Friday, September 28, 2012

RTRS- China sells 400,001 tonnes of soy at average price of $680/T

BEIJING, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Crushers in China, the world's largest soy consumer, bought 400,001 tonnes of soybeans from the government's bi-weekly auction at an average price of 4,298 yuan ($680) per tonne, the Chinese government said on Thursday.

The interest in beans sold from state reserves comes as crushers take advantage of lower prices at home after U.S. prices rallied due to an historic drought. The domestic market is also expected to see a shortage during the ongoing peak consumption season.

Crushers bought up all the soy on offer and the average price sold was slightly lower than the 4,548 yuan recorded at the last auction on Sep. 13.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 snapped a five-day string of declines in a broad-based rally on Thursday, as Spain's plans for economic reform eased some worries about one of the euro zone's most troubled countries.

The benchmark S&P 500 rose 1 percent, its biggest percentage gain since the Federal Reserve announced its plan for a third round of stimulus on Sept. 13.

Spain announced a detailed timetable for economic reforms for the fiscally troubled nation and a tough 2013 budget based mostly on spending cuts.

"Any information that gives some understanding about what's going to happen is good for the market. It's small news, but more certainty is good," said Giri Cherukuri, head trader at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois.

The EU's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, Olli Rehn, said Spain's detailed timetable for economic reforms goes beyond what the European Commission has asked of Spain. Rehn said it is an ambitious step forward.
Gold stocks ranked among the day's bigger gainers in the wake of Spain's news; the PHLX gold/silver index .XAU jumped 3 percent.

Adding to the rally was a last-minute push by investors to reposition portfolios ahead of the quarter's end, with the S&P 500 on track for a gain of 6.2 percent in the third quarter. Friday will be the quarter's last trading day.

"What we've seen is broadly a consolidation, but also an attempt by fund managers to position properly for the rest of the year, to be in the best sectors," said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI shot up 72.46 points, or 0.54 percent, to 13,485.97 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX rose 13.83 points, or 0.96 percent, to finish at 1,447.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC gained 42.90 points, or 1.39 percent, to close at 3,136.60.

While the Nasdaq led Thursday's gains, it also led the market's declines earlier this week - its volatility possibly reflecting investors' nervousness about the U.S. economic outlook, analysts said.

Apple AAPL.O, up 2.4 percent at $681.32, gave the biggest lift to the Nasdaq. The semiconductor index .SOX gained 2.3 percent, bolstering the Nasdaq 100 .NDX. Intel Corp INTC.O was up 1.9 percent at $23.09.

After the bell, U.S.-listed shares of Research In Motion RIMM.O surged 15 percent to $8.21 after the Canadian maker of the BlackBerry reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss. In the regular session, the stock closed at $7.14 - up 2 percent.

On the deal-making front, Tempur-Pedic International Inc TPX.N agreed to buy rival mattress maker Sealy Corp ZZ.N for about $242 million and assume about $750 million in debt. Tempur-Pedic shares jumped 14.4 percent to $30.64, while Sealy's stock rose 2.3 percent to $2.19.

 
In the earnings realm, Discover Financial Services DFS.N reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations - and its shares climbed 7.3 percent to $39.71.

 
Stocks were rising before Spain's announcement on hopes that China would take steps to spur its slowing economy.

China has severely underestimated this year's global economic slowdown, and further cuts to Chinese interest rates or bank reserve requirements will hinge on any new deterioration in the external environment, a central bank adviser said on Thursday.

 
U.S. economic data was mixed. A report showed initial jobless claims dropped by 23,000 to 359,000, sharply exceeding the decline of 4,000 that had been expected.

 
But the final read on second-quarter gross domestic product showed growth of just 1.3 percent, weaker than an expected 1.7 percent. And August durable goods orders tumbled 13.2 percent, much more than the expected drop of 5 percent.

Volume was below average at roughly 5.74 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.53 billion.

Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of slightly more than 3 to 1,and on the Nasdaq, about three stocks rose for every one that fell.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rose 2 percent on Thursday as tensions between Iran and the West reinforced concerns about potential supply disruptions, while Spain's plans for economic reform also lent support to oil and lifted equities on Wall Street.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended lower after a seesaw trading session as brokers adjusted positions a day ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's quarterly U.S.
stocks report.

* Talk of better-than-expected U.S. soybean yields continues to circulate, pressuring values, and forecasts called for near-ideal harvest weather in the U.S. Midwest for the next week to 10 days.

• But bargain-buying buoyed prices after front-month soybeans Sc1 fell to $15.57-1/2, the lowest spot soybean price in nearly three months.

• Fresh sales to China also added support. USDA confirmed sales of 110,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China in the last day, for delivery in 2012/13.

 
• USDA said export sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest reporting week totaled 799,500 tonnes, within a range of trade estimates for 650,000 to 800,000 tonnes.

• Soymeal futures followed soybeans lower, with the spot contract SMc1 falling to a near three-month low, despite the USDA reporting weekly export sales of U.S. soymeal at 436,400 tonnes, well above trade estimates for 175,000 to 275,000 tonnes.

• Cash basis values for soymeal fell in parts of the U.S. Midwest interior as the soybean harvest advanced at a record rate, replenishing processors, dealers said.
• CBOT soyoil closed higher, with the front contract BOc1 rebounding after falling to a seven-week low.

• Ahead of the stocks report, the average estimate for U.S. Sept. 1 soybean stocks among 17 analysts surveyed by Reuters was 131 million bushels, nearly unchanged from USDA's latest monthly forecast of 130 million.
• Crushers in China, the world's largest soy consumer, bought 400,001 tonnes of soybeans from the government's bi-weekly auction at an average price of 4,298 yuan ($680) per tonne, the Chinese government said.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended off a 2-year low on Thursday, as investors remained cautious over high stocks and the eurozone debt crisis.

Traders said palm oil inventory in No.2 producer Malaysia could climb higher in September after reaching a 10-month high in August, as exports did not rise enough to offset high production.

Prices fell to 2,569 ringgit per tonne -- a fresh low since September 2010 -- before the midday break although prices recovered slightly on bargain hunting.

"The market is hitting new low on continuation of technical selling. Fundamentals are still bearish," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"And you also have uncertainty about Europe on top of all these pressure. Immediate support is at 2,500 ringgit for today and tomorrow."

At the close, the benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange Lost 0.3 percent to 2,607 ringgit ($848) per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 36,301 lots of 25 tonnes each, slightly lower than the usual 25,000 lots.

Futures have lost almost 18 percent so far this year, on track for their worst performance since 2008.

Investor sentiment was dampened by renewed uncertainty over a bailout for Spain while fresh signs emerged that Europe is struggling to find a unified approach to tackling its debt crisis as global lenders wrangled over Greek restructuring. MKTS/GLOB

Market traders were cautious ahead of a U.S. Department of Agriculture report on Friday on season-end stocks of soybeans, which are expected to be at an 8-year low according to a Reuters poll. GRA/

That could kick in demand for palm oil and support prices that have come under pressure from large stocks seen in key producers Malaysia and Indonesia. Palm oil is used as a substitute for competing soyoil.

Oil held steady above $110 a barrel on Thursday on renewed worries over supply disruptions from the Middle East, while the escalating debt crisis in the euro zone reinforced concerns about demand and capped gains. O/R

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 edged up 0.5 percent in late Asian trade.

The most active January 2013 soyoil contract DBYF3 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange lost 1.8 percent after touching its lowest level since June.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly higher along with stronger global markets on Thursday, with Malaysia hitting a one-week high as domestic institutions led among buyers while the Thai index got a lift by PTTEP's share offering details.

Malaysia's main index .KLSE ended up 0.5 percent, at its highest close since Sept. 19, with domestic institutions buying shares for $8.40 million and foreign investors purchasing $3.56 million, stock exchange data showed.

Bangkok's SET index .SETI rose 0.9 percent, helped by a 2.9 percent gain for PTT Exploration and Production Pcl PTTE.BK after the energy explorer adjusted terms of its $3.1 billion share offer, easing concerns about potential dilution.

Late buying helped PTTEP shares close at 161.5 baht, the highest close since July 20.

Buying in commodities and resource stocks was seen across most markets along with strong oil prices. O/R

In Singapore, commodities firm Golden Agri-Resources Ltd GAGR.SI was among those actively traded, climbing 2.3 percent, and leading the Straits Times Index .FTSTI to close up 0.4 percent.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 fell for a fifth straight trading day on Wednesday as protests in Spain and Greece over euro zone austerity measures raised fresh concerns over Europe's ability to get its debt crisis under control.

