RTRS- Argentine soy area expands as world demand soars

BUENOS AIRES, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Argentine farmers will increase soy planting by almost 4 percent as the South American grains powerhouse moves to bolster world food supplies hit by a year of bad global crop weather, the government said on Thursday.

In its first soybean area estimate of the 2012/13 season, the Agriculture Ministry said 19.4 million hectares will be sown in the weeks ahead versus 18.7 million hectares in 2011/12.

Tight grains stocks after a year of dry farm weather from Iowa to southern Russia to Australia may push prices to record highs as traders wait to see if upcoming harvests will be big enough to stave off a full-blown supply crisis.

Chicago soybean futures have already risen 18 percent this year, with corn up 12 percent and wheat up 31 percent. Sharp food price increases have serious implications for the global economy, driving up inflation at a time when consumers in many developed countries are struggling with rising unemployment.

Argentina is the world's No. 3 soybean exporter after Brazil and the United States. The country, also a top corn and wheat supplier, is key to bolstering world food stocks.

The United Nations predicts global food demand will double by 2050. South America is being counted on to provide most of the increase in world grains production between now and then.

While most industry analysts say Argentine soy plantings will rise this year, growers are struggling to keep early seeding on schedule because of flooding caused by months of heavier-than-normal rains.

"Soybean planting started late this year in Argentina and lags last year's tempo by 18 percentage points," the ministry said in its weekly crop report.

Farmers in the main agricultural province of Buenos Aires have watched their heavy seeding machines get stuck in the mud after a series of storms started lashing the Pampas in August.

"Rains and continued weather instability have caused flooding in fields that growers had set aside for soybeans," the report said, adding that sunny weather during the past week has allowed seeding to start as flood waters recede.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Argentina to harvest 55 million tonnes of soy, 11.5 million tonnes of wheat and 28 million tonnes of corn in the 2012/13 crop year.

Supply from Argentina is of key interest to exporters such as Bunge Ltd BG.N and Noble Group Ltd NOBG.SI that operate huge grains terminals along the Parana River, which offers access to the busy shipping lanes of the South Atlantic.

In its weekly crop report Thursday, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said farmers had so far seeded 22 percent of the estimated soy area of 19.7 million hectares. The pace lags last year's by 15.4 percentage points, it said.

With regard to commercial-use corn, 45 percent of the 3.4 million hectares expected to be planted this year have been seeded, according to exchange data, lagging last year's tempo by 17 percentage points.

Farmers have collected 15 percent of 2012/13 wheat, progressing by 2.5 percentage points during the week and slightly ahead of last season's harvesting pace, the exchange said.

RTRS- India Oct refined palm oil imports down 45 pct m/m

NEW DELHI, Nov 15 (Reuters) - India's imports of refined palm oil fell sharply in October from the previous month, as an import duty hike aimed at protecting the local refining industry from cheaper Indonesian supplies of the edible oil took effect.

India, the world's largest buyer of vegetable oils, imported 61,544 tonnes of refined palm oil in October, according to trade data released on Thursday, a decline of 45 percent from 111,163 tonnes in September.

"Refined palm oil imports fell on fading festive season demand, while the increase in the cost of imports due to a duty hike supported the lower monthly imports," said Naveen Garg, a Delhi-based trade analyst.

A Reuters survey had forecast average vegetable oil imports of 923,125 tonnes in October, with 65,625 tonnes of refined palm oils.

India's refined palm oil imports rose 46 percent to 1.6 million tonnes in the marketing year 2011/12 after top producer Indonesia changed its tax structure in October last year in an attempt to promote its processing industries.

Total vegetable oil imports in October were 1,036,107 tonnes, up from 993,912 tonnes in the previous month, the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) said in a statement.

The surge in refined palm oil imports pushed total vegetable oil imports 17.2 percent to a record high of 10.2 million tonnes in the year to October.

India buys mainly palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. It also imports a small quantity of soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

In 2011/12, India's palm oil imports stood at 7.7 million tonnes while soyoil imports stood at 1.1 million tonnes.

