Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks tumbled to the lowest level in two months on Tuesday as new questions emerged over Europe's ability to fend off a deeper crisis in the debt-stricken region.

The S&P 500 fell through April lows, which traders had seen as technical support, and hit bottoms from early March. The move was part of broad run to safety. Yields on German debt hit a record low while oil fell for a fifth straight day.[MKTS/GLOB]

"For the past six weeks or so, what's been really holding us is the earnings. Now that big earnings are out, the focus is back to Europe, at least in the short-term," said Randy Warren, chief investment officer at Warren Financial Service & Associates Inc in Exton, Pennsylvania.

"A break below the recent trading range suggest that if we get a pullback, we could go below our 200-day moving average of about 1,275 which is down about 8-10 percent from here."

Elections in France and Greece appeared to herald a new era of opposition to government austerity and added to concern about economic growth in the United States and China.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 136.16 points, or 1.05 percent, at 12,872.37. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> was down 13.15 points, or 0.96 percent, at 1,356.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> was down 28.40 points, or 0.96 percent, at 2,929.36.

Market losses mirrored trading in Europe where the FTSEurofirst <.FTEU3> closed down 1.7 percent. French and UK stocks as measured by the CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 turned negative for the year.

Leftist leader Alexis Tsipras began efforts to form a Greek government by renouncing the terms of an international bailout and threatening to nationalize banks. [ID:nL5E8G80YO]

Meanwhile, the threat of a Franco-German split over policies to tackle the region's debt crisis loomed after anti-austerity Socialist Francois Hollande was elected French president. [ID:nL5E8G7EA3]

"This is dragging the situation out even longer and makes it less likely that the progress that has already been made will continue," said Mark Foster, who helps manage $500 million at Kirr Marbach & Co in Columbus, Indiana.

While Foster said the weakness has created some bargains, "a lot of major U.S. companies have a lot of exposure to Europe and we may continue seeing that weakness show up here."

NYMEX- NEW YORK, May 8 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil futures fell for the fifth straight day on Tuesday as Europe's political and economic troubles deepened on post-election uncertainty in Greece and worries about growing U.S. stockpiles persisted, both raising more concerns about oil demand.

Front-month U.S., crude ended at its lowest level since February and posted its biggest five-day loss since October, with no respite in sight as euro zone debt troubles continue and U.S. weekly inventory data was forecast to show the sixth straight week of increases in crude oil stockpiles.

Greece sank deeper into crisis when the Leftist candidate for prime minister set conditions for a new coalition which the biggest party said would destroy the country. [ID:nL5E8G80YO]

Adding to Greece's troubles, The European Central Bank will not renegotiate the nation's bailout package and there are no alternatives to sticking with it if it wants to stay in the euro zone, ECB Executive Boarde member Joerg Asmussesn was quoted as saying. [ID:nL5E8G7DE2]

In post-settlement trading, U.S. crude extended losses after the industry group American Petroleum Institute said that domestic crude stocks jumped 7.8 million barrels in the week to May 4, nearly four times the forecast for a 2.0 million increase in a Reuters poll of analysts. [API/S] [EIA/S]

Distillate stocks fell 2.7 million barrels, countering the forecast for a 100,000 barrel rise and gasoline stocks plunged 5.0 million barrels, leaving in the dust expectations for a 100,000 barrel decline.

Refinery utilization rose 1.1 percentage points, the API said, far more than the forecast for a 0.3 percentage point increase.

Traders await the weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, considered more comprehensive than the API's, on Wednesday morning for a further guidance of fundamentals.

* On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for June delivery settled at $97.01 a barrel, falling 93 cents, or 0.95 percent, the lowest front-month settlement since Feb. 6.

* In five days, front-month crude tumbled $9.15, or 8.62 percent, the biggest five-day loss for U.S. front-month crude since Oct. 4, 2011, when prices fell 10.4 percent, according to Reuters data.

* Oil production from non-OPEC nations will average 52.6 million barrels per day this year, 100,000 bpd lower from the DOE's previous forecast. U.S. oil production will average 6.2 million bpd this year, 500,000 bpd higher from last year, the DOE also said. [ID:nL1E8G89LI]

* Tankers carrying Alaska North Slope oil to the U.S. West Coast are returning with some crude still on board because refinery shutdowns have cut demand, a BP Plc spokesman said. [ID:nL1E8G86E3]

* Iran is accepting payments in yuan for some of the crude oil it supplies to China, the Iranian ambassador the United Arab Emirates said. [ID:nL5E8G84OM]

* India's crude oil imports from Iran declined by about 34 percent in April compared with March, deeper than expected and the first sign of New Delhi implementing cuts in supplies from the sanctions-hit Islamic republic. [ID:nD8E8ET01O]

* Sudan's crude oil production at the Heglig oilfield will increase to 80,0000 barrels per day, from a current capacity of about 55,0000 bpd, and exploration deals for six blocks will be signed soon as it moves to make up for a big loss in oil exports, its oil minister said. [ID: nL5E8G8BAI]

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell for a second straight session on fund long liquidation, with spillover weakness from U.S. crude oil futures and equity markets adding pressure, traders said.

