Trader's Comment: Palm oil futures edged higher due to India’s move to impose tax on crude soybean oil.

Palm oil futures edged higher due to India’s move to impose tax on crude soybean oil. Benchmark Feb09 opened RM4 higher at 1440 when traders began to speculate on the news that India government imposed 20% duty on rival soy oil, while imposing no duties at all on palm oil. This move could stimulate more demand on palm oil and may help to reduce the record high level of stocks. CPO prices merely hit the day low at 1438 after opened and there after continue to rally until afternoon session. News released by Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World, which forecasted that Malaysia’s 2009 palm oil production will only increased marginally, also help lifted some bullish sentiment in the market. Benchmark Feb09 hit the day high of 1493 before it encountered some profit taking activities in the later part of 2nd session. This saw CPO price eased off to hit 1461. Nevertheless, it managed to bounce back again to settle RM44 higher at 1480.

Breaking News-RTRS-POLL-Higher risk of Malaysia c.bank rate cut Monday

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Malaysia's central bank
could cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time in five
years as soon as next Monday, a Reuters poll shows, although a
slight majority of analysts believe the central bank will wait.
Six of 11 analysts polled by Reuters expect Bank Negara
Malaysia to leave its overnight policy rate unchanged at 3.50
percent when it reviews policy on Monday.
Five said they expected the central bank to cut the rate by
25 basis points.

Breaking News-India Palm Oil Imports May Rise as Tax Makes Soybean Oil Costly

By Thomas Kutty Abraham
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world's biggest buyer of vegetable oil after China, may increase palm oil imports after the government imposed a tax on purchases of crude soybean oil, the main substitute product, a trade body said.
A 20 percent duty has been imposed on overseas purchases of soybean oil, the finance ministry said late yesterday. Imports of the commodity were duty-free before.
``There will be more palm oil imports,'' said B.V. Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, in a telephone interview from Mumbai. ``This is good news for palm oil growers in Indonesia and Malaysia at a time when they are grappling with huge stockpiles.''

USD/MYR: in up-swing mode

MYR chart still in up-swing mode. It just breaks the overhead resistance at 3.52 easily and heading to 3.580 to 3.590 (at 2nd resistance) as we mentioned in our 17/10/08’s comment. Its up-swing mode remain strong, may want to try the next resistance level between 3.640-3.690.

Breaking News-RTRS-Malaysian '09 palm oil output growth to slow-Oil World

HAMBURG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Malaysia's 2009 palm oil output will rise only marginally following years of rapid growth, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Malaysia will produce 17.60 million tonnes of palm oil in calendar year 2009 against an estimated 17.56 million tonnes in 2008 and 15.82 million tonnes in 2007, it forecasts.

Breaking News-RTRS-Oil World cuts Brazil's soybean crop forecast

HAMBURG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Brazil is likely to harvest 59.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2009, down one million tonnes from the previous forecast in October, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday as Hewlett-Packard's upbeat results trumped growing fears of a deepening global recession in a day of volatile trade, but much of Wall Street finished lower and oil prices fell.

Wall Street traded much of the day lower but surged in a late rally, spurred by the forecast-beating results and outlook from HP , the world's largest maker of personal computers.

But investor doubts about the fate of billions of dollars in government aid sought by General Motors Corp and the other beleaguered U.S. automakers fueled caution.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> closed up 151.17 points, or 1.83 percent, at 8,424.75. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> added 8.37 points, or 0.98 percent, at 859.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was up 1.22 points, or 0.08 percent, at 1,483.27.

NYMEX-NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures ended at the lowest level in nearly 22 months on Tuesday, moving in lock-step with Wall Street, where U.S. stocks lost ground on deepening economic worries.

Crude notched gains earlier as equities rose and amid talk from OPEC about another output cut, which helped crude oil bounce from another near 22-month low.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December crude settled down 56 cents, or 1.02 percent, at $54.39, the lowest settlement since prices ended at $54.01 on Jan. 29, 2007.

CBOT-SOYBEANS - January down 4-1/2 cents at $9.02. Profit-taking from Monday's gains and a firm dollar weighing on soy. Crude oil turning lower added pressure as did a sag in stock markets.

SOYOIL - December down 0.04 cent at 32.28 cents per lb. Pressured by drop in soy and lower crude oil market.

FCPO-KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures held modestly firmer on Tuesday but fears that export growth may not keep up with ballooning stockpiles continued to grip the market.

The benchmark February contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended up 1 ringgit ringgit at 1,436 ringgit ($396) per tonne.

Other traded months on Bursa Malaysia <0#KPO:> traded between marginal declines and gains. Trading volume stood at 11,206 lots of 25 tonnes each.

REGIONAL EQUITY-BANGKOK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell to near three-week lows on Tuesday amid fears of an intensifying global downturn

Southeast Asian stocks elsewhere tracked weaker sentiment in Asian stocks after Citigroup cut 52,000 jobs and downbeat policymaker comments reflected worsening economic conditions.

Thailand's benchmark stock index <.SETI> fell 3.0 percent to its lowest since Nov 13. Malaysia <.KLSE>, Southeast Asia's best performer this year, edged down 0.11 percent, reversing a small gain posted on Monday, as Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak said the country was open to taking additional measures to boost the economy.

The Philippines' stock market dropped 3.42 percent to its lowest since Oct 30, with the country's biggest mall developer, SM Prime Holdings , 5.7 percent lower after announcing a plan to boost capital spending 66 percent next year.

CPO futures ended mix after recovered from its earlier losses.

CPO futures ended mix after recovered from its earlier losses. Benchmark Feb09 open almost unchanged at 1437, as Asian time NYMEX crude oil halted its fall from overnight losses to trade above $55 a barrel on Tuesday. Nevertheless, CPO prices unable to sustain and immediately fell following US eCBOT soy complex and Dalian palm inching lower. Benchmark Feb09 hit the psychological support level at 1400, which is also the intra day low. In the later part of afternoon session, some short-covering activities began to emerge and sent CPO prices to bounce back. It hit the intra day high of 1446 before it settled RM1 higher from yesterday’s settlement price at 1436.

FCPO Daily: maintain sideways posture

Market has been traded in tight range and moving sideways. We maintain the support at 1331 while resistance is at 1563-1571.

DJI Daily: to trade in range

Range trading extended. Resistance and support maintain at 9794-9653 and 7882-7965 level respectively.

FKLI Daily: uncertain

Market direction remains uncertain following prices traded in yo-yo manner. We continue to look for the support at 863 followed by 803.5 Upside resistance remains at 895.5-910 followed by 927.

KLSE Daily: remains sideway

Market remains sideways with support at 868-867 and resistance is at 905-913 (gap left over since 5/11/2008).