Investors sold risk-sensitive sectors such as energy and tech, while they poured money into more defensive areas like utilities and consumer staples. The S&P technology sector .GSPT declined 0.8 percent and the energy sector .GSPE fell 0.9 percent, while S&P utilities .GSPU ended up 0.2 percent.

Violent protests in Madrid against expected austerity measures and growing talk of secession in the wealthy Catalonia region increased pressure on Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy as he moves closer to asking euro zone policymakers for rescue money.
Meanwhile, Greece faced its biggest anti-austerity protest in more than a year as international lenders admitted to difficulty in working out how to solve Athens' debt crisis.
"When it gets down to it, there is real disagreement between the people in the streets and the policy makers" in Europe, said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.

"I think it's certainly causing some concerns" for investors, he said, adding, "The market's probably looking for an excuse to have a correction."

The S&P 500 is up 5.2 percent so far for the third quarter and 1.9 percent for September, historically a weak month for equities. Gains were largely tied to actions taken by the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to prop up their economies.

For the day, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 44.04 points, or 0.33 percent, at 13,413.51. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 8.27 points, or 0.57 percent, at 1,433.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 24.03 points, or 0.77 percent, at 3,093.70.

Longer term, the outlook for stocks appeared more positive. While the S&P 500 wasn't expected to move much from its current level through the end of the year, according to a Reuters poll of analysts, it should advance in the first half of 2013, largely on central bank actions.
Also weighing on tech shares Wednesday, Jabil Circuit JBL.N tumbled 9.9 percent to $18.90 after the technology company reported fourth-quarter earnings that missed expectations and forecast weak first-quarter results.
Other recent earnings warnings from companies including FedEx Corp FDX.N, the world's second biggest package delivery company, and Caterpillar Inc CAT.N, the biggest maker of earth-moving equipment, have sparked concerns about global growth.

Outlooks for the third quarter are at the most negative since 2001, according to Thomson Reuters data. The negative-to-positive ratio for the upcoming earnings period stands at 4.3 to 1.

On the plus side for the day, American Greetings Corp AM.N jumped 17.3 percent to $16.82 after the company said it received an offer to go private from a group led by its chief executive, valuing the greeting card company at about $580 million.

Economic data showed prices of new U.S. single-family home sales vaulted to their highest level in more than five years in August, the latest evidence the housing market was making progress.

Volume was roughly 6.54 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.53 billion, even though many participants were out for the observance of the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur.

Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by about 17 to 12, and on the Nasdaq by about 5 to 3.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Sept 26 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell a third straight session on Wednesday as Europe's debt crisis and concerns about slowing global economic growth weighed on oil prices.

Concerns about Europe and the global economy overshadowed any bullish sentiment generated by government data showing U.S. crude inventories fell 2.45 million barrels last week, against analyst expectations that they would be higher.

CBOT SOYBEAN- Spot soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell to a near three-month low, joining a broad-based sell-off in commodities tied to concerns about slowing global growth, traders said.

* The dollar hit a two-week high against the euro and U.S. equities fell as renewed upheaval in the euro zone over financial bailouts led investors to book profits near the close of a strong third quarter.
• Additional pressure from talk of better-than-expected soy yields as the U.S. harvest expands.

• Also bearish, rains across central Brazil this week have eased dryness in some areas, lifting prospects for the planting of that country's 2013 soybean crop.

• Benchmark November soybeans SX2 hit sell-stops as the contract fell below $15.82, the 38 percent retracement mark of the contract's summer rally from early June to early September.

• Spot soybeans Sc1 fell to $15.65, the lowest spot soybean price since July 3.

• USDA confirmed sales of 140,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in 2012/13.

FCPO- SINGAPORE, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended lower on Wednesday, as investors stayed cautious on rising stocks and renewed fears about a slowing global economy on Spain's financing woes.

Palm oil stocks in No.2 producer Malaysia look set to climb higher on strong production, and while exports rose from a month ago, traders said the increase was not enough to bring down high inventory levels, which hit a 10-month high in August.

Malaysian palm oil exports rose 11 percent for the first 25 days of September from a month ago, cargo surveyor data showed on Tuesday. PALM/ITS PALM/SGS

"The export numbers are a non-factor now -- the first 25 days is not that fantastic. We need bigger exports coming in to reduce stocks," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"I believe stocks cannot be reduced in one or two months' time, it will take longer, probably until the end of the year, to be reduced further, then it will help to suppress the drop in prices."

The benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.8 percent to close at 2,621 ringgit ($851) per tonne.

Futures hit a two-year low on Monday and have lost more than 17 percent so far this year, on track for their worst yearly performance since 2008.

Total traded volumes stood at 34,447 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Technicals showed that over the next three months, palm oil would drop into a support zone of 2,387 to 2,415 ringgit per tonne, a break below which will open the way towards a range of 1,899 to 1,952 ringgit, said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.

Cautious sentiment dominates as the markets are closely watching Madrid's ability to control its finances, with ballooning regional debts crippling the government's refinancing efforts.

The country is also subject to a ratings review by Moody's Investors Service. MKTS/GLOB

Also weighing on palm oil, Brent crude oil fell below $110 on Wednesday, weighed down by a stronger dollar, worries over growth and the euro zone debt crisis as Greece faced its biggest anti-austerity strike for months.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 lost 1.4 percent in late Asian trade. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract DBYF3 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also edged down 1.8 percent after touching its lowest level since July 27.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Most Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Wednesday, tracking larger regional markets amid concerns about debt problems in Europe, with Thailand hitting a one-week low after General Electric's GE.N block sales of Bank of Ayudhya BAY.BK.

Shares in Bank of Ayudhya shed 7.5 percent, their biggest one-day loss in a year, pulling the Thai benchmark index .SETI down 1 percent at 1,274.50, the lowest close since Sept. 18.

General Electric sold a 7.6 percent stake in Bank of Ayudhya in a block trade to institutional investors, cutting its share in the bank to 25.3 percent. GE sold part of its stake at 31.30 baht per share, a source said on Wednesday.

Indonesia's Bumi Resources BUMI.JK, which lost 2.9 percent, was a drag on Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE, which closed down 1.1 percent at a two-week closing low of 4,180.16.

Standard & Poor's Ratings cut its credit ratings on Bumi Resources while Moody's Investors Service has revised the outlook on the coal miner, after an investigation into alleged financial irregularities by its parent company.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

RTRS- Asia Oils-China's palm oil demand slows on high stocks

SINGAPORE, Sept 25 (Reuters) - China, the world's second largest edible oil buyer, will not seek more nearby shipments for palm oil despite sharp price declines recently as port stocks of edible oils remained high, traders said.

Refined palm olein, used in cooking oil, trades at around 7,150 yuan ($1,100) per tonne at the China's southern port of Guangzhou compared to above 9,500 yuan for competing soybean oil.

While the steep discount should attract more cargoes, stocks at China's ports almost double in end August from a year ago that has prompted traders to slow their orders.

Also, rising stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia, world's top palm oil producers, have made traders wait for further declines in benchmark Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures 0#FCPO: that set the tone for physical prices.

"Stocks in Malaysia could still go higher in September and October, so although current price discount is attractive, the discount may still grow steeper," said a Shanghai-based trader.

Traders and analysts said China's port stocks stood at 700,000-750,000 tonnes in August, easing from almost one million tonnes seen in May, but remaining much higher than the 450,000-500,000 tonnes seen last year.

China has enough edible oil stocks to fulfill demand for the Golden Week holiday from Sept. 30 to Oct. 7, said another vegetable oil analyst also based in Shanghai.

The stock buildup also makes it easier for China to stabilise local edible oil prices and rein in inflation, which ticked up to 2 percent in August from July's 30-month low of 1.8 percent.

A rush of orders for palm oil could begin in November and December as traders begin to stockpile for Lunar New Year in February next year, analysts said.

But some traders said a slowdown in the Chinese economy -- the world's second largest -- could limit orders. Recent data shows manufacturing in China contracted for the 11th month in a row in September, setting the stage for a seventh quarter of slowing economic growth.

"It depends on the economy of China also. If the economy picks up, they may start to import a lot more," said a regional vegetable oil trader in Singapore. ($1 = 6.3093 Chinese yuan)

RTRS- Soybean price to stay firm despite fall in last week -Oil World

HAMBURG, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Soybean futures remain fundamentally well supported in the near term after poor Brazilian, Argentine and U.S. crops despite the sharp falls seen in the last week but are likely to fall in early 2013, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.