* July soymeal fell more than 2 percent, its biggest decline in three months, while July soyoil fell 0.5 percent.

* Funds held a record-large net long position in CBOT soybeans as of May 1, the latest weekly U.S. CFTC data showed, leaving the market vulnerable to periodic long liquidation, particularly ahead of USDA's May 10 supply/demand report.

* Traders unwinding long soy/short corn spreads as well as long old crop/short new crop soybean bull-spreads.

* Market still under pressure from last week's key reversal to the downside in most-active July soybeans .

* China sold 68,328 tonnes of soy from state reserves at a regular auction on Tuesday, the largest volume since late 2010, as lower state prices prompted crushers to stock up on the oilseed. [ID:nL4E8G816A]

* USDA confirmed sales of 225,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China, including 60,000 for delivery in 2011/12 and 165,000 for 2012/13. USDA also confirmed sales of 40,000 tonnes of soybean oil to unknown destinations for 2012/13. [ID:nW1E8EM018]

* Oilseeds analyst Oil World cut its forecast of Argentina's 2012 soybean crop to 41.0 million tonnes, down 1.5 million from its previous forecast because of drought damage. [ID:nL5E8G85U2]

* Taiwan's BSPA bought a total of 120,000 tonnes Brazilian soybeans in two tenders, European traders said. [ID:nL5E8G862F]

* Favorable U.S. crop weather adds pressure. USDA said the U.S. soybean crop was 24 percent planted, up from 12 percent a week earlier and ahead of the five-year average of 11 percent. [US/SOY]

* Workers at leading grains export ports in Argentina will go on strike on Thursday and blockade soy-crushing plants unless their minimum wage is hiked to reflect brisk inflation, a union spokesman said. [ID:nL1E8G8A4I]

FCPO- SINGAPORE, May 8 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures closed lower on Tuesday, as investors fretted over the growing uncertainty in the euro zone after key elections and the weak U.S. economic data that cast doubts over the state of global economy.

Elections in France and Greece that produced changes in the political scene that may endanger austerity measures in the euro zone and disappointing U.S. jobs data pushed prices to a low at 3,311 ringgit on Monday, a level last seen on March 12.

Palm oil market pulled back before the midday break but bearish sentiment eventually dominated the market, paring gains this year to 5.5 percent.

"Cloudy outlook on formation of new governements in Europe still haunts market sentiment," said a dealer with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"This selloff towards the end is likely to be shortlived as bullish expectation is growing on the MPOB (Malaysian Palm Oil Board) and USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) planting report due Thursday."

Benchmark July palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 0.3 percent to close at 3,351 ringgit ($1,097) per tonne.

Traded volumes stood at 32,797 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

On the technicals front, palm oil will end its rebound in a resistance zone of 3,388-3,412 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao. [ID:nL4E8G82KP]

But palm oil fundamentals look healthy as cargo surveyor data showed a strong export growth in April, which could have pushed palm oil stocks to a one-year low.

Market consensus showed that April stocks should continue to stay below the psychological 2-million-tonne mark, a Reuters median survey showed on Monday. [ID:nL4E8G79FP]

But some traders said that prices will likely not go up on expectation of lower stocks as it has already been priced in.

Industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board will issue official data on output and stocks on Thursday.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, May 8 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets rose moderately on Tuesday as investors selectively bought into blue-chip firms, including Thai consumer and telecoms stocks after their strong quarterly results, bu t commodities-related shares fell along with the weak oil market.

Uncertainty over the implications of the Greek and French elections for Europe's efforts to resolve its debt crisis weighed on sentiment in the region, pushing the main Thai SET index <.SETI> and the Philippine index <.PSI> to a one-week low at one point.

Thai stocks edged up 0.3 percent to 1,231.04 on Tuesday while Philippine shares rose 0.24 percent to 5,242.06 on the session.

The region saw mixed fund flows, with Malaysian bourse taking in 35.78 million ringgit ($11.7 million) of foreign inflows while Indonesia posted $30 million of foreign outflows, according to Thomson Reuters and stock exchange data.