Wednesday, October 10, 2012

RTRS- Next Brazil soy crop seen up to record 82.8 mln T-gov't

SAO PAULO, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Brazil should produce a record soybean crop that may be up to 25 percent larger than last season's as farmers plant more in reaction to high prices caused by the drought in the United States, the government said on Tuesday.

Soybean output should be between 80 million and 82.8 million tonnes as yields return to normal after dry weather damaged Brazil's 2011/12 crop, the government said. Productivity should increase 14.3 percent to 3.03 tonnes per hectare compared to 2.651 tonnes per hectare last season.

Brazil's area planted with soybeans should increase to 27.33 million hectares from last year's 25 million, supply agency Conab said in its first crop report of the season.

"This growth is due to excellent prices seen in the 2011/12 season that broke historic records due to the drop in production in the main producing countries," the agency said in reference to the worst U.S. drought in more than half a century.

Brazil has been the world's No. 2 soybean grower in recent years but will likely surpass the United States in oilseed production this season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Brazil to produce 81 million tonnes of soybeans compared to 71.69 million tonnes in the dry United States.

"As long as the climate cooperates in Brazil, we will have a better harvest than anyone and overtake the United States in soybean production," said Safras e Mercado Analyst Luiz Fernando Gutierrez in the southern city of Porto Alegre. Safras forecasts an 82.3-million-tonne crop.

The U.S. harvest is turning out to be a bit better than analysts originally expected, causing soy prices in Chicago to fall 11 percent in three weeks. But global supplies will likely be tight until expected bumper crops from Brazil and neighboring Argentina are ready for export in January or February.

November soybean futures Sc1 rose 0.58 percent to $15.59 per bushel on Tuesday.

Conab said it expects nearly half of Brazil's soybean crop or 38.25 million tonnes to be crushed in Brazil, with an estimated 36.25 million tonnes destined for export. Brazil will likely export 31.25 million tonnes of the 2011/2012 crop, Conab said.

The agency expects end-of-season stocks to quadruple by this time next year to about 4.3 million tonnes, up from about 946,000 tonnes in stock last month. That means Brazilian ranchers shouldn't have to import livestock feed like they did after a drought caused a local grain shortage this year.

Conab said Brazil's corn crop would be between 71.9 million and 73.2 million tonnes, compared with 72.6 million tonnes in 2011/12. Total area planted with corn is seen at up to 14.9 million hectares, down from 15.2 million hectares last year.

Brazil will likely export 15 million tonnes of corn from the 2012/2013 crop, down from 17.5 million tonnes exported in the 2011/2012 season, according to Conab. Corn stocks will likely rise to 17.7 million tonnes from 10.32 million tonnes, however.

Brazil has increased corn production and become the world's No. 3 corn exporter due mainly to farmers being able to coax two corn crops a year from the country's tropical soil. But Conab said farmers are largely favoring soybeans this year.

"Good soy prices ... have wooed growers in all producing states, even with strong prospects for production and trading of corn," Conab said of what would be at best a meager 1 percent increase in output next season, and at worst a 1 percent dip.

Less-than-expected rainfall has slowed planting of corn and soybeans in Brazil over the past few weeks and soybean planting has fallen behind last year's pace.
September rains that spurred planting last year fizzled out later, however, and many farmers lost their crops to drought. Gutierrez of Safras e Mercado said he expected planting to be in full swing nationwide later this month.

"On average Brazil starts planting in late October... It's not a problem for the overall crop size," he said.

Sao Paulo-based meteorologists Somar forecast on Monday more intense rains for Brazil's top producing states later this week as a cold front moved north from Argentina.
Brazil, South America's agricultural powerhouse, will likely produce a cotton lint crop of 1.6 million tonnes, down from 1.9 million tonnes last season, Conab said. Wheat production was forecast to fall to 5 million tonnes from 5.7 million tonnes a year earlier.

RTRS- Indonesia, Malaysia eye joint body to prop up palm oil prices

JAKARTA, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's dominant palm oil producers, are in talks to form a joint body that will seek to support prices by reducing stocks and controlling supplies of the edible oil, governent trade officials said on Tuesday.

Malaysia and Indonesia together account for about 90 percent of global palm oil supplies, of around 40 million tonnes.