“We expect prices of soybeans and soymeal to be firm in the near term,” Oil World said. “Pronounced price pressure is expected to develop in Jan./June 2013 if the anticipated large South American crops materialize.”

U.S. soybean futures reached an all-time record of $17.94-3/4 a bushel in early September, lifted by supply worries after drought ravaged U.S. crops after sharply lower harvests in South America. But prices fell sharply in the past week as U.S. farmers sold their new crop heavily to cash in on high prices, while new estimates said the drought-damaged U.S. crop was larger than feared. (Full Story) (Full Story)

Chicago soybean contracts Q0#S: for delivery up to January are sharply higher than for contracts for delivery from March, when large new South American crops will arrive on the world market, Oil World said.
“The strongly inverted price structure has promoted substantial (U.S.) selling/harvest pressure, giving the false impression of ample U.S. soybean supplies,” it said.

But quick sales of the new and smaller U.S. soybean crop will only aggravate the supply shortage looming in the U.S. in the second half of the 2012/13 season following the smaller soybean crop, it said.

“A severe supply deficit will develop on the U.S. market in 2013 primarily in soybeans and soymeal,” it said. “The U.S. is also facing an increasing supply deficit of oils and fats but - as opposed to the U.S. feed sector - vegetable oils consumers have already become accustomed to increasingly rely on imports, primarily of canola (rapeseed) and palm oil.”

Trader's Highlight

DJI-NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 suffered its worst day since June on Tuesday, pulled lower by Caterpillar Inc CAT.N after it cut its profit outlook, the latest high-profile company to warn about profit growth.

Technology shares came under pressure after a second day of weakness for Apple Inc AAPL.O, the world's most valuable public company. Shares fell 2.5 percent to $673.54 as the company sold out of its initial supply of the new iPhone, raising concerns about keeping up with demand.

Caterpillar, the heavy equipment maker, said on Monday sluggish global growth was responsible for reduced estimates. Other companies to recently cut expectations include FedEx Corp FDX.N and Norfolk Southern NSC.N.

Shares of Caterpilar were the biggest weight on the Dow for a second day and ended down 4.2 percent at $87.01. That was the stock's biggest daily percentage drop since May.

Tuesday's decline reversed earlier gains attributed to portfolio "window dressing" as the quarter ends. Stronger-than-expected figures on U.S. consumer confidence also contributed to temporary gains.

This is "a market that has rallied and climbed a wall of worry. Right now the market is getting skittish and looking for reasons for buyers to be less aggressive," said Jim Fehrenbach, head of equity distribution at Piper Jaffray in Minneapolis.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 101.37 points, or 0.75 percent, at 13,457.55. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was down 15.30 points, or 1.05 percent, at 1,441.59, its fourth day of losses. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 43.06 points, or 1.36 percent, at 3,117.73.

It was the S&P 500's biggest percentage daily loss since June 25 and the biggest for the Nasdaq since July 20.

The S&P 500 is up 2.5 percent so far in September, historically a difficult month for the market, and recently hit the highest level in nearly five-years.

For the quarter,the S&P is up 5.8 percent so far, with gains largely tied to the latest moves by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate their economies.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said on Monday he expected the central bank to expand its bond-buying program next year to more aggressively combat the unemployment rate, but Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser countered on Tuesday saying that the latest monetary stimulus will not do much to boost economic growth or lower unemployment.

Economic data from the Conference Board showed U.S. consumer confidence jumped to its highest in seven months in September.

Two separate reports showed home prices rose for another month in July, though the gains were not as strong as the previous month.

Volume was roughly 6.75 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.54 billion.

Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by about 11 to 4 , and on the Nasdaq by about 2 to 1.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures fell on Tuesday for a second straight session as concerns about slowing economic growth and rising U.S. crude inventories countered fears about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher on bargain buying, one day after the spot contract Sc1 fell to an 11-week low on a continuous price chart, traders said.

* However, trade was choppy and soybean futures fell at times on seasonal pressure from the expanding U.S. harvest.

• The U.S. Department of Agriculture late Monday said the U.S. soybean harvest was 22 percent complete, well ahead of the five-year average of 8 percent. US/SOY

• The nine-day relative strength index for CBOT November soybeans SX2 stood at 31, nearing the technically oversold range of 0 to 30.

• Soymeal futures closed higher while soyoil closed lower, losing ground to soymeal on meal/oil spreading.

• Traders have begun positioning ahead of USDA's quarterly stocks report on Friday. The average estimate for U.S. Sept. 1 soybean stocks among 17 analysts surveyed by Reuters was 131 million bushels, nearly unchanged from USDA's latest monthly forecast of 130 million.
• Soybean futures remain fundamentally well supported in the near term after poor Brazilian, Argentine and U.S. crops despite the sharp falls seen in the last week, but are likely to fall in early 2013 - analysts Oil World.
• Basis bids for soybeans shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast were mostly steady early Tuesday, underpinned by moderate export demand and a slowdown in farmer selling as futures prices declined, traders said.

FCPO- KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures recovered on Tuesday after hitting a two-year low the day before, lifted by bargain hunting and a strong outlook for demand, going by positive export data.

Data from cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services (ITS) showed exports of palm oil rose 8 percent in the first 25 days of September, boosting hopes for strong demand after a recent global sell-off in commodity markets. PALM/ITS

"ITS showed an 8 percent increase, it looks to be a little bit more subdued, given the strong pace at the start of the month, but it's still showing a decent recovery," said StanChart analyst Abah Ofon.

Another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported a steeper 11 percent increase in exports for the same period. PALM/SGS

At the close, the benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 0.9 percent to close at 2,669 ringgit ($870) per tonne.

Palm oil prices on Monday tumbled to 2,577 ringgit -- a level unseen since September 2010 -- as rising stocks and bearish views by industry analysts at a vegetable oil conference in India dragged on the market.

Total traded volumes on Tuesday stood at 41,793 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Analysts expect palm oil prices in the next few weeks to be lifted by falling yields and a pickup in demand as the market recovers from a seasonally low month in September.

"If productivity falls, which I believe it will, then that, as well, is going to be supportive of the complex," said Ofon, who pegged prices at 3,250 ringgit in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 3,500 ringgit for the first quarter of next year.

"We expect that, as, heading into Q1, the market is really going to spike. There's a lot of things that are happening to suggest that any downside in palm prices is going to be short lived," he added.

In a bullish sign for palm oil, oil rose above $110 a barrel on Tuesday as escalating tension over Iran offset plentiful supplies and concern over the health of the global economy. O/R

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 fell 0.2 percent as record pace of U.S. harvest weighed on sentiment in late Asian trading hours.

The most active January 2013 soyoil contract DBYF3 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 0.2 percent higher.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets were flat-to-higher on Tuesday after rangebound trade as markets remained wary of the euro zone's debt problems, particularly for Sp a in, with late selling pulling Singapore to end near its day's low.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE edged up 0.6 percent after Monday's 1 percent drop to around a one-week low. Coal miner Bumi Resources BUMI.JK rose 1.5 percent, after plunging 19 percent in the previous session on concerns over financial investigation. (Full Story)

The broader Thai SET index .SETI eked out a 0.24 percent gain, led higher by tourism-related shares, with Airport operator Airports of Thailand AOT.BK climbing 2 percent on strong prospect of earnings.

Malaysia .KLSE was up 0.4 percent, with foreign investors buying shares worth a net 16.8 million ringgit ($5.47 million) while domestic institutions sold a net 38.9 million ringgit ($12.67 million), stock exchange data showed.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

RTRS-Light rains seen in Brazil as soy planting starts - Somar

SAO PAULO, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Light showers fell over Brazil's grain belt over the weekend and are likely to continue throughout the week as farmers sow what could be a record soybean crop, local forecaster Somar Meteorologia said on Monday.

Top soybean-producing states Mato Grosso and Parana have each received about 25 millimeters (1 inch) of rain in the past four days and should get an additional 10 millimeters this week, Somar meteorologist Celso Oliveira said.

The first rain in months late last week spurred farmers to start planting what the U.S. Agriculture Department sees as a record 81-million-tonne soybean crop. That was a 10-day jumpstart on planting from the previous season.
But Brazil, which could replace the drought-stricken United States as the world's top soybean producer this year, has still received relatively little rain, given soil conditions after a dry August, Oliveira said.