Traders said India's vegetable oil imports are expected to rise for the second straight year to about 10.7 million tonnes in 2012/13, up 4.9 percent from a year ago.

"The higher import projection is based on increasing demand and low domestic supplies," said Sandeep Bajoria, chief executive of the Mumbai-based Sunvin Group.

A population that is growing at the rate of about 19 million people a year, along with an increasingly wealthy middle class, support higher demand.

"I see at least half a million tonne rise in the vegetable oil imports during 2012/13," Bajoria said.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were little changed on Thursday as the prospect of a drawn-out battle over impending tax and spending changes made investors wary of getting into the water, while retailer Wal-Mart tumbled after disappointing sales.

The S&P 500 is down nearly 2 percent for the week, adding to last week's selloff and eroding more of the market's gains for the year.

What had looked like a stellar 2012 for stocks has turned into merely an average year, and as 2012 draws to a close, investors are becoming more inclined to protect the gains they have.

The worry is the economy could contract again if no deal is reached in Washington to avoid the "fiscal cliff" - large, automatic budget cuts and tax hikes that begin to take effect in the new year.

Combined with the euro zone debt crisis, the uncertain outlook for corporations makes it hard to know how much a stock is worth, said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates in Toledo, Ohio.

"Valuation is going to be uncertain because you don't know what the growth will be," said Lancz. "That is definitely not a good scenario for someone to step up to the plate and do a lot of buying."

The euro zone relapsed into its second recession since 2009 in the third quarter as the region was hurt by its debt problems.

Wal-Mart WMT.N fell 3.6 percent to $68.72 and was the biggest drag on the Dow as frugal consumers hurt the company's quarterly sales.

Investors will be watching Friday's meeting at the White House between President Barack Obama and Republican and Democratic leaders of Congress over deficit reduction for any sign the two sides are moving closer.

The memory of last year's political impasse over raising the debt ceiling has also made analysts nervous.

"(There is) uncertainty of whether we're going to have a functioning government going forward. That is a weight that sits on markets right now," said Troy Logan, managing director and senior economist at Warren Financial Service in Exton, Pennsylvania.

Even if the economy avoids an outright recession, there are fears a lengthy political dispute could sap business investment and consumer spending.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 28.49 points, or 0.23 percent, to 12,542.46. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX lost 2.16 points, or 0.16 percent, to 1,353.33. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was off 9.87 points, or 0.35 percent, to 2,836.94.

The S&P 500 sunk to a 3 1/2-month closing low and was well below its 200-day moving average, which it pierced last week.

Data on Thursday showed new claims for unemployment benefits surged last week, while factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly shrank in November as the economy felt the effects of superstorm Sandy.

A flare-up in violence in the Middle East added to market unease as Israeli warplanes bombed targets in and around Gaza city for a second day, while two rockets fired from the Gaza Strip targeted Tel Aviv.

Apple Inc shares AAPL.O dragged the Nasdaq lower, falling 2.1 percent to $525.62 and down about 25 percent since September's high.

Also in the tech sector, shares of Dell Inc DELL.O fell in after-hours trading after it reported revenue that was shy of Wall Street's expectations. Dell was down 2.2 percent at $9.35.

Volume was roughly 7.26 billion shares on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, topping the year-to-date average daily closing volume of around 6.5 billion.

Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 2,069 to 975 on the New York Stock Exchange. Decliners also had the upper hand on the Nasdaq, outpacing advancers 1,506 to 948.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell Thursday as weak data stoked worries about demand in a sputtering economy and countered any bullish effect from concerns about escalating violence in the Middle East.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report released on Thursday.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell, halting a two-day rally on long liquidation tied to worries about the U.S. "fiscal cliff," and satisfactory crop weather in South America,

traders said.

* Grain markets and Wall Street sagged as investors fretted that the economy could slip into recession if no deal is reached to avoid the "fiscal cliff" - some $600 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes due to begin taking effect in January. .N

• Also, the euro zone debt crisis dragged the bloc into its second recession since 2009 in the third quarter despite modest growth in Germany and France, data showed.

