Monday, October 15, 2012

Trader's Highlight


DJI- NEW YORKOct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks slipped on Friday as investors fretted over what is expected to be a weak corporate earnings season, while gains in the euro were checked by uncertainty over whether and when Spain would request help with its finances.

Investors failed to be cheered even by data showing Americans were the most upbeat they have been in five years, as well as record quarterly profits at JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. As a result, U.S. stocks posted their worst weekly decline since June.

"There's a lot of trepidation about earnings season," said Randy Warren, chief investment officer of Warren Financial Service in Exton, Pennsylvania.

"The predictions have been for weaker earnings, and we've heard a few companies saying things are slowing down a little bit in various places, especially overseas."

Weak global demand has heightened concerns over the prospects for corporate earnings growth. As a group, S&P 500 companies' quarterly earnings are expected to fall 3 percent from a year ago, according to Thomson Reuters data, marking the first decline in three years.

"Investors have been focusing on supportive central bank polices to the exclusion of other things," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St Louis. "Now with earnings season, we're seeing some of those other things come back into better balance and that's not as good news for the market."

The Dow Jones industrial average ended up 2.46 points, or 0.02 percent, at 13,328.85. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dipped 4.25 points, or 0.30 percent, to 1,428.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index eased 5.30 points, or 0.17 percent, to 3,044.11.

All three indexes were down more than 2 percent for the week.

Shares of JPMorgan, which had surged before the market's open, and those of Wells Fargo were lower in afternoon trading. Bank shares were down 2.5 percent on the KBW Bank Index.

While JPMorgan's results met analysts' expectations, Wells Fargo came up weaker than expected on a key performance measure. Its shares were down 2.6 percent, while JPMorgan fell 1.1 percent.

"Bank shares as a group have had a nice move (up) this year so far," said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities in New York. "Guidance is cautious so people are taking money off the table."

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 ended down 0.5 percent. The MSCI world stock index eased 0.2 percent.

The euro rose against the dollar and yen but the currency looked likely to struggle for traction. A bailout request from indebted Spain is seen as positive for the euro as it would remove another layer of uncertainty in financial markets and activate the European Central Bank's bond-buying program, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for troubled euro zone economies.

"The latest developments do suggest that the Spanish authorities continue contemplating the possibility" (of a bailout request), said Vassili Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

"While the timing remains highly uncertain, we still believe an aid request is more likely than not," he said.
The dollar was off 0.1 percent against a basket of other major currencies.

The euro was at $1.2952, up 0.2 percent on the day. It has traded in a tight range roughly between $1.28 and $1.3170 since mid-September.

Many markets have been stuck in narrow ranges since the start of the month as investors wait to see whether Spain requests a bailout, a prerequisite for the ECB to buy its bonds.

The bloc has another opportunity to make progress with its crisis strategy when EU leaders meet in Brussels on Thursday.

Brent oil fell below $115 a barrel after a prediction of a further decline in oil consumption and higher supplies offset concerns about potential output disruptions in the Middle East.

Brent crude was down $1.09 at $114.62 a barrel, while U.S. crude settled down 21 cents at $91.86.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 03/32 in price, yielding 1.660 percent.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's index on U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 83.1 in early October from 78.3 a month earlier, its highest since September 2007.

Meanwhile, U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in September, although underlying inflation pressures were muted. 

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Friday in heavy spread trading that saw the West Texas Intermediate crude's discount to international Brent narrow after it hit a one year high earlier this week.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 1.7 percent Friday as supply fears eased due to improving South American planting weather and ideas the U.S. government might further raise its U.S. soy crop estimate, traders said.