"It's still not very much rain, but people are planting anyway," he told Reuters. "The tendency is for heavier rains to start in Parana the following week (Oct. 1), but in Mato Grosso, they will only start after Oct. 15."

Somar feeds weather outlooks to local media, companies and government studies in Brazil.

Though farmers are ahead of last year's planting schedule for soybeans, with 0.6 percent of Mato Grosso state sown as of Friday according to the privately-owned Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economy, they are slightly behind on corn.

Only 11.6 percent of the total expected area to be planted for the summer crop has been sown, 1.6 percentage points less than last year, Minas Gerais-based analyst Celeres said in a report on Monday.



CORN LAGS

In Rio Grande do Sul, 25 percent of the corn crop has been planted compared to 33 percent from a year earlier due to dry soil. Rains generally come first to southern Brazil and Corn planting has not yet started farther north in Mato Grosso.

Planting the main summer corn and soybean crops as early as possible allows them to be harvested between December and February, giving farmers ample time to plant a second corn or cotton crop.

Brazil is now the world's No. 3 corn exporter, thanks mostly to increased output from the winter crop. That crop, known as the safrinha, grew by 70 percent this year from a year earlier and the government says 2011/2012 corn exports should reach a record 16 million tonnes.

Celeres expects Brazil's 2012/2013 corn production to be a record 76.44 million tonnes, betting on a second consecutive jump in winter corn output.

CBOT November soy SX2 traded below the $16 per bushel level for the first time in almost 11 weeks on Monday, while December corn CZ2 was down 0.9 percent at $7.41 a bushel after private estimates showed the U.S. harvest might not be as bad as originally thought.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday as a disappointing forecast from Caterpillar CAT.N and weak German data increased concerns that global growth may remain sluggish.


Minutes before the close, Caterpillar cut its earnings forecast for 2015, citing weakness in the world economy. Its stock fell 0.9 percent to $90.87 and was the top drag on the Dow. After the bell, Caterpillar's stock lost another 2.1 percent to $88.99.

An index of German business sentiment declined for a fifth consecutive month in September, showing Europe's strongest economy was moving closer toward recession as the euro zone's debt crisis remains unresolved.
Concerns about a stalling global economy also were reflected in energy and technology shares, with the S&P energy index .GSPE down 0.5 percent and the S&P 500 technology index .GSPT down 0.8 percent.

But the S&P 500 is on track for a 7.6 percent gain for the quarter. Analysts said investors are probably now participating in "window dressing," where fund managers add some of the latest outperformers to their portfolio.

"Hedge funds remain somewhat short the market, and the end of the quarter is coming up, so I wouldn't be surprised to see equity markets push a bit higher over the near term," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist of RDM Financial, in Westport, Connecticut.

The gains have largely been tied to central bank stimulus plans. On Sept. 6, the European Central Bank announced its bond-buying plan; a week later, the Federal Reserve unveiled a third round of quantitative easing intended to bolster the economy and reduce U.S. unemployment.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI declined 20.55 points, or 0.15 percent, to close at 13,558.92. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX shed 3.26 points, or 0.22 percent, to 1,456.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC dropped 19.18 points, or 0.60 percent, to end at 3,160.78.

Dragging down the Nasdaq, Apple Inc AAPL.O fell 1.3 percent to $690.79 even as its latest iPhone sold out. Concerns arose that the company was unable to produce the new phone quickly enough to meet demand.
Among other high-profile tech decliners, Facebook FB.O shares dropped 9.1 percent to $20.79. It was the Nasdaq's most actively traded stock.

In contrast, shares of Google Inc GOOG.O, the world's No. 1 search engine, climbed to a record high of $750.04 as analysts said its solid advertising business and its revenue make the company look more attractive compared with once-hot newcomers to the social media scene. Google's stock closed at $749.38, up 2.1 percent.

In the energy sector, the PHLX oil service sector index .OSX shed 1.4 percent, while U.S. crude oil CLc1 declined 1 percent to settle at $91.93. Worries about global demand pushed crude prices down more than 6 percent last week.
For the third quarter so far, the energy sector has performed well, however, with the S&P energy index .GSPE up 10.6 percent so far.

Shares of home builder Lennar Corp LEN.N fell 1.5 percent to $36.96 despite reporting steep increases in its third-quarter earnings and revenue.

Lennar's results follow a similarly strong report from KB Home KBH.N last week, and together give further evidence the housing market is moving toward recovery.
The PHLX housing index .HGX is up 61.1 percent for the year so far.

"What we're watching is the stocks in the sector recover from a very depressed base from a couple of years ago," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon.

Among the largest decliners on Monday was Peregrine Pharmaceuticals Inc PPHM.O, which plunged 78.5 percent to $1.16 after the company said it found major discrepancies in results from a mid-stage study of its experimental lung cancer drug conducted by a third-party contractor.
Volume was lower than average, with roughly 5.54 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of 6.54 billion.

Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by about 3 to 2, and on the Nasdaq, about seven stocks fell for every six that rose.

NYMEX- Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose last week for the third straight week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles were also seen higher, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The survey of eight analysts forecast on average that crude stocks climbed 1.4 million barrels last week. Six of the analysts projected a build in stockpiles, while two expected a draw.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that in the week ended Sept. 14, domestic stocks of crude rose by 8.5 million barrels to 367.6 million barrels.

Gasoline stocks were forecast up 500,000 barrels for the week ended Sept. 21. In the previous week, gasoline inventories fell 1.4 million barrels to 196.3 million barrels, the EIA data showed. Gasoline supplies generally pick up in the fall as consumption eases with end of the summer driving season and as looser winter gasoline specifications come into force.

"We look for EIA gasoline stocks to post a moderate upswing that could be accentuated by secondary destocking amidst last week's price plunge," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois, said.

Carl Larry, President, Oil Outlooks and Opinions, forecast a draw, however, noting that gasoline has generally been stronger in the second half of the year in recent years.

Distillates inventories, which include heating oil and diesel, were expected to have increased 900,000 barrels last week. Seven analysts polled saw a build in distillate stocks.

Distillate stocks should indicate a small increase that could also receive some assistance from wholesaler destocking as rack prices plunged last week, Ritterbusch said.

Refinery utilization was forecast up 0.3 percentage for the week of Sept. 21, with four analysts expecting utilization to increase, while one saw a fall. Two other analysts forecast no change in refinery runs for the week, and one did not provide any value.

Refinery utilization had gained 4.2 percentage points to 88.9 percent in the week on Sept. 14.

U.S. refined product margins showed a mixed result across regions, down 0.8 percent on average in the week that ended on Friday, Credit Suisse said in a report on Monday.
The American Petroleum Institute will release its inventory report on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT). The EIA will issue its data on Wednesday at

CBOT SOYBEAN- Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell to an 11-week low on seasonal pressure from the expanding U.S. harvest and fund long liquidation, traders said.
* In addition, a weak German business sentiment report and concerns about global economic growth prompted investors to sell risky assets including commodities.
• But bargain-buying and short-covering limited losses in soybeans and soymeal futures. Several deferred soymeal contracts settled higher.

• Front-month November soybeans Sc1 dipped to $15.90-1/4, the lowest spot soybean price since July 5, but pared losses and settled at $16.10, back above psychological support at the $16 mark.

• The U.S. corn and soybean harvest should continue at a record pace this week with only a few slowdowns due to rain in the southern half of the Midwest, forecasters said. Frost over the weekend in northwestern areas caused minimal damage because crops are well advanced.

• Traders expected USDA in its weekly crop progress report later on Monday to show the U.S. soybean harvest at 20 percent complete, up from 10 percent a week earlier.
• USDA reported export inspections of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at 12.119 million bushels, below trade expectations for 18 million to 21 million.

• Light showers fell over Brazil's grain belt over the weekend and are likely to continue throughout the week as farmers sow what could be a record soybean crop, local forecaster Somar Meteorologia said. (Full Story)

• Argentine markets were closed for a public holiday. Normal market activity will resume on Tuesday.

FCPO-SINGAPORE, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures tumbled on Monday to their lowest in two years, hurt by rising inventories and steep losses in U.S. soybeans on expectations of higher output.

Bearish views by industry analysts at a vegetable oil conference also weighed on palm oil prices, which are trading almost 17 percent down since the start of the year, in their worst performance since 2008.

The benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 4.2 percent to close at 2,646 ringgit ($862) per tonne, recovering from an intraday low at 2,577 ringgit, a level unseen since September 2010.