Trade and commodities ministers discussed bilateral proposals for palm oil at a meeting on Monday, and floated the idea of limiting plantation expansion and stepping up industry and biofuel use.
Although no decisions have yet been made, Indonesia's Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan said future co-operation would be similar to that already in place for the region's rubber industry.

"We will sit together to discuss our action to drive the palm oil price," Wirjawan told reporters on Tuesday. "We are looking for bilateral cooperation on this issue. It may be similar to what we have done on rubber."

The International Tripartite Rubber Corporation (ITRC) and the International Rubber Consortium (IRCo), which groups senior government officials from top producers Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia, meet regularly to discuss how to help the industry.

Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures edged up on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of a possible export tax change in Malaysia, after having slipped to a near 3-year low last week on concerns over rising stocks and slowing demand. POI/



PRICE IMPACT

One analyst was sceptical on how far the two countries would cooperate, since they have to compete for customers.

"I'm in two minds about this," said Abah Ofon, a commodities analyst at Standard Chartered in Singapore. "If they do come together in a genuine fashion to get more involved in the market, it's going to be a tad more effective than what happened with the rubber industry."

Attempts to boost rubber prices by the three top producers are often fragmented because the issue is very political in Thailand, while Malaysia is a small producer even though it is a leading consumer.

"Even in the short-term, if they do decide to have a stranglehold on the market, they can," added Ofon. "But I'm not entirely sure about how well they can co-operate, given the fact that they are competing markets."

Indonesia moved last year to cut export tariffs on refined palm oil, boosting margins for domestic processors and undercutting downstream competitors in Malaysia and buyers in India.

Late last week, Malaysia delayed a decision on a proposal to cut crude palm oil export taxes to 8 to 10 percent from 23 percent.
Both countries say working together on joint palm oil export tax proposals is not on the agenda, but that both governments are due to meet for further talks within two weeks.

"There are several options for Indonesia-Malaysia palm oil cooperation," added Deddy Saleh, director general of foreign trade at the Indonesian trade ministry.

"We can implement plantation replanting for old oil palm trees," he said. "We also can increase biofuel usage through government subsidies."

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday, led by losses in technology after brokerage downgrades of Intel and other major companies as worries increased about third-quarter U.S. earnings.

Shares of Intel INTC.O, the world's largest semiconductor maker, lost 2.7 percent to $21.90 after negative reports by at least two brokerages. Robert W. Baird & Co cut its price target on the stock to $26 from $32, citing weak demand for notebooks.

The news triggered selling of large-cap technology shares, including Oracle and Apple. Microsoft MSFT.O shares lost 1.7 percent to $29.28 and ranked as the biggest drag on both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500.

"It's a good bet that companies aren't significantly expanding their tech projects at this point," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.

Nine of the S&P 500's 10 sectors fell, with energy the one gainer for the day as crude oil prices jumped on concerns of a supply disruption in the Middle East. O/R

Earnings warnings have left investors cautious after a rally that has driven the S&P 500 up nearly 16 percent so far in 2012, lifting it to an almost five-year high.

Among other large multinationals that have warned about earnings, citing weak demand in Europe and China, are FedEx Corp FDX.N, Caterpillar Inc CAT.N and Hewlett-Packard Co HPQ.N.

"Stocks had a big move for the year. Now people are waiting for more clarity on third-quarter results and fourth-quarter guidance," said Michael James, senior trader at Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles.

Analysts expect quarterly earnings for S&P 500 companies to decline about 2.3 percent from the year-ago period, according to Thomson Reuters data.

At the close, the S&P 500 was 7.9 percent below its all-time closing high of 1,565.15, reached five years ago on this date.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 110.12 points, or 0.81 percent, to 13,473.53 at the close. The S&P 500 .SPX lost 14.40 points, or 0.99 percent, to 1,441.48. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 47.33 points, or 1.52 percent, to close at 3,065.02.

About 5.8 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.53 billion shares.

More than three issues fell for every one that rose in the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, about seven stocks fell for every two that rose.

Dow component Alcoa Inc AA.N reported quarterly results after the bell and its stock rose to $9.20, adding to the slight gain during regular hours. Alcoa closed at $9.13, up 0.1 percent, or 1 cent.

Shares of Netflix NFLX.O slid 10.9 percent to $65.53, reversing Monday's sharp gains after Bank of America Merrill Lynch cut the video streaming company's stock to "underperform" from "buy."