* Soyoil and soymeal futures followed soybeans lower. The October contracts for both commodities expired quietly.
  • Additional pressure stemmed from talk of a London hedge fund that was said to be reducing its exposure in grain markets in favor of other assets.
  • Technical selling noted after November soybeans fell below the 100-day moving average near $15.45; traders eyeing key support at the Oct. 3 low of $15.04.
  • Soybeans posted a fourth straight weekly decline, falling 1.9 percent. Soymeal ended the week nearly unchanged while soyoil fell 1.7 percent, its fourth straight weekly drop.
  • Ahead of the National Oilseed Processors Association's September U.S. soy crush data on Monday, the average analyst crush estimate was 118.361 million bushels, below NOPA's August figure of 124.773 million.
  • USDA reported export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 500,700 tonnes for 2012/13 and 23,000 tonnes for 2013/14, below a range of trade estimates for 750,000 to 850,000 tonnes.
  • USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 221,400 tonnes (old and new crop years combined), below trade estimates for 250,000 to 350,000 tonnes. USDA rolled over 456,900 tonnes of sales outstanding from the 2011/12 marketing year, which ended Sept. 30, into 2012/13.
  • Weekly soyoil sales totaled 10,400 tonnes, below estimates for 20,000 to 45,000 tonnes. USDA rolled over 47,400 tonnes of sales outstanding from 2011/12 into 2012/13.
  • Malaysian palm oil futures fell after the country's government announced export tax cuts that will only take effect from Jan. 1, as traders had expected a more immediate policy.

FCPO- SINGAPOREOct 12 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Friday after the government announced tax cuts that will only take effect from Jan. 1, as traders had expected a more immediate policy.

Malaysia will cut crude palm oil (CPO) export taxes and discontinue a tax free shipment quota for the grade from Jan 1 2013, a government minister said on Friday, as the world's No.2 producer seeks to snatch back market share from top producer Indonesia.

Malaysia is also looking at setting export taxes for the crude grade on a monthly basis to better reflect movements in international prices, a government source told Reuters on Friday. 

A larger tax cut could boost Malaysia's crude exports and claw back market share from top producer Indonesia, as well as help ease stockpiles which climbed to a record high of 2.48 million tonnes in September, but traders did not immediately see the news as a positive development.

"Buy on rumours, sell on facts," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia. "There was too much hype and expectations before the announcement, so now people are selling."

The benchmark December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.9 percent to close at 2,500 ringgit ($818) per tonne, after losing as much as 5.7 percent to 2,379 ringgit. For the week, prices posted a modest 3.5 percent gain, snapping three straight weeks of losses.

Total traded volumes surged above 44,590 lots of 25 tonnes each, compared to the usual 25,000 lots, as traders rushed to liquidate their positions.

Technicals showed that palm oil faces a resistance at 2,528 ringgit per tonne and may retrace to 2,399 ringgit, and a break above 2,528 ringgit will lead to a moderate gain to 2,579 ringgit, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.

Some traders said the new plan could benefit millers and planters in Malaysia but may not help refiners much. The new plan could also trigger a price war between top producers Malaysia and Indonesia, said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

Oil fell below $115 a barrel on Friday, as a prediction of a further decline in oil consumption and higher supplies offset concerns about potential output disruptions in the Middle East.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery edged down 0.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 1.3 percent lower on weak demand for edible oils in China, the world's No.2 buyer.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stocks posted small gains on Friday as large caps and stocks such as Wilmar International and Aboitiz Power Corp regained some lost ground, but the region remained wary of a slowing global economy.

Singapore's Straits Times Index edged up 0.3 percent after four sessions of losses as commodities rebounded after a drop earlier in the week. The index was down 2.13 percent on the week, its worst weekly loss since May and Southeast Asia's worst performing market.

The Philippine index closed up 0.3 percent at 5,369.72, after having fallen at one point to its lowest in more than one week. It ended the week down 1.3 percent, after two successive weeks of gains.

Among weak spots, Malaysia eased 0.13 percent on Friday, down 0.4 percent on the week. Foreign investors sold shares worth 88.5 million ringgit ($28.86 million) during the session while local institutions were net buyers, stock exchange data showed.