Total traded volumes stood at 43,373 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

"Prices have come to a two-year low, it's not something that's surprising. In the month of September and October, we see a higher inventory, and it's something of a seasonality factor," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"Last year we saw a year-low on Oct. 6, so we are quite close to that."

Palm oil prices will fall further this year as slowing economic growth reins in demand for biofuel, leading to higher stocks in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, key industry officials concluded on Sunday at the Globoil Conference in Mumbai. (Full Story)

Prices could drop to 2,600 ringgit-2,700 ringgit per tonne by the end of this year, top analyst Dorab Mistry, head of edible oil trading with Indian conglomerate Godrej Industries told the meeting. (Full Story)

James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, also told the conference prices may drop to 2,575 ringgit per tonne in the last quarter of 2012 from current levels if Brent crude oil prices come down to $95 per barrel.(Full Story)

Palm oil stocks in No.2 producer Malaysia stood at a 10-month high of 2.1 million tonnes in August, and traders said stocks could climb higher in September on strong production.

Malaysian palm oil exports rose almost 15 percent for Sept. 1-20 from a month ago, according to cargo surveyor data. Demand for the edible oil could go higher on bargain hunting as prices hit new low, traders said.

Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing and Societe Generale de Surveillance will issue exports data for Sept. 1-25 on Tuesday. PALM/ITS PALM/SGS

Other vegetable oil markets also suffered steep losses on rising U.S. soybean output and unfavourable economic sentiment.

By 1004 GMT, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 had lost 1.8 percent. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract DBYF3 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 2.7 percent down after touching the lowest level since Aug. 6.

Palm oil can be used as a substitute for soyoil.

Chicago soybeans slid almost 2 percent to fall below $16 a bushel for the first time since mid-August on expectations of higher U.S. output and slowing Chinese demand.

REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets fell on Monday amid caution over progress in the euro zone debt bailout scheme, with losses in Bumi Resources BUMI.JK sending Indonesia to a one-week low, while Malaysia was dragged lower on selling by domestic investors.

Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE shed 1 percent to 4,200.91, its lowest close since Sept. 13, led down by a 19 percent drop in thermal coal miner Bumi Resources after its biggest shareholder said it was investigating potential financial irregularities. (Full Story)

Malaysia's key stock index .KLSE ended down 0.7 percent at 1,612.38, its lowest close since July 3. Retail investors and domestic institutions sold $5.6 million and $3.5 million of shares, respectively, while foreigners bought around $9 million, stock exchange data showed.

The Philippines .PSI ended up 0.6 percent, regaining some lost ground from a drop of 1.1 percent in the last four sessions. Manila saw light trade, with turnover falling 25 percent from the average full-day volume in the last 30 sessions.

Monday, September 24, 2012

RTRS- Rains spur planting as Brazil gears up for record soy crop

SAO PAULO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Farmers in Brazil's grain belt jump-started planting after early showers set the scene for what is expected to be a bumper corn and record soy crop, producers and analysts said on Friday.

If rains continue in the coming weeks as forecast, Brazil could churn out 81 million tonnes of oilseed and replace the drought-stricken United States as the world's top soybean producer, according to the U.S. agriculture department.

Strong and early 2012/2013 grains harvests from Brazil and neighboring Argentina would be welcome by food importing nations since lower U.S. production forecasts have driven up prices and stirred supply fears.

Farmers have sowed 0.6 percent of the projected area to be planted in top soy producing Mato Grosso state, where planting started 10 days earlier than a year ago, the privately-owned Mato Grosso Institute for Agricultural Economy (IMEA) said.

"There is planting going on throughout the state, except the Northeast where planting is usually done later anyway," Cleber Noronha, an analyst at IMEA, told Reuters.



COLD FRONT MOVES IN

A cold front brought 20 millimeters of rain to Mato Grosso in the past week, not necessarily enough to soak soils after a very dry August, but 30 additional millimeters of rain expected in coming days should do the trick, Somar Metorologia said.

"Farmers who already started to plant should not be punished, given our forecast," said Flavia Matiolio, a meteorologist at private forecaster Somar. The company feeds weather outlooks to local media, private companies and government studies in Brazil.

Brazil has harvested high-yielding crops in years when dry weather forced farmers to plant later in the season, but September sowing means harvesting can begin as early as January.

That schedule allows for smoother transport to Brazil's ports and timely exports. It also gives farmers ample time to plant second crops of corn and cotton, enjoying maximum productivity from Brazil's tropical growing season.

Brazil is now the world's No. 3 corn exporter, thanks mostly to increased output from the second of two annual corn crops. That crop, known as the safrinha, grew by 70 percent this year from a year earlier and the government says 2011/2012 corn exports should reach a record 16 million tonnes.

"Farmers want to get a head start on planting to take advantage of the second crop window... corn can be planted until Feb. 20," said IMEA's Noronha.



UNPRECEDENTED COMEBACK

Local analysts expect an unprecedented soybean comeback in Brazil this year, with weather forecasts, prices and a favorable exchange rate encouraging bets on soy after drought left a disappointing 65-million-tonne crop last season.
On the low side, Minas Gerais-based analyst Celeres expects Brazil's overall soy crop to produce a record 78.1 million tonnes, while Safras e Mercado foresees an 82.3-million-tonne crop. Brazil's government starts official forecasts on Oct. 9.

Brazil's farmers, hoping to cash in on high soybean prices spurred by supply concerns, have already sold 46 percent of the 2012/2013 crop through forward sales.
The country's area planted with soy is expected to increase by more than 8 percent from last season to 27.14 million hectares, according to local analyst Celeres. That would be one of the biggest annual jumps in planted area in nearly a decade.

"A large area planted, favorable weather forecasts, high prices... producers are investing in technology, so we should have an exceptional soy harvest this year," said Flavio Turra, an economist at cooperative Ocepar, which represents producers from Brazil's No. 2 soybean producing state Parana.

"Today it is raining in various places and it looks like the people who haven't done so already will plant," he said.

Corn and soybean prices edged higher in Chicago on Friday, modestly limiting what looks to be big weekly losses. Crop reports showing the U.S. harvest was not as bad as originally thought and rain forecasts in South America helped grains prices ease off all-time highs this week.
CBOT November soy SX2 rose 0.22 percent or 2-3/4 cents to $16.21 a bushel on Friday while CBOT December corn CZ2 added 0.47 percent or 4-1/4 cents at $7.5-1/4 a bushel.

RTRS- Informa sees larger US 2012 corn, soy planted area than USDA est

CHICAGO, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Private analytics firm Informa Economics estimated U.S. 2012 corn plantings at 97.172 million acres, above the U.S. Department of Agriculture's current estimate of 96.4 million, trade sources said Friday.

The firm put U.S. 2012 soybean planted acreage at 77.143 million acres, above the USDA's last estimate of 76.1 million.

For 2013, Informa projected that U.S. farmers would plant 97.537 million acres of corn, 79.872 million acres of soybeans and a total of 57.127 million acres of wheat.

Informa officials had no comment on the figures.

RTRS- Brazil's 2012/13 soybean output to rise, China imports to dip-Bunge

MUMBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Soybean output from Brazil, a leading producer of the oilseed, is likely to rise by nearly a quarter to 82 million tonnes in 2012/13, said a senior official at Bunge, the world’s biggest soybean processer.

Soybean imports by China, the world’s biggest buyer, are likely to fall to 56 million tonnes in 2012/13 from 59 million tonnes a year ago, Stefan Gierga, managing director at Bunge Handels GmbH, told reporters on Saturday on the sidelines of the Globoil Conference here.

RTRS-Pakistan's 2012 edible oil imports seen flat at 2 mln tonnes-exec

MUMBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Pakistan’s edible oil imports in 2012 are seen steady at last year’s level of 2 million tonnes as the country is likely to import more oilseeds for crushing, a senior industry official told reporters on Saturday.

The country is expected to import 1.2 million tonnes of oilseeds, mostly canola, in 2012 against imports of 1 million tonnes a year ago, A Rasheed Janmohammad, vice chairman of the Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners' Association, told journalists on the sidelines of the Globoil Conference.

RTRS- India soymeal exports to Iran may jump 60 pct in '12/13-industry exec

MUMBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - India's soymeal exports to Iran could jump 60 percent to 800,000 tonnes in 2012/13 from 2011/12, as demand in the sanctions-hit country is robust and payment through a mechanism using the rupee is working well, India's top soymeal exporter said.

