brazil is in the peak of its grain export season and about to pick up its sugar exports in the coming months. Port worker unions were planning a new strike on Monday but called it off after progress in talks with government negotiators.

Dock workers fear the government's proposed overhaul of Brazil's 1993 port regulations would lead to a loss in jobs and benefits because private operators would not have to hire through a public, centralized agency, known as "OGMO."

The government says the planned changes for ports are critical for attracting billions of dollars in private investment. Brazil could surpass the United States in soybean production exports soon, but lacks the infrastructure to ensure smooth delivery.

Even without strikes, top buyers have paid premiums for scarce U.S. soybeans because they are afraid of delays in Brazil, due to growing lines of trucks hauling grain and sugar.

Trader's highlight

DJI - NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday as Oracle's revenue fell far short of expectations and worries intensified about the effect of Cyprus' troubles on the euro zone.

Oracle Corp shares lost 9.7 percent to $32.30 and were the biggest drag on Nasdaq, a day after its revenue disappointment, which it blamed on sales execution.  It was the stock's biggest percentage drop since December 2011.

Stock losses accelerated late in the session as anxiety about Cypriot finances increased. Just before the U.S. market's close, Standard & Poor's cut Cyprus' sovereign credit rating deeper into junk status.

The European Union gave Cyprus until Monday to raise the billions of euros it needs to get an international bailout - or face the collapse of its financial system and likely exit from the euro bloc.

"I think the realization is, there isn't going to be a quick remedy to the situation, nor is it easy to forecast what's going to happen. Uncertainty breeds selling, especially in a market that's gone as far as we have in the previous two weeks," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.

The latest euro-zone concerns hit the market after weeks of gains that drove the Dow up to break record highs and lifted the S&P 500 to within striking distance of its all-time record close of 1,565.15.

Investors fear a collapse of the banking system in Cyprus will tighten credit across Europe and become yet another hurdle on the region's bumpy road out of economic crisis. Adding to those fears, data showed the region's economy contracted more than expected in March.

The Dow Jones industrial average  slid 90.24 points, or 0.62 percent, to end at 14,421.49. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 12.91 points, or 0.83 percent, to finish at 1,545.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index  lost 31.59 points, or 0.97 percent, to close at 3,222.60.


Oils - NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices fell more than 1 percent on Thursday as Cyprus struggled to raise enough money to qualify for a bailout and avoid a banking collapse, reviving worries about the outlook for petroleum demand in Europe.

The European Union has given Cyprus, the debt-laden Mediterranean island, until Monday to raise billions of euros it needs to receive an international bailout or face the collapse of its financial system and likely exit from the euro currency zone.

"Definitely, the euro zone factors are weighing on crude," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Adding to concerns about Europe, the euro zone's economic downturn has deepened in March - even before the Cyprus crisis became acute - data from survey compiler Markit showed.

The problems in Europe and the precarious situation in Cyprus countered support from more positive economic data from the United States, where existing home sales and leading economic indicators rose last month.

Brent May crude fell $1.25, or 1.15 percent, to settle at $107.47 a barrel, having traded as low as $107.08.

U.S. May crude fell $1.05, or 1.12 percent, to settle at $92.45 a barrel, after falling as low as $91.84. The U.S. April crude contract expired and went off the board on Wednesday.

Brent's premium to U.S. crude fell as low as $14.61 during the session, before ending at $15.02 based on the contract settlements and narrowing the spread by 20 cents.

MIXED GLOBAL ECONOMIC DATA
Flash euro-zone manufacturing data showed unexpected declines in March, driven by surprise weakness in the German and especially French purchasing managers' indices (PMI).

Most responses in Markit's business survey were received before Cyprus pushed the 17-nation currency bloc into fresh turmoil and analysts said respondents may now be even more gloomy.

The Flash Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 46.5 in March, lower than all forecasts in a Reuters poll of 23 economists.

More supportive U.S. data released later in the session did little to improve investor sentiment.

The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits edged higher last week, but a trend reading dropped to its lowest in five years.

Business conditions in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region rose to the highest level since September, according to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and U.S. housing market data also pointed to a recovery.

Chinese data also was viewed as supportive to oil futures, as better-than-expected manufacturing figures pointed to an improved fuel demand outlook in the world's second-largest oil consumer.

"The Chinese data is better than expected but it's not extraordinary," said Olivier Jakob, oil analyst at Petromatrix in Zug. "Crude oil imports in China for the first two months were lower than last year."

In China, the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index for March revived to 51.7 in March from 50.4 in February, but remained below a two-year high of 52.3 reached at the beginning of the year.

The reading is consistent with year-on-year GDP growth of around 8 percent, according to a Credit Agricole-CIB analyst, above the 7.5 percent GDP growth target for 2013 released at China's annual legislative session this month.


CBOT Soybean -  Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 2 percent, their biggest daily gain in a month, on technical buying and concerns about tight U.S. stocks, traders said.

* The benchmark May soybean contract broke through its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, triggering chart-based buying.
 