Chinese Internet company Baidu BIDU.O was also downgraded by Credit Suisse to "underperform" from "neutral." Its shares shed 6.8 percent to $106.49.

A number of issues traded on U.S. stock exchanges experienced sudden, big moves on Tuesday before resuming normal trading in the latest case of erratic activity in the stock market.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures jumped more than 3 percent on Tuesday after two lower settlements, boosted by the threat of supply disruption in the Middle East as tensions escalate.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed on Tuesday, with the front November SX2 contract turning lower in the final minute on technical selling and macroeconomic pressures, traders said.

• CBOT soymeal closed lower while soyoil closed higher.

• A warning from the IMF about global growth prompted investors to seek safe haven in the U.S. dollar and sell risky assets including grains and other commodities.

• Traders also positioning ahead of monthly USDA supply/demand reports on Thursday in which USDA is expected to raise its estimates of U.S. 2012/13 soybean production and ending stocks.
• Brazil will produce 80 million to 82.8 million tonnes of soybeans in 2012/13, its largest-ever crop, as farmers eye high prices, the Brazilian government supply agency Conab said.

• Early market support from China's move to inject cash into its currency markets, possibly foreshadowing more stimulus to the world's No 2 economy and top soy importer.
• USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 45.613 million bushels, topping trade expectations for 38 million to 45 million bushels.

• Mostly dry conditions in the U.S. Midwest this week should aid harvest progress but a turn to very wet weather is expected by the weekend, stalling field work. The heaviest rains through next week will be in Missouri, eastern Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan.
• A Reuters poll of 17 analysts indicated the USDA's weekly crop progress report later on Tuesday would show the U.S. soybean harvest at 61 percent complete, up from 41 percent a week ago. The report was delayed a day by Monday's federal holiday.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rose to their highest in more than a week on Tuesday, supported by a possible export tax change, while traders took positions ahead of key industry data due out this week.

Prices made some headway after a Malaysian government minister said on Monday his country will discuss possible changes to its crude palm oil export tax regime on Friday.
"We believe the current crude palm oil (CPO) price is still unjustifiably low. We expect prices to rebound further by year-end, as post high production, we expect CPO price to climb higher," said Hong Leong Investment Bank's Chye Wen Fei in a research note.

But stocks could still weigh on the market for now. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is set to announce record stocks in September on Wednesday. PALM/POLL

"The upcoming MPOB inventory level should see it reaching an all-time high of 2.43 million tonnes, capping any strong price upside potentials," Kenanga Investment Bank analyst Alan Lim said in a note.

The benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange jumped 3 percent to close at 2,438 ringgit ($794) per tonne. Prices earlier went as high as 2,455 ringgit, a level last seen on Oct. 1.

Total traded volumes stood at 31,077 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Palm oil may edge up to 2,503 ringgit per tonne, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao based on a wave analysis.

Indonesia and Malaysia, the world's dominant palm oil producers, are in talks to form a joint body that will seek to support prices by reducing stocks and controlling supplies of the edible oil, government trade officials said on Tuesday.

Malaysia's Felda Global Ventures FGVH.KL will develop oil palms in the southern Philippines after Manila agreed on a historic peace deal with Muslim rebels that could open up tracts of farm land, chief executive Sabri Ahmad said.
In a bullish sign for palm oil, oil rose on Tuesday after two days of losses, with tensions in the Middle East and the risk of supply disruptions outweighing concerns about sluggish global demand. O/R

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 gained 1.3 percent in late Asian trade.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Stocks in Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines edged lower on Tuesday amid broad-based sell-off in regional large caps such as Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co MBT.PS and Siam Cement Pcl SCC.BK as concerns about global growth dented investor sentiment.

Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI fell for a second session, ending at a one-week closing low of 3,065.91 while Thailand's SET index .SETI lost nearly 1 percent to the lowest close in almost two weeks.

The Philippines' main index .PSI extended its loss for a third session, falling 0.7 percent to a near one-week closing low of 5,394.90.

Late selling erased most of morning gains in Malaysia .KLSE and Indonesia .JKSE, both ending the day slightly higher. Warning about the global growth from the IMF weighed on stock markets globally.

Foreign investors bought 211 million ringgit ($68.79 million) worth of Malaysian shares, while local retail and domestic institutions were net sellers, stock exchange data showed.