Ruchi Soya RCSY.NS Managing Director Dinesh Shahra also said India's total exports of soymeal, used for animal feed, are likely to rise more than 11 percent to 5 million tonnes in the marketing year starting on Oct. 1.

"Iran will be a big buyer of Indian soymeal even next year. There is good demand," Shahra said on the sidelines of the Globoil Conference.

India is trying to pay for part of its oil imports from Iran, one of its biggest suppliers, in the rupee, which is not freely traded on international markets, as western sanctions aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear programme have cut its payment options.

The south Asian country’s soymeal exports to Iran have surged almost three-fold on the year to 456,133 tonnes for the April-August period, data from the Solvent Extractors' Association of India showed.

India, one of Iran's biggest customers, has won a waiver from U.S. sanctions targeting financial institutions by cutting its oil imports along with Tehran's other major Asian clients China, Japan and South Korea.

But its energy-guzzling economy still relies heavily on Iranian oil. In January, the two sides agreed to settle 45 percent of the billion dollar import bill in rupees, which could then be used by Tehran to pay for imports from India.

Food is exempted from the sanctions on Iran.

Ruchi Soya is likely to export 1.8 million tonnes of soymeal in 2012/13 against 1.5 million tonnes this year as there is likely to be a bigger crop due to farmers planting over a higher acreage, Shahra said.

"This year we crushed 2.1 million tonnes soybean. We are aiming to crush 2.5 million tonnes next year," he said.

Indian farmers usually cultivate soybean from June onwards and supplies from the crop starting arriving in markets from October.



EDIBLE OILS

Despite good production of soybean, the south Asian country’s edible oil imports in the 2012/13 year starting from November are likely to rise 5.1 percent to 10.3 million tonnes due to lower output of groundnut and cotton seeds, he said.

The entire incremental growth in edible oil imports will be met through palm oil as its discount over soyoil has widened to $300 per tonne on the back of higher palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia.

"Premium of soyoil over palmoil will stay around $250-300 per tonne at least until the end of 2012. Stocks are at record high levels in Malaysia and Indonesia," he said.

Combined stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia at the end of 2012 may stand at 4.5 million tonnes and could pull down palm oil prices to 2,500 ringgit per tonne, he said.

On Friday, benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed at 2,763 ringgit ($905) per tonne after hitting an 11-month low of 2,755 ringgit earlier in the day.

RTRS- Palm oil faces bearish Q4 on high stocks, slow demand

MUMBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices will fall further this year as slowing economic growth reins in demand for biofuel production, leading to higher stocks at top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, an industry meeting concluded on Sunday.

Any support from India, the world's largest importer of cooking oils, will be curbed in the last quarter as its own farmers start marketing product from the summer harvest.

"Stockpile is building in Indonesia and Malaysia, but there are few buyers right now. Offtake from the biofuel industry is very thin despite offering a big discount over soyoil," said Dinesh Shahra, managing director of Ruchi Soya RCSY.NS, India's top soymeal exporter.

Palm oil stocks in Malaysia could rise to 3 million tonnes at the start of next year from early September levels around 2.1 million tonnes, according to Dorab Mistry, head of edible oil trading with Indian conglomerate Godrej Industries GODI.NS and a leading expert on the industry.

Indonesia and Malaysia's combined palm oil stocks could total 4.5 million tonnes by the end of 2012, Shahra added.

With stocks high and production climbing, the pressure will stay on prices, delegates said, with Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) potentially falling as low as 2,500 ringgit ($820) per tonne in the last quarter from around 2,760 ringgit now.

Mistry said there was a 50 percent chance CPO futures prices could even drop to 2,300 ringgit in the last quarter as Indonesia makes tax changes to grab market share from Malaysia, which has been pushing tax-free shipments to India.

Falls in crude oil prices could exacerbate the situation as that makes biofuels less attractive as an alternative.

"I am bearish on crude oil prices. They should come down. Demand is slowing due to a slowdown in the global economy," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, said.

CPO prices could even fall to 2,285 ringgits in the fourth quarter, he said, if Brent crude drops as low as $80 per barrel from current levels around $111.



SOYOIL PREMIUMS TO CURB DEMAND?

Meanwhile, as the major producers continue their drive to reduce stocks, the hefty discount of palm oil to soyoil is likely to continue, delegates said.

"The palm oil discount is big and will probably stay big to avoid burdensome stock building," said Stefan Gierga, managing director at Bunge Handels GmbH trading company.

That differential could cut India's soyoil imports in the marketing year from Nov. 1, 2012 from about 1 million tonnes in the current year, according to Atur Chaturvedi, chief executive of Adani Wilmar, a leading India-based edible oil importer.

But even so, delegates felt India's total cooking oil imports may hit a record around 10 million tonnes in 2012/13 as its bulging population -- adding about 19 million people a year

• along with an increasingly wealthy middle class raise demand.
Soyoil prices themselves could start to wilt as soybean output in South America rebounds after a severe drought last year and the crushing season gets underway in the United States

• with China snapping up the output to make its own soyoil.

"China is aggressively buying new soybean crop of the United States. It is unlikely to raise edible oil imports significantly in the next three months as it will get oil from crushing of soybean," said a dealer with a global commodity trading firm.

Shahra cautioned that things could change if South America's crop was hit by adverse weather.

"I am expecting prices to correct based on stocks. But you don’t know what is in the mind of the weather god. If the weather becomes unfavourable for the soybean crop in South America, like last year, then everything will change. Then prices will rise to record high level," he said.

And it is also possible that the deep discount could favour palm oil and push demand higher, said Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based Oil World.

"Palm oil is offered at discounts of more than $250 (per tonne) under soybean oil. I think this is not sustainable. We are going to see world import demand to shift to the more effectively priced palm oil," he said in his presentation. ($1 = 3.0505 Malaysian ringgits)

RTRS- Global economy, supply to weigh further on palm oil-Mistry

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices FCPOc3 could drop to 2,600 ringgit-2,700 ringgit ($852-$885) per tonne till the end of this year as weaker global economic growth crimps demand at a time when supply rises at a faster rate, an industry analyst said.

The forecast by Dorab Mistry, head of edible oil trading with Indian conglomerate Godrej Industries GODI.NS, represents up to a near 6 percent drop from current prices as more demand has not kicked in despite palm oil's discount to rival soyoil.

"Demand for palm oil in particular and for vegetable oils in general has been softer than expected in 2012," Mistry said, according to a transcript of a speech to be delivered on Sunday at a regional industry conference in the Indian port city of Mumbai.

"(This is due to) much slower growth in the production of bio fuels from vegetable oil and the difficult economic situation in developing countries, coupled with high prices," he added.

Also, with Indonesia adjusting its export taxes to favour the shipment of refined palm oil cargoes and grabbing market share from Malaysia, Mistry said there was a 50 percent chance futures will drop to 2,300 ringgit in the last quarter of 2012.

Malaysia, the world's second largest palm oil producer after Indonesia, has been pushing shipments under a tax free crude palm oil export scheme to top edible oil buyer India in a bid to reduce swelling stocks and retain business.

"This is the best destination for these palm oil shipments and therefore stocks in India as at the end of October as well as pipelines will be higher than previous years," Mistry said.

But coupled with new harvests of oilseeds in India, Malaysia will export less with stocks continuing to grow in the last quarter of 2012.

Mistry said it would be not be surprising if Malaysia's palm oil stocks rise to 3 million tonnes at the start of next year. September opening inventory levels hover around 2.1 million tonnes, according to government data.

Surging Malaysian stocks come as Indonesia's inventories had been growing since 2010 to 3.5 million-4 million tonnes a month, in part due to rising production and infrastructure bottlenecks, Mistry said.

A high production cycle for palm oil in Southeast Asia that started in June is boosting supply, he said, although it may last till mid-December as mild El Nino weather condition could cut the season short.

El Nino tends to bring drier weather to the region, leading to oil palms producing more male flowers that do not produce the edible oil.

"We need to watch rainfall in September, October and November. If, as some weathermen expect, we have heavy rain in November, the high (production) cycle may be further extended," Mistry said.

The London-based analyst adjusted his forecast for Malaysian crude palm oil production this year to 18 million tonnes from 18.2 million tonnes. Malaysia's government forecasts peg output at 18.4 million tonnes, down 2.6 percent from last year.