• CBOT soymeal and soyoil followed soybeans lower but soyoil was underpinned by fresh U.S. export sales.

• USDA confirmed sales of 32,000 tonnes of U.S. soyoil to unknown destinations for 2012/13 delivery. It was the second sale of soyoil to unknown destinations in two days, after USDA announced sales of 40,000 tonnes on Wednesday.

• Trade expects USDA's holiday-delayed export sales report on Friday to show weekly sales of U.S. soybeans at 250,000 to 550,000 tonnes, soymeal sales at 150,000 to 250,000 tonnes and soyoil sales at 20,000 to 50,000 tonnes.

• Drier weather in Argentina has helped boost crop seedings but another round of rain is expected next week, Commodity Weather Group meteorologist Joel Widenor said.

• In Brazil, frequent rains in the north will aid crop growth, Widenor said. There will be at least three shower chances from early next week through the end of the 15-day period in central and southern areas as well, he said.

• Argentine soy plantings should reach 19.4 million hectares this season, up from 18.7 million a year ago, the Agriculture Ministry said in a weekly crop report.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures posted on Wednesday the highest daily gain since October 2010, lifted by a slowdown in inventory build-up in the world's second largest producer and a demand recovery for the edible oil.

Malaysia's October palm oil stocks inched up 1.1 percent to a record 2.51 million tonnes, but the rise fell short of market expectations of a 7.5 percent rise in stocks to 2.67 million tonnes.

Cargo surveyor data pointed to a demand recovery as palm oil's steep $300 discount to soybean oil has encouraged some buyers to shift to the cheaper edible oil and Nov. 1-10 exports rose as much as 22 percent from a month ago.

"We expect the lower crude palm oil price and the substantial discount to soybean oil price would stimulate export demand in the months ahead," James Ratnam, an analyst with Malaysia's TA Securities, said in a research note.

"But historically, it would take 3 to 6 months for low prices to incentivise stocks drawdown, and hence, we expect any inventory normalisation and therefore firmer prices will only materialise in the first quarter next year at the earliest."

At the close, the benchmark January contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange posted a 4.4 percent gain at 2,425 ringgit ($792) per tonne. Prices fell to a 3-year low at 2,220 ringgit on Monday, but rebounded strongly after the release of the October stocks data.

Total traded volumes surged to 33,855 lots of 25 tonnes each after a quiet morning session ahead of the Islamic New Year holiday in Malaysia on Thursday.

Palm oil is expected to keep rebounding to 2,447 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao based on a wave cycle analysis.

In a bullish sign for palm oil, Brent crude rose on Wednesday after earlier declines on lower demand outlook for the fourth quarter and amid a rebound in oil exports from sanctions-hit Iran.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 edged up 1.7 percent in late Asian trade. The most active May 2013 soybean oil contract DBYcv1 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.5 percent higher.

REGIONAL EQUITY- Nov 15 (Reuters) - All Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Thursday with Singapore hitting a four-month low, as investors sold off the region's risky assets on concerns about the possibility of drawn-out negotiations to resolve the U.S. 'fiscal cliff'.

Thailand .SETI, the region's best performing market, fell 0.4 percent to hit a seven-week low, while Singapore .FTSTI closed 1.1 percent weaker to its lowest close since July 9. The Philippines .PSI and Vietnam .VNI lost 0.7 percent and 0.2 percent respectively.

"Investors are worried about the U.S. fiscal cliff and debt crisis in Greece," said Teerada Charnyingyong, strategist at Bangkok-based broker Phillip Securities.

Investors fear that the package of U.S. tax increases and spending cuts mandated to come into force next year if a deal is not agreed - the so-called "fiscal cliff" - will pitch the world's biggest economy back into recession, dealing a fresh blow to the fragile global economy.

Stock markets in Indonesia .JKSE and Malaysia .KLSE were closed.