·         Uncertainty about U.S. old-crop soybean supplies ahead of USDA's March 28 quarterly U.S. grain stocks report lent support.

·         Gains in deferred soybean contracts capped by expectations   for expanded U.S. soy plantings in 2013. A Farm Futures Magazine survey pegged U.S. 2013 seedings at a record 79.09 million  acres.  
 
·         Soyoil futures supported by firming U.S. cash soyoil   market amid a slowing U.S. soy crush and continued demand from    biodiesel producers.  
 
·         USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 107,800 tonnes for 2012/13 and 234,100 tonnes for   2013/14, below trade expectations.
  
·         USDA put soymeal sales at 143,400 tonnes and soyoil sales  at 19,600 tonnes, both above trade expectations.
  
·         Brazilian dock workers called off a national port strike set for next week, following talks with the government over  reform of the country's ports, union leaders said.

·         Argentina's agriculture ministry estimated the country's 2012/13 soybean crop at 51.3 million tonnes, slightly below USDA's figure of 51.5 million


ARGENTINA Soybean - BUENOS AIRES, March 21 (Reuters) - Argentina's closing soy prices and trends on Thursday:
  • In the main grains market of Rosario, soy closed mostly higher at 1,620 to 1,700 pesos ($318-$333) per tonne, compared with Wednesday's 1,640 pesos, buoyed by gains in U.S. soy futures and strong demand from local crushers, traders said.
  • Trade volume was about 30,000 tonnes versus 15,000 tonnes in the prior session.
  • Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 2 percent on Thursday, their biggest daily gain in a month, on technical buying and concerns about tight U.S. stocks, traders said.
  • Rosario soy for delivery in May, which is quoted in U.S. dollars, closed up $10 at $325 per tonne.
  • In the southern port of Bahia Blanca, where no official price was listed on Wednesday, soy ended at 1,600 pesos per tonne.
Argentina has approved another 2 million tonnes of 2012-13 corn exports, a leading grains industry group said on Thursday, in news that boosted late spot trading in corn in Rosario. 


BMD CPO - KUALA LUMPUR, March 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended off their highest in more than three weeks on Thursday after refiners took advantage of a cheap local tax rate to boost crude palm oil purchases.

Crude palm oil from No.2 producer Malaysia is currently cheaper than products from top producer Indonesia, thanks to an export tax levied at 4.5 percent, compared with Indonesia's 10.5 percent.

Malaysian palm oil exports rose by up to 14 percent in the first 20 days of March, but investors are wary that rising prices could lead to a tax hike in May and weigh on demand. Malaysia sets its export tax on crude palm oil each month based on prices. April's tax rate has been set at 4.5 percent.

Investors are also concerned that an import duty hike in India, the world's biggest edible oil buyer, will crimp future demand, traders said.

"Although the demand continues to show signs of struggling, the increase in crude palm oil buying by local refineries is suggesting for the most part everything is under control," said a trader with a local commodities broker in Malaysia.

By market close, the benchmark June contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had risen 0.5 percent to 2,455 ringgit ($787) per tonne, coming off an early high of 2,477 ringgit, a level unseen since Feb. 25.

Total traded volume stood at 39,194 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Traders say an export duty hike for the crude grade would turn buyers to refined palm products. Cargo surveyor data showed that refined palm olein exports almost doubled between March 1 and 20, offsetting weaker crude palm oil shipments and giving a leg up to overall exports.

The higher exports of palm oil products, alongside seasonally slowing output, would help to further ease inventory levels in Malaysia, which have edged down to 2.44 million tonnes in February from December's record highs.

In other markets, crude oil was pushed lower on Thursday by fears of further turmoil in the euro zone, as Cyprus scrambled to avoid bankruptcy, and by manufacturing data which showed a deepening downturn in the currency bloc.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery rose 0.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange also closed 0.8 percent higher.


Regional Equities - March 21 (Reuters) - Philippines and Singapore stocks recovered on Thursday helped by a pick-up in Chinese factory activity and a commitment by the U.S. Federal Reserve to its aggressive stimulus stance, but others ended weaker weighed down by a Cyprus bailout plan.

Singapore gained 0.6 percent, recovering from the previous session's two week closing low, led by a 3.5 percent jump in Singapore Telecommunications Ltd and 0.8 percent rise in top lender DBS Group Holdings Ltd 

The Philippines stock index ended 0.8 percent firmer, snapping an eight-session falling streak led by a 3.2 percent gain in Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co

Vietnam , the region's best performer as well as its smallest bourse, gained 1 percent to a one-month high on hopes of an interest rate cut in the near future after the country's two largest cities reported falling consumer prices. 

Thailand ended 0.9 percent weaker led by banks, extending the loss to 4.4 percent this week, a day after Thai baht hit a 16-year high. Krung Thai Bank PCL, which fell 6.4 percent, dragged the overall index.

Indonesia ended 0.6 percent weaker led by financials, while Malaysia edged down 0.05 percent, despite a $19.44 million foreign inflow.