Indonesian production is likely to overshoot, with Mistry revising forecasts to 27.5 million tonnes from 27 million tonnes. In contrast, the Agriculture Ministry saw production at 25.7 million tonnes.

RTRS-Palm oil discount to soyoil "unsustainable," to boost demand-Mielke

MUMBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Palm oil prices are "sizeably undervalued" in comparison with soyoil and the discount is unlikely to be sustained as lower prices will prompt importers to buy more palm oil, a top world oils analyst said on Sunday.

"Palm oil is offered at discounts of more than $250 (per tonne) under soybean oil. I think this is not sustainable. We are going to see world import demand to shift to the more effectively priced palm oil," said Thomas Mielke, editor of Hamburg-based newsletter Oil World.

The increased demand will help the world's top two palm oil producers -- Indonesia and Malaysia -- raise exports and trim inventory that has been depressing palm oil prices, Mielke said in his video presentation to the Globoil India conference here.

On Friday, benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 2 percent to close at 2,763 ringgit ($905) per tonne, after hitting an 11-month low of 2,755 ringgit earlier in the day.

World production of palm oil is likely to rise to a record high of 54.4 million tonnes in 2013 from 51.6 million tonnes estimated for 2012, Mielke added.

Output could rise to 78 million tonnes in 2020 as higher profitability is bringing in additional plantation, he said.

Global output of sunflower oil in the 2012/13 year starting from Oct. 1 is likely to fall by 1.2 million tonnes, and that should give it a price premium over rival soyoil in the second half of the year, Mielke said.



SOYBEAN TO RESUME RALLY

CBOT soybean futures Sc1 hit an all-time high of $17.94-3/4 per bushel this month, but have since fallen nearly 7 percent as farmers in the United States hastened harvesting of their new season crop.

However, that crop is likely to be used up quickly due to higher prices and that will again create tight supplies, allowing prices to resume their rally, Mielke said, without giving any time frame.

"Soybean prices will resume their rally, exceeding $18 a bushel, probably rising to $19 or $20 or above if any problems occur in South America," he said.

Sowing has been progressing in South America, where output was hit by a severe drought last year.

CBOT November soybeans SX2 finished 0.2 percent higher at $16.21-3/4 a bushel on Friday.

RTRS- Malaysia palm oil prices may fall at least 7 pct in Q4-analyst

NEW DELHI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices may fall nearly 7 percent to 2,575 ringgit per tonne in the last quarter of 2012 from current levels if Brent crude oil prices come down to $95 per barrel, a top analyst said on Saturday.

"I am bearish on crude oil prices. They should come down. Demand is slowing due to a slowdown in the global economy," James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, said at the Globoil India conference here.

"Eventually new supplies (deep sea, tar sands and shale oil) and weak demand growth, led by substitution by natural gas, will pull the market back to earth as oil stocks climb," he added.

Vegetable oil prices benefit from higher crude levels as their use as biofuels, which are seen as greener alternatives to petrol and diesel, becomes more economically attractive.

On Friday, benchmark palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 2 percent to close at 2,763 ringgit ($905) per tonne, after hitting an 11-month low of 2,755 ringgit earlier in the day. Brent crude closed at $111.42 per barrel.

He expects the CPO price in the fourth quarter (Oct-Dec) to be 2,285 ringgits if the crude price is $80 per barrel, more than 17 percent down from the current level, although he sees palm oil recovering to 2,450 ringgits in the first quarter of 2013.

"Crude oil is now the key to vegetable oil prices," Fry said in his presentation slides.

The premium of CPO over petroleum prices has fallen sharply since July due to rising inventories, Fry said.

"Mills must put oil into their tanks every day, regardless of the final demand. This makes them into permanent 'distress sellers' and helps explain why CPO always trades at a discount" (to other edible oils).

The London-based analyst forecast Indonesia’s palm oil output in 2012 could rise by 8.1 percent to 27.25 million tonnes, while Malaysia may see a 3 percent drop in it production to 18.34 million tonnes.

RTRS- India's soaring edible oil demand to push 2012/13 imports to record

MUMBAI, Sept 23 (Reuters) - India’s 2012/13 edible oil imports could rise 4.2 percent to a record high, with palm oil cornering the bulk of that, a Reuters poll showed, as the world's second most populous country fails to raise output quickly enough to meet demand from a growing middle class.

The world's biggest importer of edible oils could buy 10 million tonnes in the year to Oct. 31, 2013, against an estimated 9.6 million tonnes in the current year, the poll of 10 industry experts attending the Globoil India Conference showed.

Higher Indian imports could provide crucial support to palm oil prices, which are flagging compared with rivals like soyoil, weighed down by a build-up in inventory in the top two producing countries -- Indonesia and Malaysia.

"Population and prosperity are the two main drivers of (Indian) demand," said Govindbhai G. Patel, managing partner of GG Patel & Nikhil Research Co.

Indians use vegetable oils to cook most of their famous curries from pav-bhaji to samosa but recycling is common, keeping per capita consumption below global averages.

Increased wealth from an economy targeted to grow at 6.5 percent this year should prompt more purchases of fresh oil while prosperity also boosts consumption of biscuits and sweets made with edible oils.

India's 1.2 billion population is expanding at around 1.6 percent per year - or more than the population of the Netherlands.

The scale of demand is forcing India to fulfil more than half of its requirements through imports.

Despite higher prices, local demand is expected to rise by 3.1 percent in 2012/13 to 17.1 million tonnes. Domestic supplies are likely to increase by 2.5 percent, Patel said.

A sharp drop in the value of the rupee in the past six months has made imports of edible oils expensive and that could prompt price-sensitive India to buy a greater amount of palm oil, which is cheaper by nearly a quarter than soyoil.

"The entire incremental growth in imports will be fulfilled by palm oil," said Dinesh Shahra, managing director of Ruchi Soya RCSY.NS, the country’s top soybean processor.

India could therefore buy 7.8 million tonnes of palm oil in 2012/13, up 12.2 percent from the year earlier, the poll showed.

PALM OIL EATING SOYOIL’S SHARE

Soyoil imports into India, which traditionally buys more than 1 million tonnes a year from the world market, are likely to fall in 2012/13 as it is asking a hefty premium of nearly $300 per tonne over palm oil.

"Prices are not in favour of soyoil imports. It is costly," said Atul Chaturvedi, chief executive of Adani Wilmar, a leading India-based edible oil importer.

Local supplies of soyoil are also set to rise next year due to higher production, industry officials said.

Soyoil, along with sunflower and groundnut oil, are long-standing traditional local products preferred by the middle class, while palm oil is a cheaper option which the government subsidises for poorer Indians. Industrial buyers like biscuit and sweet makers also use palm oil.

India is likely to produce a bumper crop of rapeseed, which contains higher oil than soybean, due to ample rainfall in the top producing north-western Rajasthan state in August and September, said Davish Jain, chief of the Indore-based Prestige Group, a soybean processor.

India’s imports of sunflower oil are expected to jump nearly 50 percent in 2011/12 to 1.2 million tonnes and are likely to remain steady next year, Shahra said.

"Sunflower and soyoil prices are trading at almost the same level. When you offer Indian housewives soyoil and sunflower oil, they will choose sunflower oil," he said.

India imports palm oil mainly from Indonesia and Malaysia and soyoil from Brazil and Argentina.

RTRS- India's 2012/13 soyoil imports to fall - Adani Wilmar

MUMBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) - India's imports of soyoil are likely to come down in the marketing year starting Nov. 1, 2012, as the oil has become more expensive in relation to palm oil, a leading India-based edible oil importer told Reuters on Saturday.

In the year ending Oct. 31, 2012, the world's biggest edible oil importer is likely to buy about 1 million tonnes of soyoil from overseas, Atur Chaturvedi, chief executive of Adani Wilmar, said on the sidelines of the Globoil Conference.

Currently, soyoil is asking about $300 per tonne premium over palm oil -- from around $146 per tonne in May -- deterring buyers from putting in new orders for the contract year starting Nov. 1, 2012.

Crude palm oil imports to India in August averaged $980 per tonne on a delivered basis, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Soyoil imports averaged $1,276 per tonne.

India imports mostly palm oil, sourced from Indonesia and Malaysia, and small quantities of soyoil from Argentina and Brazil.

Trader's Highlight

DJI- NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed flat on Friday even though investors welcomed Spain's efforts to seek a bailout and cheered Apple's newest iPhone that went on sale today, driving its shares to a record high.

Apple Inc AAPL.O, the world's most valuable public company in terms of market capitalization, jumped to an all-time high of $705.07 as customers lined up to buy the iPhone 5. Apple's stock ended up 0.2 percent at $700.10. [ID:L4E8KL3G1]

News from Spain helped lift stocks after the debt-laden country said it was considering freezing pensions and speeding up a planned rise in the retirement age as it raced to cut spending and meet conditions of an expected international sovereign aid package. (Full Story)

The moves, taken with the European Central Bank's efforts to spur growth in the euro zone and the Fed's recent announcement of a third round of quantitative easing, continued to underpin gains.

"The market is predominantly looking forward to the Federal Reserve and the QE infinity that the Fed promised, and the globally coordinated easing cycle," said Steve Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments in New York.

This week, though, the market's action has been muted, with the S&P 500 barely moving 0.6 percent in either direction daily.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 17.46 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 13,579.47. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dipped just 0.11 of a point, or 0.01 percent, to finish at 1,460.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 4.00 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 3,179.96.

Earlier, the S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 1,467.07, while the Nasdaq reached a session high of 3,196.93.

A quick and sharp sell-off in spot gold shortly after midday, driven by a rumor that the CME may raise margin requirements on commodities, weighed on financial services stocks, according to Joseph Greco, managing director of Meridian Equity Partners in New York.

Many banks and other companies in the financial sector have high exposure to gold and other commodities, so any increase in margin requirements would affect them, Greco said.

Spot gold XAU= later recovered to trade up 0.6 percent at $1,777.19 an ounce by 1:11 p.m. EDT on Friday, after hitting a session high of $1,787.20 - close to its 2012 high of $1,790.30.

But financial shares were still lower by late afternoon on Friday. The S&P financial index .GSPF ended down 0.3 percent.

The transportation sector limited the market's advance on Friday, when the Dow Jones Transportation Average .DJT fell 1 percent. Earlier this week, two large shipping companies - FedEx Corp. FDX.N and Norfolk Southern Corp. NSC.N - warned about the impact of the weakening world economy on their results.

At the close, FedEx shares slid 0.9 percent to $84.39 and Norfolk Southern shares lost 1.7 percent to $65. On Wednesday, a few brokerage firms cut their price targets on FedEx stock. On Friday, four brokers lowered their price targets on Norfolk Southern's stock.

The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX has gained 5.9 percent since the start of August, mostly on expectations for new economic stimulus measures from the world's central banks. On Sept. 13, the Federal Reserve announced a third round of stimulus or quantitative easing, known as Q3, intended to bolster the economy and reduce U.S. unemployment.

The market was more active than usual because of "quadruple witching," the quarterly settlement and expiration of four different types of September e q uity futures and options contracts. Expiration can lead to greater volume and volatility as players adjust or exercise their derivative positions.

"There was a little bit of a sell-off towards the close, but nothing crazy," said JJ Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade. "There is not much volatility because the market has been trading in a pretty tight range most of the day, and it looks like most of the players have already rolled their positions over the last two weeks."

Looking ahead to quarterly earnings, one bright spot came from the fashion front. Shares of Michael Kors Holdings Ltd KORS.N shot up 9.3 percent to close at $57.35. The fashion and accessory designer's company said it will probably earn more than it expected in the second quarter as it banks on strong global sales.

Housing shares climbed, led by KB Home KBH.N, up 16.4 percent at $15.26, after the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder reported a surprising quarterly profit and said its revenue backlog hit a four-year high. The PHLX housing sector index .HGX surged 1.74 percent. (Full Story)

Oracle Corp ORCL.O gained 0.7 percent to $32.47 a day after the software maker reported first-quarter earnings, excluding items, that met Wall Street's expectations. Oracle's hardware sales, however, are expected to drop further after tumbling 24 percent from a year ago. (Full Story).

Volume totalled 7.92 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the Amex.

Advancers beat decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq by a ratio of 3 to 2. On the NYSE, there were 303 stocks hitting new highs and eight setting new lows. On the Nasdaq, 191 stocks touched new highs while 28 stocks reached new lows.

NYMEX- NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - U.S. November crude futures rose on Friday as delays in North Sea oil loadings stoked supply concerns and optimism over reform measures by Spain in anticipation of a bailout package lifted markets.
 
CBOT SOYBEAN-Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended higher after a seesaw trading session, turning higher in the final minutes of trade on position-squaring ahead of the weekend, traders said.

* Market turned lower at times, under pressure from the expanding U.S. soybean harvest and technical selling.

• Despite the late rally, front-month soybeans Sc1 ended the week down nearly 7 percent, the market's biggest weekly plunge in a year, amid long liquidation and anecdotal soy yield reports that were not as bad as feared.

• Informa Economics estimated U.S. 2012 soybean plantings at 77.143 million acres, above USDA's current figure of 76.1 million acres, and projected U.S. 2013 soybean plantings at 79.872 million acres. (Full Story)

• Farmers in Brazil's grain belt jump-started planting after early showers set the scene for what is expected to be a bumper corn and record soy crop, producers and analysts said. (Full Story)

• USDA confirmed sales of 140,000 tonnes of U.S. soymeal to South Korea for delivery in 2012/13. (Full Story)

• India's soymeal exports are expected to rise by 10 percent to 5.5 million tonnes in 2012/13 due to higher soybean output, said Davish Jain, chief of the Indore-based Prestige Group.
 
FCPO- SINGAPORE, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures dropped on Friday to their lowest in more than 11 months, posting their worst week since March last year as rising inventories and overnight losses in U.S. soybeans weighed on prices.

The brisk pace of the U.S. soybean harvest and global economic concerns dragged down palm oil prices, which have already come under pressure due to worries inventory levels in key producer Malaysia could climb above 2.2 million tonnes in September, which would be the highest level seen this year.

"The overseas market was down yesterday and this morning the Dalian market was down, so the futures market is under tremendous pressure on long liquidation and speculative short-selling," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Technicals also don't look good as prices broke below 2,800 ringgit with immediate support at 2,754 ringgit."

At the close, the benchmark December contract FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange had lost 2 percent to 2,763 ringgit ($905) per tonne, slightly above the intraday low at 2,755 ringgit, a level unseen since Oct. 6.

The prices broke below the 2,800-ringgit mark for the first time this year and posted a 5.9 percent loss this week.

Total traded volume stood at 37,030 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 25,000 tonnes.

Technicals continued to look bearish with Reuters market analyst Wang Tao saying palm oil would keep falling to 2,719 ringgit per tonne based on a wave analysis.
Latest cargo surveyor data pointed to rising exports but traders said the increase was not enough to offset strong production, which could push September stocks even higher than the 10-month high of 2.1 million tonnes seen in August.

Cargo surveyor Intertek Testing said export shipments rose almost 15 percent during Sept. 1-20 over the same period a month ago, while another cargo surveyor, Societe Generale de Surveillance, reported an almost 13 percent increase from a month ago.
In a bullish sign for palm oil, Brent crude rose towards $111 on Friday, extending its gains from a 1-1/2 month low hit in the previous session, as Libya's precarious security situation and lower North Sea production stoked supply fears.
In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for December delivery BOZ2 lost 0.2 percent. The most active January 2013 soyoil contract DBYF3 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had closed 1.5 percent down.

Chicago Board of Trade November soybeans SX2 edged up, after dropping 3 percent in the previous session.
REGIONAL EQUITY- BANGKOK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly higher on Friday as stimulus measures from major central banks appeared to remain supportive to broad sentiment, prompting market players to buy into recently beaten down market large caps.

Among the bright spots, Jakarta's Composite Index .JKSE gained 0.6 percent, with Indonesia's main vehicle distributor and biggest listed company Astra International ASII.JK rising 2.1 percent after falling 2.7 percent over the last two sessions amid broad profit-taking.

Strength in commodities and banking shares helped lift most other markets in the region. Singapore's Straits Times Index .FTSTI edged up 0.5 percent, led higher by a 0.8 percent rise in commodities firm Golden Agri Resources Ltd GAGR.SI.

Bucking the trend, Malaysia's benchmark index .KLSE eased 0.1 percent. The Malaysian bourse said local institutions sold shares worth a net 110 million ringgit ($35.80 million) while foreign investors bought shares for 123 million ringgit ($40.03 million).

On the week, Malaysia lost 1.2 percent, Southeast Asia's worst performer. Others ended the week mixed, with Indonesia losing 0.3 percent, while Thailand posted a gain of 0.8 percent and Singapore ended up 0.3 percent.